The Ringer NBA Show - How Many 3s Will Trae Young Be Shooting in 2029? | The Corner 3

Episode Date: March 1, 2019

We recap the Jazz-Nuggets game and wonder whether this is proof that the Jazz are back to where they need to be to contend in the Western Conference (1:00). Then, Zach Kram joins to talk about his piece on the 3-point revolution (25:00). Finally, we throw an outlet pass to the weekend’s games (44:30). Hosts: Danny Chau, Jonathan Tjarks Guest: Zach Kram Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. This week on the site, Danny Kelly, Robert Mays, and Kevin Clark will be offering their takeaways after each day at the NFL Combine. Miles Surrey brings you his Ringer guide to streaming in March, and Andrew Grudadaro tells you how to survive The Bachelor. You can check those out and more on the Ringer.com. And welcome to the Ringer NBA show. I think this would be the corner three, but our foot might be on the line.

I think we're going to call this the long two this week. Oh, I like it. As you can probably tell, I am not Kevin O'Connor. This is Danny Chow filling in for KOC, who is back at his home turf, hamming it up with all the nerds at the Sloan conference in Boston. But the show must go on. So joining me on the line from Dallas is Ringer Staff Rider Jonathan Charks. How's it going, man?

I like the whole long tooth thing because I'm picturing it's like this. You know when you lose a star from an offense, you've got to change the possessions around. Everybody else gets more shots. And you just take a lower percentage shots. So expect a lot more long to Jack takes today. Oh, man. Should we call ourselves the Ewing Theory podcast then? Nice.

Anyway, so this episode is produced by Bobby Wagner, of course, and we're recording this at 910 a.m. We had a couple of doozies on TNT last night. But let's start with what might have been the game of the night. The Jazz beat the Nuggets in Denver, 11 to 104, in a game that was both closer and not as close as the score indicated. The Jazz looked in control for most of the night, but the Nugget showed a lot of fight in the second half.

Ultimately, though, they basically caught a Utah team that showed every single facet of their strengths, basically every reason why they should be considered one of the most dangerous teams in the West. Charts, what did you see from that game? Yeah, I mean, I think we've been talking about it for a while. So Rubio missed this game, and that changed Utah's lineup.

So instead of playing, like, Rubio and Mitchell in the backcourt, They went Mitchell, they put Ingalls basically at the point forward, and they had O'Neill and Crowder as the wings. So basically, you have Gobert's center, Mitchell at point, and then like three six, six, six, six, seven switchable defenders. And I feel like this version of Utah is actually a little more dangerous even without Rubio. Yeah, and just for clarification, Rubio sat out the game because of a sore hamstring. Also, Howl Netto was out, Dante Exum was out.

So they basically didn't have any point guards. Joe Ingalls had an amazing game, the double-double with, you know, 11 or 12 assists. Donovan Mitchell was basically off ball for most of the game, but took over the game in the final two minutes.

And yeah, this is like, this was a textbook performance for the jazz. You had a signature defensive outing from Gobert, probably one of the best of his season, considering the stakes and considering the guy he was guarding.

Yeah, which we should get into, that Gobert versus Yokish matchup. Yeah. Because, like, I was thinking about it. Yokic's whole game is basically, I am bigger than you. I can shoot over you. And if you press it, I can get around you. And, like, Gober is like the one player in the league who can cover up Yokic, right?

Right. Like, Gober is. He's probably faster than Yon. I mean, he's faster than Yokic. He is. He's just as strong because Yonkos can't push him out of the way. And he really kind of gives him a lot of trouble. It kind of reminds me of a back, here's an old, back in the day with the Mavs.

The player always kept very trouble is Lamar Odom. Like, these long athletic defenders to guard these stretchy big men. Right. I went by looking at numbers. So they've played 10 games in their career, Gobert and Yokic. Chris, this is currently of Atlanta Basketball.com. So I don't stand by these numbers, but I'm going to go to what they have. And they have it as in those 10 games, Gobert averages 13.3 points a game.

And Yokic averages 13.4 points a game. And so obviously, if you're Utah, it's a great win for you. Because if you're, if O'Gabair is holding Yokch so far below his averages. Right. And one thing that I've kind of been talking about almost repeatedly on this podcast is how Gobert looks a lot more comfortable kind of defending out on the perimeter. And so what you saw out of Gobert yesterday against Yokic was basically him covering Yokic in every single possible scenario. He stonewalled him down low, contained him on perimeter drives.

And I think Gober's length is what kind of bothers Yokic, who doesn't really have the angles anymore when you're being defended by a dude who has like a 7-8 wing span who can cover you from the three-point line out. So, yeah, it was really one of those performances where, oh, Gobert might be a little bit better than he was in the playoffs last year, but also, what are we really expecting from Yokic this season in the playoffs? Well, it's really all about matchups, right? I think if you're Denver, the good news is I don't really see anybody else in the West who can cover Yokch like Gobert can. I mean, Gobert's such a freak. Right. There's really no other center is that long and that active and that strong. It's a really rare combination.

But I do think it answers the question kind of is raised. Like, if Yowicz is not creating shots for others, who do you really trust in Denver and the offense through? I mean, looking at like Jamal Murray or Paul Millsap, I guess. Yeah, it's weird because when we talk about Murray, we're talking about, and COC has written about this in the past, where they kind of run this very unconventional kind of one-five pick and roll a lot of the time with Murray and a lot of these dribble handoffs

to get Murray involved, but he's not necessarily their traditional playmaker type. And you're looking at kind of these weird sets where they're trying to get random guys, you know, involved, but it still all kind of revolves around Yokic. Yeah, I'm not really sure if they have that kind of guy who is going to be like that steadying presence when Yokic is off. My thing is, if I'm playing Denver in the playoffs, like my game plan, like, I'm making Yokch be a score. I'm not sending him help.

I'm making everybody else beat me. Like, if Yokoa scores 30 points and he scores 30 points, but I want to hold his assist down, and I want to make the rest of his teammates kind of live on their own. I think that's the key to if I was going to go up against Denver in the series. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of a weird comparison, but that's basically the strategy a lot of the times when you looked at the seven seconds or less sons, where teams were basically forcing Steve Nash to be a scorer, and he can do it. Like, he dropped 40 points in several games in the playoffs over his career, but he's obviously

not comfortable doing that. Yeah, it goes against his DNA. Exactly. And those games are when, you know, the suns are least dangerous because suddenly the ball isn't moving quite as much and suddenly Nash is having to hunt down

his own shot. It throws a serious wrench into the mix. And I think that's why Denver brought in Isaiah Thomas, I think was kind of the idea if Yokic kind of gets stymied, there's somebody else can go one-on-one.

I don't know if that's going to work, though. But, yeah, he has not, looked very good. And we can probably chalk that up to Rust. We can chalk it up to him still getting into game shape. But, you know, this team is definitely in the hunt for the number one seed. And you could argue that they should probably be going for it as hard as they can to try and maintain home court advantage. They're not a great road team. At what point do you say this Isaiah Thomas experiment probably isn't going to work and just scrap it? I think that's really hurt them, is not hurt him, not hurt them, but hurt him as Monta Morris.

Montemore, because I think the thought was the start of the season, we'll give Monta Morris second year point guard, second round pick. He'll be the backup for like three months, then we'll phase him out, bring Isaiah in. But Morris has been so good he has to play. Right. But now you're playing two really, really small guards off the bench. And that's just tough in the playoffs. I feel like perimeter length and size is so important.

And now Denver is really small in the perimeter. And I think one thing that the Nuggets did to really get themselves back in the game was it was Will Barton. Will Barton was a huge energy guy, getting all these defensive rebounds, bringing the ball up the court, pick and rolls. He really brought the energy.

And one thing that I was wondering is like, they brought Gary Harris off the bench. And I can kind of see Barton and Gary Harris being kind of these like boys in the back court to kind of like

maintain a certain level of equilibrium with this, with this Nuggets offense. I kind of... Like when Yokic is not playing, Right, yeah. So, you know, you kind of enable Gary Harris more as, you know, a primary and secondary playmaker in the second unit. I honestly think this is probably me being partial to my guy, Malik Beasley, who kind of really works in that starting lineup. He's a perfect offball threat. And he's, I think as a starter, he's actually got 50, 50, 90 splits. The guy's just like ridiculously efficient. I mean, it makes sense because, like, you. guy like that off Yokic. He's doing less thinking,

Yokich is giving him more shot, as opposed to being more of a creator for himself in the second unit. Right, and that's just not something that the Nuggets have necessarily seen out of Beasley yet. And so, you know, I would rather give that role to,

you know, someone who is a little bit more accomplished, a little bit more familiar with it, like Gary Harris. It's not a demotion in my mind, but like, if you can have a super sub, especially with a team that has the kind of depth that the Nuggets have, I think that's a boon.

They're going to be a fasting team to watch in the playoffs. They've never been there before. They have so many young guys. I'm really looking for a single what they look like. Yeah. Yeah, one thing that I worry about, you know, and it's obviously something that's been on our minds for the past two years. It's just like, what does Yokic look like on defense in the playoffs?

Like, he was in foul trouble yesterday, and when he's in foul trouble, he just doesn't offer anything on defense because he knows how much he has to expand on offense. And so he's basically just like letting guys drive by him because there's nothing really he can do. He doesn't have like the margin for error with his physique. Yeah, it feels like for them matchups will be key. Yeah.

Is there any team that's in the hunt for like the seven and eight seeds that you think might be able to give them like a legitimate scare? Well, I mean, the Lakers obviously. Yeah, right? Like LeBron. LeBron's always out there looming. I know LeBron's not scared at them, whether that matters or not.

I don't know. Right. Yeah, is there anything else that we should touch on with the jazz? I think that that win was just really impressive. We basically covered, you know, their ideal lineup, which I guess we should reiterate it. It would be Dodvin Mitchell, Royce O'Neill, Joe Ingalls, Jay Crowder, Jay Crowder, and Rudy Gobert. Okay, so fun and small sample size, those guys are plus 26. point six and 65 minutes this season.

That is insane. That is ridiculous. And it's also like just a massive defensive unit. Like Mitchell might only be six three, but he has a 610 wing span, which essentially means he's a 6-6 wing. Yeah, he's very switchable. Yeah. Yeah.

And to me, like with Rubio and Mitchell, I feel like Rubio has like training wheels for Mitchell. Like Ruby will take care of the ball. He'll run sets, blah, blah, blah. But he's a, you know, he's a point guard, not a great shooter, takes the ball out of Mitchell's hands and leaves you a lot more small in the perimeter. Like to me, Rubio is a guy, he gets you only so far, then you got to let him go. Right. Yeah, and I think one thing that's really fascinating about the jazz this year and last year

is that, you know, they're once again kind of surging in the second half the year. And it kind of makes me think, like, they're just a second half team. It's because you need time for your players to gel. And it's not always just because of personnel. It's about how the league changes around you. Well, I mean, a lot of it, too, is a schedule, though. Yeah. I don't know if it was the same last year.

Their schedule was crazy for one of this year. Now it's really evening up. And what's interesting is, we were looking at the numbers on Slack today. Like, they can make it run at the three seed. Yeah. And if that happens, and if we could okay, say Houston first round, oh, my God. I could not. The takes from that series as one would be mind melting.

The weird thing right now is that so the top three seeds in the West are kind of slumping a little bit. And the four, five, and six seeds are on like long, win streaks. So we could be seeing a lot of shuffling. I think there's only three games separating three and six. And so, you know, there's still a lot of playoff jockeying

left to be had, especially in those high, high up, like, you know, four, three, four, five seeds. And man, if you could avoid Golden State's side of the bracket, that would,

I mean, we'll see like the last week is this season, but that could be a lot of, like, moving around because that is, just avoiding Golden State as long as possible.

It's huge. Because I think with Golden State, like, you're always like, man, what if stuff gets hurt? Right? You give us some more time if stuff gets hurt, all of a sudden, it's open for anybody. So, do you think the Warriors end up with the number one seed? I don't know. I mean, I don't think they have much incentive to push for it. Right. So they're getting boogie back in. I don't know that they really are going to try to push for the one that hard.

And so actually, the one team that kind of made this possible for the Jazz to move up was actually the Thunder losing yesterday in the first game of the T&T. double header. The Sixers won 108 to 104 against the Thunder. No Paul George, no M.B. That's a weird game. Weird game. We got to see a lot of our corner three favorites kind of get some shine yesterday. But yeah, what was your big takeaway from that game?

I mean, the thing I've been interested in watching the last few weeks with Mbid resting or whatever he's doing right now is like, so they played Simmons at the five, which I was kind of surprised looking at the numbers. According to the numbers, this is the first time all season last night. He didn't play with either Mbid, Miscala, Johnson, Bolden, or Bobon.

So it was like Simmons. They closed the game, I think, with Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Mike Scott, JJ Reddick. Right. Those lineups have been killing it. So Simmons, Butler, Harris, no Mbid, plus 25.4 and 74 minutes this season. Yeah, that's ridiculous.

And it's basically what you've been kind of clamoring for most of the season. And it's just surrounding Simmons with as many shooters and playmakers as possible. Yeah, I think for sure, if you're Philly and the playoffs, maybe the idea should be you leverage Embed and you play the other three stars without him when you stagger the minutes. Because I think that is such an interesting look for a team. Like, to change from Embedit at the five as Simmons at the five. Right.

It's such a wild difference in styles over the course of the game. I think it really allows you to dictate tempo and lineups with the other team if you're making this a wild switch like that. it really actually doesn't surprise me that much that this is the first time Simmons is playing the five. I feel like Brett Brown's pretty conservative with the way he trots out his centers. Like, Muscala got a lot of time next to Embed. I would think trots out. It's the right word for Amir in Muscala.

Yeah. A lot trotting. Oh, man. I make this joke every single time I see Amir, but it's just like you can hear his ankles creaking like every single time he's on the floor. Like I can't believe he's still playing. Be careful. He's out on Twitter. clapping back at writers, though.

I saw that. No, he's, he's amazing. He's, he's a Toronto legend. Like, he's, uh, he's probably the guy who taught Ed Davis all he knows about being, you know, a lovable teammate. I, I love him. It's just, you know. And I think, too, with, like, these Simmons Harris lineups, I think that's where

Harris can be most valuable is playing with Simmons and smaller looks. Because then you can go real fast. You have a second score. He's spreading the floor for Simmons. I mean, I think that to me is the most, that was like what really just done to me from this game. Right. And then, of course, there's Jonah Bolden, our arm fan, our hero. man,

Jonah Balder. Yeah, KOC's out so we can go real wild. Let's do like 50 minutes on Jonah Bolden. I mean, this was his best game as a pro. He shot six of seven from the field and really did it in a variety of ways. It wasn't any one particular space on the floor where he did it.

You know, he was a role man in pick and rolls, caught some alley-oops, you know, drove past dudes on close-outs, hit some threes. If they can get consistent production out of Bolden, I think that's huge.

He's really skilled for a guy his size. He's very active. He's kind of wild sometimes. But I wonder if Brett Bottle trusts him in the playoffs. It feels like Brown's going to want to play his vets. And he won't want to deal with the highest and loads of the bold and experience. Oh, man. So, like, but how many Amir Johnson minutes are we getting then?

Yeah, maybe it's like Mike Scott. Right. Maybe. I can't imagine Amir's going to play much in the playoffs. but or Bobon either for that matter. So Boulder, I mean, there are minutes for Bolden. Whether he can take advantage if I think could really make Philly would raise shooting

of their team. I mean, we will always, always clamor from more Jonah Bolden minutes. Yeah, and the crazy thing is he was like, the one year when he went overseas, he was shooting like 40% from three. And his shooting has come down since then, but if he becomes consistent three-point shooter

on top of the rest of his game, he's going to be a really, really good player. Right. And you, yeah, you were one of the, you're one of the first guys who wrote an actual pre-draft profile on him and he has like a very interesting background Oh, I forgot he's Australian too, isn't he?

That's right. I just remembered that. Oh, damn, yeah, yeah. Wait, so can that work in his favor? Like, Brett Brown, Australian Connect. Simmons, I don't know. Let's make this happen. Yeah, so, you know, with the Thunder,

obviously they were missing their MVP, but was there anything really to glean out of the performances we saw last night. I think it was funny, though. Like, you know, it played well for them was Jeremy Grant, former process veteran. Yep. That was, like, the process guy,

like they've made a lot of trades of the last few years really a bleeding value. Like Jeremy Grant, he's like a better version of Jonah Bolden. It's much I hate to say it. He's like what we want Boland to become, basically. But, well, not as athletic as Jeremy Grant either. It's fascinating because you have been on the Jeremy Grant train for years.

even before he became a reliable three-point shooter. He's shooting like 39% from three this year on three and a half attempts per game. Like that is legit. You know, I was a little concerned when they bought him Markeef Morris that it would take away Grant's minutes. But I think Donovan's in the smart thing

played Marquief off the bench and he's really taken out Patrick Patterson. Oh, yeah. He's been by far their worst player all season. So I think that's a big plus Roe-KC going forward is getting P-PAT out of there and just playing Marquif those backup four. or five minutes.

Right. And yesterday, because George was out, they started both Marquif and Jeremy Grant. But I think with Jeremy Grant's threat of that three-point shot, he's really kind of opened up a little bit more, you know, a dribble drive game. So he's still basically a straight line driver. But there are certain possessions that we saw yesterday where he's so athletic. Yeah, that's the thing. Grant on a straight line, that's a fast straight line made to be. That's not a lot of time.

It's, you know, one first step off that close out, and it's probably one dribble, and he's right at the rim. And so, like, there aren't that many athletes who, you know, can beat that. Like, have we heard a Roberson update? I have just realized, like, it's almost March. It's March now. Is he going to play this season? To be honest, like, I always kind of forget that he's even on the team.

I mean, he's not a year and a half now. Yeah. It's fascinating in the sense that, like, I think we're on the same boat. in that we don't think like Robertson's going to be a guy who's going to swing anything for the thunder, but it would just be nice to have someone

who knows the system and who can competently play to replace, you know, like Abdonator's minutes. Yeah, and I was thinking too, like if you're going to play Grant at the 5 or Marquiff at the 5, it opens up a more time at the wing for somebody. Right. Yeah, and I think

with the addition of Marquif who, you know, the Rockets could have used the Raptors could have used. So many teams could have used this guy who can basically play three positions, guard three positions. You know, with Marquif, the Thunder can really trot out some interesting second unit lineups. They have, you know, Schroeder, Morris, and Noel.

All three are basically like low-end starting caliber players who can kind of keep that second unit afloat. It's not a traditional, they don't really have traditional depth in that. They don't really have three-and-d guys. but those guys can kind of maintain a level of consistency for, you know, when Westbrook is out and, you know, missing a bunch of shots. Yeah, and they've really struggled with depth this season. After Schroeder on their bench, and I guess, Nerlands,

like they've really been getting nothing from 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 on their roster. Yeah. Like, I said, Abdel Nader, Hamadu Dialloo Diallo is kind of playing some. We had, like, Deonté Burton's played. We had one game where Deonté Burton was amazing. And I'm, like, rooting for that guy, but I don't know if it's, necessarily his season. Okay, now this is, we're really getting to deep cuts now,

Fonthe Burtain. He's like, he's like a PJ Tucker from, you know, 2009 with a jetpack. You know, he's really athletic, but he's really built like a bowling ball. Okay, I could see. He has to, like, realize, like, I'm a defensive player now. Like, that's the thing.

Because he was kind of like the ball. He was like, he has a big score in college. Now he has to move into, I'm a role player. I move the ball. I've hit shots. I don't go outside of myself. Right. So with the final stretch, I have one last question for you on The Thunder.

With the final stretch coming up and Paul George very much in the thick of this MVP's conversation. You know, I feel like he is kind of the dark horse in the sense that, you know, in 2017, Kauai was kind of like creeping into the discussion. He was like cemented himself as a possible, you know, option there. is there anything he can do to, like, raise his candidacy? I mean, at this point, it's all about team success, right? You got to get OKC to the one seed. It'll be tough because they've got a crazy tough schedule coming up. So we'll see, I guess.

If he can, like, I forget the numbers, but they'll look them up online if you want. But they have to play a lot of good teams down the stretch of the season. It'll be tough from the stay at three, much less move up to two or one. I think if he's on the MVP, I get to the one seed, realistically. Right. And at this point, it seems like. like, yeah, it's looking unlikely because with that Sixers loss, they've now lost three in a row in danger. Actually, they're tied with the Blazers right now record-wise. So, you know,

they could easily slip to the four. See, I think that's crazy to me about the Paul George saying, like, he's a great, obviously, right? But to me, is he better than Kevin Durant? I mean, Durant's fitting not because he's not the number one option on his team. He doesn't hold the ball that often. Near to his George, because he got Resbrook. Like, Durant, to me, is just a better version of Paul George. So I see not a gaming P talk of Paul George's going to be talk. Narrative, Doug. That's why Katie's upset. I'm with you, Katie.

I see what these media hating on you. All right. I think that's all the talk we have for the T&T games. Right after this break, we'll bring on Zach Cram, who wrote a great piece about three-point revolution that we're having in the NBA. Here's something interesting. Studies show that security systems deter burglars. It's a fact.

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who earlier this week published a fantastic feature story about just how far the NBA's three-point revolution will go. We're honored to have them join us. Zach, how's it going? Happy to be here. So for listeners who haven't got a chance to read the story, how would you summarize the piece's findings? Essentially that I think anyone who's listening to this podcast probably knows that

three-pointers have taken over the NBA to some extent. But I looked into why that is. And I think more importantly for the future is why that might continue and might continue to grow. So I talk to, I guess guys I called three-point evangelist coaches who have been in the G-lead. coaches who have been in college, skills trainer, who are sort of at the forefront of this movement and helping shepherd three-pointers along. And I think there were some really interesting findings about not just three-pointers increasing, but what specific kinds of three-pointers

increasing, what players are shooting more three-pointers that sort of paint a more detailed picture about why we're seeing more threes. Okay, Zach, so my favorite quote in the story, You were talking to Daryl Mory and he goes, most people think we were going too fast with the threes. You were the first person to ask why it went so slow. Yeah. I was perfect. Yeah, because I interviewed Daryl actually back in the fall. And I was asking him, you know, like you have said that you always knew the value of three-pointers dating back to the days before you were a GM when you were an assistant with a Celtics.

Like, why didn't you start taking a lot more three-pointers until 2015? And he said, basically, we had to get buy-in from the players, we had to get buying from the coaches, we had to get the right roster in place. And if you look at how Houston has built this roster over the last few seasons, you really see how he connected those dots to build this kind of roster because it's not just James Harden. It's all the wings he brought in, even some of the players who didn't work out who were asked to take more three-pointers. So that's sort of where it started with Houston. but I think you then see that kind of same roster building blossoming around the entire NBA. So sure, it might have started a little slower at first, but once it came into the NBA, it just started accelerating.

Yeah, when I was reading this piece, I kept thinking of Alice in Wonderland. And the part where he's like, we're on the opposite side of the looking glass now. And it's like, before this happened, it was like, oh, three years so weird and crazy. And now that it's happened, it's like, oh, this is obvious. Of course you should be doing this. Like, the league has totally changed. This just makes so much more sense to do. Right. And there are parts in the piece where, you know, you talk about how, you know,

basically a bunch of people had said that, you know, it's all about validation. Like when the Warriors won that first championship, that was kind of when the floodgates happened because everyone was just like, okay, this can work. Everyone kind of had that thought, but it was just like, once it actually happened, let's just do this in earnest. And like this, you know, he's not maybe the most analytical basketball mind, but I think about like Charles Barkley talking on inside the NBA about how jump shooting teams can't win championships. And even if that wasn't the most like statistically oriented mindset, it was kind of accepted more generally. So the Warriors were a really important part in pushing this forward.

And then like even though the Rockets haven't won a championship, they came really close last season shooting a lot of three pointers. So you have teams like the Bucks who have increased their three points. rate, the percentage of shots that are three-pointers, they were in the middle of the pack last season. Now they're in the top five. And the nets are shooting more three-pointers because they didn't have the draft picks to build the talent. So they needed to kind of money-ball it and think how can we gain an advantage. So there may be different routes that teams took to start shooting more threes, but they've all kind of drifted toward the same place. Yeah. And I think the bucks are a perfect example of like, it goes beyond even just having, being worth three points. So you talk about

later in the piece, it's all about like making the defense guard more space. And as you shoot more threes, also it means your twos are more valuable because the defense is guarding more area. So the bucks have all these three point shooters. Then they have Janus and sides shooting like 70% at the rim or something crazy. And it just makes a defense guard more areas of the floor. And the more you have to guard, the hard is to do, obviously. This is something that I kind of explored in my Steph Curry-Lonzo ball piece that we launched

the ringer with, the idea that, you know, these players are forcing you to guard spaces on the floor that just, like, were never considered danger areas to begin with. One stat that I really thought was valuable in kind of understanding the value of a three-pointer was the one where the points per attempt from 23 feet were actually more valuable than generated more points than the shots taken at two feet? Am I saying that correctly, Graham? Yeah. So, that's not necessarily perfectly representative because you have to calculate like you're probably more likely to get a free throw if you shoot from two feet away. But if you ignore free throws, if you ignore turnovers, if you ignore offensive rebounds, shots from 23 feet away generated more points per attempt than shots from two feet away last year. And to your point about defending new areas on the floor, one of the quotes that ended up getting cut from the final piece is I talked to David Arsino, Jr., who is a D3,

coach who for two seasons coached Sacramento's D-League team. And while he was there, his team shot a ton of three-pointers and they had offensive ratings of 116 in both seasons, the best in D or G-League history.

And I asked him, like, were you at all afraid that moving from college to the NBA, the three-point line is further away, were you afraid about how that would affect your strategy? And he said, if anything, it actually helped because it made the defense widened out more

and actually opened up those spaces for us. So I think that gets your point. Like three pointers from 28 feet away, which were basically unprecedented before recently, they've doubled just in the last two seasons. So that shows how quickly this is changing when you have, then this gets to the next part of the piece, but you have guys like Trey Young now entering the league who like before it was just Steph Curry shooting from out there, now you have a bunch of rookies entering the league who already know they can do that. Right. And that Trey Young game against the Rockets in which he shot 8 for 12 from 3, all of those 12 attempts came from 27 or further, further out. It was amazing. Yeah, and one way to look at it, it's like in football, sometimes there's value in football and just throwing it deep to make a defense think about those plays, right?

Like when you get the other ball 45 yards down the field, now the defense has to extend farther out to guard it. And the same basic idea in basketball. If you're shooting it from farther away, the defense has to have. to reach farther out, which opens up more room behind the defense to attack inside too. And if you think about trying to manipulate the available space on offense, the first three pointers that people really saw it were corner threes. They stretched the floor horizontally, but you can't go any further horizontally because then you reach the sideline. So the only way to do that is start extending further back vertically. Right. And to me, the other thing really, as I was reading this piece, and you're talking about defensive counters and the difficulty of guarding

threes. And it just seems like, it feels like even now, there's still so many traditional bigs in the league. And in like five years, I just wonder if you cannot go to three point, like, can you still be in the NBA? So basically, Kram, you have helped bolster Charks's manifesto of, exactly. Yeah. That's why you're on this pod. The six eight, the six eight wing who can play all five positions, uh, being the, the model NBA player for the next 50 years. And I think that's honestly a question. It's pretty clear at this point that three-pointers are rising in the NBA and to a large extent they work. I think the question is, what does it look like in five, 10 years when players who grew up playing this way have now filtered into the NBA? Because

like, if you look at tall players now, for the most part before the last couple of seasons, they had to learn how to shoot in the NBA. Even this season, like Brooke Lopez is a great example. He was never shooting three-pointers in college. He was never shooting three-pointers. when he first entered the NBA, and he had to learn over time. Now he's very good at it, but that was still a process. Oh, that's a good point. So I'm just thinking, so with Carl Towns, so this is crazy. He came into college, and everyone's like, Carl Towns is so soft.

He shoots too many threes. And Calipari said, cat, I'm putting you in the post. We're going to show them you're a post player. It'll be the one picking the draft. And now he's like still unlearned that four years later, where it's like, cat, take seven threes a game, please. Quit wasting your time in the post. And you wonder if that will definitely continue changing.

Like, uh, Bull, Bull from Oregon, you know, he's obviously been out a while for injury, but he was shooting a lot of three-pointers, even like DeAndre Aitin, who hasn't taken really any threes in the NBA so far, he was still taking one a game in college. So you wonder, as his offensive profile continues to evolve, can he start stepping out and taking more threes like he was in college? So I think like I had a quote in there from Arsenal where he said, at some point, you know, an NBA team will be taking two-thirds of their shots from three. I don't know if with the talent pool and the player pool we have now,

if any team can realistically approach that mark, but could they in five, 10 years when those new players are in the NBA? I don't really see why not. Right. Yeah, and the interesting thing too. So, like, if that's the upper limit,

the quotes have in my head all season. As I had an executive told me, he thinks the average in five or 10 years will be 45% three-point shots for every team in the league. So, like, every team is baseline will be the wrong. Yeah, and one of the quotes that Arsenault gave about kind of watching NBA games and being impatient, you know, seeing all of these potential threes that could be taken, but the NBA

players are just either hesitant or just, they aren't wired to think, oh, this is the first shot that I should be taking. I found that really fascinating in terms of like, they're basically, like, yeah, Arsenal is basically looking at basketball completely differently now. And I think that that'll probably continue to change as more, not just players with this mindset, but I wonder if we'll see more coaches with this mindset hired. Nick Nurse in Toronto is an obvious example. He was a D-League coach in Houston under Mori before he took this job.

And now the Raptors are shooting more threes. So I wonder if we'll see that pipeline change too. It's kind of like we have, Charks mentioned the NFL earlier. like the NFL is now basically hiring anyone who's ever run an innovative offensive system to run their team because they see how it's working. So I wonder if the NBA will start to evolve in that way too. Because besides Nurse, it hasn't really to this point. Like I guess you could say Brooklyn is another example of that.

But for the most part, they've been drawing from the same kinds of coaches. So I wonder if we'll start seeing like college assistants just get hired to pretty high profile jobs in the NBA because they're running more innovative styles and, you know, the team wants to to get the first mover advantage. So one thing of that I've noticed, and I think I've talked with this Kevin Clark, actually. So the average three point percentage this season is actually down from the past, what, five seasons, right? By a small amount, right? By about one percent. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah, I was wondering if it had anything to do with the fact that just every single position is taking more threes now. And so you're having a bunch of centers who probably haven't really had

a lot of game experience shooting these threes now attempting them. And so the percentage might dip a little. But I'm wondering five years from now if everyone is kind of acclimated to this style of play, like, does percentage go up or does it stay more or less the same? And I think that's also getting to Charks's point about how maybe defenses are evolving. Ben Falk had a great piece at cleaning the glass last week where he was analyzing the buck's defense and the bucks have a good defense, but they give up a lot of three pointers. And he had drilled down into like the exact players, the bucks were allowing to shoot threes. And for the most part, the reason is the bucks have done a very good job about identifying these are the shooters you need to stick to and these are the

shooters you can, you know, let shoot. So I wonder if teams will continue to to figure out those like more team specific strategies. Maybe that'll change in the playoffs when you can really, home in on a roster over a seven-game series, but I think over the course of an 82-game season, I'm not sure how viable that is for all 30 teams to embark on. Yeah, and two, I'm obviously, like, as the years go on, there's going to be fewer and fewer players where you can say, oh, let's leave him open and shoot threes.

So I like about this piece, too. So I did a piece this week on Josh Richardson and how he's kind of grown as a player this season. And the big jump for him is he's gone from taking like four threes a game, to like six and a half threes a game. And I think what excites me the most about, like, the way the league is going, is I feel like the raise in three point rate. It's kind of changing the model of what a star looks like.

Because not only are you taking more threes is less physically demanding, but as the four opens up, it becomes easier to score inside for guys who aren't quite as big and athletic. So to me, five, ten years from now, I think we're going to see more stars in the league because stardom is not going to be as dependent on physical ability as it is now. It's more about skill, and that can be developed than younger players. One thing that we've noticed from the very higher ends of the sport. So, you know, we've seen James Hardin, we've seen Paul George average 10 or more threes per game.

We see how that's affected them. I think one thing that, Charks, your Josh Richardson feature really hit on was the fact that this overall mentality has kind of impacted players way further down in the totem pole. I love that. It's a trickle-down theory of threes. Yeah. I just ran the numbers. I looked at players who are six-foot-10 or taller,

and their shooting percentage actually hasn't changed on threes that much, even as they're taking a lot more. So one of the numbers I had in my piece is that players six-foot-10 or taller, five years ago took about 4,000 threes in a season. You know, that's guys like Dirtniewiczki. Players six-foot-10 or taller now are on pace for about 11,000-3s. That's an increase of almost three times, but their percentage actually hasn't budged that much. So I actually agreed with your theory, Danny, but maybe it's just random variation.

Yeah, it seems like it. Trucks, did you want to hit up this four-point shot? Yeah, we should talk about that real quick. So what do you think about that as like way down the line? Do you think that's, I mean, people have been talking about it for a while now. So the four-point shot, maybe at like 30, 35 feet, do you think we could see, well, how would that, it would ever be possible? If anything, I think that would warp the geometry of the floor even more, because if you think teams are already drifting back to 28 feet and beyond, even without the four-pointer, just because players can shoot from that distance now, just because that opens up more space.

I think if anything, if you say, oh, you'll need to step back two more feet and get a whole extra point, I think that would change the calculus even further. I don't know if this is just a random blip yet or a sign of things to come. but when I was looking at the shots from 28 feet away, so those are not as high percentage shots as those right at the three point line, of course. So throughout history, every year team, or like the league was below 30% or around 30% on shots from 28 feet or beyond. This year, so far,

they're at 34%. That's a pretty big difference. They're almost shooting as well from 28 feet and beyond as they are from like every other three-pointer on the court. and there's a sample bias there because only certain players are taking shots from that distance. But if that percentage continues to creep up, I think, if anything, we'll just start seeing, like, teams, you know, running their offensive sets as soon as they cross the half court line. And I think it makes sense, too, because, like, you listen to, I remember Shaq had a quote

the other day where he's like, if I was in the league now, I'd be like Janus. And you think about, like, Shaq came into the league really slim. And he got bigger and bigger as time progressed. But nowadays, like, the big men are trying to stay leaner. So I think eventually you'll see more and more bigs with like Janus, like, ability to cover space. And you'll almost have to play farther out just to get any shot off. Right. Shaq kind of like put on blubber just to take the pounding of being himself.

So with, you know, the defensive rules that have changed since then, yeah, I'm pretty sure he would have stayed lean. Yeah, we're on a keto diet now in the NBA. But I feel like the four point shot thing kind of boils down to one thing. How convincing was Ray Allen's performance in the celebrity game? Do you think the four-point shot broke the game then? There's a deep cut. Celebrity game scouting. I don't actually know the range in which that four-point shot was taken at the celebrity game.

It didn't look very far. Like, if that's the actual line, I think, like, Steph's going to be averaging, like, 42 points in, like, five years. Yeah, there's no reason. You know, it could also help older guys. there was the ESPN piece from earlier this season about how LeBron James, as he's aged, has just started taking deeper and deeper threes because he doesn't want to expend as much energy on offense. And because he can't.

Yeah, because he can. But as Steph Curry ages, it's not like he'll lose his shooting touch. So I can imagine, like, 38-year-old Steph just moving like 20 feet in either direction, jacking, well, I guess not threes, but four-pointers. Well, I mean, I think either way, as we've been talking, about, even not the four-point shot, just the value of the deeper shot with the geometry the floor makes it valuable. Like, if you can make 35-foot shots, you should be taking them. Right. There's my take for the day. It's the idea that there's no bad shot from

Steph Curry anywhere on the court. Okay, cram. One final question before you let you go. It's 2029. Both Luca Donchich and Trey Young are 30 years old in the prime of their careers. How many threes are they attempting per game? Ooh. That's a really good question. Are we assuming there's no four point play. For now, let's look like the three, yeah, no fours.

I think they will be attempting like 12 to 15 threes per game, maybe on the higher end depending on what team there. Like James Hardin this year, I think is a good example of that where he's setting all sorts of records,

but I do think that's partly just because he had no other choice. So I'll say around 15 per game. So they'll be where Hardin is now, basically. There you go, man. Harden, ahead of his time. Amazing. Thank you, Zach, so much.

Thank you, guys. Have a good one, Zach. Absolutely. And you can find all of Zach's analytical brilliance at the ringer.com. Please read his work because it's really fantastic. So one team that's obviously adhered to this three-point revolution is Milwaukee. And we seem to talk about them ad nauseum on this pod. As we should.

But, yeah, it's only because they're really, really good and really, really fun. And that's why they're one half of our NBA watch of the night. the Bucks visit the Lakers tonight. You can catch the game on at 10.30 Eastern on ESPN. Charks, what are you looking forward to here? I mean, LeBron versus Yannus, you know. It feels like a new hope when Darth Vader and Obi-Wan are facing off in the Death Star. And now the student has become the master.

Oh, I love it. You know, it's basically the team that has crews throughout the season without a single hitch versus the team that can't seem to make it pass a single post. game without manufacturing, you know, new drama, pretty much. It's truly a yin and yang matchup. It's beautiful. I feel like we were robbed of a LeBron Yannis playoff series. I don't know that's going to happen, but that would have been awesome to watch those guys. Watch a real passing of the torch.

We can only dream. But, I mean, that's why we have this Friday game. There you have it. And remember, if you want to watch every NBA game, subscribe to NBA Pass on NBA.com or your local cable or satellite provider. So... Yeah, I mean, the Lakers are like must watch now every night. Something crazy is going to happen.

LeBron's going to freak out. Like, it's great stuff. I mean, the past five games, he's at what? He's basically averaging a 28-point triple double, shooting 47% from the field. You know, playoff LeBron has been activated or whatever. But... Well, you know... An offense, at least.

Well, hey, you know, if people are saying he's a bad defender, they should just come at him. Oh, here we go. LeBron's quotes. So yeah, it's about that time. Let's throw an outlet pass for the weekend. My favorite game of the weekend is also a game that's happening tonight. It's Clippers Kings, the other two teams that are really fighting for those final two spots along with the Spurs.

The Kings are two games behind the Clippers right now. The Clippers have already kind of won the season series between the two, but at this point, every game is precious. You know, they lost two very winnable games earlier in the week against the wolves, against the Bucks. Marvin Bagley suffered a pretty scary-looking knee injury in the third quarter of that Bucks game, but an MRI showed no structural damage. So we're looking at maybe one to two weeks of an absence. Where do the Kings go from there? I mean, I guess it's going to be Harry Giles. I think really this game will be the battle of the benches. So you look at the numbers, the Clipper Staris had been killed since the trades. So they're starting like Zubatch,

Landry Shamit, SGA, a lot of rookies. Really, their bench has been winning games for them with Lou Williams. They added Jamichael Green, Garrett Temple. Right. And I think how those guys fare against the King's news taking in it without Harry, without Bagley, I think it'll be huge in this game. So last week we talked about how Bealita had kind of basically been evaporated from the rotation. Do you think he comes back? I think he has to now.

Right. It'll be interesting to see how they staggered his minutes versus Bogdan because he's been starting lately. there's a lot of moving parts. That's kind of crazy by these teams. There's a lot of moving parts for both teams because they both really changed the roster of the trade deadline. Yeah.

So, Charks, what's your pick? I mean, I got to stick with Rocket Celtics. First off, just Kyrie post-game. Forget the game itself. I just need to tune in for those two-minute segments. Kyrie's media criticism game is on point. I'm always there for that. It's amazing.

Yeah, it's the game within the game. It's the post-game within the post-game. You know, Kyrie, KD, LeBron. They're just All-Stars on a completely different, like, plane of existence right now. It's just like every single post-game interview they give, it's just, like, gold. It's amazing. Yeah, I mean, it's great for us, for sure, for the content people. I think as far as the actual game, to me, it's Chris Paul.

So since the All-Star break, he's averaging 19 points, nine assists on 47 percent shooting. Of course, he had that great game against Golden State last when Hardin was out when he carried him to a victory. And, I mean, if the Rockets are going to make noise, they got out Chris Paul playing well. We'll see if you keep it going against Boston like that. this is something to watch going forward. Can Chris Paul get back? Has he been sandbagging at all season? Can you get going now towards the playoffs?

Yeah. I mean, it's an interesting matchup for the Rockets, just because you know, you look at the Celtics. They're floundering right now, sure, but they have everything that the Rocket seem to really covet in players that they just don't have right now. It's just like they don't have any kind of length

or any kind of like depth in the perimeter. Yeah, that's see for Houston. was like, if they play OKC in the first round, like, who's going to guard Paul George? Like, Ammon Schumper or Eric Gordon or something? Like, they have no size on the primber at all. And so how they can, how that goes is really important. I mean, you know, Gary Clark, Jr.

had his best game as a pro last night against the heat. Maybe Gary Clark, yeah. He's a guy, I guess. But seriously, where is Daniel House? I thought, like, this was supposed to be the emotion. That's where we're coming. Right. That's where we're going to, yes.

Always time for House talk. So I don't think he. he necessarily qualifies for that whole, you know, where you have to sign as a free agent. There's the deadline for when you are eligible for the playoffs. I don't think he's quite the veteran that applies to, but like,

where is he? I thought this was going to be happening like a week ago. They kept saying, oh, he's hopeful to join the team. It just hasn't happened yet. It's tough because it's like with the agent, do they want a long-term deal.

I know Houston needs to fail at their roster. They have guys on 10 days right now at the end of their bench. So where is Daniel House talk? We're in the pod with that, I think. I mean, like, yeah, like freaking Corey Brewer had, Corey Brewer just got 2 mil guaranteed for the rest of the season. There's like, oh yeah, for the Kings. There's like 20 games left.

That's amazing, but he got 2 mil. So, come on. Tillman Fertito, where are you? Let's do this. He's got to get some of those golden nuggets, man. Come on, Tillman. Tash in some of those casino chips. Okay, I think that's all the time we have for this week.

Thanks as always for listening. KOC will be back next week. So until then, talk to you soon, Jucks. Yeah, have a good one, y'all. It's fun.