The Ringer NBA Show - How Embiid’s Return Impacts the East, Plus Giant-Killer Rankings | Group Chat

Episode Date: April 4, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos start by discussing the matchup between Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. Then they talk about Joel Embiid’s return to action after his knee injury and how he potentially chan...ges the outlook for the Sixers. Then they rank the teams with the best chances to pull off an upset in each conference (29:42). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely, Chia Hao Tat, and Victoria Valencia Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Every true football fan knows that the NFL season truly begins after the Super Bowl champion has been crowned, and the ringer NFL feed will keep you on top of all the news still happening around the league and heading into the 2024-25 season. I'm Sheila Capadia, and every Monday and Friday, Ben Solac and I deliver Sharp takes the debates on the draft, free agency, training camp, and beyond an extra point ticket. And every Wednesday, it will have dual threat, where Stephen Ruiz and yours truly, Nora Pinciotti, dive deep into all of the big off-season developments, with Ringer favorites, Austin Gale and Lindsay Jones, stopping by occasionally to share their expert football analysis.
Starting point is 00:00:40 Subscribe to the Ringer NFL show on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. And don't forget to follow the Ringer NFL on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and X at Ringer NFL. Hello and welcome to group chat. I am Justin Verrier and standing in front of me. My two favorite colleagues, Rob Mahoney, Big Was. Rob, flying in for the occasion of the Yukon Huskies, both going to the final four. Let's go, baby! Of course, as you know, I'm glad you dressed for the occasion.
Starting point is 00:01:23 I know. Does this hat look really cool and normal to you, wise? I think it's fine. It's clearly old because it's from the 99, or was that 98? 99. 99 championship. But I'm into it. I just didn't realize that you were wearing a t-shirt underneath so the people who are only listening.
Starting point is 00:01:39 Justin has a vintage Yukon championship. hat. That's right. Final four championship, 99, shout out to Jake Voskel. And he's also got a t-shirt on underneath. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:53 With the Yukon Husky on it. You're really thriving. Yeah, I figured like the underwear and the socks might be a little too much, but, you know, just give them a little dash of championship medal, you know?
Starting point is 00:02:03 Okay. Do you have a routine, like when Yukon is playing, uh, Illinois in the Elite 8? Do you have a routine, like, before the game? Like, are you getting ready to watch?
Starting point is 00:02:13 watch it. Like, do you make any special provisions? This guy's not even watching the games. He's just trying to bask in the glow that they are emitting right now. Don't believe any of this act. You know, I just save my energy up for when the games really matter. So when they get to the elite eight, I'm locked in. Before that, maybe
Starting point is 00:02:30 not so much. I mean, that's bringing an NBA mentality to college basketball for sure. And saving yourself for the playoffs. We have to respect it. You damn right. But Rob, you just flew in from Denver and boy, are your arms tired? Of course. But, you know, You witness quite possibly one of my favorite NBA games of the season.
Starting point is 00:02:48 The Wembe v. Yokic, just mono a mono. Please tell us about this. I mean, an incredible thing to witness in person, especially the, like, Yokic's trying to figure out a kind of length he's never experienced before. And I think what's great about Wembe is you can tell when he really shows up for matchups like this and games like this, that he takes the opportunity to play against the best in the league really seriously. And nearly put up the first quadruple double I would have seen in person, maybe ever in my life.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Sad we didn't get a couple more blocks and assist to finish that thing out. But the Spurs gave a championship contender a hell of a game. And that's without basically any of their usual starters other than Wemby. So insane shit going on in San Antonio or with San Antonio right now. Yeah, I've been saying this for like a month and a half now. I think Wemby's most like glaring trait for me is his competitive nature. Like the dog, he's got that dog in him. He doesn't just have a dog t-shirt like Justin very.
Starting point is 00:03:43 there you guys right now. No, but seriously, like, this guy is ultra-competitive and he takes the matchup serious. There's no too cool for school element to anything that he's doing, which is so refreshing to me. And that's what I think is most excited for me. It's like, obviously he's got all these skills and he's got this work ethic, but, like, he really wants this. And he accepted the challenge, and that was cool to see.
Starting point is 00:04:09 Yeah, I mean, he blocked Yokic, I think, four or five times in that game just straight up, mostly on post moves, and you could see Yokic trying to go extra slow to throw him off the timing, trying to hook those hook shots a little higher. He's doing everything you could just to get the ball on the rim to the point that I think he had a career high in dunks, just because it's like, I guess I have to dunk on this guy? What other option do you really have? Watching Yokic kind of try to solve him in real time was fascinating. And like, Yokic did it, and he had himself an incredible game,
Starting point is 00:04:35 which actually made the stakes even higher for Wemby's performance. But just like watching Wembe go through the motions of becoming the superstar, I think everyone expected him to be is fascinating. Like on the one hand, like Yokic is basically at a, like, 180 degree angle in order to shoot it over him.
Starting point is 00:04:52 And then on the other end, Wembe can't post up Christian Brown because he just doesn't have the course or whatever. It's very much like a superhero, like figuring out how to fly in real time. It's a montage. You know, Spider-Man figuring out
Starting point is 00:05:06 how to sling around. Exactly. Run it into some walls, but it gets a little ugly. You got to do it, though. I don't know if you've been watching Invincible, but, like, I get a lot of invincible vibes. I was not expecting you to be in the Invincible Hive.
Starting point is 00:05:17 Yeah, I'm a big fan. I'm proud of you. The Marky Mark movie? No. Okay. All right, no. I'm sorry. You got to talk about sports.
Starting point is 00:05:25 I think the post-up thing is interesting because I think his best way of getting to the rack right now is actually on the dribble. Like, he's actually pretty good at putting it on the floor. When he tries to do the traditional big man back to the basket, it doesn't really work that well. But when he's just like, you know what? I caught it 18 feet out. I'm not going to back somebody down.
Starting point is 00:05:46 I'm just going to use my ball handling skill to maneuver my way closer to the basket. That's actually better, which is like it usually happens in reverse. Usually a big guy comes in the league with some credible post-up back to the basket game and has to learn how to stretch his game out all the way further away from the basket in order to attack defenses. But this guy is the inverse and just everything about his game is just blowing up everybody's brain. He's already at a super high level, but I love the conversation of what does Wembe need next? Do you want him attacking the basket even more consistently?
Starting point is 00:06:21 Do you want him playing with more of a pure playmaking point guard who's just going to throw him lobs? I mean, clearly that's already such a weapon for him. Or do you want not just a back-to-the-basket game, but I'm thinking like a Yao style back-to-the-basket game, where it's not about getting all the way to the rim. It's about getting your base, being strong. So when you spin baseline into that turnaround that no one can contest, you're on balance. And if he can do that,
Starting point is 00:06:44 he's a good enough shooter where he's going to rain in points. The problem is now, like, Christian Brown could push him off his spot a little bit. And guys can certainly poke his dribble away. He's going to have to tighten things up just to be a little more secure down there.
Starting point is 00:06:57 Yeah. But then on the other hand, Christian Brown passes up a wide open breakaway layup to win the game because Wemby is just lurking from the free throw line. That was one of the most insane things. And I know we're going to talk about awards probably on Sunday.
Starting point is 00:07:11 But, man, If he's not on your ballot at the very least, then you're fucking insane. For all defense? Yes. No, for defensive player of the year. I've been thinking about that lately. It's tough. It's tough.
Starting point is 00:07:21 Like, Gobert is an incredibly strong candidate. Still the front runner for the award. Wimby's been awesome, but like AD and BAM have had incredible defensive seasons. And that's just the bigs. You know, that's not even if you want to start getting into wings and guards who might be worthy of the honor too. So it's going to be hard. He is going to be on a lot of ballots, though. I feel very confident in that.
Starting point is 00:07:40 I've just never seen other NBA players run away as if it's like a Michael Myers situation. Like, he just completely changes the game of basketball. It's insane. Yeah, guys are hyper aware of where he's positioned on the floor. I think somebody like Aaron Gordon is just like whatever. I'm just stronger than everybody. I'm going to push everybody out the way anyway. So he takes a little bit of a different mentality.
Starting point is 00:08:05 But, yeah, Christian Brown, like, you know, in his mind, he probably shouldn't be shooting the ball anyway. And so when he sees Wimbunyama around, it's like doubly reinforced. But yeah, right now, man. And especially like even the wing guys who we love like a Jada McDaniels, who has an incredible impact. He's guarding the best wing players all the time. They chew up a majority of the possessions of most of the games that he's played in. And so he's doing something valuable.
Starting point is 00:08:34 But like, man, is he changing the geometry of the court the way Wembeenjama is? I don't think so. And so it's an interesting conversation to have. Well, what we actually convened to talk about here was Joelle Mbid coming back. But unfortunately, I got diverted last night for the Wembe experience. But M.B. comes back after two-month layoff. I don't know if you guys saw this, but on Twitter, they had Juel hold up an I'm back sign. I did see this.
Starting point is 00:09:00 And then also a basketball, which circles me back to the point I made before. Like, we need to just stop holding up pieces of paper. He doesn't help matters because he looks like he looks like. He's in a hostage video. Yes. So it was not Joel's idea. I think we can confidently say that. I'm not sure.
Starting point is 00:09:18 You don't think? Seems like he might be in on the bit here. I probably got to be in on the bit. I really hope so because, and, you know, spoiler alert, I'm about to do a media complaint. But, like, the things that team employees cannot convince these dudes to do in terms of media, that you could talk Joel into this, like, for social media purposes, it's just like, yo, hold this joke. joke gag paper and a basketball and look dower is just like
Starting point is 00:09:43 wow I'm old y'all we'll look back 10 years from now when this is just in Sepia and we'll just think about the day that Juel held up this piece of paper for some reason and a basketball the basketball I think is actually the funnier part of this is the fact that you think the internet's going to exist in 10 years is real cute
Starting point is 00:09:59 all this stuff is going to be gone it's true but Embed is back they win against the SGA list J. Doubless Thunder 24 points six rebound, seven assists, three steals. Was, what did you think about first game back? I thought Joel just looked tired.
Starting point is 00:10:15 He just looked fatigue. He looked like a guy who has missed a bunch of games and is on his first game back. And, you know, the Thunder play had a pretty breakneck pace. Like, it's a young team. It's an athletic team. They like to get up and down. They like to shoot early in the shot clock.
Starting point is 00:10:31 This is like, you know, not the ideal matchup for a center, Joel's size in his first game back. But that was the only real takeaway. I had. It's like, you know, he was given decent contests when guys got to the rim. Like, he wasn't scared of his own body. And if, you, you know, some of the reporting out there is like him and his
Starting point is 00:10:49 team did not rush this thing back. Like, he came back because he's feeling ready to give it a, you know, a real goal of things. And so, yeah, I thought he looked good, just tired. Just a little fatigue, winded. Yeah. Which, you know, it's never been Joel's strong. But also incredibly
Starting point is 00:11:05 understandable under the circumstances. He looked like a guy who hadn't played in two months. He also looked like guy who hadn't read a double team in two months. And so there's definitely some acclimation just getting back into the rhythms of playing NBA basketball. But he also looks like a player who could roll out of bed and be the most dominant score on the court. Like you give that guy the ball at the top of the circle. And there's still nothing that a team like the Thunder can really do to the point that they're running two and three defenders at him even in this state. So he can still score.
Starting point is 00:11:31 He can still draw fouls. He can still be dominant. Just not quite up to NBA conditioning yet. And you could see even the timing too. Like there's a play where Josh Giddy drove. in and lobbed up a floater and Joelle was like a full second late trying to block it, trying to rotate and
Starting point is 00:11:45 block it. He's lagging. Just caught in a little glitch there and it's going to happen while he's getting back up to speed but we know how dominant he can be on both into the floor. Well, I will say if he gets the whistle he got last night, he could do some damage. He tends to. He does. So he
Starting point is 00:12:01 instantly got that MVP star whistle from the officials last night. The biggest one is just the last play at the game. I know that's causing a lot of consternation, but I will say the play before that, he did strip Giddy on the perimeter like it was nothing. That was embarrassing.
Starting point is 00:12:17 So in my mind, that matters more than what happened on the other end. Yes. He had plays like that. I think the things that jump out in terms of concerns are all short term. It's all, you know, he's not quite getting back in transition because he's still catching his breath. Like, you know, it was really like if he was playing
Starting point is 00:12:33 three or four minutes at a time, you could see his energy level start to decline. But once he's back, he's going to be a really effective player. I didn't see any signs that he wasn't willing to jump off of that leg. Right. Which that's what you're really worried about and that we had no real moments like that. I don't see any reason
Starting point is 00:12:49 for actual concern here. Yeah, there was a time he went up for like a really good contest. And when he felt like the guy's body was like near his landing area and he did it confidently and he was fine and he went to go and I was like, look, he's ready to go. It's just again,
Starting point is 00:13:05 like if you didn't watch this game last night, he was literally huffing and puffing. Like, You could see him inhaling and exhaling. So, you know, and it was quite dramatic. And so that's the only thing. And he's got like two weeks to ramp up. And I think they'll do a good job for that. There is something to what you said,
Starting point is 00:13:22 Waz about if you are a big coming back and you're coming into a matchup like the Thunder, this is not the ideal time. You know, like a bunch of smaller guys flying around the court, swatting away up like rebounds, hustling as hard as the Hunter Hustle. It's a tough thing to do as a big. I think if you are Joelle and B,
Starting point is 00:13:39 The ideal situation is you come back against a fairly traditional big. A NARCH. You know, perfect example. You come back against a NERC. You know all the moves. You know all the steps. You don't have to move around a ton to get your shots off. The Thunder, though, are a different sort of challenge, even without Shay and J. Dub in there.
Starting point is 00:13:57 And honestly, I thought the Thunder had a really good shot to at least tie this game. And I have no way to explain how Isaiah Joe, one of the best shooters in the league, just airballs, like potential game tying three. Just a couple of big shots in a thing. then missed another one after they got it back. And then Jay Will also missed a pretty good shot that could have tied the game. So the Sixers getting out by the skin of their teeth. But they also didn't have their full compliment of players. No Maxi.
Starting point is 00:14:20 No Maxi. No De Anthony Melton. It was shocking seeing this. I'm like, oh, this is Kyle Lowry's first time playing with Joelle and Bede. Oh, wait. This is Campaign's first time playing with Joel. And Bid. Oh, wait, this is Buddy Fields' first time playing with Joel and B. Even Ubrey, like, was out for a long stretch.
Starting point is 00:14:34 Yeah. He was. I forgot about the Ubrey saga. That seems like three seasons. Oh my God. I will say, though, it seemed like the chemistry was already there in a lot of cases. Like, Lowry, for instance, it felt like they've been playing for years. And maybe that's just because Lowry is the steady vet that, like, is able to do that.
Starting point is 00:14:50 But I also think it's helpful that everything goes through Joel Embed. Like, everything is going to go through Joel Embed. And so there really isn't much of a learning curve because it's basically, like, pass it into the big guy. He's going to kick it out to you first year. Find an empty spot. Go fill it. Well, you say that, but if it's a young guard, there is a learning curve. Sure.
Starting point is 00:15:05 And that's the benefit of Kyle Lowry. He's like, that's a dude who knows how to throw a post entry pass. That's a dude who, when Joel kicks out of the post to him, he's going to swing it. He's going to make a smart play out of it. I did like their chemistry. I thought that bode really well for those, like, combination, second quarter, like, Joel and the bench type lineups that the Sixers are going to have to roll out at some points. Like, he and Lowry can work well together. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:27 Ian Healed, I think it's probably going to take a little bit of time, but that could be dynamic. I mean, we saw what Heald did for Halliburton and what's happening to Halliburton without Heald. So. So he'll be doing a little bit too much dribbling for my liking in this game. He's been doing that as a sixer. I got to be honest with you. It's just like, guys, what is happening? But yeah, I think he's going to be a great addition.
Starting point is 00:15:48 Again, if they can figure out what their go-toes are, the counters, more specifically when it gets to the playoffs. And just health, generally. Yeah. So there's really two questions here long-term for the Sixers. Or just through the stretch of this season. So it's whether or not they can get to the six-seat. Right now they're an eighth. and whether or not they could actually make a difference in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:16:09 So currently Zach Cram's odd machine on the ringer.com, go check that out. Has them projected to stay an eighth. But there are two games back of Indy, a game and a half of the heat. So where do we think they're going to end up? I think they have what? Six games to play. So do you think that they can make a jump here? Or are you expecting them to just stay in?
Starting point is 00:16:30 They're going to be an eight. I think it's overwhelmingly likely given their schedule, given the schedule of the heat and the Pacers, this is where they're going to be. And it's a really interesting place when we think about the teams at the top of the East. If you're the Celtics, for example, I don't think you were counting on a Joelle and Bede first round matchup,
Starting point is 00:16:48 even if he is kind of working his way back, even if Maxie or Melton or we'll see what the overall state of the Sixers is at that point, that's a lot to handle relative to who you might have expected to be in the eighth seat in the East. Yeah, like the Pacers have been so up and down of recent, but the bad teams in the NBA are so freaking bad. It's hard to bet against them just getting through this stretch
Starting point is 00:17:12 and being completely fine. So, yeah, I tend to think they're going to stay in that spot. But, you know, I feel like they have a great shot of getting out of the plan. Even if they lose that first game, like, bottom of the east is, huh. If we're doing winners and losers of Joel and Bede's return, are we? No, but I'm going to pretend that we are. Okay. The Celtics, number one, with the bullet.
Starting point is 00:17:34 As far as losers? Losers. Sure. Because they just had like a historic season. Yeah. Absolutely decimated. That's fair. 78.7 win percentage.
Starting point is 00:17:44 They are cruising in the east right now. They're 12 games up on the Milwaukee box and the bucks aren't bad. So would they rather face the heat or the Sixers? That's my question. I think for one, they're going to have to play one of them most likely unless the Bulls or the Hawks pull off a miracle. I'd rather play the Sixers. To be honest, because Joel's hurt because he's coming back from an injury because he's like
Starting point is 00:18:04 got a bunch of new teammates that he has to work in. Because they weren't like this world beating team anyway. Even when he was healthy, he was playing at a, you know, insane level over a point per minute on his way to a second MVP. But like, I don't think you see this six team and like, oh, my God, I can't do this against them. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:18:24 I think they'd much rather play them than the heat. Well, the answer is door number three, which is right now the Pacers are in six. if the heat catch them and the Pacers slide into the play in, I think Pacers are good, but... No, that's the perfect match. They're not hard to play against in the way that the Heat are
Starting point is 00:18:40 or that Joelle Embed is. Like, it's a softer matchup. That front line is mint-meet. The same Vegas, unfortunately, for the Pacers. But how would you answer the question of heat or Sixers for the Celtics? I think... I feel the same way. I think the Celtics, look,
Starting point is 00:18:57 matching up with Embed is tough and is a challenge, and would be a very... unique like scouting opportunity and strategy opportunity for the Celtics. But you look at the rest of that team and what they've been able to do or not do in Joel's absence. Plus you look at a player like Maxie who is explosive, but I think can be contained by really elite teams. You can you can push Maxi's playmaking in a way that overstretches him and puts him beat on an island. It forces him to do a lot at a time where he's already coming back from injury. I don't think anybody wants to play the heat.
Starting point is 00:19:29 Whatever you may think of Miami's season, I'm not. walking into that trap again. We know exactly who those guys are and we know that it doesn't even matter which players they have in or out of the lineup at a given time. They are going to be competitive and they're going to challenge you on the grounds of what you do best. And I don't think the Celtics want that noise.
Starting point is 00:19:45 I like this quote from Josh Hart the other day on the heat talking about Jimmy Butler. Jimmy kind of does side quest during the year until about April. And we are in April and they're kind of turning it on here. There's enough signs that there might be still that sort of heat team from last playoffs.
Starting point is 00:20:01 in there. I will say, though, if I'm the Celtics, I tend to agree with you guys, but there is something about, like, maybe vanquishing your demons from the past playoffs in order to get over that hump. It's good narrative sense, but do you want to go through it? It's good for the Netflix DVD. Well, it's going to help them, because aren't they doing one of those? The Celtics? I think the Celtics are doing like a day. It's a big fate, huh? So, I mean, okay, so same question with the
Starting point is 00:20:27 books, the other team who might get the other half of this. if you're the Bucks, do you want the heater or the Sixers? I mean, this is a similar question. Do you, they both need to vanquish the heat? I don't. I think the Bucks would rather play the Sixers too. I think so, too.
Starting point is 00:20:42 I just think they're just so much less dynamic as a team. Obviously, I don't think Jimmy or Bam on Joel's level. Even a hobble, Joel presents more problems. But again, like, we got to remember in the playoffs, Joella Beat is yet to be this you know, 37 point per game
Starting point is 00:21:03 monster ever once. So I'm taking that into consideration. I see them as a weaker opponent. Again, he's coming back from an injury, new teammates, less talented than last year, no matter what you want to say about James Arden, I think they're this more, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:19 susceptible team. He's also yet to be a game-destroying defensive anchor in the playoffs. He's a good, impactful defender. But for me, the litmus test of this is which of these two teams, teams is going to fuck up what we do. And it's the heat. The answer's always the heat.
Starting point is 00:21:34 Yes. So in a broader question here, which I think is probably the one that's a little bit more telling. So you have the Sixer team. They're going to have like, what, two weeks to figure this stuff out with Joel? It's a good amount of time. That's like a good petri dish to at least get back into a certain rhythm. Which teams would you say are better in the East than them?
Starting point is 00:21:56 So we got the Celtics. We got the bucks. If I'm saying a healthy MB can beat everyone But is it Celtics bucks and it stops there Are we saying the calves? I guess does it matter? Because if they can't beat the Celtics or the bucks
Starting point is 00:22:12 They're not going anywhere I'm just thinking like power ranking wise He's just saying it's a third East team And I would say But then like we don't do we still Do we know what's happening with Julius Randall? It sounds they are operating under the assumption That Randall is out
Starting point is 00:22:26 And that OG is probably going to be out The whole season that's that's that's it sounds based on the quotes coming out of the team that seems to be their assumption so i'll give you this specific so oj has missed eight straight his injury was recently changed from a tennis elbow from injury management to a tennis elbow oh wow so we'll see okay uh that's not good that it's actually getting a diagnosis he'd be a sick tennis player though i would i would love to see that he just probably would never play that as well uh julius randall 29 games missed at this point in a row uh tip says he's not uh he he isn't confident that randall is could hold up to play as physical as he
Starting point is 00:22:58 wants to. So, yeah, the Knicks are done. It's disappointing. Yeah, they were the little engine that could, but like, and we love Jalen Brunson, but he can't just post up his way into playoff success. The Cavs obviously have the talent of a team that you would think should be better than Philadelphia should. I don't, damn, I don't really got the confidence in them.
Starting point is 00:23:26 I guess by default, man, I would. probably take the Sixers as the third best team, because I certainly don't think the Pacers with this version of Halliburton operating this way is that team. So you might be right about that. It's just I also wouldn't be shocked if Philly lost in the series that they played against the Sixers or they played against the Cavs or even the Knicks, to be honest. I wouldn't be shocked that they lost to that team. So, yeah, I mean, I got respect for Joelle, what he's a earlier this season was so historic. Like anything even approaching that is so much far beyond what the Knicks can produce,
Starting point is 00:24:07 what the Cavs can produce. But, you know, all the other context is tough. This is, it really is where you want to give Cleveland the benefit of the doubt, but they just haven't played that way altogether. They don't have any momentum or rhythm with all their guys in the lineup that would make you believe in that team. Did you see the Donovan Mitchell quotes recently about his future? They're not great. They haven't been great all season.
Starting point is 00:24:30 Can you guys give it to me? What did he say recently? I think Dan Gilbert came out and was like... Yeah, Gilbert was like, we felt confident. He's going to do the extension. It's like, come on. This is going to happen. I've always retained my superstar players in the past.
Starting point is 00:24:43 Duh. I think Donovan ran away from that question. Like Christian Brown ran away from Webby. Jeez. Yes. So business decision. Yes. So he's going to deal with it when it comes to it.
Starting point is 00:24:54 You know, that sort of... Okay. So no voter. vote of confidence for the organization for the fan base, for the city, the great city of Cleveland. The land. The land. Yes.
Starting point is 00:25:07 So I don't have much hope that he'll be there past this off season, but I don't know how much that affects them this year. I would say the Sixers on paper look good, but it's just hard to know what you're going to get from the need. On paper, they do have a really good team. If I was guaranteed that everyone was going to be more or less healthy, I would feel
Starting point is 00:25:24 pretty good. But even Anthony Melton's injury worries me. Like, they're just not deep enough to accommodate the number of guys who are out right now. And I know Maxi's injury seems relatively short term. I think it's mostly soreness. Seems relatively precautionary. Get him back in there. The team looks very different
Starting point is 00:25:40 with Joelle. I just don't know. I have a hard time, even with the bucks on some nights. And this is really the overwhelming case for the Celtics. They're an easy team to feel doubt about, given their track record over the longer term. But who in the East is really
Starting point is 00:25:55 in a position to upset the Apple Card here? Nobody's looked like giant killers in weeks. I think the next stretch when they first got OG was like, wow, this is going to be a tough team. Outside of that, no, nobody, because the freaking, look, they didn't play. What's good to say? Brooke Lopez didn't play. We get it. All of those caveats.
Starting point is 00:26:23 They're not really playing for anything. Realistically, I guess they're playing for the two seed. But, like, not really. But losing to the Wizards, even on the road, even for a veteran team who's just like, oh, we have one eye on the playoffs. It's just like, y'all haven't been the kind of team this year that gets to just take a night off
Starting point is 00:26:42 because you're just so good and above competition in the regular season. So that's troubling. Doc Rivers, he's, you know, he said he's watching everybody from the team to the, like, the training personnel. Like, he said he's watching the, entire organization how they handle
Starting point is 00:26:59 road trips and they're not approaching it in a professional fashion. What's going on in Milwaukee? Because Janus was doing the same thing earlier this season whenever he would say like, we got to be better. It's like I'm talking about down to the strength guys, down to the equipment guys. I understand like a full organizational
Starting point is 00:27:16 call out, but I don't think the equipment guys are the strength guys deserve all this. I don't. Yeah, they haven't been inspiring confidence. And again, I hear the excuses. I hear the like, look, We're a veteran crew. All of these guys have been in the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:27:32 have made deep playoff runs before. I would argue all of you guys have choked before too. But like, you know, like whatever. We're just concentrating on being healthy, getting to the playoffs healthy in one hole, you know, and we're going to take care of our business. But it's just like, y'all, y'all are a new group.
Starting point is 00:27:49 And you haven't shown, you know, a propensity to be consistent, you know, all the time. And so that's definitely troubling. You have to earn the right to sleep on the wizards. Come on, man. They haven't earned it. Exactly. I mean, the pistons don't even lose to the wizards.
Starting point is 00:28:02 That's what I'm saying. It's tough. So, I mean, the Bucks have been a completely different team when Dame, Yannis, and Chris Middleton play. Yes. But still, come on. It's still. It's the Zards. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:14 So, I mean, the Sixers, like, the pathways there, if Embed can get it together. But I guess we'll see. Bet the NBA with a no-sweat-sweat-game parlight from Fandle. Every Thursday with TNT Thursdays. It doesn't mean. matter if you're new to FanDuel or already have an account, you'll get bonus bets back if your same game parley doesn't win on any NBA on TNT game. NBA same game parlays are the perfect way to combine your bets for a chance to score a bigger payday. So we are looking at Wednesday night's
Starting point is 00:28:44 slate. We're going to go with the Charlotte Hornets. You're damn right. The Charlotte Hornets minus one at home against the Portland Trailblazers. Honestly, just bet against the Trailblazers. At this point, they're just not playing a lot of guys that they should be playing. And the Hornets, got rid of Steve Clifford. So maybe there's a little bit of a new coach bump there. You can ride to a win, Hornets minus one. However you want to play, just head to Fanduel.com slash ringer MBA
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Starting point is 00:29:28 three-leg parlay required. Refund issued as non-witrable, bonus betch which expired seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fanduel.com. Why don't we pivot to our second segment here?
Starting point is 00:29:45 I guess third, technically. We're calling this the giant killer rankings. I don't even know if this is a pivot. We're just kind of expanding on the idea we're talking about with the Sixers. Beautiful. I love it. What an entry point.
Starting point is 00:29:57 So the stick here is, so every team that is below the four seed, so five to ten in both conferences, we're going to basically power rank them on their ability to pull off an upset in the playoffs. Yeah. Which is like typically this is an NCAA thing, so that's the tie in here. Giant killer, you know, you take down the mighty Dukes, the Yukons, perhaps. The Blue Bloods. Good Lord. You're just going to be insufferable this whole time, aren't you? I mean, just wait until they win this weekend.
Starting point is 00:30:29 I'm not so ready for this to be over. So, yeah, anything we need to go over? Are we even including the East 4-5? Right now, the Knicks and the Magic are basically tied. It's a tough one. I would assume, like, whoever ends up as the five is basically the number one in our giant killer rankings. Like, that feels like a coin-flip series to me.
Starting point is 00:30:48 Well, we're calling the East 4-5, the five winning a giant killer. I mean, they technically fit the bill. I will say that in Cram's odds, the magic finish fifth. And they feel more like a low seed upset candidate to upset the bigger seed than the Knicks do. But I don't know. You're right. It doesn't really fit the spirit of the exercise. Not so much.
Starting point is 00:31:10 But I mean, it's going to be a gutsy, tough-ass series. And I will love watching Jalen Brunton try to score amid all the trees. Like Orlando's defense, like one of the most resilient teams in the Knicks and one of the best defensive teams in the magic. That's going to be a fun series, even if it's one that's kind of dragged through the mud. Yeah. Why don't we start at number one? Wise, do you want to go first? Yeah, I mean, it's obviously the Dallas Mavericks.
Starting point is 00:31:35 They have them one. The way they've been playing the last few weeks has been so encouraging, specifically because of what they're doing on defense. That's always been the worry they've had Luca and Kyrie in there. We've all understood that they're going to be able to score no matter what. but the question was, can they guard people? And the Gafford thing, trade has worked. I was very high on that, if you guys will remember.
Starting point is 00:32:04 The Daniel Gafford Victory Lab. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Derek Jones is like their ace defender. He's guarding their best guy, one through four. PJ Washington has been better than he was in Charlotte. I don't know that he's like, you know, Scotty Pippin yet. But, like, he's, you know, it's just. Horace Grant, maybe.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Maybe some Morris Grant for sure Maybe some Randy Brown Who knows I just think The theory of how you build this thing around Luca was always like These ranger guys
Starting point is 00:32:39 Who can be switchable Who can guard the hell out of people So that Luca's not put in compromise Positions on that end of the floor And aren't complete zeros On offense And now they're able to deemphasize Tim Hardaway Jr., which I think is very important for their defense.
Starting point is 00:32:57 And yeah, they got Luca. They're guarding people. Luca, if anybody can get hot, average 40 in a playoff series. I think specifically against, like, a team like Denver, like they don't necessarily have the guy. Even if you want to say Gordon might be the guy, the length, the strength to guard a Luca. I think Luca just sees what they do on defense.
Starting point is 00:33:20 It feels like, yo, I can attack this thing. with the past specifically. So I think Dallas has to be the number one giant killer on the board when you consider their recent play and their personnel. The formula just seems very familiar
Starting point is 00:33:36 to their Western Conference finals run, a defense that it may not be as good in the regular season as that group was, but it's kind of triangulated between Derek Jones and Gafford and lively when he's healthy in Washington. They have enough good defenders that it makes sense.
Starting point is 00:33:51 And you have the, the best player on the floor corollary with them in a lot of these matchups. I think the most important thing for Dallas, they're basically locked into the five. So they don't have to worry about the kind of one, two, three across the top of the West. All three of those teams are going to be really tough. And I think they match up pretty well with the Clippers. And they have a chance to overtake the Clippers if L.A. kind of drops the rope here at the end of the season. So they don't have to worry about the play-in.
Starting point is 00:34:16 They don't have to worry about the elite teams. They just have to worry about one of the messiest teams over the last month. in the clippers who have been as impressive and reliable as the Mavs have been on defense, the clippers have been a disaster. The 30th, 29th in defense. Can't do anything on that end right now. And then next up could be the Timberwolves
Starting point is 00:34:34 or whoever comes out of the play-in. So it's aligning nicely if the bracket stays the way it is. I mean, this exercise was built for Luca Donchich. Like, he already almost did it to the clippers. He did do it to the Phoenix Suns. Like, he could do it again. They also have that March Madness thing where they shoot a ton of threes.
Starting point is 00:34:50 So high variance team with potentially the best player on the floor and a defense is good enough to win. That's a pretty good upset formula. So I will say that Steph Curry targeting Luca on defense last night. I don't know if you guys saw that. Didn't put a lot of confidence in me that like their defense could. But I will say since the trade deadline, seventh defense in the NBA, obviously 11 and 2 most recently. And so that would be my concern. But obviously, Luca is just going to give it to you on the other end.
Starting point is 00:35:18 Yeah. And also in the playoffs, Jason Kidd would be able to scheme around getting Luca out of those compromising situations. I think, you know, 2016 feels like the birth of the bum hunting sort of strategy of playing where it's just like, yo, LeBron's like, yo, come set the, steps. Who are the steps carding? Come set the screen for me. Like, but teams have gotten better about, you know, tagging strategies and, like, Pre-switching. Pre-switching.
Starting point is 00:35:50 Like, teams have gotten smarter about this, and I don't think you can just count on having Luca Garge your best player, who's a jitterbug, who shoots it from 30 feet away. Every single possession. Teams can't count on that. But, you know, of course, it's something to monitor for sure. If you want to throw some whatever in it.
Starting point is 00:36:07 And obviously, Kyrie, even when he's competing, his size doesn't allow for him to be a plus defender on 90% of nights. And so, you know, it's something to monitor, but like the connectivity, the effort is real and it's also married to a change in personnel. So, you know, I think it's something to look out for. That's something where how teams guard Luca
Starting point is 00:36:28 is going to determine a lot of his defensive effort because we've seen when he is challenged in the playoffs, he can be a decent defender, a guy who can only stand up on an island. But if you are guarding him one-on-one, which I realize is an insane thing to do, we saw that against the Rockets, like what's going to happen. But what also happens is it's a lot of energy
Starting point is 00:36:45 for him to expend. And so if he is having to create one-on-one, if you're staying home on all the shooters, I'm not even saying this is the right strategy, but over seven games, it's gonna take a toll on him. It was for the Warriors in 2022. Andrew Wiggins was still alive then.
Starting point is 00:37:00 So, it depends. I think he's back. On a night, look, praise him. He's risen. I've just started a bit every time I watch the Warriors of like, if Andrew Wiggins,
Starting point is 00:37:11 like, ties his shoelace correctly, I act like a soccer mom. But he's having more moments than he's had in the previous two months, probably combined in the last three weeks. So two weeks, I should say. So I'm monitoring it. Let's just say that. So the Dallas Mavericks new starting lineup.
Starting point is 00:37:31 Number one with a bullet. Which is Luca, Kyrie, Derek Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford. 23.2 net rating in 132 minutes. Yeah. So with the five-man lineups that have that amount of minutes, played. They're only two better in net rating. Can you name them? Is the Celtics because they're like net
Starting point is 00:37:51 rating darlings? They didn't show up. Did you say there was a time period on this? This is over the last... Isn't the season? The whole season. Of course the season that has at least 132 minutes. The Milwaukee Bucks. Nope. No? No. I mean, Denver. No, but Denver's high up there. I think they're like 18.5.
Starting point is 00:38:08 Denver plays so many minutes that I'm sure that like the net rating is a little less glossy. Is the sixers early starting lineup in there? That's the one. Yeah. That's number one with a Bullet, Maxie Melton, Batum, Harrison, Bede. This next one is pretty recent as well. 32.4. It's Brunson McBride.
Starting point is 00:38:23 Dante D. Vincenzo, Hart, and Hartenstein. Love that kid. He's awesome to watch. Yeah. When do we start calling the Hart-enstein connection, the Heart Foundation? Did we? Did you guys know? I haven't seen that. Oh, you said we're about to start it. Yeah. You're trying to pilot
Starting point is 00:38:39 this program right now. Do you guys remember the WWF? Of course. Yes. I do not. I do not. Are you kidding me? All right, so we have the Mavs one. Who do we have at two? Rob, do you want to go? Is it the Pelicans?
Starting point is 00:38:53 Yeah, unfortunately. It's the Pelicans. It's the Pelicans. Do we have an update on Ingram coming back? I think the same timeline, probably before the playoffs. But we'll see. What worries me about the Pelicans, though, is they've done well enough against the wolves. But I don't think they would do well against the Thunder or the Nuggets.
Starting point is 00:39:14 and if they had a chance to play the clippers, I think that would be great for them. So really only one of their potential realistic matchups is going to work out in any kind of good way for them. I think they could beat the thunder because I just think the thunder are eminently beatable for their age and their size problems, which these are problems that come up in the playoffs
Starting point is 00:39:36 every single year. Young teams not being able to execute in high-pressure situations and smaller teams getting bullied to buy more physical teams because the game is more physical and like, so that's another thing too. The bigger teams are also more likely to draw fouls.
Starting point is 00:39:54 It's not just that they're likely to beat you. They're more likely to get your guys in foul trouble, man. And so I think New Orleans has as good a chance as anybody against the thunder outside of the Denver situation. And I think, you know, of course, they just been whooping on the clippers.
Starting point is 00:40:12 They just manhand. handling the clippers. I like their chances, guys. I think, you know, the timber wolves are actually going to be able to guard them for real. And I'm not sure that their wing guys are, like, are physical enough to stay with Aunt Edwards. But they got a lot of options. They do. They do.
Starting point is 00:40:35 You know, between Herb Jones, you're throwing Trey in there, too. Like, I think they have more flexibility in guarding Ant than almost any other team. in the West does. It's just kind of lighten the shorts to me. A little bit. You know what I mean? Is Herb the best wing defender in the NBA? It feels like it.
Starting point is 00:40:50 I think he is. I mean, some of the stuff that he does is unlike anything any other wing defenders doing right now. The contest that he actually gets to the gambles that he makes and succeeds in doing, he's on another level for me. Shots falling and he's such a smart player. You're starting to see the shot open up other things for him. He can handle it. He can wheel and deal a little bit. He's a really good player.
Starting point is 00:41:11 He's a really good. Who's also a really good. Naji Marshall. I'm proud of you. That guy's fucking really good. He's good. So I've been tracking the non-Zion minutes with Ingram out there, the three and three without Ingram. In the non-Zion minutes, plus 28.
Starting point is 00:41:25 Yeah. So actually not that bad. In the non-Nazi minutes, minus 45. That guy is just up. Do you guys remember Dante Cunningham? Of course. So when I covered the Pelicans, Cunningham was the guy that nobody wanted but always needed. Because whenever they would want to give minutes to all these.
Starting point is 00:41:42 other guys that they drafted more highly and whatnot. They had more physical gifts or whatever. Yeah. It would always come down to Cunningham. He's the guy that every coach is going to go to because they need a solid-ass veteran. And Marshall, to me, kind of has that same sort of chalk outline. A little bit more athletic and can do a little bit more there, but same sort of.
Starting point is 00:42:00 But strong, multipositional, like, places spot well. And I will say the Pelicans do have this thing where, as we're thinking about the Thunder matchup specifically, the Pelicans are not really an offensive rebounding team, but in a matchup where that's important, they have everything you need to crank it up. You play Jonas Valenchunis more. You have Zion attacking the offensive glass. You have all this length
Starting point is 00:42:21 that can get to balls and get to the kinds of things that even a furious Thunder team might not be able to get to. You could see them praying upon OKC's biggest strategic weakness right now. Yeah, I like their line of versatility a lot. Zion never having been in the playoffs
Starting point is 00:42:37 in his entire life, kind of like, damn. You know, you wonder if you, he's going to be able to be up for conditioning-wise and just the intensity. Let's face it, intensity has not been his strong suit in his NBA career so far. But just the talent, the way they've played the last few weeks, and again, in the playoffs, you've got to be able to be like, yo, we can play without Valentuna's if we have to. You know, we can just go like Zion's going to play center for a few minutes here because that's what is going to take against this specific matchup.
Starting point is 00:43:10 their ability to do that. And I think Willie Green's a good-ass coach. It doesn't get talked about as much because there's been so much up and down with this team. But on a game-to-game-night basis, I love what Willie Green does. And so, you know, they got good coaching. I do think they deserve to be number two. I think them in Dallas are the two obvious, like, most dangerous playoff guys going into the postseason. I also say no hot spot.
Starting point is 00:43:40 among the top three seeds. No, no metropolitan cities that you're going to have to worry about with Zion on the road. But that's the thing. Like, I think on paper
Starting point is 00:43:51 they look great. I think Zion points are going to work just fine in Minneapolis, y'all. It's going to light up Bricktown. I can't wait.
Starting point is 00:43:59 Southwestern. That guy is just a frequent customer. Also that. Yeah, it's just the trust factor with this team. Like,
Starting point is 00:44:07 they've been to the playoffs. They had a good showing without Zion. Can they roll that over? One thing I will say is that arena, although in the regular season, sparsely attended, I would say, most of the time.
Starting point is 00:44:17 In the playoffs, they really show out. And that thing is the type of environment that might actually weigh in guys. The problem with all these teams, though, past the Mavs in the West, if you play the Nuggets, I just don't think you have much of a chance. And so there is a one and three, like, dice roll here.
Starting point is 00:44:30 Sure. Where it could really just break against you. And that's where the three-way tie are near enough at the top of the West right now is one of the most fascinating things to watch as the season closes out. So I think number three is where we separate and go our own ways. You think so?
Starting point is 00:44:44 I think so. Yes. Was? Miami Heat. What a bullet. Where are you going? What? Phoenix Suns.
Starting point is 00:44:52 Championship equity. Are you kidding me? Yeah, I got the Suns. No. I don't see it. I can't get there with the Suns. I would have, before the season, I would have had the Suns here. But watching these guys go through the motions and just the incongruity.
Starting point is 00:45:09 of what they do on a night. Like, yes, it's nice when Devin Booker drops 52. That's great. Like, if he's doing that every day, I'm like, oh, wow, this is the team. But, like, when it comes to just like, all right, we're just going to execute our basic job functions on a night-to-night basis, I don't believe in this team. And Bradley Beale, man, good God.
Starting point is 00:45:31 There might be a very tough Bradley Beale conversation to come. I thought it because we did the worst contracts on Bill's show. And I was like, Ben Simmons doesn't play. He's about to get, he's 40 million this year, he's 40 million next year. When he does play, we have to throw a parade because he played 13 minutes and was willing to shoot layups. Sometimes. Sometimes. But, God damn, Bradley Bill, man.
Starting point is 00:45:55 It's tough, dude. And it just feels like nothing that he does is additive to KD and Book as the main guys. Like, he's not complimenting what they do. It's kind of just like, all right, Every now and again, he gets to run his own offense, and he gets to do his little one-on-one thing, and he gets to operate in the mid-range. But he's not, like, he's not doing, like, this movement shooting or this off-the-ball cutting or this, oh, he's this crazy, dangerous transition.
Starting point is 00:46:24 He doesn't do anything that makes you feel like, oh, man, Phoenix, wow, they got these three guys. And when they're rolling, it looks so incredible. It's just like, no, KD's making his fadeaways and his dirt shots and Booker's doing his best. you know, Kobe impression or whatever, but I just don't see it with them. And in the playoffs, do we really think they have it like together enough as a group to just get through some adversity?
Starting point is 00:46:54 If you're asking me in my heart of hearts, no. You're just looking at the players and it's just like, I can't go against this. Well, then they have games like they had against the Nuggets. I know the Nuggets didn't have Jamal Murray. And you're right when they do win those games, it doesn't feel great. No.
Starting point is 00:47:07 But like, let's just get that. If you're thinking about who they're going to play, they're going to have to win a playing game, most likely. Most likely. And then they're going to have to be one of those three top West teams. I think the Wolves matchup is okay. I think the Thunder handled them. And look, I know what the regular season series is.
Starting point is 00:47:25 No one tweet at me. Do not at me. I know what happened in the Sun's Nuggets games. The Nuggets would beat them. Pretty handily. Yeah, sure. I don't disagree. So what is the path to an upset here?
Starting point is 00:47:37 I imagine I was looking too much at the matchups at this point. And if the Sons win their first playing game, and right now they're supposed to play the Kings. And I think they would win that game. Then they would get the two-seed. Right now, the two-seat is the Timberwolves. I do think that's an easier series for them. Their second best player is hobbled.
Starting point is 00:47:54 Right. They have problems in the half-court offense. Yep. I understand that logic. And the heat, for instance, the team you guys have at number three, probably will have to play the Celtics, most likely, maybe the bucks.
Starting point is 00:48:09 And so for me, I'm just mostly playing the odds where it's like I actually see the pathway for the sun's more. My thing about the heat is like they defined the genre last year. It's true. But every time you watch them, do you guys feel good about the game? I don't feel like I'm watching some, you know,
Starting point is 00:48:25 sleeping giant. I do not feel like that. That's how it felt last year too. Like when we were watching them in the play-in against the Hawks last season, it's like this does not look like a team that's about to go on a run and then they went on a run.
Starting point is 00:48:37 And they're better this year. What's different to them for me versus the Sons is they do have a chance to get to six. And that means they play the calves in the first round, which would be a huge, and don't have a playing game. Huge differentiating factors relative to the Sons. So you're either playing,
Starting point is 00:48:51 if you get into the playoffs, the Cavs who are beatable, have structural problems, even if they are all healthy and great and available, or the Bucks who are vulnerable, I would say, and certainly are vulnerable to a team like the heat
Starting point is 00:49:04 as we've seen historically. The bad news is, we are at the part in the heat buck cycle where the bucks wallop the heat. So every other year, cadence of this is not favoring Miami, but who knows? Stranger Things have happened.
Starting point is 00:49:15 So the team is the heat. 13 and 9 without Jimmy this year. Pretty good. In last three games, Terry Rozier has come alive. He does that. It took him a month plus in order to finally hit some goddamn three-pointers,
Starting point is 00:49:28 but the past three, 34 points, eight three-pointers made, 27, five, three-pointers made, 22, six-three-pointers made. Yeah. I think he wasn't making shots early on, but if you've been watching the Heats game, he's been doing this point guard routine thing,
Starting point is 00:49:42 which I think, you know, the Heat have a reputation, he coach her, blah, blah, blah. He wants to come in and fit in, and I admire that instinct, but I think the team will be best service. He's hunting his shot. He has to. That's what's going to make them more dynamic.
Starting point is 00:49:57 That's what's going to open things up for Jimmy to do his one-on-one brilliance and for Bam, the sort of work off of that. And so if he's hunting his shot, they become a completely different team, man. And, you know, he can make open jump shots. Like, I really liked the Rozier acquisition when it happened. It didn't coalesce immediately. It didn't gel immediately.
Starting point is 00:50:23 But I think he's finally realizing, like, yo, man, I can be me on the heat. And it's going to actually help us win. Well, so where do you have the heat? Because it sounded like you were pretty bullish on the Sixers. So in the Doc, I have the Sixers above the Heath. So I have the Sixers Four or the Heat Five. To me, they're kind of in the same tier. It really depends on Joel's health.
Starting point is 00:50:46 If Joelle is healthy. We're tearing this, too. I like that. They're tears within the power. Are there any empty tears this week? No, no, no. That's a shame. I think if Joel's healthy, man, that's a good fucking team.
Starting point is 00:50:59 It's good, man. Where do you guys? Who do you have a bit for? I think I've watched Tobias Harris in the playoffs long enough to not get excited about looking at these names on paper. Yeah, I think it's heat, then Sixers, then Suns. That's how I would put it. Just because I don't like the way Phoenix matches up with most of those top West teams. So for me, it's like, do I like the Sixes versus the Bucks more than than like Phoenix versus...
Starting point is 00:51:24 Yeah, who do you see as the best matchup for that? Minnesota? Probably. Yeah. Minnesota. You know, like... It's felt that way. You can see them being like,
Starting point is 00:51:33 yo, we're going to let Grayson Allen guard Rudy and like doing like a lot of trickeration. I think the problem for them is that the wolves, unlike the jazz, actually pass Rudy the ball. Like they do. Sometimes he messes it up. Like I watch him like literally try to do the most basic
Starting point is 00:51:52 like he has the ball of one hand, try to connect it with the second hand to sort of grab in the two. That's a lot of distance. Yeah, right, right. Just grabbing a ball. with two hands. It's hard for this guy.
Starting point is 00:52:03 And on this way, the ball just goes crazy. I'm just like, wow, this is nuts. But slow-mo passes him the ball, even after their fight last year, which I think is cool. Like, Conley always passes him the ball. Like, I don't think you're going to be able to take advantage of Rudy in the ways that you teams were able to in the past, which was also compounded by the fact that his team completely sucked on defense and neutralized what he was doing on that end anyway. But, like, again, I continue to think that the thunder are vulnerable.
Starting point is 00:52:35 The wolves because they're hurt are vulnerable. So, man, I'm going to put the Phoenix Suns reluctantly above the Sixers. I am. Yeah. Seems like we all have a kind of a consensus about this tier. Yeah. Sure. Dare I say.
Starting point is 00:52:52 I think the Sun's a lot of its blind faith. I'll be honest. It has to be. They just haven't played together enough to have anything but blindface. Although they are kind of settling into this nice eight-man. little rotation here. Yeah, that's true. And they kind of have to play an eight man rotation at this point in the season in order to stay
Starting point is 00:53:07 where they are. But like, I like the eight. Size, I think will be a problem. But I do think if Townsend is going to be there with the wolves, I do think they have a nice counter to that with all their jump shooters. Turnovers will be a problem. That's where Minnesota is such a weird matchup for them, because on the one hand, Book and Katie are going to be able to get into
Starting point is 00:53:23 those pull-ups with relative ease. But on the other hand, Minnesota's defense overall is so stifling that any time they try to run anything else, they're going to have to work really hard for it. And that's where the sun's turn the ball over a lot. And that's where you feel the absence of a point guard when they have to actually work for things. And in a seven-game series, you're going to have to work for it a lot of the time.
Starting point is 00:53:42 They're going to have to mid-range their way into success. And I just hate that calculation. A lot of two verse three going on with them even still. I think the West playoffs might be the best playoffs I've ever seen. Like what we're gearing up for. I know I probably say that every year, just because the anticipation heightens around this time. but like these matchups are going to be sick.
Starting point is 00:54:03 Well, the teams we haven't even talked about yet in the West are like winning 60% of their games. Yes. True. And they don't even, they're not even dignified with a top like six or seven upset ranking because that's how good the West is. So where are we at number six?
Starting point is 00:54:17 I personally had the Knicks here because I didn't really know what to do. Yeah, there are too many injuries for me. And LeBron on the other side. I can't pick the Knicks as a more dangerous playoff threat. even in the way worse conference than the Lakers who, if they can avoid the Nuggets, it's a big if. It's a big if. If somehow it breaks out that, you know, the one seed is awarded to somebody that isn't the Nuggets
Starting point is 00:54:48 and the Lakers end up there or the Lakers somehow get the seventh seed, which I think is going to be pretty tough for them at this point. But if they somehow get the seventh seed and it's, you know, they get. to play the two and it's not the Nuggets. Man, it's going to be hard for me to not pick them against the wolves or the Thunder. Really? Really. I know they've played well over the last 20, 30 games or so.
Starting point is 00:55:14 I don't want to discredit all that. Can I tell you how well? They're just going to spam AD, LeBron, AD at the 5, LeBron, some shooters, a little bit of ball handling. So why? The possession. I don't know, man. Since the trade deadline. Okay.
Starting point is 00:55:31 16 and 7. Yeah. Second best offense in the NBA. Yeah. The offenses look good. Defense, not so much. No. But this team has something.
Starting point is 00:55:39 Like, I'm telling you, Austin Reeves in a playoff series. Let's go. Dilo in a playoff series also. He's been so important to that highly ranked offensive formula. Depends on which playoff series. That's the case against the Lakers. It's like, Dilo, 35 minutes a night. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:59 counting on him to make shots, create shots, and then, you know, the defense. He's a father. He's matured. Okay. We can get that player tribune article going and see if that has any effect. I feel the same as Was. I do have them at 7th, but like, I could see it.
Starting point is 00:56:16 LeBron on short rest. He's breaking down his own series with JJ on that podcast. Well, you know, LeBron's a chess player. Oh, I hadn't heard that. He doesn't play chess, but he's a chess player. He plays chess on the court. I see. So in the playoffs, when you give them extra time to prepare, you know, ham and Phil Handy and all of these guys, like, they're definitely above the Knicks to me.
Starting point is 00:56:40 And I would actually, man, I might put them on the tier. Don't do this. I might tear them there. It's just I can't quit LeBron in the playoffs. I just can't. I can't overlook that. I'm going to be sitting right here when the Lakers win their first playing game against the Warriors. And then they have to play the Kings.
Starting point is 00:56:58 and DeMontas Sabonis Rex AD. Okay. I'm going to be sitting right here when you come crawling back and the Lakers don't even make it. Rex AD, okay. I'm just saying.
Starting point is 00:57:08 Gabe Vincent was back. Back? And he's not back again? I don't know. He hasn't played since the 31st. He only played 14 minutes. So we'll see. I think honestly is small of a friend group.
Starting point is 00:57:20 That guy went to the play. He went to the finals last year. He don't need these regular season reps, guys. Lakers, telling you guys. I can't tell if he's the new Kendrick Nunn. are the new KCP, where it's like he's going to play one playoff series. That's disrespectful.
Starting point is 00:57:35 You just think KCP is like a golden god. He's amazing. He's an amazing player. KCP has a player option this summer. If he turns it down, that dude is getting fucking paid. I think he's getting paid either way. He's a great fit for basically any style of team.
Starting point is 00:57:50 And also he's a genius the other day he said Nuggets for Life, even though he has a player options. Hey, I want him here for life. You just got a baby, guys. I will just say just having someone who's defense first on that team other than AD would be nice. It would be nice. Does Cam Reddish count as the? What about Rui Hachamora?
Starting point is 00:58:11 Can I interest you in him as a defense first? He's a solid guy. He's a body. Yeah. He's a guy. He's a body. He's a body. Cam Reddish, a 3-and-D player who's neither three nor D.
Starting point is 00:58:23 I will say, Rui has been very important to their season. And very important to their best groups and their best lineups. want to disparage that. I just don't see them. I just don't see them as a realistic upset team. Okay. I think the road is too tough for them, even just like getting out of the playing.
Starting point is 00:58:37 You really think they just couldn't beat the thunder? You really think that? I would take the thunder. I think the thunder are the most compelling matchup for the Lakers because of the size, because of the way they could bully them. I agree. LeBron just posting every single one of their wings up, every possession? I think, okay, so you could do it.
Starting point is 00:58:53 I have a lot of faith in the thunder. To the point that I have the Lakers a little bit below, I would actually put the pacer's above them as a first round upset candidate. Yeah, I respect that. Based on a couple things. One, they do have a chance to get to six, which is important.
Starting point is 00:59:08 The bucks five times this year. They have handled the bucks. They have given the calves the business. And I think their pace poses legitimate problems for both of those teams with their sides. It's just hard to keep up with that when you are, even Chris Middleton, not to mention Brooke Lopez and Bobby Portis. If you are, you know, Alan and Mowgli,
Starting point is 00:59:26 how are you going to be able to be able keep up with all that collective speed. I think it poses a problem for those teams. And so I've seen the Pacers give them trouble in a way that I think could be real in a first round series. How do we feel about Halliburn right now? It's been tough.
Starting point is 00:59:40 Yeah. It hasn't been a great couple months for him. By the way, he came back to the 65 game threshold. Is he even going to make... He's going to make All-M-B-A. Okay. I would think. Okay.
Starting point is 00:59:51 I haven't done the research. We'll have to do... I mean, we've got an upcoming episode where we're going to debate just that. I have to check JV. stats and info, you know, crunch some numbers. I wouldn't trust
Starting point is 01:00:03 a single damn thing coming out of J.B. Stats and info. I'm checking all the math on that. Have you not heard this podcast? It's a fueling. This hosting gig. Fueling is a strong word. I looked up five-man lineups, man. You think that just happens by itself? Yeah, literally, yes.
Starting point is 01:00:19 You get a button on the internet and it provides you with the information. I got to put in the right search fields. I have the pacer's 10th, because I refuse to rank the bulls and the hawks. So do you have the kings higher than the Pacers? I do, and the Warriors higher than the Pacers. The Warriors higher.
Starting point is 01:00:35 Warriors is my least. They're my last. I got them behind the Kings. If y'all think the Lakers are this good, the Warriors have to be near the bottom. Because they're going to be out immediately. Yeah, yeah, facts. To me, it's just more about, like, who comes out of that mix.
Starting point is 01:00:50 Because I don't believe in the Kings long term, sure. Oh, I will say, like, the Kings, it's so crazy. Like, the Kings... in the last like six weeks or like a top five defense, but like, do you really think that about them? No. LeLeague Monk is out.
Starting point is 01:01:06 Keon Ellis has been really good for them defensively. So the personnel has shifted. Offensively, they don't pass him the ball. I'm not sure they should. With all due respect. But defensively, he has changed the way they look and the way that that team feels in a playoff series is going to pose real problems.
Starting point is 01:01:23 Whether it's him or even given Mitchell's advancements on offense this season. Those guys are going to be left open. They're going to be forced to prove it over and over and over to the point that I don't think the Kings have the juice at all to beat those top teams in the West.
Starting point is 01:01:36 So the Lakers at least have a puncher's chance in size. I don't know that the Kings really match up with any of those teams well enough for me to feel confident in them being an upset candidate. So Bonn's not going to be able to put him on his back, huh?
Starting point is 01:01:48 Just AD apparently. I mean, I'm just, I'm giving love to Steph Curry here. The Warriors have played relatively pretty well. of late. They've won the past five. Wiggins alive sometimes. That lineup is actually
Starting point is 01:02:02 pretty good. The starting lineup with Cominga and Green and I think it's Yeah. Yeah, it's Steph and Clay. I just see them even, again, even if they get there, it's a Wolves team they can't match up with. It's a Nuggets team they have no answers for. And it's a Thunder team
Starting point is 01:02:18 that's given them the business all season. The Nuggets are just a horrible, horrible matchup. They will probably have to play the Nuggets if they make the playoffs, which is very tough. I'm just thinking about more teams rather than matchups at this point. I mean, we're at the bottom of our
Starting point is 01:02:33 giant killer rankings. Yeah, I put Golden State at the bottom just because it's like... Of the non-Bulls-Hawks teams. They're counting on Wiggins who's, you know, basically Houdini should be his middle name.
Starting point is 01:02:48 The disappearing asses. This is very, very Trumpian act. Sorry, the disappearing act. Look, but Jemsky is a rookie. Kaminka's never played. Like, Draymond is a freaking lunatic half the time. Clay is so up and down. Look, I love Jackson Davis, like every other hipster.
Starting point is 01:03:08 But, like, I just don't see it for them. Steph is, he has to do everything. He has to play 43 minutes a game. He has to run the pick. And he can't do in the playoffs, you'll notice. They have to go away from that off ball, beautiful game. So it's just like, Steph, please save us. Please just beat your man.
Starting point is 01:03:26 Please beat the switch. Please beat the conventional pick and roll. Please just beat everything. To me, they're at the bottom of this list for me. Steph has had moments to, even in the regular season, where when called upon to do that, he doesn't quite have it the way he used to have it. One-on-one.
Starting point is 01:03:43 It's 35 years old. It's a lot to ask of him. And this is everything we've said is assuming Draymond Green is available to play and not operating like an insane person and getting ejected in the first quarter. I don't know how you trust that team. They're at the bottom.
Starting point is 01:03:56 Steph's reaction when Draymond got tossed that game. That was tough. That's me after every podcast. I'm like, why would that be you? I think about conversations I've had me my exes. I just can't keep carrying these guys. Will you squeeze your eyes?
Starting point is 01:04:11 Yeah. Squeezing the eyes across the bridge of the nose, that's when you know what's bad. Oh my gosh. That's when you know what's bad. My tier is kind of, my rankings kind of stop with the Lakers. The rest are kind of just off the board, basically.
Starting point is 01:04:23 That's disrespectful. There we go. Does anyone have any hot bowls takes and hawks takes before games? I think it's weird that no, but that you didn't have the magic in here at all. Well, right now the Knicks are the five. And if they beat the Knicks, they just have nothing for the Celtics? I think, honestly, to me, the magic and Nix are pretty high on this list. Just because I think they're at least likely to win a round, right, against each other.
Starting point is 01:04:49 They're going to, one of those teams is going to make it out. I don't think either of them in their current state is going to beat Boston. But so it goes. I agree. Before we go, you guys want to try on the hat? No, I'm good. Although I like to see Yukon do well. I love seeing old Big East teams do well.
Starting point is 01:05:05 I'm just always surprised by your Yukon, like, devotion and dedication. It's kind of hilarious. It's non-existent. It's very convenient. It comes out for a week or two every year. The Uber flag changes his commitment. Fuck that guy. Truly, fuck that guy, that child.
Starting point is 01:05:29 Abandoning the entire New England area. And then, of course, with the final four, shout to page buckets, man. Next week on the pod, Justin has to name Yukon players. That's our whole, our whole itinerary. I can name them. I can't tell you much about them, but I can name them. You got a locked in.
Starting point is 01:05:45 All right, why don't we wrap it there? Thank you to Isaiah Blakely on production. Thank you to Ben Cruz. We'll be back on Sunday. Go Huskies, baby. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC
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