The Ringer NBA Show - Late-Season Panic Meter | Group Chat

Episode Date: March 11, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos take a look at five Western Conference teams and decide where they land on the panic meter. (03:40) Timberwolves (14:39) Clippers (24:08) Kings (32:50) Mavericks (47:28) Warriors Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely and Tucker Tashjian Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a world where coaches are still the main characters, the players are now legally chasing the ultimate bag, and the game of basketball is always the top priority. There was only one brand you can trust to help you wade through all the madness. Hey, I'm Tate Frazier from One Shiny Podcast, and you can join me twice a week as we navigate the always entertaining world of college basketball. Every Monday, the ringer's comment helps me make sense of the biggest stories from the weekend, and on Fridays we talk to our many friends of the program. We're locked in on the best postseason in sports. Make sure you follow OneShining Podcasts on Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. And welcome to group chat.

I am Justin Barrier, joining me, as always, Rob Mahoney, Big Was. Welcome to Hollywood's biggest night, my friends. That, of course, is the group chat podcast. Rob, who are you wearing today? Yeah, I actually forgot my tucks. I feel really underdressed here, guys. I was wondering about this before we got on here.

If there were clips about our performances this season, what would your guys' highlight be? What would you want it to be? I feel like for Waz, it's got to be him popping off like a four-minute Joelle and Bede rant from like November. That would be that would be the one I would submit to the Academy. Justin, for you, it's got to be nuggets related some way. I don't know, I don't know which one, but that's you in your rarest form, I feel like. I would nominate either a Joelle rant or a Ben Simmons.

rant of which I've had many. There's time for one of those today if you want to sneak that in. I would say for me it would be just sniffing some spice and then just like predicting something into the future. I'm just like, just hollis Turner will get paid. Yeah, and you'll be like

the one, the one. All right, but on today's docket, we got a late season edition of panic meter. We typically do this and we do do this early in the season after about a month or so of games, but it feels like teams are in panic mode later in the season than as is usual. We've got about five teams on the docket here, mostly Western Conference teams. We are using the DefCon system like we did last time. So five to one,

five being the least threatening situation, at least troublesome situation, one being the biggest honking issue. So DefCon five, for the listeners at home who don't have this tattooed to their arms. Is small sample size theater. Nothing to see here. DefCon 4. You have part of my attention. You have the minimum amount. DefCon 3. Rob has to reluctantly write a blog post about it.

DefCon 2. Ramona Shelburne publishes a big feature entitled The Sands of Time, Battlebots and what it means to be a man in post-war Vietnam. Why Team X is standing at a crossroads and DefCon 1, fire everyone. when can we get a was assignment into the defcon scale like it's the lead segment on in my feelings this week well here's the thing i thought about doing a was one but waz would be game to do it he would be ready in a moment you would you would the reluctance is the part it's a crucial part of my whole identity i find um where do we want to start here five teams rob do you have a preference i think we got to start

with the Timberwolves. That feels like the biggest, the biggest flashpoint of panic and the biggest shift in our expectations, probably, as far as all these panicking teams, going from, you know, the fully or at least largely healthy Timberwolves and all the questions they had

to now a whole different set of considerations without Carl Anthony Towns for at least the next four weeks is what's projected until he gets re-evaluated. And so it could be even longer than that from that point out. And I think what's most concerning of that timeline is even say he gets back in exactly four weeks. weeks. Not only is that putting the wolves in a tough spot in terms of the standings, in terms of

what they would be as a playoff team, but Carl Anthony Towns with a meniscus injury coming back, like we think of Minnesota as this jumbo team and that as being their identity, but it only works because towns can guard some wings and guard some guards because he is explosive and he can drive and pump fake and attack the basket and get into the paint off the move. Like how dynamic he is, is the only reason any of this functions. And so the idea of that guy, the kind of lynch-pin player of that operation offensively, which isn't perfect, but works at a regular season level, if he's going to be compromised, everything they're doing feels extra compromised. And that, again, that's the best case version when he comes back, much less everything in the meantime.

Yeah, I was actually thinking about this. And I was like, oh, maybe, you know, it'll be like a situation back when Memphis was good when Jow would sit, what would end up happening is that they would just turn into this world beating defensive unit because Jow was their weakest link on defense and they would mall people on defense and do just enough on offense to keep the thing rolling and win. The problem with that theory, even though traditionally defense has been Carl Towns' weakness and it's been Minnesota's strength, quite frankly, that's just not been the case this year. Their defense is good partly because Carl Towns has been good at defense. And then his replacement, Nas Reid, not so much.

He's not a defensive stalwart. And so I think they're going to have major problems. And then another part of this is that we saw this team last year without Carl Towns. It wasn't good. They didn't take off, so to speak, until he came back at the very end of the season. And, you know, quite famously had the best playoff run of anybody last year. here according to Carl Towns, right? And so, yeah, I think it's right that we think these guys are going to struggle in his

absence. I just don't know how they're going to score. On the one hand, this is an Anthony Edwards showcase. On the other hand, every team in the league now knows this is an Anthony Edwards showcase because they're starting Kyle Anderson right now. And there really isn't many other options other than Edwards out there. I believe he took 35 shots in that first game post-town's injury against. the Pacers. And he had it going. So like more power to him. On the other hand, that was his career

high. A lot of shots are going to be coming his way. It's just like there isn't any sort of outlet to do that because Anderson isn't a good shooter. I mean, you're asking a lot of Gobert to step into an offense of role. Jaden McDaniels. That's not really his game. Mike Conley seems to be actually diminishing as the season goes on here. So like I'm looking at this like the defense might still be good, but like, they're going to struggle as they did against the cabs to even get past 100 points. Yeah, that's the issue. And ideally, in a perfect world, you would love to plug Nasreid into the starting

lineup for that reason. Put him with your better defensive personnel, get more scoring punch into the starting five. The issue with that is their bench is so shallow for scoring otherwise, you kind of have to stagger him and aunt or else you're just not going to be able to get anything done on that second unit. So that's why we see Kyle Anderson in the starting lineup. But the reality is neither of those groups in terms of the four remaining starters,

plus Anderson or Nasreed, have been successful scoring at all this season, just have not been able to get off of the launch pad in that regard. What it gives me some confidence is the baseline is so high because their defense is so good that the wolves have basically not had a losing streak all season. They've been really good at, you know, they've had some embarrassing losses, and they get up and they dust themselves off pretty effectively. that's going to be put to the test in a different way. And so I do have confidence in the resilience that they've shown.

I just also think this is going to be a totally different kind of adversity as far as putting this version of the team forward in a way that is actually functional on offense without Kat. That's something they really have not had to do with this incarnation, with this kind of swagger and the success they've had this season. And I don't know where they're going to find it. So where are we on the DefCon scale was? Five to one.

I'm a three. I got to warm up the blog post. I'm a three because fortunately for them, they've built up a nice record and even if they falter,

they're going to be squarely in the, you know, four, five, whatever range. Even if they have a bad stretch here. There's enough, you know, there's enough. There's going to be enough.

like cupcakes on the schedule, that they could paper over this thing. And Carl Towns is going to come back. So I'm not crazy panic. However, when I think about how they're going to get over this, you mentioned Mike Connolly. The guy barely looks for a shot anymore. He used to in spots when he thought it was necessary, would aggressively hunt those floaters that he became so famous for.

You know, when guys would try to duck under screens, like hunt that pull up three, point shot. He just hasn't been that for a little while. And then, you know, McDaniels, who is a guy that I love, you know, I've called him, you know, baby Scotty Pippen at times, but he's not a guy that aggressively hunts his shot. He's not a guy. He's an opportunistic guy, scrambling defenses, you know, really, really small guy gets switched on to him or in a cross match. He tries to take advantage of that. He's not a guy that's going to go out there and try to score either. And so that's what I'm just like, man, we know Nas Reid is going to be game to shoot. But I wonder

who else is going to step up to the plate there. Well, we know T.J. Warren's going to be game to shoot if he is still on the Timberwolves roster. Yes. So some guys are going to get some shots up. Yeah. TJ Warren back on a 10 day. I think everyone was surprised to see him in that game two games ago, including us, probably including the Pacers, probably including his Timberwolves teammates. But yeah, the bench is pretty shallow there. I guess I don't understand injuries anymore because I thought the meniscus terror was like a pretty significant thing. And it still tends to be, but it feels like nowadays, it's like, oh, I'll be back in a week. Like to the point where like the reporting around it was like, he might miss time, he might miss time, if any. And I'm just like,

just a human body just more resilient than I ever imagined. I think we all are more resilient than you imagine, Justin. Like the humanity's capacity to bounce back from tragedy, you know, it's really a remarkable thing. Yeah, the spice does wonders. I always kind of saw the Timberwolves as a bit of a soft high seed in this. And if anything, I wonder if they drop more into the four range that sets you up with a more winnable first round series against the Pelicans, against the Kings, a team will talk about a little later there. So that maybe is even a sneaky advantage to being not as good down the stretch here. But

I don't know. Do you think that series is more winnable than one against the potential eight seed or seven seed? I think if a team like the Warriors is rolling, if the teams like the sons that are veteran laden and like they have an extra gear to them, I think that's particularly problematic with a younger team like the wolves and the thunder. I wouldn't want to see Kevin Durant in my first round series, especially if Towns is on one leg, let alone not in there at all. Whereas like the Pelicans, like, honestly, if the Pelicans were up three one in the NBA finals, I would still be like, man, I don't trust this team. I mean, we never do on this podcast. So I agree with you, though. I think this is a three. It seems like what could have been a pretty deep run here if all things

went well, seems pretty unlikely at this point. That's the thing. I think we have a clearer sense of what the future of the wolf season is going to look like. It's a little less variable. It's a a little less exciting and an injury like this just changes the shape of what's to come for them. Also, it throws a bit of a monkey wrench into their offseason. I think their clear intention was to see what happens in the playoffs and see who they could blame for the problems and get rid of them. But if Carl Towns is hurt, like, will they really go into the off season and be like, we're getting off of him anyway or we're going to try some other kind of major shakeup?

So I wonder how that affects what they do in the offseason. Yeah, there's a possibility here where Edwards goes off and they're like, well, we just don't need towns. Or at least we don't need to be paying someone this much for what we probably need from that spot because Edwards is meteoric and we could just ride him and Gobert's defense. But I don't see that happening. And if anything, just not having the sample size of even like a series of that makes this really muddled. And so if anything, I would expect them to just roll this back. as a result of this next season, but I guess we'll see.

Yeah, I think the takeaway could be that they need something different. I just don't think the takeaway is going to be that they need less offense than Carl Towns. Because a lot is going to be put on ant's shoulders. He's going to be the volume of attempts is going to be off the charts, but also the decision-making pressure

is going to be off the charts. And from what we've seen this season, I don't know that he's entirely ready for that for as transcendent a talent as he is. Yeah, although I'm excited to see what happens because... I mean, sure. him hitting his head on the backboard

was one of the most incredible things I've seen in the past decade of basketball the fact that he just did that in real time as opposed, like he didn't even try to do it. He wasn't like trying to like grab quarters off the top of the backboard so he had no run up. He just kind of like did it. And it looked like he was flying.

It was remarkable. Genuinely didn't even look like he fully like launched. He didn't really dip into his jump at all. It was just like this is a casual jump off of one leg. Oh, whoops, I accidentally hit my entire upper body on the bottom of the backboard. I played horse the other day and like my back kind of hurts. I'm not kidding. It's not a bit.

This is true. You and aunt just athletes of a different kind. Exactly. Let's go down the standing as they are now here to the Los Angeles Clippers, who won on Saturday in another just matinee, I don't know, like, just kind of wet fart of a game. They're playing today on Sunday at noon in what is their eighth matinee game of the season, I believe.

And they're doing so 22 hours when you factor in daylight savings after this most recent game. And I have to say, like, I wonder if the Clippers next season, just by not having to play these ridiculous time slots, might have like a five-game swing to their season, no matter who's on the court. Like, who's up for these games even to watch in the stands, let alone these players? I just want you to know, I see you, Justin, doing the daylight savings analytics. And I respect your process. I love that this is the NBA version of your big brother making you sleep on the, you know, the top bunk.

Like, sorry, buddy, you're going to have to climb that ladder. Not a lot of doubt as to who's getting the prime time. slot here as far as the current tenets of crypto.com arena go. These games are just a mess too. But since I would say past 13 games, 7 and 6, not great for a team. We expected potentially to threaten for a finals bid here. There have been some blown double-digit losses, the Lakers, the Bucks in here. They have lost to a lot of good teams.

So the losses in this stretch, New Orleans, Minnesota, OKC, Sacramento, Lakers, and Milwaukee. The winds are coming against the Detroit's, Golden States, Memphis, the Wizards, Minnesota again, and then Houston. And so if that's, if you have a concern, that would probably if you wanted to put together the case for panic for the Clippers, key in on the teams that you listed that they lost to. And it's all Western Conference teams. It's all the teams that

they're going to need to beat. The kinds of teams they're going to need to beat to go on a long run. And so that's a little concerning. But overall, I don't know how you guys feel I can't muster too much panic here. This this feels like a DefCon 5. Yeah, this is a DefCon 5 for me because of how old the team is. They're going to have lulls because they're gearing themselves up for the playoffs. This is not a bunch of guys who are just like, yo, I got all this stuff to prove, all this money I'm playing for. Yeah, like they're going to treat the regular season differently. And so, you know, a 500 stretch over the course.

of a month, I'm not too concerned about it at all. I think their strengths are what they are. They're just trying to be in the playoffs physically intact, you know, to try to make a run. And so I'm not, I'm not at all concerned about the club. I've watched those games. Like, again, some, like the Bucks loss was just like, you know, it was, it was them being asleep at the wheel. We're killing this team.

They're short-handed. We're not taking them seriously. and the Bucks played with some pride and we're able to steal one. It's just classic NBA stuff. I'm not worried about the Clippers at all. Look, I don't think they're going to win the championship to begin with, but I don't think this run is indicative of some major unseen flaw

that they had previously. Yeah, I think it's worth some examination zooming out and thinking, why are so many of these Western Conference teams right now wobbling? And some of them are just inconsistent teams who have been that way more or less all season and they just happen to be hitting lulls at the same time. You know, the Mavs we're going to talk about are one of those teams characteristically.

The Clippers have played great, but they are older. And the way that they play, specifically on defense, like their defensive execution level is off the charts when they're playing really, really well, but it's also really difficult. Like they're switching principles when they play that way. Like they ask a lot of these guys

in a way that is probably more conducive to seven-game series than 82 game stretches. And so they're going to be a really formidable playoff opponent, but they're going to have these stretches of the regular season where it's just not quite there. Like, they're still kind of on a string, but there's enough slack in the string that you can go over it or find ways around it. They're not completely impenetrable on that end right now.

And they've been hurt. They've been a little dinged up too. And so the combination of those two things, you're going to lose some games. So Russ is out with a broken left hand. He's expected to return around the playoffs before the playoffs. And this does feel like Rust time, meaningless March basketball where like he could probably win you a game just with his energy. And so I do think that probably factors in a little bit. But the two things I would be encouraged by

if you're a Clippers fan right now. So since December 1st, best clutch team in the NBA. And we're talking some heavy hitters in that mix there, better than Denver, better than the next, etc. That's a good sign here. And the other thing is I've been tracking the small ball a little bit. Because on the one hand, they don't do it often. But you constantly see Ty Loo. playing with it won. So clearly he likes the idea of it. Oh, yeah. Obviously, he has a track record.

Tyloo is a, no, he's a slut for offense. Trust me. He wants to score. That man wants to score. He's just Biden his time. I guarantee you when the playoffs come, they're going to be playing a lot of that five-out still smaller lineups to create the space that Kauai and Paul George need.

He's also a realist who's looking at Mason-Pi Plumley and Daniel Tice and thinking, this is great for right now, but maybe not for May. Sure. So the Hardin Powell, George, Leonard, in either Russ or Mann lineups are actually kind of incredible. So with Mann in there, 28.4 net in 25 minutes with Russ, 47.7 net in 20 minutes. Now, incredibly small sample size. And they do tend to pick their spots with it. Like, for instance, yesterday against the Bulls, they went small.

technically at the end there, but it was like the last minute or two, and because they just wanted Zubach out of the game. And so, like, and even in the Bucks lost, they went small, but with a mere coffee in there for some reason, I actually thought that's why they lost that game. And so, like, they're trying to stop here. I like him, but not in these lineups. He's a totally, like, credible rotation.

No. Yeah. So they're clearly, like, using some Petri Dish games here to try some stuff out for the playoffs as well. Yeah. As they should. And I want to say one thing about Russ. I know we just do so many shots at him.

But Justin did. You and I just sat here. Yes. Yes, but we were accomplices. Guil by. Yeah. I don't like the precedent that that sets for this podcast. We're in the car, Rob.

No, what he does add is a temperamental difference. obviously their two best players are Paul George and Kowah Leonard. But those dudes, man, are kind of comatose at times. They don't play with a lot of emotion. And like, Russ can be the emotional fulcrum of the team. Obviously, the pace that he plays with, they're definitely going to miss that. And Bones Highland, man, he's had, like, to start his rookie year, everybody was so excited to him just being a complete afterthought.

You know, he was making rumblins in Denver. and they was like, oh, yeah, you're traded. And he just barely plays for the clippers. And so he's coming, but he hasn't really sort of grabbed hold of the mantle either, right? And so they are definitely missing Russ. I just don't think that it's why they're 500 over the stretch. And if we look ahead and say the clippers, for whatever reason, never get it together between now and the end of the regular season. It's always just kind of up and down.

It's always a little sloppy. It's always a little disconnected. I think we might look at things like that as a reason why. you know, guys like us pencil them in because of the talent and the experience level and think, okay, they're going to find their way over the course of this home stretch. But the reality is you have to grab that. Like, you have to get that edge back to your play. And someone has to bring it, whether that's Kauai ramping it up or Paul George ramping it up

or guys like Russ getting in people's faces and raising the energy level. But you have to claim that for yourself. And if anything, we've seen the Clippers, they've shown the capacity to just like chill out for long stretches of things. season to their detriment and to the point of really taking things off the rails sometimes. What do you mean by guys like us? Guys guys on podcasts? What would I even say? Justin wants all the credit for being positive on the clip. I just seem a little pointed there. You know, like what? Just a bunch of handsome

gentleman preparing for an Oscar Sunday. Exactly that. Do you have, your pool set? Do you have your winners picked out? In my head, you know, I don't like to just like worry about winners and losers. It's all about the artistry, you know? That's literally what you do on this podcast every week. Winners and losers?

No, man, I'm out here grinding on a Saturday night just watching the blazers and raptors and overtime for fun. This is all vibes here. Okay. If you guys want Delano Banton takes, just let me know because I have them actually holstered. We'll move on here. Sacramento Kings, six and five, since a quiet deadline.

Rob, to me, this team kind of made their bed by not going out and swinging a trade there. It seemed like they were a prime candidate to do so. They're a veteran team. Unlike, for instance, the Pacers, who probably have the future ahead of them and have guys like Jarris Walker to really develop. This seemed like a clear-cut team that needed an upgrade and didn't get it. And so for me, it's not that surprising. I'm probably in the low end of the DefCon, if only because my expectations were around this anyway. I think I might be higher on the DefCon scale.

They might be approaching a three for me. And it's less about some disaster over the last 10 or 15 games and more zooming out the last couple months. And really this whole season, if you want to think about it this way, what worries me about the Kings is where is the growth? It's always hard for teams

to have like a big explosive season like they did last year to improve in a linear fashion. Like I wasn't expecting them to climb even further in the standings, to win the West, win even more games. That probably wasn't going to happen.

But when you look up and down the roster, who are the guys who are improving their games? And there are some, like Keegan Murray is a clear standout, a guy who's shooting has kind of come and gone over the course of the year. But I think he's made some big strides. And Davion Mitchell taking a step on offense,

that's a meaningful thing for his career, certainly, like that gets him on the court. But even though you're getting career best scoring from Deeran Fox, you're getting Subonis being wildly productive even still, are those guys or is any part of this team doing anything that it did or does to better effect than it used to?

And you see that against all kinds of opponents but in particular, they just lose so many games against sub-500 teams against injured teams, against short-handed teams. It's insane. We're going to dedicate plenty of time and attention to the Warriors absolutely blowing it against the Spurs team

without Victor Webbenyama or Devin Vesel. But guess what? The King's almost lost to the Spurs too. They got booed. This is what they do. And I think they've gotten a lot of cover by, you know, teams like Dallas being so bad defensively that we don't talk about the Kings. Teams like the Lakers or the Warriors being so low in the standings that we don't always get to the Kings who are kind of in that chunky middle. But they've been a real disappointment. And a real disappointment in a way that you have to take broader stock of where this franchise is and where this, like, the core of this team is.

Yeah, I'm a little bit closer to a three. and I just think it's their approach is off to me in the sense that this should be a team that is like a regular season kind of juggernaut, right? They play a style that a lot of people can't prepare for. They're young, so they should have the energy every single night. And yet they're just so inconsistent, right? Like, to watch them blow the freaking doors off of the Lakers,

a full squad Lakers, blow the doors off of them, you know, in a way it's like, yeah, we're better than you guys. You guys got nothing for us to play like the way that they did against San Antonio's like, guys, like, y'all ain't been to the last 12 post seasons and like they have this established identity and culture of just like, you know what? Sometimes in March we don't bring it. Like, y'all don't have that right. They should be an overachieving as regular.

season team. Even if you don't think, you know, the top end talent isn't there or, yeah, like, I don't think they're the most serious contender in the West. They should just be having a way better season when you think about the continuity that they have and the talent that they have. It's just the inconsistency is, I wonder what that is, man. So on the optimist side, they currently have a 58.1 winning percentage that's six in the Western Conference. Last season, they finished 58.5. That was third in the Western Conference. So it could just be a lot of this is the West being a bear trap at this point.

They're just better. I mean, on the other side of that, since the deadline, 28th in defensive rating, who's worse than the Mabbs even, who I think will get to. But a lot of consternation about their defense. Past five wins for the Kings. 131 points. This is what the Kings are scoring. 131, 130, 124, 123, 127.

On the one hand, the offense is blistering when you need it, but they have to outscore teams. There's no other possible way here. It's just very clearly we need to overwhelm you. Yes. Yeah, I wish that that were good enough. I wish that were good enough to make them consistent. But this is a team that needs every advantage it can get

to maintain its place in the standings and climb and climb and climb and climb and get home court advantage in series to have a chance against some of these. even more veteran or even more talented teams that are at the back half of the bracket. Like, the Kings don't have anyone on Luca Donchich's level. The Kings don't have a Kevin Durant or a Devin Booker. Like, they have to compensate through other means and they're not. So the fact that this team, which is a team of pretty good players for the most part and these two clear stars in the middle, that that group is even less consistent than it was

a year ago is a really big worry for me. Not only because of what they would be in a playoff series, but the fact that they are right on the precipice of falling into the play in. And this is a team that can very much lose two play in games. Like, they absolutely have that in them. And so if anyone needs to cling on to that sixth seed for dear life, it's the Sacramento Kings. Yeah. And this isn't the type of team that is going to overwhelm incredibly good offensive teams with offense, too.

Like, there's still a level here that they're not reaching. I mean, it feels like every team is going to break the offensive rating record this season. but like the Thunder, another team that's just like completely shooting the cover off the ball and whatnot. Not if Adam Silver and Joe D have anything to say about it. That's true. But it almost feels like the Kings have settled into this weird middle ground where they're still very bad on defense, but there are not elite top tier on offense. If you ever seen the Simpsons episode where Homer gets a lobster that he starts to raise?

No. Walk us through it. Well, he gets one from the grocery store with the intention of growing it and fattening it up himself. Okay. And so he puts it in his goldfish tank, but Lisa reminds him, hey, the lobsters need salt water. So he pours in salt, but then the goldfish die and they start to rise to the top. But then he pours in more water and then like the lobster. And that goes back and forth for a bit until they're right there in the middle, both looking dead.

That's the Sacramento Kings right now. Damn. one well played and two fucking bleak that sounds awful I mean I assume they'll clean it up over the off season they'll finally make that trade we've been waiting for but you know that's not going to help in this season

yeah I don't think it's quite so dire in the grand scheme of things there's still a lot to like about how Sacramento plays and the talent that they have but as constructed also this is let's not forget this is a team that just came off of 20 years of not making a freaking 80. Yeah. Like, sure. You know,

that matters. There are levels to this. But I think that's why it would. Like they literally just stopped that streak. But that's why it would make it so dispiriting if they did end up in the plane and didn't make the cut. Like if all of that like long suffering agony and you get one guaranteed playoff spot and a incredible moment of Sacramento basketball history.

Like that first round series was a ton of fun. I thought they showed up. They played really well. over the course that series, maybe even get out of it, if not for an injury to Deere and Fox. And if this is the follow-up, kind of a stumbling season

where there's not a lot to feel confident about as far as the trajectory of the team and then a possible play-in loss, that would be gutting. That'd be a really gutting result for a team that by personnel and by vibes and by the trajectory of the franchise,

you would hope a lot better for. That beam bought them half a season of bad, like a mediocre, or to above average basketball and everyone's like, this is not enough. The only development we're waiting for over the back half

of this season is for the beam to get milkshake ducted. Like we find out it's been contributing to global warming or something every time they activate it. That's the only break I'm waiting for in the Sacramento season. That's kind of how badly things have gone

over the last two months or so. That's your next investigative piece. Oh, yes. We're really going deep on the beam. The amount of energy they're wasting. All right. That brings us to the Dallas Mavericks, currently parked in eighth in the Western Conference somehow, since the deadline, six and five as well. 23rd on defense, third on offense, and definitely helps having played the Detroit Pistons on Saturday.

But what's going on with the defense here, Rob? I think there's a couple of problems. One, it's just way too easy to get them in rotation. There are enough guys on the perimeter who you can just get a step on or get by. And even more of a problem than that, once you do, you can count on Dallas to overreact to that fact by the principles of their scheme and the way that they've been coached

to guard those actions over the course of the season. So you get a lot of really wide open threes if you're playing the Dallas Mavericks. And that's if you're not getting a lot of really wide open shots at the rim because of the over... That's assuming the overreaction even works. So those are huge problems. And some of that is personnel.

Some of it is just the style, to be honest with you. I think there's ways that this could be preventing. to at least get them more in the, you know, closer to their season average versus where they've been over the last couple weeks, closer to that 20th range in defense, which if you're the third ranked offense in the league, is probably good enough.

When you have Luca Donchich on your team, which good Lord, over the last eight games, 37, 11, and 10 from Luca, first player in NBA history to have five straight 35 point triple doubles. And yet, three and five in those eight games,

because they can't stop anybody. So we're nearing, scary times for the Mavericks in a very bad way. Like they have been wobbly. They have a high variance offense because of how much they rely on three-point shooting. But they've got to figure out a way to stabilize. Yeah. The offense, obviously, is rolling when you have an MVP candidate,

a serious MVP candidate, Isaiah, like Luca Donchich. The offense has shown that it's pretty resilient and flexible and able to attack any kind of defense. I think it's there. The trade was supposed to make their defense more elastic, you know, these rangier, quicker. I guess you could call both of those guys bigs, if you will, if not centers outright.

That was supposed to help them be less, you know, like Rob said, just easy to penetrate and puncture. It just hasn't worked out that way. They, in theory, added, a lot more athleticism in that deal, but it just hasn't been brought to bear in the way that they've been hoping. Maybe it is a scheme thing, and the new faces haven't been integrated in such a way that the defense can be brought to average. But I think it's definitely, you know, I'm at like a four with it. I can't be too concerned when Luca Donch is just still kicking

everybody's ass every single night. But the defense is, you know, it's something to watch. And lively, again, he's a rookie, right? As, as good as he's been, he's a first year player. He's not going to just dominate NBA teams, right, on that end. And so I think they got some time to shore these things up. And to me, they just need to be average. They can't be 23rd. They need to be closer to 16th, 17th, 15th.

Yeah. So on one hand, there are times when it's Luca, Kyrie, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. out there. And I'm like, well, no shit you're bad on defense. it's like we need to find the person who did this. It's like very clearly what you're doing here. On the other hand, they have switched to this two big, yeah, right. They have switched to this two big starting lineup the past two games with PJ Washington next to Daniel Gafford. I believe lively is coming off the bench in both of those games. On the one hand, I think it makes sense at the very least to try it out, especially as we're going to the regular season. On the other hand, like, I don't know how you feel about it, Rob, but doesn't feel like despite being bigger in the first. front court, they play bigger. There's just like kind of a, I don't want to say softness just because

what a pejorative and what that all that entails there, but like they're not thumping in the way that you would expect with that much heft in the front court, I would say. Yeah, they're not thumping bigs. They're more stretch, but they can also kind of rebound and they can also kind of protect the basket. So you're going for like a combo deal with that. But the alternative is you're starting someone like Derek Jones Jr. at the four, who's just, we've seen historically and over the course of the season, too slight to play that. position on a long-term basis. So that's why they do it in the hopes that it can buttress their defense. You know, like neither of those guys is a pure rim protector. But combined, maybe they could

get the job done is the hope. I think the problem is that they're overcompensating for that. And really, maybe they should trust guys like Gafford and Lively more. I think the problem with lively is he gets a lot of fouls. And that that's the problem with him being a young player, is he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt on it's on like borderline contact, but also just over pursues and goes after stuff. And that's part of the reason I think why they're trying Gafford to see if that can work in that spot. Hopefully, you know, you have to hope that between those three and Maxi Kleba in the rotation, that you can cobble together some kind of defense that can work here.

And some of it is also finding the balance of, I think at the expense of Tim Hardaway, if we're all being clear about what the tradeoffs need to be here, finding more time at the three for, you know, Derek Jones and Dante XM, who's been really good for them in spots. You need those sorts of players with Kyrie and Luca as much as you can at that three spot, really flexible, multi-positional defenders who can ease the burden on them. Because this is not working. I think the trades have, they've really raised the ceiling.

I think Gafford and Washington raised them as ceiling. They make them a better team. They give them a punch on offense and on the offensive glass that's been really important. But the floor is exactly what it's been, which is you could take a bad step at any time and all of a sudden, everything collapses in one quarter and it costs you a game. Yeah, that was kind of my concern with PJ Washington too, because it's like you, in theory, or at least on paper get bigger in size. But do you really?

And then also does he really give you the type of stretch you need their consistent stretch from that position if you wanted to play him in Gafford? His defense has always been theoretical, honestly. It's like he's rangy, he's long, he's quick, he's got hops. It's like, oh, that should be a guy that really helps you on defense has just never really come to fruition in any consistent manner, not in Charlotte anyway.

Yeah. So I think like right now this season, I'm probably at a three with this team because a lot, some of these issues might be chalked up to they're adding two starters functionally at this point on the fly and you having to work them in is going to take time and effort and yada yada. But unfortunately in the broader sense, once we get to the off season, we're out of one here because they're so all in at this point. And unlike a Victor Webbenyama situation where he's like halfway through his rookie season and everyone's like, where do we get him help? I mean, The clock is very much ticking with Luca. And like the Mavs themselves have pretty much admitted as much by going all in with depth. And maybe they can swing a trade where they trade some of these players together to upgrade to a superstar. But like we're getting down there to like the scary hours with him. And this is going to be coming up more, more, more of a talking point as we go through the next. I would say year, probably by next trade deadline if they haven't gotten their shit together.

This is going to be a powder keg. I mean, one question I think is relevant. And now, Rob, is like, do you think Jason Kidd makes it through the season? Like, well, not through the season, but makes it into the off season. It's tough to say just because he does have that history of the Western Conference Finals run where he really put it together in a way that was impressive and somewhat even unexpected based on that regular season. Like he brought that team. He's got a history with the GM. He also has that, you know, he's got a little cover, which always goes a long way for coaches in his position.

I think it's so, I think it's going to be very outcome to. It shouldn't be, but often coaching firing, more than any other decision made at an NBA franchise level is. Do you make the playoffs, especially after last season, not even qualifying? And what do you do when you get there to show a level of respectability? And even if they lose a first round series, if they have the kind of first round loss we've seen from them previously, like against the Clippers, where Luca is unbelievable, they're competitive in all the games, they're going down to the stretch. and they just get a little outmatched by a really talented team. I don't necessarily see Jason Kidd taking a fall for something like that. But I don't know that this team has that kind of run in them.

They have the capacity to really embarrass themselves against good teams sometimes. And they just have not shown up defensively for some of these games. So I'm different. I think they can play. Teams have a way of focusing themselves in the playoffs, right? Particularly on defense. more attention to detail. They just play harder on defense in the playoffs.

And that's why I believe that they can be much better than they've shown, which again, much better than 23rd is still just average. But like, I think in the playoffs, there will be a closer to. Guys just play harder, more focus. It's just is the case oftentimes, especially, again, particularly on defense. When your problems are offensive, it's just like, if you can't make shots, you can't make shots, right? I think I'm a little bit still more bullish on these guys in this group.

You know, again, when you have Luca who's going to be the best player in like pretty much every series you play in, that's just a beautiful advantage. Obviously, other teams are going to out-talent you otherwise. But I think they're going to be, we're going to hear from the Mavs in the playoffs, man. I don't think they're going to just go out with a whimper. And I'll say this about Luca and Kyrie, who we were just bagging on for not being the best, most reliable defenders. When they turn it up, Luca can be a pretty credible defender. And I think Kyrie especially can be a high effort, pretty disruptive defender. He's not the biggest, but he can get in there with his hands.

He goes after loose balls. He can dig in defensively. And those things are both more manageable over the course of a series than they are just like managing these regular season games against the Pistons, where your effort may or may not be there every possession defensively. that an elite defensive team would want. So maybe that consolidation was could go a long way for them. Is Luca ever going to get in shape?

Like, best shape of his life shape? I don't think it's ever going to happen. If he's putting up these lines, I don't give a shit. Like, if he's playing at this level, I honestly don't care. I mean, like, at a certain point, I look out there,

I'm like, can this guy be playing small ball five? Like, you know, he's a chunky boy. The only thing for me, And this is something that's just, I just don't like it. I just hate the idea that Luca does the Harding thing that when he's not on the ball, he's just doing absolutely nothing. And to his credit, he's going to be like, look, man, when I do stuff, it's incredible. I'm amazing.

And, you know, sometimes I don't have to do everything. I don't have to be a movement guy, too. I just would like to see him be more dynamic in that way. And I think, yeah, if he were in better shape, he would be a better defender. For sure. It's just the, like the guy's freaking huge, right? Like, he would be more of a deterrent. But yeah, it would be nice to see him, like, you know,

be completely spelt for a whole season, get on the Kevin, Kevin Garnett Regiment, and be just the ultimate endurance warrior. Run up some dunes. Yeah. I need to see him on the beaches. Exactly. Somebody get Jerry Rice on the phone.

This is ridiculous. He's one of the highest usage players in the league with one of the biggest workloads in the league. Like, he carries a team. I would love all these things you're talking about, but I don't really have a fault with his level of endurance. Rob, we only do this because we love him. We see the potential.

All right. It's true. All right. I do think there's going to come a point, though, where, yeah, I don't know if the Mavs made all of the right moves around him, but at a certain point, the onus is going to fall on him to do some of the, or at least less than some of the histrionics, maybe getting a little better shape, do like the little small things that he hasn't done

because we say things like this. Oh, 30 point, triple double, yada, yada. But it's like, you know what, maybe don't lead the league in technical fouls for a year or just like maybe worry a little bit more on the defensive end when your big issue is defense because you're a big old boy who could actually be credible on that end or at least like hold your own in post like he tends to do. And so it's like, we'll see. It might take another team for him to get there. but like, you know, Jason Kidd might be the fall guy in this whole situation. And it's very small part because of that. I will say one thing about the kid thing.

Like Mike Boodenholzer kind of being out there, some of these other guys who've had the track record. I do think it's going to be attractive to want to go and maybe reach for something. Especially if the issues on defense and we've seen Bud over and over again just instill the discipline you need for like pretty much everyone that he's been around. Yeah. And those are two coaches who are kind of similar, I would say, in terms of like, in, game temperament. If anything, Bud is like pretty mild by NBA coach standards as like a personality. And yet in contrast to Jason Kidd, who as far as I can tell says like five words throughout

the course of an NBA game, histrionics from Mike Boodenholzer by comparison. But I think the difference is kind of a, I think a Doc Rivers, Adrian Griffin, comp would be unfair to Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd has had a history of making this a good defensive team. But coaches like Mike Boodenholzer have had a long. history of reliable defensive play. And that's always been the issue with kid is he can get one or two really good defensive seasons out of a team.

And then for whatever reason, tactical personality, chemistry, injury, it doesn't quite hold up. And so I'm really curious to see if he can find anything in a shorter term against a particular playoff opponent with this group. See if he can find some of that magic again. Yeah. Kid's a good coach. I'll say that.

Although didn't Bud come in after Kid? He was the one that cleaned up the kid era in Milwaukee. He was not a good coach in Milwaukee. He just wasn't. Yeah. No, it didn't work out. He was much more. He's gotten way better.

Yeah. He is creative in ways that I think people look back on and don't really acknowledge, even in Brooklyn. But that's a whole other conversation. All right. Why don't we wrap it here with the Warriors? Team that has now lost three or four. Staff is out about a week, we think, with an ankle injury. So they play the Spurs, as Rob was referring to earlier, without Victor Webbenyama.

and Devin Vesel. Like, they don't have anybody. And the Warriors scored 43 points at half. 43 points. I don't know how that happened. Well, actually, I do kind of know how that happened. Steve Kerr started Chris Paul, Brandon Projemsky,

Draymond, Grim, Kaminga, and Trace Jackson Davis. Is there a shooter amongst them? I guess it would be pods. He's like a ball movement. connector type. Like, what the fuck was he thinking? Like, I just, like,

Kerr does these things, and I love them in the big picture, but he makes some of these decisions, I'm just like, are you high? Like, are you on ayahuasca right now? But you don't see why he, like, why he maintained the rotation that way? Because I think it makes sense. It's just kind of indicative of the problems.

Steph is out with this injury. Andrew Wiggins is just coming back from being out, like, dealing with a personal issue. And- another personal injury. injury for Andrew Wiggins. Well, I say this in like a non-judgmental way, but like did not give them anything in this game.

No, I'm judging. But more broadly, you have this huge problem with stuff out. You're still working Chris Paul back into the lineup. He's been kind of easing his way back in. And you're trying to get Clay entrenched in this bench roll that's been really good for him. So do you disrupt everything else you're trying to do for seven to 10 days just for the sake of trying to keep your head above water. It's a hard question to ask, and Steve Kerr, for better or worse, has always been big

picture over small picture as a coach. He's always emphasized the longer term. At the same time, put some shooting in the lineup, you know? At the same time, it's like, it's 2024. You know? They probably should have started Clay. Yeah, they started the second half of Clay. Clay over Trace, I guess, would be the move.

And I get starting Trace with Chris Paul, like you wanted more of a lot of threat. Wemby wasn't in there, maybe get Trace like some run with these guys. He has some upside that he doesn't get to play as much, much like these other guys. Moody's out there. He never plays Moody. So on the one hand, I get it, but on the hand, like, there's no way that lineup was going to work. Also, alternatively, don't let the Spurs without Victor Web and Yama and Devin Fisle score 126 points. That would be a winning strategy, I would recommend. They shot the lights out.

A winning strategy. And I think if there's been a critique of Steve Kerr's tenure with the Warriors, it has been his lineup logic. It's driven people up a wall forever. Even the sort of inflexibility of the system of just like, oh, everybody has to be this beautiful game connoisseur to get minutes for Kerr. I think that gets a little bit too played up. But the lineup logic has been consistent, you know, Festus Zizili and Andy Varajal and the kind of guys that he's falling in love with over the years.

Like, I get it. But as far as panic, I think Steph's going to come back. And I think this full team is pretty freaking good. They're not great by any stretch, but they're damn good when they're healthy. And Steph's going to be healthy. enough soon. I hope this thing doesn't linger into the playoffs.

I want a fully healthy stuff for the playoffs, obviously. But I'm not, you know, this is a five for me, honestly, and worry. Only a five. Yeah. I'm out like a two. I get his step's ankle. So we're supposed to be overly, like, scared because of this history. It's not really about the ankle, I don't think.

I mean, it's about him being out for a little bit of a stretch. But it's also about when he's out, what it exposes about the team. And kind of what the state of the Warriors is, right? right now, which they can be... The non-step minutes. They rear their ugly head. They can be transcendent, and we've seen that even recently. I just worry, because I can...

I feel like I can start to see the end game for them. And it's, if they end up staying in the 10 spot, and that means beating the Lakers and then another good Western Conference team just to make the bracket, you could see them falling short in that position, too. Like, that's an uphill climb for a team like this that can't always be reliable. can always be healthy for that matter. So there are two separate issues, I think, at hand here. One's short term, one's long term.

Short term, I'm less worried about them without Steph because he's going to come back at some point and more worried that Andrew Wiggins was away for four games. We still don't know why. And then he can't even start anymore. He has to be relegated to the bench. And as Rob mentioned, the bench minutes weren't good either. And so they were at their best when they found the starting lineup with Wiggins was a part of that and a healthy, happy contributor.

Yes. If they don't have him back in there playing like he was, how do they get back to the heights where they kind of found a groove there for about a month plus there where they seemed like they were really clicking? I don't know how they get back to that. And then long term is the bigger issue there. It's like when Steph isn't out there, it is laid bare how little elite level talent they have left on this roster. They're deep. They're deeper than a lot of teams. The fact that Moody is like coming in out of lineup still suggests that.

It's just like it's really up to Kaminga. at this point to be the star to kind of take the game by the scruff and he's just not that dude. I think long term like I like coming. He's made a lot of progress. I think like he's certainly super duper talented. I think he could be a superstar role player. He's, that's my question. Like if he is he an all star? If he embraces it. Probably not. If he's an all star, no, it's because he's on an ultra successful team being a master of his role. It's not going to be because he's The Kyle Corver All-Star spot. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Kyle for Memorial. Yeah. I don't think he's that kind of player, but I really do think because of his tools, because of his motor, he's getting smarter and smarter about the game. His skill work is getting better and better every single day. Like the jump shot has come around in a way that I, you know, that I was nervous. It might not ever. You know, the handle is getting better slowly but steadily.

I think he can be a monster role player, you know, like a defensive ace wing type, you know, and somebody could give you some secondary or what's the third of secondary? I don't know what that word. Tertiary. We got you. We got you.

We're handling, right? I'm a fan. I'd never let go on my Kaminga stock, man. But All-Star, which is what I kind of think he is. It's kind of funny. like he had to bully Steve Curran to playing him because he has this ultimate confidence that he's this budding star inside.

I don't think that's actually true. But the bullying worked and that it up his minutes and it's proof that this guy is a real NBA player. Bullying does work. And we've seen it with DeAngelo Russell too who said he got bullied on the internet and started playing better. Like, you know, sometimes this stuff is meaningful.

I think the way we're talking about this, though, and how quickly, like, our attention, not just us, but everyone who watches this team shifts to Cominga is kind of illustrative of where the Warriors are. Like, that Cumminga popping the way he did and Wiggins joining the lineup and playing well in the way he did. Like, they kind of synchronized in a way that overshadowed how important Wiggins was and how essential he is to this team. Like, no matter how well Jonathan Cuminga plays, if Andrew Wiggins is not playing,

well, the Warriors do not have an alternative to his minutes. You can't just plug in Trace Jackson Davis, like these kind of Jackson Davis or whatever big you want off that bench plus Draymond, plus Cumminga lineups. It's not really going to be tenable, especially in the playoffs. And they've shown, and Clay has shown, that's not the best look for them either, plugging him back into the starting lineup. And so if you're not getting Wiggins, then are you talking yourself into Moody? Are you talking yourself into like the interchangeable conveyor belt?

of role players that the Warriors are trotting out there, there's not an alternative. And there's certainly not an alternative that's giving you, you know, championship warriors level Andrew Wiggins type impact and production, which is what you always hope from him, that he can still have that guy in him somewhere. Yeah, I had just had the hope that the Warriors could have threatened, at least a long first round playoff series, if they did indeed get to that out of the play. And they seemed like they were on that type of run there where things were really clicking and you don't want to see the Warriors in a playoff series, especially when, you

if you're the thunder and you're young and whatnot. I just, it seems unlikely that that's going to happen. At this point, the lineup Jenga is so complex, as Rob was alluding to. And it does seem like Wiggins is, is the main piece there.

It's just like they just don't have that sort of three and deed skill set. And I think they made the right move, bringing him back at the deadline. But man, for him to just fall back into this like gaping maw that he seems to always find himself. He needs to get his head in the game, Justin.

Seriously. I don't know what's going on there, but it's clearly just disrupting. him and everything else they're doing. So I'm concerned. The DefCon is up there, but you guys seem to be more on the lower end. I'm splitting the difference between you two, I think. I'm probably at a three

with the Warriors just because unlike teams like the Mavs, they have had stretches where they looked like they could be a challenger. They could be a realistic team that's climbing the standings and contending. And now between Steph being out for this stretch and we'll see how he looks when he comes back, but the Warriors need him

to be explosive. They need him to be awesome all the time. And to have that in addition to all these other issues that we've talked through, I'm concerned because their ceiling is much higher than some of these other teams. Listen, I'm never going to give up on my good friend and buddy, Steph Curry, and his ability to affect wins in the regular season and beyond, okay? He knows how to sell a bit.

He knows how to get regular season wins. Our guy is the ultimate team player. Exactly. We'll always be proud of you, Steph. no matter what you do in this life. Making us proud. Yeah. All right.

Why don't we wrap it there? Thank you to Isaiah Blakely, who gets our Oscar for best sound editing. Thank you to Tucker Taj. And thank you to Ben Cruz. We'll be back on Wednesday. We'll see you then.