The Ringer NBA Show - NBA Finals Verrierables: Mavs vs. Celtics | Group Chat

Episode Date: June 2, 2024

The Verrierables are back! This time Justin, Rob, and Wos begin their preview of the NBA Finals by answering six questions about this matchup between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks including ...their Finals predictions. Buy tickets to our live show in Los Angeles here! The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit http://www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, Wosny Lambre Producer: Isaiah Blakely Social: Eduardo Ocampo Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, it's Brian Curtis from The Ringer, and I want to tell you about the Press Box podcast. The Press Box is a podcast for anybody who likes news, whether it's about sports or politics or pop culture, and wants to understand how that news really gets made. We have new shows every Monday and Thursday. We have long interviews with everyone from John Crackauer to Joe Buck. Your social media feeds are bursting with information every day. Let us help you sort it out. Join us.
Starting point is 00:00:30 on the press box. Welcome to group chat. I am Justin Verrier and joining me, Rob Mahoney, Big Was, and what the audience didn't see while I was making that introduction
Starting point is 00:00:59 as I slyly scooped a beer out of Woz's hand. During that. One more series of pods to go, baby. By the way, some people thought that he was like, Luca, you got to lock in for the finals. I think he was just taking his beer for himself.
Starting point is 00:01:17 I thought so too. This is my beer. now. I need that. Big boy. Big brother situation. I read that more as like finals are coming up. Or at the very least, don't do it in front of the cameras because a lot of people were clearly taking video right there. Like, don't be out in the hallway drinking beers. Doesn't that guy deserve it? It's his first. If MPA doesn't deserve to crush a beer. That's what I'm saying. Like, he made it to the finals. He's doing a lot of heavy lifting. Let the man have a beer. I don't disagree. I mean, after this pod, if you guys want to crush your beer, that's fine. Just don't do
Starting point is 00:01:49 in the presence of reporters who are just trying to ding you for drinking said beer. No, I only drink sponsored beer, Justin. You know this. So if people want to get at us, then maybe, but otherwise, beat it. Got the Grand Monnier in your hand right now. That's right. No extra for ads. Come on. Hey, Rob. Did you know that we have a live show coming up? Do we? Tell me more. Yes. June 18th at the El Ray Theater in Los Angeles. Part of the Ringer residency, get your tickets at the ringer.com slash events. We'll have special guests.
Starting point is 00:02:25 Are those guests, Christina Aguilera or Chris Ryan? Who's to say? Could be anyone at this point. Might be both. Maybe a Christina Brittany, like, reunion up there. Wow. Or maybe it's Kyle Mann. Who knows?
Starting point is 00:02:39 What do you think Christina's takes on the positional revolutionar? How is she feeling about point guard play in 2024? She seems like more of a back-to-the-basket sort of gal. You know, she wants post-play. Yeah, she's pining for the days of 06, you know, Spurs, Pistons in the finals, games ending in the high 70s. That's what Christina Aguilera is about, getting dirty, Rob. It's true. I mean, we're all nostalgic in our own ways, even if it's dirty with multiple ours.
Starting point is 00:03:07 Since we're taking care of some business, Rob, I just wanted to check in. Have you figured out how we're settling the Nuggets bet yet, or do we need to keep going on here? Yeah, I'm buying you dinner with Waz's assistant. as we agreed to. Okay. No special costume or outfits or anything like that. No. And I'm insulted you would even suggest it.
Starting point is 00:03:29 But look, we've already offered to do it on stage at the live show. If you want us to feed you soup while you're sitting in a chair at the live show, I'd be down for that, you know? Soup might get a little messy. A nice lentil soup right on stage. We'll get you a nice bib, Justin. It's all good. Okay.
Starting point is 00:03:48 Well, since we have. haven't actually solved the situation. I have updated the coward tracker yet again. Thank you. Wow. Okay, what's going on with this with this coward? Can you describe it for our? Who's a toning mother effer? Oh, wow. Is that supposed to be Luca himself? It's Luca. Yeah. You couldn't tell from this beautiful art. It's very Bart Simpson. Yeah, well, he's got the prickly hair. I'm an artist, man. You just got to go with my vision for this. I'll be honest. I think this is, is running tired, so I'd appreciate it if you came up with something sooner rather than later. Maybe you shouldn't have come up with it. Now I'm just going to let you twist in the wind,
Starting point is 00:04:27 have to come up with new weird illustrations, literally every episode. All right. Well, my artistry isn't contained to just this coward tracker. We are bringing back our favorite segment, the variables for the NBA finals. But we're kicking it up a notch, much to Rob's weird chagrin slash curiosity. because it's the finals, we have to go full bore here. You got just like the introductionary phase of the variables. This time, we're going to the future. Yeah, that's right.
Starting point is 00:05:02 We're going. You see what I did there, V2? Get it? B2. Love it. So before Isaiah drops the beat on you, I have to get into character here. Oh, no. Oh, boy.
Starting point is 00:05:21 Isaiah, hit it. Yes. Yes. Used to be a reporter. Used to be a professional. Capital change journalist. And now I'm an entertainer. Let's go.
Starting point is 00:05:57 Okay. We can turn up the strobe light. Did you already own these glasses? Or did you purchase them for this podcast? Definitely got them on Amazon. 100%. He typed in futuristic glasses on Amazon. The first.
Starting point is 00:06:13 freaking, you know, Amazon's choice joint, and that was it. The first result for sure. Just that. Yes, that's 100% true. I don't know if you could tell there, but in addition to these glasses for the listener at home who's listening to this audio podcast, the glasses are very, I guess, Star Trek influenced, and there's a strobe light going when the music is going. Very Jordy LaForge of you. I mean, I appreciate the larger bit, even if I don't understand any of it.
Starting point is 00:06:40 I don't think you're supposed to. You know, it's just supposed to be a vibe. All right. And the vibe is future question mark? Yeah, it's like we're kicking it up a notch. All right. I think you're more optimistic about the future than I am. I see the future is us kicking it down many notches over time. But look, I would love to live in a world in which we are kicking it up in honor of the future. Okay. Well, we're doing it in honor specifically of the NBA finals. I have five questions for you. We'll bring back the music when we get to the next question. But first and foremost, we got to talk about guarding Luca and Kyrie. Rob, how the hell are the Boston Salta's going to do this? First follow-up question, are you going to wear these glasses for the entire show? I got to be honest, they're kind of riding up on my face, so probably not, but, you know, we'll play it by here. Okay. Well, if we're talking about Luca and Kyrie, how to approach these guys. Was, I don't know what you're thinking. I'm thinking if I were the Celtics, I would start
Starting point is 00:07:37 Jalen Brown on Luca. I would start Drew on Kyrie. And then obviously you're flexing into other matchups as the game goes on. But fundamentally, I think the choice is not like who guards them, but how you guard them. And I'm probably switching as much as humanly possible. I think that does a couple of different things. One hopefully keeps the bigs out of rotation, keeps them out of situations where they're having to guard Luca in space, which I dislike even more than them having to guard him one on one. And so I'm mostly doing that in an effort to contain action, but I'm also doing it with an eye to the long game here, which is that the Celtics goal is not to win game one. It's to wear Luca down over seven games. And the way you do that is
Starting point is 00:08:19 you switch and switch and switch and you make him beat you in ISO over and over and over. and hopefully take away some of the momentum that the Mavs have had to their offense. So for me, I disagree with you slightly, right? Obviously, Drew Holiday needs to be involved. But when I think about the myriad of defenders at this point who have been thrown at Luca Donchish so far this playoffs, the guy who had the most success is probably Lou Dord. And the guy who can approximate the most Lou Dortness is Drew Holiday.
Starting point is 00:08:51 So I feel like you should put Drew on Luca. and then sort of circle and rotate the guys that you decide to throw at Kyrie, whether you decide to do some Tatum to give him some length and some different looks. Same thing with Brown. Or, of course, our guy Derek White, I feel like could do a pretty decent job against him as well. But for me, I want to try to get in that, you know, immovable object. Crowd is airspace. Obviously have great feet. And just be, you know, as strong and compact, low center of gravity as possible.
Starting point is 00:09:23 possible because obviously Luca as a strength guy, I feel like the people that cannot be bullied and pushed back are the guys that will do the best. So I would like to see Drew on Luca to start and then do a brigade against Kyrie. Here's the thing about that is, is Drew Holiday that guy? I almost wonder, he's the closest thing the Celtics have to a Lou Dort physical specimen, but he's maybe 20 pounds lighter. Yeah. And when we've seen Luca get that matchup before, honestly, he looks pretty comfortable with it. I think... So much taller in him, too.
Starting point is 00:09:57 He's so much taller, and he can get to his spots. He can be really patient. I think the wild card there is Drew's hands are so good. And so when you're talking about, you know, Luca's a guy who's very hard to speed up, who's hard to get off his cadence, maybe Drew can mess him up a little bit just by swiping at the ball, just by getting in his space that way. But in terms of pure size, Justin, I feel like Luca might be able to bully Drew a little bit. Yeah, so I went back and watched the most recent game between the,
Starting point is 00:10:22 Mavs in the Celtics. So it was March 1st after the trade deadline, but still the Mavs were clearly figuring things out. The defense hadn't clicked. Lively was starting with a mask on. This guy is having above the shoulder issues even back then. But Josh Green was starting. Derek Jones, Jr. hadn't been there. So there's a lot of things that they were still figuring out. It seemed like Drew was getting the majority of the reps on Luka there. But Luka, even in a regular season Friday matchup, was mismatch hunting. And it wasn't as much for like an Al Horford, the guy you would expect, especially if Chris Dops doesn't play in the series. We'll get to that later. But there
Starting point is 00:10:55 was a lot of targeting of Derek White in a way that I was kind of struck by, because White's an all-MBA defender, but I think the fact that he's just smaller, yeah, Luca can just bowl him over and also shoot over the top of him. I was a little surprised by that, and I wouldn't be surprised if Luca just
Starting point is 00:11:11 starts doing that from the jump. And then I think it gets into a bigger question about like how much Boston is going to be willing to give him the switch, how much they're willing to even go beyond what they typically do, which is try to guard people one-on-one and double and blitz. And I think that gets into the bigger picture conversation about Joe Missoula. How much are the Celtics going to do what they typically do versus how much is Luca going to force them out of that comfort zone?
Starting point is 00:11:36 Yeah. It's going to be interesting how they choose to address those initial pick and roles. And I think the best answer is switching ultimately, but fighting through any initial action and make them make you switch. Right. Don't just be giving it up. I think the key with Luca especially, you know, he can be a more deliberate player at times. I think he's played with great pace in these playoffs.
Starting point is 00:11:56 But if you can make them screen and re-screen a couple times on that initial action, then all of a sudden the clock is at his back a little bit. And he doesn't get to pick and choose and decide all the terms of engagement. He's going to have to settle for something at some point before hopefully your defense gives out. I do think, though, that Derek White, you know, Derek White drew Holiday to all league defenders, as we've said, where they factor into this series and how is going to be fascinating. because Derek White, maybe he ends up being the primary on Kyrie. I kind of think he'll be more of a secondary option there.
Starting point is 00:12:25 And where his greatest value may be for Boston's defense in these finals is playing more of a roving spot. You know, when Luca throws those cross-court passes that are always on the money, maybe he can be the guy who's breaking off to intercept them, anticipating that sort of action more than Derek White as, you know, go-to defensive stopper against even these two great isolation options. Yeah, we're going to get into the Biggs a little later. But I also think this is kind of paired the look of conversation with how much they're playing
Starting point is 00:12:53 through the corners as well. Chris Herring had this stat that I loved from a recent ESPN preview where in the playoffs, the Celtics are allowing 23.5% from three from the corners. And that's better than they're a league best mark over the regular season, which is 35.2. The MAVs took 984 corner threes this regular season at a 40.4% rate. And so clearly that is in conjunction with what's happening there, right? If you're going to help off of that, clearly Luca is going to be able to hit the rolling bigs, hit the guys in the corners. And so I wonder how much that's going to be another instance of how much of the self is going to be able to do what they want to do, which is keep guys off of those corners versus bring help toward Luca. So, and the three point shooting, we should mention, also has been a
Starting point is 00:13:42 big part of Luca's individual success of this postseason. I think they're six and five when Lucas has shot under 36% from three. So a lot of these things are kind of connected. I mean, game five, he won that damn thing in the first quarter by having a complete scorcher from three. Like the game was one because this man went out and dropped 20 in the first quarter, four threes in the process. So yeah, obviously there's some to that. But you know, that that 980 attempt from the corner three is hilarious, but that's the offense you can generate when you have Luca Donchich at the hell. It's also going to be interesting for Boston to see who is guarding those threes because in particular, you know, say they, whether they're switching or doing a more traditional kind of drop-type
Starting point is 00:14:25 pick and roll coverage, whatever it is Boston ends up going to out of the gate, they want to keep Al Horford and even Chrisapswitz away from Luca Donchich. And what that's going to mean is those guys are probably not going to be guarding Daniel Gafford and Derek lively. on a full-time basis. It's going to be, can we put them on Derek Jones and get away with it? Can we put them on PJ Washington
Starting point is 00:14:46 and get away with it? Can we put them on Josh Green later in the game and get away with it? And so for those guys, they're going to be guarding the corners and there's going to be that constant temptation, especially if you're Porzingas,
Starting point is 00:14:55 who's a good rim protector, do you rotate over on that backline as Lucas kind of slinking his way through the paint and try to affect his shot, but in the process, give up what could be a wide open three to, a pretty credible three-point cast for the Mavs.
Starting point is 00:15:10 Yeah. And that's why I think this is probably less a Luca conversation. Because Lucas is just going to get his. He's probably going to have a 30 point triple double if he's having a reasonably good game. And more about some of those other guys around there. PJ Washington in particular really had a rough Western Conference finals from an offensive perspective. And so if he's not hitting, that just makes things easier for the Celtics. And they have so many options defensively already.
Starting point is 00:15:33 And so I wonder if that just like tightens up a little bit of what else Luca could do beyond get his. Can we have a conversation about that as far as sort of the devil's advocate position on whether you should trap Luca Donchich at the beginning of basically every game? And I think there's a couple reasons to do it. One, Waz, you're avoiding the game five scenario where he comes out guns of blazing, just torching whoever is in front of him. But moreover, I think what the value of that strategy could be if you want to go to it is you're forcing the ball to these corner shooters right out of the gate.
Starting point is 00:16:06 and let's say they miss two or three of those looks in a row. Let's say they miss a couple good opportunities cutting backdoor and they just aren't able to convert them. The value of that to me isn't just, oh, we won the first quarter because the Mavs only scored 22 points. Can we start to fray some of the trust in those passes by making Luca make difficult reads out of traps and then those guys can't convert?
Starting point is 00:16:30 What can we get psychologically out of that sort of thing? So if you can guarantee me that the guy that's taking most of, the shots and having to do most of the reads is Derek White, then cool. I'm with that, but like, I hate the alternative of one, Kyriek constantly attacking a scrambling Boston defense and to PJ Washington, you know, having those games like he did in Oklahoma where this guy can't miss a freaking shot. I don't want to play an entire game where I have, where I feel like I have to guard this guy, where I have to dart out on closeouts, where I have to like literally react to any action that might go his way.
Starting point is 00:17:07 I like the idea of, you know, this guy doesn't know when his next shot is going to come and he's not in a rhythm and he has to build that rhythm. I'd much rather that, but I feel you in a sense that Luca, you know, most stars, superstars like tend to do the, oh, I'm going to get the feel of the game and then take over where I need Pete Lucas's like, no, I'm just going to try to score immediately. I'm just going to try to dominate right now as soon as the ball goes up. He's got the feel of the game. He's walking into the arena with the.
Starting point is 00:17:34 feel for the game. And the counterpoint to the counterpoint to the counterpoint, Justin, is, yeah, you can play with those percentages and dare other non-Luca Mavs to beat you and hope that they're not Kyrie one pass away. But then Derek Jones is hitting like almost 50% of his threes in the Western Conference finals. PJ Washington, I agree, didn't have the best offensive series, but when he finally did get daylight was hitting from the corners in the way that we're used to. Yeah, I almost feel like it plays into Lucas' hand to allow him to get off and then start sending help because when you're scrambling, and especially when he's playing from an advantage, it seems like that's when he's most dangerous because he's going to get you as you're in rotation
Starting point is 00:18:11 or as you're trying to cover or make something else happen. And so I think there's going to be a point, probably in game one even, where that happens. And we have to see if Joe Missoula will stick to the plan, we'll do what he wants to do, which is not send the extra help, or he's just going to have to deal with Luca cooking regardless of whoever he is in front of him. And so I, I think we'll hit that in game one probably at some point. I wouldn't be surprised if we see it most games even. And if honestly, I can see that dictating a lot of just the series as a whole.
Starting point is 00:18:43 There's also one little device. Here's one free hack that the Mavs could use to unlock their offense. Ball, like guard to guard ball screens. We haven't seen them do very much of it in these playoffs. I don't know exactly why that is. But we're, you know, as we're unpacking this, and if we think Derek White in particular is to, small to guard Luca. If we think Drew Holiday
Starting point is 00:19:04 might be too small to guard Luca and either of those guys regarding Kyrie, you use Kyrie as the screener for Luca and then one of two things is going to happen, you're going to get a switch with Luca against a smaller player he can attack or the two guys trapping him are going to leave Kyrie one pass away and he gets to make all the decisions against a tilted defense. I think it could
Starting point is 00:19:22 go a long way towards breaking down one of the best defensive teams in the league. I think some of this has to do with whether or not Porzingas is there to deter the inside and some of the role guys, but we'll get to that. a bit. Before that, we have our next question. So, Isaiah, hit it. Jesus Christ. It's also got a daft punk vibe to it, too. I just thought about that. Like, the strobe lights made me think of the robots. So daft punk, deep space nine, it's all happening right now.
Starting point is 00:19:52 I'm into it. I'm sorry about you guys. Clearly, you're definitely the type where I could see you having an alternate DJ persona where you wear some giant like animal head, like a mascot type head, You know, as part of your bit. Is that be a segment at the live show? If you would like it to be, we'll go full furry with you, Justin. DJJV while you spoon soup into my mouth. Yeah, it should be fun. DJV for short.
Starting point is 00:20:17 Let's just, let's tighten that up, editor. I like it. I like it. All right. Next question. Did the East Finals ease your anxieties about the Celtics decision making? Wads, I feel like this is a question for you. I mean, I don't feel worse.
Starting point is 00:20:31 Like, I'm not like, oh, the Celtics are a worst decision-making. team than I thought. I just think the Celtics talent-wise, like they're good enough talent-wise to win the championship. They just don't always, like when it's time to stray from whatever their rigid-ass philosophy of basketball, which is jack a bunch of threes, right? On offense, particularly. Whenever it's time to deviate from that, it feels like they struggle. Maybe they will find it in this series, and there will be a time where it's just like, look, man, we can't just keep jacking up threes. We need to deviate from that. We need to let Drew Holiday stick his shoulder into somebody's chest and get to the rack or get to the free throw line. We need to let Jalen Brown, you know,
Starting point is 00:21:13 pursue his instinct to attack the basket. Like, are they going to be able to deviate from the plan? That's my question about the Celtics. Now, did they ever really have to in the Eastern Conference finals? That's the thing. They did not. Again, I'm not going to be like, oh, they're even worse than I thought I don't feel that way, but I need to see them actually do that. They did look good in crunch time. And sometimes it took crazy shot making from Jalen Brown or Jason Tatum to get there. But that's what life in the NBA is, especially life in the playoffs. You need crazy shot making from your best players.
Starting point is 00:21:49 And Boston did the thing. We've been kind of waiting for them to do all season, which is be good down the stretch of some of those games and in those moments. And look, God knows if you're playing against Kyrie Irving and Luca Donchich, you're going to have to be able to match those guys. at some point in a series like this one, especially if the game is in any kind of balance. I think there's two sub-questions within this, Justin,
Starting point is 00:22:10 about the Celtics decision-making. There's the clutch part of that, where we saw them do well against the Pacers. And then there's kind of what you're alluding to, which is the second and third quarters of these games, when things can kind of go off the rails for them at times, and they do get a little too much into their process. And I am reassured by the fact that they find a way.
Starting point is 00:22:31 Like this is a team that is so talented that they don't even have to play well to win and I think there's a really realistic chance they win the title without really having played a great game in these NBA finals and maybe a great game at any point in these playoffs like they have that in them and so that might be what ends up happening
Starting point is 00:22:47 I still wonder at some of those wayward points like how hard and fast do you want to stick to what does you think you want to do and in particular the Mavs are a really good rotation team that have been able to chase shooters off the line in all of these series. And in a way that feeds into the way the Celtics want to play for better and worse, like if they just get into that, like that blender for the entirety of the shot clock
Starting point is 00:23:11 and keep looking for the better shot, I think that could actually wind up playing to Dallas's advantage. But ultimately, I kind of fall back on the fact that their decision making just doesn't have to be perfect. It doesn't have to be great. It can just be pretty good. And they're so talented, especially if Porzingis is healthy enough to play, that they could win the series anyway. So the Celtics and the playoffs were four and no in clutch situations.
Starting point is 00:23:35 Now, one of those happened to be game one of the Eastern Conference finals where they're practically gifted that win. And does three and one look as good as four or no? Definitely not. But Matt, six and three, you got to take a gift, you know? A hundred percent. You got to receive it. Much like my artistry to you, Rob, you have to receive this gift that I'm giving to you. Are we not going to acknowledge though? Like the clutch situation, the competition, like, it's, they're levels. They're levels to be in clutch. I'll say this, though, in the regular season.
Starting point is 00:24:08 So the Mavs were second in clutch winning percentage. The Celtics were four. Wow, that surprises me. It does, yeah. But I think the whole thing just feeds into your general perception, everyone's general perception of the Celtics, which is like, on paper, they are incredible, which when you watch it in practice,
Starting point is 00:24:23 it's just not as seamless, and it doesn't reflect what you're seeing on the data readout. So, just to be clear, My thought of the Celtics is not that they can't be clutch. It's that I'd like to see them do it against real teams consistently. I just want to see it happen. I'm not saying they're incapable, right? So this question ultimately, like, when I think of teams from the past,
Starting point is 00:24:47 I think of, like, the Warriors when they won it in 2015, when they came up, they went down to 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies, and it's like, holy shit, was this whole thing of, fucking fraud and is not going to actually work and like what the hell's going to happen. And then they was like, hold up, man, we don't got to guard Tony Allen. We're going to do this. We're going to blah, blah, blah. Keep going.
Starting point is 00:25:08 Like they found an answer for a problem that they had not previously faced. Or in the Celtics case, they faced this problem. They just haven't done anything about it. But you know what I mean? Like, just problem solving on the fly. I just wonder if they're going to have it in them to do that. That's it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:27 They sure had the cable. ability in the pieces to do that. Come on. There are a historically great regular season team that we believe in enough to want them to play that way. And I think what works about the Celtics is by having so many shooters and guys who operated a high level and do make baseline smart decisions, they put other teams in so many binds that they just win out in the aggregate, right? If you have to guard all these guys driving and attacking and dishing and shooting, eventually that wears you down. And I think that's going to be a big part of the series, too, the mental fatigue of both
Starting point is 00:26:01 of these teams runs. The Mavs have been through a lot to get through this point. That team is like emotionally speaking, mentally speaking, worn down in a way that the Celtics by level of competition are probably not. And how that may pay off, again, when you get into these blender situations, when you're getting into game three and game four of the series and you have to deal with everything that Boston puts out there, that takes a lot out of anybody. Even a team that's like as good and as plucky and as great in the clutch as the mavs are. They may not make it to the clutch in some of these games because the Celtics just beat you outright in the interim.
Starting point is 00:26:33 Yeah, I also wonder how much the Celtics abundance of options and guys that you have to guard puts Miles on Kyrie and Luca on the defensive end. They really didn't have to do a ton. Luca has been great defensively at times. Kyrie has been active in a way that I think we overlooked because so much has changed in the NBA that we forgot that superstars tend to lock in on defense in the playoffs. And so a pretty bad defender like Luca in the regular season just kind of leverages his advantages in the postseason. All of a sudden, it's not as much of a sore spot.
Starting point is 00:27:06 But you're going to have to get out on a lot of shooters in this series. I mean, this is probably a backdoor Christop's conversation. But just like there's going to be a lot to get after. And I think they did a good job Dallas did of limiting OKC shooters in that series. That was like one of the best three-point shooting teams in the regular season. and they had like just an okay game. But the Thunder don't have as many sure shooters as I think the Celtics do. I think like the Thunder, because of their lineup, Jenga, put out guys like Giddy and whatnot,
Starting point is 00:27:37 who you would expect to miss some of the shots that were left open to them. I don't think you're going to get that advantage with the Celtics. And so I almost wonder if this question is as much about the MAV's defense as it is about the Celtics offense. Well, if you want to backdoor that conversation, Justin, and the larger Chris Saps-Pors-Zingis conversation, Do you want to cue us up with the drop for question three? I appreciate that. And yes, I do. It's an abbreviated version.
Starting point is 00:28:08 I appreciate it. I don't want the full sting every time. That was actually Isaiah's gift to you guys. I was like, just two, 25 seconds every time. Question number three. Who has the big advantage in this series Dallas's bouncy rim protectors or Boston spacers? Rob?
Starting point is 00:28:25 Yeah. So I think not to sort of divert the question right out of the gate, but this has as much to do with the other Mavericks defenders too and how they chase guys off the line. Because on its face, I kind of lean toward Boston spacers and they're spacing bigs in particular having a bigger effect on this series. Just because in the other ones, as you mentioned with Josh Giddy and the other matchups the Mazz have had, there's been somewhere to put Gaffert or lively, right? You can put him on Rudy Gobert and Gobert's not going to score outside of basically the length of his arm, give or take, an occasional Jordan fade away.
Starting point is 00:28:59 you can put them on Josh Giddy and get away with, you know, whatever Giddy is going to take from three or whatever cuts he tries to make. Where do you put Gafferden Lively in this matchup? You know, I'm sure they will at times challenge Al Horford and say like,
Starting point is 00:29:14 you know what, tonight we're going to see if you can hit the better part of 10 threes. I'm sure that that game is coming. But as far as like non-traditional matchups in the starting lineup or really in the top six, Waz like I still see like a safe place to put the bigs. And if you can't put them anywhere,
Starting point is 00:29:29 are safe, how do they stay near the basket to protect it? So I wanted to come out here and say the Mavs, bigs, have the big advantage. But it's hard for me to be like Gafford and a rookie are better than Chris Stabs and Al Horford. Again, I get it. Al Horford's a little longer in the tooth. But like, Porzengis literally took the top off of this offense and turned it into a goddamn sports car convertible.
Starting point is 00:29:55 Like, that actually happened. I mean, Gafford and Lively did just outplay an All-Star and the defensive player of the year. For sure. And those guys, and the reason why I was tempted to go that way, just for clarity, is like, because they do play big. Like, these guys are huge. They make it very hard to score in the paint. They, when teams did put little guys on them throughout these playoffs, Lively took a minute before he could make a freaking layup.
Starting point is 00:30:22 Like, he had the first two rounds where he just bricked layup after layup. But, like, they've made people. pay. They've played like big guys aggressively and hunting those matchups. But I think Chris Stavs, if he can, you know, still provide coming off of the calf situation, still provide some resistance at the cup. And of course, it's not just that he spaces like Al, it's that he spaces out to like 28 feet. You know, that's the big deal right there. And so, yeah, I'll give the Celtics the slight advantage, particularly when you consider injuries and things like that. But also, I'm not going to be surprised if Jason Kidd schemes up a way to keep his bigs closer to the basket
Starting point is 00:31:06 than we think. I know we're doing like this geometry problem where it's like, well, there are five guys around the perimeter and where the hell is the guy going to go? Like if he's going to guard people. Like Jason Kidd has been really, really creative, man. And so I wouldn't be surprised if he finds a way to make sure, you know, there's a big over there at some point. Yeah, that was the other thing that jumped out to me watching the game from March is just how good Christops is and how much he fuels the rest of everything that they do. And I think that harkens back to the decision-making conversation.
Starting point is 00:31:35 It does felt like the natural order of the Celtics with Christops in there is that Christops takes the first half or the first quarter and then it gives way to that other stuff so that they might have an advantage just in points, but also maybe Jalen and Jason are freer or a little bit more spry. And then they kind of come in. And it's almost like a two-prong attack. in the way that the maps have had Luca giving way to Kyrie.
Starting point is 00:31:58 And so having Christops is a completely different scenario than what we've seen for the Celtics. There's also just the part of that where everyone looks so much more brilliant when they have even more space to work with. And the difference between the Al Horford space and the Chris Staps for Zingas space is pretty profound. I feel like the defenses feel like they can get out to Al.
Starting point is 00:32:16 Al is hugging the three point line. Hugging the three point line. He'll also, he will have games where he goes three for 12. Like he does have those games. Now, by percentage, still a really good three-point shooter. But sometimes with playoff series, you want to see if like, can we get the variance on this one night? And can we get, can we steal this one by challenging the lesser of our bad options to hit threes? And oftentimes that's Al Horford.
Starting point is 00:32:42 Like you don't want Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown and Derek White and Drew Holiday, who's now hitting 40% of his threes. You don't want those guys taking those shots necessarily. Yeah. I mean, I wonder if the Mavs and Kid will. see someone who's struggling. Like, Christops can be streaky at time. The percentages have been sterling the past two seasons. But, you know, like, if he's not hitting, maybe all of a sudden you park a guy in the lane
Starting point is 00:33:03 make him beat you that way. But it's just a completely different team. I have the Celtics down as 46 and 15 with a 75% winning percentage with Christops. It's including the however many games he played in the playoffs. The one wrinkle to all of this, though, is it seemed like Missoula, when things got tight would default to a double big situation. And even saw this earlier in the regular season. The playoffs in particular, he did that.
Starting point is 00:33:29 I wonder if that impulse is going to be there, but I almost wonder again if that plays into the map's hand, because I think your advantage is having the shooters out there in order to spread them out and cover so much ground. But Missoula will ultimately be like, oh, we're losing the rebounding battle. We need to get Tillman in there. And it's just like, don't do that. Actually, this is the series where I almost want Joe to be default Joe. not ambitious, non-micke Boodenholzer style joke.
Starting point is 00:33:56 Yeah, I don't think the answer to anything at this point is to get Tillman in there. He hasn't looked good. Really, very few of Boston's bench players have. And this is a part of the Chris Hussinger's conversation, too. If he's not healthy, they really only had five guys who had any kind of positive impact on the Eastern Conference finals. That can change quickly. You know, Payton Pritcher can go off and have a great series.
Starting point is 00:34:18 We did see some good minutes here and there from O'Shea Bresset. a little late, but some good stints in small, like small amounts of time, I just don't know how many Celtics beyond those top guys I really trust. And maybe that doesn't matter in the NBA finals. Maybe you can ride six, even if one of them is coming off of an injury, pretty hard and get as far as you need to go and just kind of grit and bear it with whoever you need to plug into the lineup. But if we're looking for release points for any kind of Mavs defender, some of it may come down to like, I don't know, is Luke Cornett on the floor? You know, it's like, who can we exploit that's not one of their core guys and how much will those players actually play?
Starting point is 00:34:54 I will say I think lively will get enough off of activity just because if he's healthy, we'll say that first and foremost. He had the next train he did play in that last game. And obviously we're still awaiting the specific diagnosis on Christops or his availability for the series. We're kind of operating under the assumption that he is going to play because everything is kind of going in that direction, but we're recording this on Saturday afternoon. It's still up in the air there.
Starting point is 00:35:15 But I think lively has shown enough that he can just be bouncy and has the motor and whatnot to do so did you guys realize that he didn't miss a shot the entire western conference finals? 14 to 15 something shots. 16 for 16. Layups and dunks. I get it. But just catching as we saw on the other end of things with the wolves. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:37 It could be half the battle. Also, I don't know if you guys knew this. Lively has played now 16 playoff games in his first year. Chris Dops throughout his entire career, 14 games. Wow. So Lifeley is actually. That's a wild step. Maybe something to consider, folks.
Starting point is 00:35:56 Yeah. All right. Next question. Wait, hold on. Do we have to hold on? Hell yeah. The finger guns just killed me, man. You're doing four different visual bits at once on a podcast.
Starting point is 00:36:21 I know. I'm like the Celtics offense. There's just a lot going on here. With Fandals, never too late to get in on the action this NBA playoffs because right now new customers get 150 bucks in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet. That's $150 to use on same game parlay's live bets, championship futures, exclusive markets, and so much more. So we have game one of the NBA finals coming up on Thursday.
Starting point is 00:36:48 I got to say, I like the Celtics at home minus six and a half. That's kind of a pretty high spread considering the way that the maps have been playing. know at this point right now if Chris Stops is going to be playing how much he's going to be playing what does his rotation look like but I still think if he's in there the Celtics win that one and that crowd can get on top of the other team so give me the Celtics minus six and a half in game one of the NBA finals and with Fandul there's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sports book just go to fandul.com slash ringer NBA to get started Fandul official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and 18 plus in DC
Starting point is 00:37:24 and present in select states, excluding North Carolina, gambling problem, call 1,800 gambler, or visit RG-dashelp.com, first online real money wager only, $10 deposit required, bonus bets are non-withdrawable
Starting point is 00:37:36 and expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fandle.com. Number four, who's the most intriguing figure in this series? Was, do you want to go first? Yeah, he's come up a lot,
Starting point is 00:37:50 but I think it's Drew Holiday. I think if he's, if he is a, factor on both ends, meaning we don't get wild and crazy and mysterious Drew Holiday offense where he's completely taking him out of their stuff, shooting stepbacks that are contested and generally playing wild. If he's contributing on offense and he's contributing, meaning he's making life harder for Luca or Kyrie or both when he draws the assignment, I feel like that's the key to Boston winning the series. If they, if they, if they, if they, if
Starting point is 00:38:24 They don't meaning, if they're not meaningfully able to bother Luca or Kyrie, I don't think they can win. And I think Drew Holiday has to be one of, if not two of the people that is performing that task. So to me, he holds the key to the series, to be honest. I'm going to take that and go even broader and say that Kyrie is one of the most intriguing figures, if not the most intriguing figure in the series. For exactly the reasons you mentioned, was like you got to take him out.
Starting point is 00:38:53 stepping on the Celtic head. That was fun. Stepped on the Celtic head. He saged up that building. He is the narrative focal point of this series. At the point where an opposing fan base is chanting that they want you. You become the main character. And in a lot of ways, he will be the main character of these NBA finals.
Starting point is 00:39:12 He also is the player with probably the most to say about what the Mavs do if and when Luca gets trapped. If the ball is forced out of his hands, he's going to have to do a lot. He's going to be critical in breaking down one of the best defensive teams. in the league if that can be done. And he's also going to be doing something that he hasn't been doing a lot of lately, which is play basketball in the city of Boston. It's been five years since he was a Celtic.
Starting point is 00:39:35 During that time, he has played in Boston all of four times. There's been... In B-level ducking. You know, some of those are real injuries. Some of those are mysterious absences. As you mentioned, Justin, the last time they were in Boston, he played with the Mavs this season. There's some interesting stuff in that game to pull.
Starting point is 00:39:53 pull up, although it's, you know, both teams at very different points relative to where they are now. But Kyrie did not shoe well, one for seven from three in that game. Clearly there's a lot to exercise here for the Celtics and Kyrie both. And I look forward to watching him attempt to do it. I look forward to them trying to quash his dreams. Just seeing these two old friends on both sides of it, I think is going to make for great basketball. Here's the question. Do you think all of the Celtics young players rush over to Kyrie and hug him before tip off of game one?
Starting point is 00:40:23 Do you think we'll see that? Or have been enough? Tatum definitely shows him some love off the Duke shit. Well, their relationship is reportedly much better than the Kyrie, Jalen Brown relationship, for example, which may have improved somewhat over time, but you don't get the impression those two were quite fast friends during his Celtics time. I thought Jalen and Kyrie were closer now. That may be true now.
Starting point is 00:40:46 Yeah. I mean, they don't call Jalen Brown peach tree Kyrie for no reason, y'all. I'll just say that. Yeah, there's some. There's some synergies there that would make me think that they could piss each other off, honestly. I think I think Jalen has at times worn Kyrie's shoes and like kind of backed him during Kyrie's like pushback against Nike. Like they're aligned.
Starting point is 00:41:09 They says Kyrie and Brown are not friends. Are now friends. Yeah. Gotcha. I think we've had meaningful progress. You know, over time, anyone can mend fences, you know, we can make irresponsible bets regarding the Denver Nuggets, we can feed each other soup,
Starting point is 00:41:23 and then all is forgiven. And they'll both show up on a New York City sidewalk yelling about the true chosen people of God. It'll be fantastic, guys. That's certainly a possibility. Just get some gazpacho going, and everything will be fine.
Starting point is 00:41:36 I will say this. During these playoffs, you know, Kyrie has asked constantly about Luca's exploits and especially coming out of the Western Conference Finals. There's a lot of talk about Luca and Anthony Edwards, these two young stars in the league. He would go out of his way,
Starting point is 00:41:50 to kind of list out the tier of young stars, always including Tatum and Brown. So he's certainly doffing the cap, and when he's been given the bait of what is playing against the Celtics mean to you, man, he is ducking and dodging. He's weaving around that question.
Starting point is 00:42:08 He's dancing, just like he's dribbling a basketball. Yes, the man knows how to deek, that's for sure. Well, I want to go back to Waz's point about Drew Holiday because maybe these are all kind of connected. I think this gets back to my point. about the Mavs having to guard the Celtics. I do think that Luca will probably be tasked with guarding Drew. And so what Drew can do offensively,
Starting point is 00:42:29 in addition to what he can do defensively against Luca, I think might be a sneaky key to this series, if only because, like, if you're going to slouch off of somebody, if Drew's not hitting, which he tends to do at times, like, obviously that's someone you could pick. I also think, like, the Celtics have done an awesome job with getting Drew involved, both early in the game when he has, like, a bad game and making sure that he has the reps early,
Starting point is 00:42:50 almost like you want to feed the big in certain situations just to get his hands on the ball because Drew does so much else for this team, but also late just attacking mismatches in the post. Drew can post up Kyrie for one, but I also think he could have some success against Aluka. I know Luke was bigger than him, but like Drew's like a fucking rock solid dude at this point.
Starting point is 00:43:08 I don't know. If the Celtics offense is redounding to Drew Holiday postups against Luca Donchich, they're having major problems. It's not. It's just one of the options that I don't know. So to me, to me why you got to put Luca on Drew Holiday, because it's like on screens, you can just go under.
Starting point is 00:43:26 You know what I mean? And Luca's been, has been doing a good, a better job than has previously ever been in his freaking life. I think, I think Van McMahon brought this up where like one of the Mavs assistant coaches used to always yell at him 450 because he was the 450 ranked defensive player in the NBA, right? Like, I think the cool thing about professional guys and having professional pride, once you're starting three plus plus plus defenders,
Starting point is 00:43:58 Kyrie and Luca now have so much pride. They're like, bro, I can't just be the obvious weakest link. And I have to rise up my level. I think Drew Holliday is a fine matchup for Luca Donchage. The backdoor Drew Slander is noted and just rebuked. Well, I'll say this. Drew's been off in this postseason. He's like one of the best postseason.
Starting point is 00:44:17 Yeah. And it's been a popular strategy throughout the regular season. Start is shaky, but he's on track now. Teams have tried to get away with the like put your center on Drew and leverage that matchup and dare him to shoot. And he's burned some people along the way all throughout the regular season and hearing these playoffs when they've attempted to do that. I think his shot has been good enough.
Starting point is 00:44:38 And I do think Luca or otherwise, the mads will try to go under on some of his ball screens and dare him to take those shots. though the catch and shoots are obviously kind of a different matter for him. What I like about Luca in that matchup is not to do the full Nicola Yoakish is Akema Lajuan bit, and I don't want to overstate Luca's defensive value. Someone could put together a pretty sizzling reel of Luca Donchage closeouts in these playoffs, where he is hard charging, flying out at people in a way that, frankly, I did not expect him to do, and I don't think I've ever seen him do before.
Starting point is 00:45:11 So the fact that he's been able to make up ground and actually get two guys in the corner, that makes me think, one, I feel okay with him on a borderline shooter like Drew and playing off it and trying to help and gum up things inside too. I also feel good about him at his size guarding a smaller player and flying out at them
Starting point is 00:45:27 and what kind of disruption that could cause. There's a real Hulk quality to Luca, especially during the playoffs, where it's almost like his rage fits just to allow him to be more precise and just active than he typically is. Do not antagonize. him. That is clearly the lesson we've learned, but also,
Starting point is 00:45:43 you know, not to marvelize this podcast. Or don't antagonize him and he's just going to make up and, you know, antagonist anyway. Like, you don't have to actually do it. He's going to invent one. But how is he going to cope if Kyrie is the primary antagonist and no one really bothers heckling Luca anymore?
Starting point is 00:46:00 You know, apparently he loves Kyrie to death. So if you, if you heckle Kyrie, he's going to turn that into a personal heckle of himself. Like, I don't know. I think Luke is going to be pissed, play pissed off no matter what. And before we get off of this, I just want to say one thing, because this has been rolling through social media and getting on my goddamn nerves. Oh, let's hear it. I'm somebody who has given a lot of love to what Kyrie's been doing this postseason.
Starting point is 00:46:27 Basically, his whole stint in Dallas, he's obviously been mega positive, both on and off the floor. He's endeared himself to the team. He's been a model citizen. And as a fan of the game, is dope to see one of our stars no longer soaking around like a baby. I'm happy to see Kyrie happy. He seems that be in a great place. He seems very contented. However, we don't owe that Negro an apology. I'm sorry, bro.
Starting point is 00:46:56 Like, the contempt and ire that he drew in the past few years was deserved. No, but he was not wrong. We don't have to go back and change the course of his. No, he was being a jerk at times. He was being ridiculous. And even if you want to say, yo, I defended his right to not get the Vax. All right, cool. Whatever.
Starting point is 00:47:20 Like, that still doesn't mean like all this other stuff that he participated in in Brooklyn was not ridiculous. I'm sorry. You don't got, like, we can give him praise for finding himself and doing this thing and, like, being one of the most fun guys to watch our whole season without doing the... The praise better be as loud as the whole season. to be as loud as the apology or whatever people say on so. I'm just like nobody owes Kyrie an apology bro. I 100% agree.
Starting point is 00:47:47 If you're interested in this subject I would implore you to visit the ringer.com later this week. Two, maybe sometimes it's possible that the entirety or the majority of the basketball or NBA world is not wrong.
Starting point is 00:48:03 And in fact, Kyrie Irving has changed a lot about the way he operates as a teammate, as a in the world as an adult human being. I believe in that capacity and I believe in his personal growth. And genuinely, he's spoken to it. So I don't know why we would be like we'd be going out of our way. But I'm not crazy.
Starting point is 00:48:23 You guys have seen this redemption art for Kyrie. Like he was persecuted like the Lord and Savior himself. People want to conflate it with like the Daniel Gafford trade where the Mavs unlocked this like better version of him as a human. No, he's just like he did something. something bad in the past. He's gotten better as a teammate and a basketball player. And it's okay to say both things.
Starting point is 00:48:44 By the way, one more thing to that. I want to give props to Nico Harrison and the entire Mab's front office for cultivating a structural environment where it's not just these guys come in and we kiss their asses all up and down the place and give them the run of the place and be shocked that they're not good at managing an entire organization by themselves as Hoopers. That was the opposite of what happened in Brooklyn. And I think you see what those folks kind of reap what they sowed. I think that's part of it too.
Starting point is 00:49:23 In Dallas, like, it's professionalism, man. Like, they're not just saying, like, Kyrie can't just show up and be like, do we need Jason Kidd as a coach? Do we even need a coach? That's Lucas job. Like, stop it. I will say the Mavs do bend over backward for Luca, but you're right. It's different when Kyrie comes in as the clear-cut number two.
Starting point is 00:49:47 We maybe don't need as much as the guy who's operating everything. Yeah. It's also like this whole conversation, however you want to enter into the Kyrie revisionist history, like battleground, it's not just people like us. It's not just other journalists. It's not just people on Twitter. you can tell what the NBA and other teams and other general managers thought of Kyrie Irving by the minimal return he fetched in trade.
Starting point is 00:50:14 Exactly. People were extremely worried about his long-term prospects as a player. And he did a lot and he has done a lot to change that impression and to change that image and rather than relitigating give him credit for doing that. Yeah. That's what I want to celebrate what he's doing now. It's fun. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:50:35 Totally. Just to wrap this question up, I have Joe Missoula written down for the reasons I've kind of been insinuating along the way. I do think the most interesting
Starting point is 00:50:44 matchup might be Luca versus Joe Mazza. Is it because of this letterboxed account or is it his coach? Wait, is he actually on letterbox or is it just the town? I doubt it. His four favorites are just the town,
Starting point is 00:50:55 the town, the town, the town. Yeah, period. One of them's the departed, actually. It's when he's feeling a little spicy. No,
Starting point is 00:51:01 although, did you guys catch the, the quote of him the other day when a reporter asked him about Kyrie being perceived as a villain in the series. And his response is, we're all villains in someone's eyes. Wow. So maybe he's watching Batman now, too.
Starting point is 00:51:19 Whose eyes are we villains? Wait, whose eyes in are we villains of? Or however you would have construct that sentence? The Rollins. Podcast. Logan Murdoch, we're calling you out. Howard, come on. No, but I do think like the cat and mouse game between Missoula and Luca is going to be interesting
Starting point is 00:51:39 because Luca puts so much stress on an entire structure and just watching the way he's able to manipulate literally anything that someone throws against him is one of the most fascinating things and doing so in such like a slow motion but yet like super thread the needle precise sort of way is one of my favorite things. And so seeing how much Missoula is going to counter how much she's going to stick to the plan. Honestly, I think might determine the series. I do feel like the deliberate way that Luca breaks people down makes it so much more painful and hard to play against
Starting point is 00:52:13 than if he were an explosive athlete. There is something to the fact that it's like you see it coming. You know, like it's not that you can't stay in front of him because he's quicker than you. It's that you can't stay in front of him because he's outthinking you. And he's beating your defense basically on the fundamentals of your own scheme. He knows what you're running in and out,
Starting point is 00:52:32 almost better than you do. And that creates all kinds of problems. And as we've seen it, it's led to basically tearing some teams apart. All right. Two more questions. Hit it, Isaiah. I know you're going for Star Trek and really the future,
Starting point is 00:52:51 but it is more of a Doc Brown, like where we're going, we don't need roads kind of visor that you found. Is that Back to the Future three? That's the end of Back to the Future One. So I guess you are going to the future in a way. Great. I love it.
Starting point is 00:53:07 I don't know most of what you're, saying right now, but we'll go with it. This is a two-parter. First one, Dallas wins if. Rob, you want to go first? The games are close. Hmm. That's spicy. I mean, we talked about the most intriguing factors and figures in this series.
Starting point is 00:53:25 Big series for the clutch gene. Big series for clutch play. I know Boston has been better, but as we've said, there are levels to that and levels to the kind of clutch competition they're going to see. I would not want to be in a close game with Luca and Kyrie. I would not want to be in a close game with this rim protection and this offensive rebounding and all of these role players for the Mavs that have been stepping up and hitting huge shots. But I think there's obviously kind of layered and you can bullet point this out. It's if the
Starting point is 00:53:49 games are close, if the Mavs win some of that shooting variance with Boston's Biggs and Al Horford or Chris Daps have bad shooting nights and are dared to shoot and can't convert, I think Dallas could easily steal this series away from them. If the Mavs can keep the flow of their offense against another elite defensive opponent and it doesn't devolve into isolation your turn, my turn, offense, which Dallas is so careful to avoid, but sometimes you can't avoid it.
Starting point is 00:54:15 If they can stay out of that, I think they win this series. I also think they win this series that Chris Epsborzingis is not a full participant in it. And that could be he plays but isn't fully right. That could mean he starts the series but doesn't finish it.
Starting point is 00:54:29 Boston needs him. And Justin, you already spoke to how much that unlocks for them, but like they also just need. the bodies and the quality players in the rotation to get through this against the team like Dallas. Yeah. So I would take it one step beyond Luca and just say if Luca gets enough help, they'll win this series, because I think Luca's going to get his regardless. I think we've kind of outlined that. I think he's going to have like a 30 point triple double or thereabouts,
Starting point is 00:54:50 pretty much damn every game. But if he's able to activate the livelihoods and the Gaffords, the PJ Washington's, then it's just an overwhelming amount of offense that even a historic best in class offense like the Celtics just can't keep up with. Wise, what do you have? I think the Mavericks win if the Celtics don't singe their eyeballs and eyelashes off from three point lines.
Starting point is 00:55:12 So if they get decent three point luck from the Celtics, I think they're going to win this because I just don't know why I should think the Celtics are going to take them out of what they want to do. Like, they couldn't take the Pacers
Starting point is 00:55:25 out of what they wanted to do. Like, I feel like the Mavs are harder to guard than the Pacers. Is that crazy? crazy to me like that seems reasonable right and so you know and again to me the mabs are going to be the ones getting the most like what we call easy buckets right like a bigger guy on a cross match pins a guy down you know on a transition gets too easy free throws lobs which are basically like 85% field goal attempts like corner threes it's a generating corner threes like i think
Starting point is 00:55:57 they're going to get the better, they're going to generate the better offense throughout the course of the series. But, you know, if Chris Staps is making 28 footers with regularity and that just jumbles up the way you want to guard these guys, if Al Horford is shooting at a 40-something percent clip, like, you know, if Jason Tatum is making a nice percent of his off-the-drible jump shots, like, then yeah, I think Boston's going to win, but I think Dallas is going to generally get the more system, the more, you know, quality looks, if you will. Let's through the flip side now. Boston wins if.
Starting point is 00:56:36 I'm going to go first here. Porzingis shows up. Now, again, we don't know how much he's going to play in this series, if he's going to play in this series. But if we get a reasonably healthy Porzingis, I do think it changes the calculus of everything that the Celtics do. I'm both glad and also kind of disappointed in myself for going back and watching that old regular season game,
Starting point is 00:56:57 because I almost feel like I got lulled into this alternate timeline before the Mavs really clicked into place and are the version that we've seen throughout this postseason. But good God, the Celtics with Porzenges are a completely different team. I know he's not exactly nailed. I know he's not exactly the physical presence that they probably need at times, but like the room protection, which we haven't talked a lot about, but also like the offensive, just rounding out everything that you're doing there,
Starting point is 00:57:21 I realize why this team, when you watch. this team with Porzingis had historic numbers pretty much across the board in the regular season. So if Porzingis shows up and is Porzingis, I'm having a hard time picking them in anything less than six, honestly. And that certainly ties into some of the easy offense that you were walking through was, right?
Starting point is 00:57:39 It's neither the Mavs nor the Celtics get to the rim a ton. It's really just the lobs for the Mavs and the occasional transition buckets. The Celtics, as we said, have a healthy three-point shooting diet and also get into the mid-range. So they're not getting to the rim a ton either.
Starting point is 00:57:53 but it's not about what they want to do in volume. It's about the easy stuff you take away. And if you can deny a team, through Chrisaps, Morgings, for example, six or eight points off of lobs because he's able to protect the rim. That's a huge difference in a series like this. That's a huge difference in any one of these games. I think if the Celtics can mix up their coverages and execute them at a high level, they will win.
Starting point is 00:58:18 It's not about how you guard Luca Dantzsche or Kyrie Irving. It's about all of the ways that you could. potentially do it to try to keep those guys off balance. And Luca in particular, part of the reason why we walk through, do you guard him with this guy or that guy or this guy or that guy, it can't be one option. It has to be everybody. And it has to be different guys thrown in at different times to try to just change up what he does.
Starting point is 00:58:39 I think we saw Kyle Anderson do a great job of that, for example. And who is the Celtics Kyle Anderson going to be? I think there's lots of candidates as a team with a lot of great defenders. Can they execute a variety of coverages at a really high level? and then the other thing is like, can Boston keep their heads? And if they do that, and I think we have lots of reason to think that they will based on these playoffs, they will win. They should win this series.
Starting point is 00:59:00 The Celtics should win this series. Yeah, to me the Celtics win. One, Chris Stabs has to play. That's the one, but two, like, they have to bother the Mavs offense. I just, I can't see them winning the NBA championship because they shot 53s a game. Like that, like, I don't think they can actually win that way. I think, though, but, you know, they might actually try to play that way, so whatever. But I do think if they can guard these guys and bother them in ways that at certain points we saw OKC do, if not the Mavs at all, I think that they do have a truly fantastic job of, excuse me, a shot of beating these guys.
Starting point is 00:59:41 They got to do it on defense to me. I just don't think it's going to be they jump shoot their way into the championship. All right. one last question it's almost like a sandstorm sort of thing going on now I feel in my bones yeah who wins how many games Rob I think Boston wins in six
Starting point is 01:00:09 I don't feel good about it I wouldn't feel good about any pick in this series I've waffled so many times I think I have to go with Boston I think they do have every reason to win this series on paper I do think they've played well enough I wish they would play great.
Starting point is 01:00:26 They may not, but I think that might be enough. Was. So typically Boston is like played down to their competition, which in this case means they have to play really well against the team that they're up against, right? And so that's encouraging if you're rooting for the Celtics. But come on, man. Come on, man.
Starting point is 01:00:47 The Maver's got the best player in the series by far. Okay. And I just think they're on a role right now. Like they just have it. They just have whatever that it is right now. And yeah, I think the Mavs are going to win the six games. And I do feel pretty confident about it. That's bold.
Starting point is 01:01:04 Well, you've been right a bunch this postseason. So what can go wrong? I live to take another day. That's all that matters. I respect that. You dust yourself off. You take again. I have the Celtics and 6 as well.
Starting point is 01:01:20 I have to say picking the Celtics or any team in five now feels disrespectful if you think that the series is going to be like even decently competitive because five is basically, oh, this isn't a matchup because you don't want to do four, four is too bold. So I'm going with six. Like I said, I almost talked myself into the Celtics so much. I have to like douse myself in water because like I'm completely discrediting everything that's happened in the postseason for both sides of things. So, but I think six is right. I think the Celtics win it though. And more importantly, I will be right yet again. I guess we'll see. Isn't it funny how that works, though, with like the picking in five thing? I think Minnesota is such a weird example of that where if they had lost in four all close games, the narrative around that team would be totally different, the way that they would be talking about and thinking about their season. But walking into a game five and getting walloped, changed everything about the way we think
Starting point is 01:02:14 about that series. Carl Towns isn't getting traded, like Rudy's like, I just fine. Rudy thing and all of that. Like, yeah, I hear you. All right. Well, that's our playoff preview. We'll be back on Wednesday. We have one more pod before game one.
Starting point is 01:02:29 I think we're going to do a little bit more of a big picture look at the playoffs in the finals and some of the teams we've been watching. But thank you to Isaiah Blakely. First and foremost, my Mark Ronson on this podcast for coming up with some new jams for us for the variables. So thank you to Isaiah. Thank you to Eddie Ocampo. Thank you to Ben Cruz. We'll be back on Wednesday, probably afternoonish. We'll see you then.
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