The Ringer NBA Show - Is the Playoff Race Still Wide-Open? Plus, NBA Dynasties Vs. Competitive Balance. | Real Ones

Episode Date: April 11, 2024

Howard and Raja react to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf injury, the Mavs' 50 wins behind Luka Doncic’s MVP-level play, and Lindsey Harding's interview for an NBA head-coaching position (2:35). Along the way, they discuss the competitive balance across the league during the Adam Silver era and whether they miss NBA dynasties (19:44). Later, they debate whether the tail end of the playoff race is really that open (33:52). Email us questions for Mailbag Monday! [e-mail] The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Howard Beck and Raja Bell Producer: Jonathan Kermah Production Assistant: Kai Grady Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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New episodes starting March 28th. On Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. What up? It's the Real Ones. Howard Beck, senior writer for The Ringer, sitting in again for Logan Murdoch, who's out there just kind of walking the earth, like cane and kung fu, meeting people, having adventures.

Must be nice. Shut out, Logan. Logan will be back on Monday. So just me and Rajabelle again today. Raja, it's been three days since we did this pod without Logan on Monday. No major complaints or grievances that I'm aware of. No one's calling for me to be fired. I think we made it. I think we pulled this off. Oh, they didn't get my email apparently. I'm glad no one else says beef, but clearly didn't read the emails from me. No, happy to be back with you, Howard. I got to keep it a buck,

man. Like, I said this at the start of last pod. In my previous job, I worked with Danny Cannell, and he drove the pod. Like, he was really good at it. And every, now and again, he'd have a conflict and, and I'd have to drive and ask questions and do that. And it was, it was so unnerving and so difficult. Like, I could never feel like I settled in. You do it. I didn't know you had previous experience, but you do it really well, man. So let's go. I'm ready to rock again. I appreciate that. As you know, being an athlete, it's all about reps. Reps. Absolutely. You yell at a microphone enough times. You figure out how to properly yell at the microphone. I did have one one real one's listener hit me on Twitter to say he missed having

Logan's uh I'm just going to say bye sign off I'm not going to try to stretch it out I can't I can't pull it off I told the listener I appreciate that I just it's not it's not me not advisable I don't know maybe Roger when we sign off today maybe you can do the Logan sign off but I'm not I'm not attempting I don't know that I would do it justice but I mean I could attempt it if if our one listener really needs it. All right, on today's show, Rajah, I want to talk a little bit about the wide open playoff race that feels really, really wide open as we record with just days to go in the regular season. But then I was thinking a little bit like, is it so wide open? So I want to kind of test that theory.

And we all love the parody, except when we don't. Do we miss dynasties? I want to hit that a little bit. But first, a couple just kind of newsier items since you and I last recorded. Janus out for the rest of the regular season with a strange calf muscle. And of course, that sounds more dramatic than maybe it is because rest of the regular season meant at that moment four games, which is another few days. And they did smoke Orlando last night, the Bucks, without Janus. But Raja, I'm just, when we all saw Janus go down, it's that same usual reaction, right?

You see a guy go down with a non-contact injury and holding the part of his leg he was and you worry about it. Thank goodness it was not a blown of a key. Keelees, but strained calf is no picnic either. I don't know if you've dealt with one of those before, but I don't know, man, like when an injury of that nature, serious-ish happens this close to the playoffs and the kind of season they've had already, it starts to become like almost, it feels like an omen, right? Like, I don't know. The buck's cooked, is I guess the question. I think they're cooked, yeah. And, you know, I say that not knowing the degree of strain that he has in his calf. I had a strained calf in the 06 playoffs. It happened against Dallas in game

one. It felt like somebody had kind of hit me in the back with like a paintball or thrown like a plastic cup or something at my calf and you look down and then you're like, oh shit, this hurts. So I know the feeling and I know what it's like to try to come back from that. And so I think I missed two games, game two and game three of the Dallas series. And I came back for game four. And in game four, I mean, I did everything I could. I went to acupuncture to kind of shut the nerves off around the injury so that I could perform the testing that I needed to get on the floor, which was jumping around on dots and doing it in a timely fashion, just trying to demonstrate that I could move. But there was no way I should be really playing basketball.

Like I was just gutting that out. We didn't have enough bodies. We were short, you know, Amari at that point. There were too many people down that I just felt like we needed a body out there. So I say that to say that that injury is not something that is like a one week or two week injury. usually. That injury usually takes a little bit of time to come back, especially when you're trying to guard against what happened to me, which was furthering the strain that lingered all the way through the summer and didn't allow me to really get my body right, because now we're talking about

a domino effect, right? Like, we're going into the summer with an injury that's lingering. I can't train the way I need to train. I can't get my body in the shape it needs to be in. And then I can't come back at the level I need to be to start next season, exposing myself to more injuries, right? And I did have a bad back the next year a little bit. So the point is, if I am the brass in Milwaukee and I know that we have a very small window potentially with Janice and Dame, I am being uber careful with that. I am not just sending him back out there to potentially lose in the second round. I got to look at that from a 360 deep dive.

That is not one of those injuries that you mess around with. I didn't even mention the ramifications. If it's a low calf strain, I don't know where in the belly of his cap that is. but if it's a low enough calf strain, now you start to deal with the potential of a KD situation, right? It's a high calf strain, I think you're okay. But I just wouldn't, I don't know that risking that in the first round if he's not 100% healthy, which I can't imagine he will be is worth it.

Yeah, and, you know, obviously we won't know until we get there in terms of his recovery process, but we know he's healed really quickly from what looked like really bad injuries in the past, different thing. But like, I think it was the year they won the championship, right, where he had, um, the knee and it looked so gruesome when he first, when it buckled and he went down and it was like, oh my God, did he blow out his knee? And he didn't. It was, I can't remember what they ended up calling it

that year. And he came back, you know, like, and half the time that he was supposed to and was fine. So like, who knows? Sometimes with those knees and stuff, Howard, like you, it's just a matter, like, you strain, you strain something in your knee. I mean, there could be structural, like, instability and if that's the case, you know, we're talking about something else. But if it's just like, oh, I hyper extended it, it's a little swollen. There's a little bit of fluid in that. Like, you could play and not really put yourself in real jeopardy on that, right? It's just a matter of like my knee feels it's the best way to describe that, like full. It feels like there's more fluid in it, like, but there's no real instability in the joint. But with a pulled muscle, like, you could

continue to pull it and continue to tear the muscles in a way that, because I know he he's a quick killer and he's a tough he's a dog of a player so i i bet he would be doing everything he could to come back we were in the western conference finals so like i had a i had a call to make there man we could potentially make the finals and it wasn't an easy one but i don't know that i'd be doing that in the first round it ain't going to be getting better if he's playing on it every night i promise you that well and it's been such a weird up and down season for them anyway and it's it's you don't want to necessarily start making the calculations this way but you do which is you know and you kind of alluded to this, is it worth it? Is it worth risking whatever it may be for what looks like a really

wonky season for them anyway? Like, what are the odds that they're actually going to make a finals run? What are the odds they're actually going to beat the Celtics should they get there, even if they were at full strength, given just how disjointed they've looked a lot of the time? That said, you know, as you and I record this with two games to go, they're right on the verge of 50 wins. So they're kind of in that plausible contender range. I don't, I mean, I don't know anybody's getting through Boston in the east. But the bucks have like a, they're one up in the lost column on the Knicks at the two and three. So, you know, the, the, the beauty and the madness of today's NBA is that we have no idea still what the first round matchups are going to be.

If the bucks stay where they are, the two, seven could be the bucks against the Sixers. They're currently slotted seventh, but, you know, the playing has to take place first. And the Sixers, I think can still plausibly get to six and get out of the play in. But even if the Bucks, you know, they stay in two, they draw the Pacers. Maybe they win that. Second round now might be the Knicks who are going to be tough as hell. The Bucks could still slip to three. They could, I think even still slip to four.

I haven't done all the math in the tiebreakers. We don't know where they'll end up in the bracket and therefore don't know who they're playing in the first round, much less how to, you know, map out second round and then try to game out well. if we could just wait for Janus, if we can just get through, if Dame can carry us for a little bit, if Middleton can carry us. It's just, I don't envy the position they're in.

And on top of that, context matters too. The context of this team being, they had just a colossal collapse in the first round a year ago. And as an organization, they're still kind of dealing with that, right? Like it's why Buddenholtzer's not there. It's why Dame Lillard is there. It's why, it's why everything. And you don't, you know, after everything they've done to try to restore themselves to contender status, this is not really the way you want to go into the playoffs with this kind of cloud over you.

So I don't know how they're going to handle it, but I don't envy them. Mavericks. Mavericks just got their 50th win, second time in three years. And with that, there's been just, you know, Lucas Surge kind of got them to 50 wins. And then the 50 wins, I think, will also help propel him a little bit. you and I on Monday both kind of dismissively said, oh, it's definitely Yokic at the top. But like, getting to the 50 win mark symbolically and practically is really important in the MVP race. And I have already seen, including from our colleague Michael Pina, who wrote up his ballot for the ringer this, it's up this morning.

He's got Luca in second, but his real point was Luca versus Yokic is a real debate or should be. And, you know, there is this danger we get into. This happens a lot since we discuss. MVP so much these days from start to finish of every NBA season. You can have the danger of getting a little too locked in. And I'm going to try to do the Adam Silver trademark, quote unquote, fresh look. Adam Silver likes the fresh look. I'm going to try to do the fresh look at the MVP race before I lock in there.

But Luke is going to be, I think, two on a lot more ballots than he would have been as of a couple weeks ago. There's now five teams. I'm saying the Mavs getting to 50. There's now five teams in the West with 50 plus wins. Denver, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Dallas, the Clippers. The Pelicans are at 47 and 32 and could mathematically get to 50, but they'd have to beat Sacramento and the Warriors both on the road

and then finish at home against the Lakers. So I don't think they're going to get there. And then the only matchup we've got locked in so far with days to go here is Clippers and Mavs as the four or five and we don't even know who's got home court yet so here we are it's a thursday with the season ending sunday and everything's still up in the air it's awesome it's crazy um yeah it's enjoyable nobody can plan for anything it's a little it's a little maddening for the teams but uh we'll get back to that in a minute um one more quick uh news item before we get kind of back to the big picture um lindsie harding who was just named the g league coach of the year with the stockton kings uh first woman

to win that award, is interviewing for the Charlotte Hornets job. And, you know, Lindsay Harding, of course, played at Duke, number one overall pick of the WMBA draft in 2007, played nine years in the W. And I think she's only the second person, second woman after Becky Hammond, to have interviewed for head coaching jobs in the NBA at all. Of course, lots of women have moved on to the benches over the last five to ten years, but we haven't seen that breakthrough moment yet. Rajah, what did you think when you saw the news of Lindsay Harding interviewing for the Hornets job?

Is it whether or not she gets that job? Is it time for this to happen? Is it time for that barrier to fall? I don't know how to even answer what the right time is, probably five minutes ago, 10 years ago. But it's probably always past time. But I don't know how much you know of Lindsay and her coaching or track record to date. But what did you think? Yeah, I mean, I thought it was pretty cool.

I don't know much about Lindsay. I don't follow the G League very much. So, like, that would be the only reason I don't. As far as whether it's time, like, I mean, yeah, the time is, the time is coming. I don't know what the right time is, but there's some brilliant minds out there, you know, in all different sexes, shades, religions in terms of, you know, everything. And so basketball would be the same thing. You don't have to fit a certain, you know, stereotype to be able to coach it, to be able to articulate your message, to be able to organize and, and sell what you think can win a championship.

So, yeah, man, I think I think it's time. It's going to be interesting to see what team takes that step and, and, you know, makes history like that. But I think it's fantastic. I think if I'm being honest with you, they were, you know, and, you know, and, you know, in my generation of player, that might have been a harder sell. You know, we were just in a different time, you know, as a, as a world. Like you might have, you had, because my generation, I was young when I came in, right, obviously. And those dudes, you had dudes in there that were, they were already 40. So they were from a generation before me.

But now, I don't, I don't think it's a deal at all, man. I think boys are like, look, if, if you're talking the language and what you're selling is working, let's get it. I think generationally and just the evolution of society, right? it's how the society evolves around you for whatever generation you're in that kind of determines to an extent broadly, not at the individual level, but broadly, whether people are quote unquote ready for whatever it may be. And I do think that this generation, like we've had, whether it's women referees, which have increased in numbers in the last five to ten years,

women on the bench, which when you were playing Raja, when I first started covering the league, there were no women on NBA benches at all. There were no women in front offices. It's this generation's used to it enough, I think, that it shouldn't feel like some major thing. It will be that anyway, because that's every barrier that's broken is significant, and we will cover it as such when it happens. But yeah, I don't think it should be in any way shocking. We ask this question, and it's funny, you know, it's always like, well, are people ready for it? Or, you know, is the league ready for? The players ready for it.

And it really comes down to the players, right? But it gets projected, right? We project like, oh, our players going to accept this. I'd be curious to know as, you know, team owners and GMs who are the ones making these decisions. Like, are they testing their own theories on that? And is it really their own sexism possibly that's holding it back, right? Because the easy thing to do is say, well, we didn't go down that road because we weren't sure our, you know, team would. But now you're projecting.

And no one's, of course, ever going to say that on the record. But if you ask why it hasn't happened yet, that's the only reason it could have happened. It's not for a lack of qualified individuals, qualified women. We have seen plenty of male coaches in this league either go straight from, if they were a former NBA player, you can be Doc Rivers to go straight from the broadcast booth to head coach without even being an assistant. Or Derek Fisher did it. Jason Kidd did it. Steve Nash did it.

Steve Nash did it. But for most people, it's the assistant coach route, right? Well, we've had career assistants who did not play a minute in the NBA. Greg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, never played in the NBA. So you can't say it's required to have NBA experience as a player. Let me look at the guys right now who are some of the best in the league. You've got former film room guys. Frank Vogel was a film room guy once upon a time.

Mike Brown was a film room guy once upon a time. Eric Spolstra. You've got Nick Nurse who played in the British League and then came up through what was still the D-League. Michael Malone never played in the NBA. Obviously, his father was an NBA coach, so it's a little different kind of pedigree. Mike Boodenholes never played in the NBA. As I mentioned, Nick Nurse, Chris Finch, Mark Dagnell, we still don't even know how to pronounce

Mark Dagnol's last name correctly. Dagnol, Dagnol, is the G silent? I don't know. But he's awesome. And he never played in the NBA, and he's super young. If all of these different archetypes can make it to NBA, head coach without concern for whether they were ready or anything else, then I can't see how it's any kind of risk for somebody to hire,

you know, Lindsay Harding or Jenny Busick or Becky Hammond, Don Staley, whoever it may be. Someone's got to just get over it. It shouldn't feel like a bold move. It will in the moment, but just do it. Once that barrier falls, then we won't have to have the discussion in this context anymore.

But it's coming. coming sooner than later. And, you know, it'd be amazing to see the Hornets do it. And, you know, look to the extent that a team that is still trying to find its way as the Hornets are, maybe it feels like less of a risk, right? Stakes aren't as high as putting a first time head coach or somebody who has to deal with all the discussion and burdens of being a trailblazer. Maybe easier when it's in a market where the scrutiny and the expectations wouldn't be that high right off. And maybe that, that, you know, mitigates it a little bit. I don't know. But it's coming. Yeah, it's coming. It's just a matter of time. Adam Silver met with the media

yesterday, Board of Governors meeting, as is his usual thing. No real major news broken. Oh, he did address the officiating changes, however we want to call him over the course of the season. He says it's amounting to only like two fewer fouls per game per team. And, you know, he just kind of acknowledged there had been, you know, a different kind of inflection point, I guess there. I don't know. Did you watch any of Adam's presser or anything strike you on that, Roger? Nah. You didn't miss much.

Not great TV. It's, you know. Yeah, the state of the league, like I've, I used to be tapped into those and then I watched enough of them where I mean, like, are you really telling me anything that, that, that, that that you don't want me to know, I guess is like you're, you know what I mean? Like I don't, I don't, I don't watch those, man. Like, I'm watching basketball games. Like I don't need Adam Silver to tell me or David Stern or any of them to tell me where

the league is at and what the referees. I don't need that. I'm watching the games, my boy. For sure. An interesting moment here where my buddy, Vinnie Goodwill from Yahoo Sports, asked Adam of just about this surge of parity because Adam, even going back to when he was deputy commissioner under David Stern, and during that lockout in 2011, it was Adam who was kind of giving the NBA's company

line about 30 teams, if well managed, you know, have a chance to compete for a title, blah, blah, blah, blah. So we have associated parity and the quest for, parody with Adam, much more so than with David. And as Vinny noted in his story today, coming off of his question to Adam about parity, Vinny noted, and I always think of it too, when you think about David Stern and you asked him about, somebody wants asked him, what's the ideal finals? And David just deadpanned Lakers versus Lakers, which was funny on two levels, right?

because one, it was acknowledging that, like, the ratings bonanza would just be Lakers versus Lakers because all Lakers all the time is always seemingly good for the league. But also at that time, it was the Shack and Kobe era. And literally the Lakers were going against the Lakers at times. So that it was great. It worked on multiple levels. But this era, the Adam Silver era, has been marked by just increasing parity, right? We've had five different champions in a five-year span, which hadn't happened since the late 70s.

We could have a sixth if the muggots don't repeat, which is probably more likely than not just given the odds. And so here was the stat that Vitty threw at Adam Silver yesterday. 13 teams, so that's nearly half the league, were between 44 and 49 wins as of yesterday. And this is with just days to go in the regular season. So really incredible. Raja just open-ended question first. just this this version of the league with this much competitive balance. Do you find it as a former player and fan who's watching the game day to day to

be more interesting this way? Is it, how do you, because I think the tough part is we go into the end of the regular season here thinking, like, I still have no feel for this, which could be good or bad. You know, that's interesting because I'm kind of, I wear two hats, right? Like I wear my former player hat. And when I'm wearing that hat, I think it's awesome to have, you know, teams that this late in the season, you could sit here and debate on whether or not they really have a shot at it because no one's really completely pulled away from them.

And there's a tier of teams right below them that's pushing up against them. And so I find that really interested in awesome for the league. And if I was a player in the league, option-wise, like in terms of free agency, If I was on the open market, like that's really encouraging, right? Because you're not, they're way more options potentially to to play in the Western Conference or Eastern Conference finals or even the finals because they're way more viable, you know, and healthy teams outside of that maybe top tier or top one or two teams in the league. Now, you're asking me as a fan, as a fan, I like the dynasties.

I'm just going to keep it a buck. like I find myself from night to night, like tapping in to different teams and just kind of surfing a little bit. But I felt more invested in teams when they were dynastic like that. I just did. Like I was, you know, I watched the Golden State or I wanted to see what Cleveland was doing. Or even when I played, I was watching Miami Heat games because those teams were so good. So, you know, I could make a case for both. I think as a fan, I like kind of a dynasty, but as a former player and just a lifer and a hoop head,

I think the parody is great and the options to go. Like, for instance, when I was a free agent the last time, you were either signing in Miami or you probably weren't winning a championship, right? And no, like it was. Like, you were signing in Miami or you weren't winning a championship. And the Miami Heat offered me the minimum. And so it was literally like, yo, you want this championship, come play for the minimum. And I was like, man, you know, like I hadn't done enough yet.

And there was still some more money on the table. But I had to take that knowing that that situation might be competitive, but realistically was not going to beat the heat. And so I think from that perspective, I like the fact that there's parity. And there are other options out there. Oh, word? Like, it doesn't have to be Boston. Like, I go to Milwaukee. I go to Philly.

I can go to New York. Like, you know, that's just Eastern Conference. But, man, I like dynasties too. So I'm kind of conflicted, Howard. It's tough, right? Because when we talk about the value of it, like, just say from a commercial standpoint, marketing standpoint, ratings, whatever, yeah, like, dynasties drive interest in the postseason especially, right?

Like, it's great to have some superpower that everybody's either for or against because they're very polarizing. Dynasties are polarizing. So everybody's either on their bandwagon or they're rooting against them. They want to see them fail. And that makes for great theater. And it makes for great ratings. especially in the finals.

But the drawback of dynasties is that, you know, and we saw this to an extent during those years where it was the Warriors versus Cavs for X number of years in a row or Warriors versus LeBron X number of years in a row and LeBron going to eight straight finals where if you go into the season feeling like everybody already knows the outcome,

even if you don't really know, things happen, we're always wrong. But it kind of tamps down or takes a little bit of the mystique out of, it, right? You need some uncertainty. Sports relies on uncertainty and the possibility for an upset, the possibility for something unexpected happening. And there have been times where the league kind of lost that. The inevitability of the Warriors, once they got Durant, like, they were super fun to watch in terms of the basketball. It was beautiful basketball. And watching two all-time

greats like Steph and Kevin Durant together, like who could not want that on an aesthetic level, right? But on a competitive level, yeah, everybody who didn't want that, unless you were a hardcore Warriors fan, pretty much everybody else was like, well, okay, it's interesting. It's fun to watch, but it's not fun to watch them just steamroll people or, you know, have them smoke the calves as easily as they did a couple years in a row. It just felt fate accompli is not a good outcome for sports. And yet, and yet, the NBA has always been about dynasties, right? The Celtics in a couple different areas, the Lakers in a couple different areas, the bulls of the 90s, the spurs, and the warriors more recently. And we like, we kind of define and tell the story of the NBA through the dynasties more than anything, or even like the mini dynasties, right? Like the bad boys pistons, I don't, like, I don't consider them a dynasty because my own definition is like you've got to win at least three in a five year span and like the pistons winning back to back or the rocket's winning back to back. Those are great. It's, you won back to back,

which is hard. But those are to me more like mini dynasties. But even those moments, Raja, are the way that we all kind of remember like the course of NBA history. It's how we tell the story. And I do wonder if we've kind of like lost something here where it's like five champions of five years, like extreme parity. And everything's wide open.

But I don't know. I do wonder if we've lost something. I don't know if there's, I don't know if there's a good answer here, right? Like both extremes are going to be, feel like we've lost something. It's interesting because the question probably won't be answered until the next generation, right?

If we stay in this type of, you know, relatively level playing field teams and you're going to have a new champion every year. The next generation and how the game is remembered, like how this generation of fan tells the next generation of fan about their fandom. I mean,

So my fandom, to your point, when I tell it to my kids, it's rooted in dynasties, right? Like, that's all we knew coming up. And so to your point, it tells the story of it. Like, there was a love or a hate or there were like real relationships that you could dig into on either side of the ledger with them. And so it's just going to be interesting to hear this, like my boys are in their window. My boys are in their window right now. They don't love the NBA like I did. they don't love it like I did.

They're not attached to it like I was. They're not like a Bulls fan and we hate the Pistons and we hate the Celtics or vice versa or a Lakers fan. They just don't. And so I watch them and I'm interested to see like when they have kids like what they're going to say about their NBA fandom or lack thereof. And I think that would be the answer to your question whether it was good or not for the NBA, which was better. Because I find that it was my youth for sure, but it felt like a golden time, right? And I only use my boys because they're my barometer for most everything. My world revolves.

You're not on here all the time, but my world revolves around these kids now just because we're getting them to everything. So when they were younger and the heat were legit, tapped in. When Golden State was rolling, I had Steph Curry, fans, jersey, shoes, like tapped in. Now, they're older now. And so, you know, maybe not sitting there watching as much with me as they did then, but don't have the same level of attachment to it. I don't know if it's because of the dynasty or not, but I do find that interesting.

Are your kids reflective also of this whole shift toward, like, players over teams anyway? Because I think, like, even if we had a reigning dynasty, I feel like this generational shift where a lot of fans now are just more about, like, there can't be a rivalry if you don't have anybody you hate because you just love players, right? And you don't, you're not rooting for a team or against a team because you're just attached to the players. Are your kids reflective of that? 100%

there are two things 100% that them and all of their buddies are guy John Moran's my guy or this is my guy and that's they ride with them

not the team for sure and what I also should give credence to is the fact that like they today's generation a kid rarely is sitting there

watching anything for two hours they're just not they're not sitting there with me through a game I might capture their imagination and get them locked in for a quarter

but after a quarter I'm looking over there on their phone they're like they're out so they don't consume it the same way and they are more fans of the individual. So sure, that has something to do with it. Yeah, I guess if viewing habits are

locked like that, then like even, it doesn't matter if you have dynasties or not. Like, that's not necessarily going to change. Yeah, in fairness, like that's, yeah, there are other factors that are outside of that. But I do, I do find it, I do find that interesting because they're going to coincide, like they do coincide, right? Like the lack of dynasties with the different viewership, what does that mean for the NBA product in a generation is going to be interesting? So Adam's response to Vinny's question, included this line. He says with less than a week to go, we have one team that's locked in its seed right now. And that includes essentially 20 slots when you build in the playing tournament. So he's saying, yeah, there's like 20 slots up for grad.

You're up for grabs, right? The 12 playoffs up spots. And then the four play in spots in each conference. And he's, Adam says, quote, I'm thrilled with the level of competition. So like, he clearly, from his vantage point, does not miss having a dynasty for everybody. to be either rallying for or against. Like this really is like Adam's ideal. I mean, it might be, but that's why I say I don't watch those because what's he go. Of course that's what he's going to get up there. But he doesn't.

I think he genuinely, I think, this is a slight exaggeration. I think Adam would be thrilled if every single team in the league was somehow 500 with the exact same payroll and the exact same level of talent. Like he really does love this idea. Like it's obviously you can't actually. get to that and it would be boring if every team were you know hovering around 500 yeah no but i hear you i mean i i i hear i hear that i just i haven't done a deep dive into like what the what the ratings say in regards to that like but i just asking the same question if if he comes back to the negotiating table

the next time and they're like yeah man too much parity i think it'd be seeing a different tune well also also if you if like ratings started to drop off and you did the market study that said that like, oh yeah, people really miss having dynasties. Right. You'd be like, no, okay. Let's give all the advantages back to the big markets again and let them spend whatever the hell they want so we can build some more dynasties.

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All right. So, but it brings us to like the state of things as we hit into this final weekend, right? Like, I don't even want to bother trying to handicap the any races because we still don't even know the brackets, which again, maddening and beautiful at the same time. When we come back Monday, when Logan's back with us, we'll at least know the play in matchups and we'll have a little bit better feel for everything. But in the meantime, let me just test the theory, Raja. We keep talking about, oh, it's wide open. Look at all these teams with 50 plus wins in the West. And sure, Denver's the favorite, but look at Dallas. Look at the clippers when they're fully healthy. You know, look at Thunder, the Timberwolves. And then Boston, it's like, oh, well, Boston's got like, you know, 13 and gained something lead in the east. It's crazy how far away they've run. But it's, yeah, but, you know, if Ambide is, and Embedd is back right now, and he's looking

pretty good. But, you know, can the Sixers make a run from the lower seed? We never rule out the heat because the heat are unkillable. The Knicks have continued to do amazing things even without Julius Randall. And so we talk ourselves into this idea, I think. Maybe we have that there is a wide open race, especially in the West, maybe more so than in the East. And we talk about all these different teams that we try to theorize might make it a race or might knock off Boston, might knock off Denver. And then I started to wonder, are we fooling ourselves?

is it actually or are we really just heading toward like an inevitability of like Nugget Celtics anyway? I hear you. I think that there are a handful of teams. I would definitely take Boston and Denver to be prohibitive favorites but I think there are

a handful of teams that could challenge both of them. Now to what degree I think that that Philly Boston while I would take Boston you know that could be interesting. You know Embed and Maxie and what Embed is capable of doing, you know, if he's healthy with Boston's kind of

falling asleep at the wheel from time to time. If they've gotten over those demons like that, you know, that could be interested to me. I wouldn't put Milwaukee in that category, although I would have prior to the injury, even though they weren't playing great, they're one of those teams with that level of talent that if they clicked it in or for some reason you weren't playing great, maybe. Yeah, the West, I might say Denver's more of a favorite for me than Boston, if that's fair. And I know Boston's been the number one team in the league all year.

But I think just because I've seen them get over that hump, and there are some real viable teams out there. I think they all have reasons that I could point to for them being really good. And then they all have a flaw here or there. But as I'm looking at it, I mean, yeah, I think I'm going to take Denver. So listen, I'm formulating these thoughts as I'm rambling and kind of vomiting at the mouth. But I think you're right in that it's probably Denver and Boston. Philly is interested in me.

it's a rare thing. It feels it's becoming less rare now with the play in and just that parity is pushing very good teams into play in spots and into lower seeds. And then we're seeing like, you know, the heat run to the finals last year from a lower seed. And the Lakers running to the Western Conference finals from a lower seed. So it may just become more of the norm. Like that may just be the offshoot of this era of parity that we should get used to this. In which case, we shouldn't be so dismissive of, you know, oh, hey, the Sixers got their best player back. after a couple of months, sure, of course they can make a run from down there,

because if they had never lost Embed, we would have been talking about the Sixers being on the Celtic Seals all season. So, but it's, it's, it's, it feels like a little bit of, of a stretch still to me. And then, you know, the thing of the West is, as much parody as there is, the teams that are trying to knock out Denver, even though record wise, everybody's within, you know, a stone's throw of each other, they're not really at the same. place in their evolution, right? Like Denver's a low 50s win team with a championship in hand and a core that's been together for a long time and the best player in the NBA guy who's who's probably winning a third MVP in four years. Whereas the Thunder and the wolves, the Clippers, the Mavs, like these are teams that like they've had kind of a similar regular season, but it's, well, do we do we buy the Thunder despite their youth? And do we just do we buy the Timberwolves despite their lack of postseason?

success and Towns coming back any minute now, but he hasn't been in there for a bit. Yeah, that's really interesting to me. Carl Anthony Towns, if healthy and back at 85% of himself, Howard, I would say the same thing about them that I said about the Sixers in the East. I'd say, like, yeah, I'm keeping an eye on that. It's very interesting and a very interesting potential threat for Denver. Right. And I don't know why I feel that way.

I don't mean to like boil it down to giving you four teams that that I think could potentially win it. But that in my gut, if you're asking me my gut, that's kind of the way I feel about it without any analytic breakdown. No, no, no. But that's, I think that's where I'm going with this is like, but there's two possibilities here. We're giving way too much, you know, credit to the idea that parity means it's wide open to both conferences, which I'm, I'm kind of going the other way right now. I feel like maybe we've, some of these teams are going to get a little exposed when it when it actually push comes to. shove. But to the extent that Denver and Boston have been and remain the two, like, obvious choices to be favorites, if we took it as an assumption right now on April 11th, that neither

of them is going to make it for some reason or another, then who is that's actually knocking off Boston in this scenario? Who is it that's actually knocking out Denver in this scenario? because I don't think it's going to happen. I especially don't think Boston's getting knocked out. But we've been surprised before. So if it's not those two, then who do we think it is? Minnesota, Philly? Is that where you're landing?

This is so crazy because you could look across the West. And this is like matchups. There are a few teams. Like I just said Minnesota, but I would also tell you that Dallas would be an interest in one for me. I know the Lakers would say because of LeBron and AD, but the Lakers have lost their last eight games against Denver. Like I don't, like that their size that everyone says, hey, in the playoffs, this and that,

that doesn't seem to be an issue with Denver. I do think, though, that Kyrie and Luca could be a problem for Denver. Do you know? So I would put Dallas in that mix, just shooting straight from my stomach here. But yeah, then it would only be, for me, Philly in the East and probably Minnesota and Dallas in the West. I have probably said it on this pot before, but I've been a little slow to come around on Dallas as a true contender.

But there's a lot of indicators that suggest that they are. And when I put this question to someone with another Western Conference team within the last week and just said, you know, kind of a similar question. Like, all right, so are we assuming too much about the outcome here, especially in the West? And this is somebody, again, with another team, immediately said, like, Dallas. Dallas is the team that they're keeping an eye on, that they think, like, if someone's going to knock out Denver, if somebody else is going to merge from the West, that's the one that this person had their eye on. And I think it's, yeah, Luca and Kyrie have kind of figured out their best balance between them and their chemistry. That team has manufactured some sort of defensive identity in the back half of the season that I don't know that they've always had the last couple of years. They really, really haven't. I don't know why, Raja. I, I don't know. I, I don't know why, Raja. I, I, I, I, I, still, I'm just hesitant with them. I'm not, I'm not sure what it is. Like the, the, the, the, the, the, the, uh, the creativity and scoring punch of that back court is, is absolutely undeniable.

They've been able to find something. Like, and it's, and they're really fun to watch. I just don't know if I trust them when it comes right down to it, especially against a team like Denver that will never beat itself down the stretch of a game. This is, this is, this is, this is, I wasn't singing this tune a month and two months ago. So being a little apprehensive about it, I could completely understand that. I just know, like, haven't been in these series, man, when you're talking about like all-time, you know, great series that I was in. Like, let's say that Eastern Conference semis in 01 that we were talking about between AI and Vince. And everybody played great.

But at the end of the day, it was a shot making, like, who's shot maker is better? Like, who's going to make bigger shots and who can consistently do it that ultimately, you know, was the design. this idon factor. You go to like, I don't know, my, my, my,

06 Clippers' sons where Elton Brand and, and Chris came in and Catino Mobley and then, you know, we had our group, like it was who was going to be able to, to make those big shots.

Did you have a guy that most of these games are tight? Like in the last two and a half minutes, can you give your guy the ball? And can he get buckets no matter what we do? Do you have capable pieces around him to shoot in case we're doubling and so on and so forth? But so much of it boils down to that. And I know how stupid that sounds and it sounds really reductive. But so much of it will come down to in playoff games, minute and a half to go, three point game.

We've all exhausted every set we have at our disposal. We're just going to give our fucking guy the ball and do what you do, Luca or or anybody else for that matter. Right? Like, Nicola, go crazy. And so the teams that have those type of players in spades or like the top end, like a top top, top end two guys and the top end of that type of player, I always think they're really dangerous, especially if we can point to them being, you know, solid defensively

and having a solid support and cast and all of that, right? Like that's scary for me in the playoffs. Well, we've got four more nights of games to go. Although I guess Sunday, not nights. Sunday's all day games. Everybody plays at either one or three-thirty. because of the way the NBA schedules it to, because they want everybody to finish at the same time to get those races settled.

And by the end of Sunday, hopefully we'll actually know who's eligible for all the awards, too. The NBA, though I flashed this on Monday's pod, I said, you know, hey, ballots coming any minute now. The NBA did not actually send us the ballots. They sent us a note that said, we will get the ballots in electronic form once the season is concluded because they actually have to figure out who's eligible based on their, ridiculous new 65 game stuff. And I say ridiculous not because I think the premise is ridiculous to have minimum games. It's just more like it's it has complicated things.

I think needlessly, I don't think we actually needed this rule, but whatever. That's a rant for another day. But we will we will buy Sunday night not only have some seatings and some play-in teams. We will know who's eligible for all these awards. Some guys still on the fence on Monday. We will have Logan Murdoch back. this chair driving the show, I can just kick back again and, you know, ramble like I do. It's good to be able to ramble sometimes. A good ramble is so underrated.

Rambling and ranting are, I think, my two best talents. Raja, we got through it a whole week without Logan. Look at us. I think we deserve to work. It was a pleasure. It was a pleasure, Howard. Bye. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, and Vermont. Call 1-800-next-N-Ext-step or text next step to 533-4-2 in Arizona. 1-888-78-9-77-7-7-7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

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