The Ringer NBA Show - NBA Over/Under With Bill Simmons—Eastern Conference (Ep. 142)

Episode Date: October 4, 2017

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons outlines the entire Eastern Conference with help from Joe House and Jason Concepcion. Topics include: the inferior Eastern Conference (6:00), the Bulls' tanking efforts (10:00), the Nets not tanking anymore (18:00), the lack of incentive for the Knicks (24:00), reasons why the Pacers will stay competitive (29:00), the awful Orlando Magic (35:00), Philly's chance to take the next step (42:00), the Miami Heat's dark-horse title chances (57:00), Jabari Parker's trade value (1:06:00), the Wizards' chance for a Boogie trade (1:11:00), the Celtics' new core (1:15:00), and Kyrie's relationship with Brad Stevens (1:18:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Yeah, Joe House loves food. Coming up, we're going to talk Western, I'm sorry, we're going to talk Eastern Conference, NBA over-unders with Joe House and Jason Concepcion. If you want to hear the West, go to the BS podcast, my podcast, the Bill Simmons podcast, where we break down the West, me, Jason House, and Kevin O'Connor.

So that's the West. This is going to be the East, Wow. There are some bad East teams as you're about to find out. Anyway, here we go. All righty. We're going to do the East. It's going to happen. We're going in order of the odds that were on Bovada. I just picked them randomly this year. I don't know if they're the correct odds, but they seem mostly correct. And we're going to go in order from lowest over-under wins to the highest. And what we're going to do is we're going to go on the record. House and I do this every year. And we also designate our locks. Yeah.

So Jason, you get to play along this year. I can't wait. Well, I like to do this a little quick moment of accountability. I didn't total them up this year. I know. And God bless the Internet. Somebody, we get a lot of tweets. People do this for us.

Yeah, God bless you, people. Right at 500 or just under 500 this year? No, on the overall. You had a good season. We had about seven disagreements last year. And most of your disagreements. Oh, you want. I think you went like 19.

I went 1911. The Southics were a big swing run for me. I'm going to do better this year. Better than 1911? No, I like this season. That's a pretty good waiting percentage. That puts money in the people's pockets 1911. I'd be humble. So before we get to the East, just for the overarching thesis of how we're trying to figure out the overrunners this year, I went through the last four years of NBA seasons.

By the way, dumb Willie is here, my dog. And I don't know whether it's going to be a good thing or bad thing for this podcast, but he is, 10 to 1 odds, he takes a shit as we talked about the necks in the corner of the office. I can't wait for that. I'm putting 100 on that. Last four years. So last year, we only had two teams over 60 wins. The East had four teams, 49 wins are above.

The West had five teams 49 or above. There were seven teams in the 41 to 43 win range. Seven. So almost 25% of the teams were basically dead middle. Mediocre middle. And then we had five teams. less than 30 wins. So then the year before, pretty similar.

The East had six, 48 wins or above. West had four 48 or above. And it's funny because in my head, I was thinking the West is dominant, much better in the East. And they've had always the dominant two teams every year. They've always had Golden State or Golden State in San Antonio, whoever.

But then after that, it's been pretty even. There were eight teams in the 40 to 44 win range two years ago, five teams less than 30. All right, I'm going to go back to the 2013-14 season. Because if we think that the West is dominant this year is the best conference and we think that the East is going to be just inferior,

then these over-underers should look a little like what happened with the East and the West. We had two teams, oh, I'm sorry, one team over 60 wins, San Antonio. This is in 2014. The West had eight teams that had 49 wins or more. more. Eight. The East only had four teams that had 48 wins or more. There are four teams in the 40 to 44 range. And then eight teams had less than 30 wins. Two teams had less than 20 wins. So I think we have to

decide now, if we think the West is going to be the dominant conference, is that going to look like that season? What do you think, Jason? I think it'll broadly look like that season. I think there's going to be a lot of parody down at the lower middle end of the east. So you're talking like the 41 range? Yeah, I just think that there's, and then down at the bad range. I think there's a lot of, you know, there's going to be a lot of incentive for teams like Chicago and Indiana to just be bad this year. So that's another thing you got to mention.

It's the last tanking year. Yeah, that's right. And we don't have to worry. I'm glad that waited a year. I think that would have been super weird if they had just decided immediately to do it. Also, shouts to the Sixers for voting for 10 years. tanking reform after getting theirs. You know?

You get yours for like three, four years and you're like, you know what? Let's change the system. I'm out. Did you see the one team that didn't vote for it? OKC. Nice. It was almost like the, oh, man, if Carmelo and George leave and we got to trade Westbrook, we need that tanking thing.

That was fascinating. But the East is bad. There's no question. The East has a bunch of bad teams. We'll tackle the Bulls first. The Bulls lost Butler, Wade, Rondo. So they added, what are we calling? What's marketing and Zick name now?

Baby Dirk? The Bulls fans are trying to get baby Dirk. Baby Dirk. That's an outrage. It's an outrage. It's insulting. Okay. Well, it's just calling marketing.

I mean, he's the, uh, where is he from? Finland. Finland. Finland. I call him. That's his first. We didn't have a TV yet. I told you.

I was, it was the truth in advertising. Well, that thank God, Brian and so. I know. I call him the finish. The finish what? Barnani. The finish Barnaini. The finish Barnais.

No, I think that's what that's right. Well, you can say whatever you want. He's got some arc on his drumshadow. You didn't ask my opinion as to whether or not this is going to be like the 13 or 14 season. And I don't think it's going to be. I don't think you're going to have eight 49 win teams in the Western Conference. I don't think so either. Okay.

So we need a different model. Anyway. I think the motto is going to be relatively similar to what we had before because if you remove Golden State and you just compare the top five in the East versus the top five in the West, pretty similar. I don't know. Is Houston or OKC better than the Celtics in Cleveland? It's an argument. If Washington was in the West, would they be the four seed? I don't know.

I agree with all this. I think it's pretty fair. I think Golden State is the differentiator. Right. That's the team. If they win 70, but you almost have to remove them from the model,

figured everybody else. So Chicago, the over, under for wins, is 22. Oof. The biggest mistake they made, out of all the terrible mistakes they made, I mean,

I'm including just trading a bunch of stuff for a campaign who's like a fifth string point card. Incredible handshakes, though. Good handshakes, but that's about it. You know who can do the handshakes? The assistant trainer. They took marketing number seven over Malik Monk, who I still like,

but more importantly, Dennis Smith, who Dallas got at 9. And Dennis Smith is just electric. And there was Steve Francis potential. I get it. I didn't personally think he was going to be the best pick ever. But then you watch these Summer League. You watch just him in the pregame warmups. He's electric.

He's going to unleash at least seven dunks this season that absolutely stop the internet for an hour. He might be the, he's a candidate to be internet hero for the NBA season. At least it's between him and Lonzo for the rookies. He's going to climb somebody and absolutely dunk them into this parking lot. Did you see the house, there's a thing where he had a third ACL? What?

He had like, he had, he tore his ACL, but he had an extra ACL. It was fine because there was another ACL in there or something. It's like, Aquaman, but for jumping. I don't know if it's true enough, but it's like urban legends. But, um, but I, I think they made a mistake because even if they had Dennis Smith, at least the Knicks fans could be like, this is cool. We have Dennis Smith. He's going to put up 25, eight, nine turnovers a night.

We're talking about the Bulls. You said the Knicks. I mean, the Bulls. Okay. That's the thing. The Bulls, the thing about the Bulls is they say that they're, you know, the last couple of years they're like, oh, we're trying to get more athletic and younger. And then they take Rondo and Wade. So you just have no idea like, we're trying to get more athletic.

Let's get Markinen, who is a stretch big. over Dennis Smith Jr. Who is that youth in athleticism that we were talking about. Well, you know, it's like you just, it's hard to know what they're doing. And then Levine, who blew out his ACL, is coming back mid-season,

but he's also a free agent. Yep. And they're going to have to pay him based on some sort of two-month sample size, which could actually affect the over-under, in my opinion. Jason has said, it's hard to know what they're doing.

And I think that's because they don't know what they're doing. Fair point. They have, though, landed at this moment by happenstance where they are perfectly incented to be the worst team in the NBA. And they have exactly the right makeup to be the worst team in the NBA. So are we ready to make our predictions and selections? No, because I have a question for T. Frazier.

What's that? He's produced the Nays podcast. The host of T-D-Up is here, our college basketball podcast. What are the ads marketing is a complete stiff? You can't rebound. That's why it could be a stiff. What's your best case? Is he better than Kelly Olenic this season?

He could be a seven-foot-tall-zipser, you know, just stay on the three-point line and hit threes. A seven-foot-tall zipser. Congratulations, Chicago. That sounds unbelievable. That sounds like the Finnish Bargiani. And the Finland, I'm sorry, Finland finished people. I don't at me, I'm just telling you.

His dad's great, though, we should say. That's great player. Well, the both have not been... He'll be a better shooter than Barney. He'll be a better shooter than Barniani. Barney was actually not even secretly a bad sugar. Barnani, 20 and 6 one season. She just point that out.

It's true. 20 and 6. The Bulls have not gone below 500. What year? Since when? What do you think? What's your answer? Oh, man.

House? You have an answer? 1980. Oh, no. 2008. Leading to the Derek Rose pick. Yeah. Last question before I do the overrunner.

Most disgruntled fan base rankings. Fanbase that hates their team the most. Bulls or Nix are my final two. Who do you have, Jason? You know, it's... As a member of one of those fan bases. The Nix is longer simmering, obviously, with a much more entrenched fan base of hatred.

But the Bulls fans have, over the last several years have really, really, really hated their team, hated the way it's run, hated the things that the people running it have said in public. Yeah. So I'm going to go to the Bulls right now, a higher ceiling. They've injured their players. There was like a weird Lue-L-Dang spinal tap thing.

Yeah. I think the Bulls hate the most. House, 22 wins over or under? Under. I'm going to slight under as well. I am also going under, three unders. I think if you're going, which team has the best chance to go under 20 wins this season in the whole league?

They are by far the leading favorite. Atlanta Hawks. Oh, man. A shockingly high, 25.5. Yeah, that's... Wins. So they lost... Paul Millsap, finally.

They lost Tim Hardaway Jr. to Jason's Knicks. They lost the... That's going to hurt. They lost the Dwight Bolivirus. And they lost Sephalosha. And they added just a bunch of bench guys and Collins,

who has 33 to 1 who are in the rookie of the year right now. John Collins. A Tate Fraser favorite. Deadman they got from San Antonio. I think I was not on the internet that day when that happened because I've always liked him.

Ilya Sova, Bill and Ellie. I mean, it's just not a good team. Their crunch time, I tried to figure out what their crunch time would be. I came up with Deadman, Collins, Torian Prince, Kent Paismore, and Dennis Schrooter? That's an awful team. How is that a starting five? Who, by the way, is probably going to be suspended for misdemeanor battery. Of his teammates.

Oh, that's right. They're best player. So. How many games do you think are suspended? I don't know. By the way, when Dennis Schroeder is your best player, I'm going under 25 and aft wins. What do you have, Hess? I have to say,

Atlanta gives me some difficulty. And the reason is because last season, in the run-up to the playoffs, there were several games where they were, they had their starting five in, and the starting five was terrible. And then they put the bench in, and the bench ran some very good teams off the effing floor.

I know what happened in my Celtics once. Didn't that have more to do with the fact that just Dwight Howard was on the bench and they were just like, We got to try hard. Twice on the bench. Millsap was on the bench too. And it was these guys. It was Baysmore and Prince and Schroeder was still on the floor for some of it.

See, House was downing his MBA knowledge and now he's pointing out games from March. I'm impressed, House. I'm still going under. I'm going to take under also because of the extra incentive for this season. But I wouldn't be surprised if they won like 26 or 27 games. Jason, anything that's under, under. Well, the glories of the Horford Hawks. Man.

The Horford-Milsap Hawks look like this. They won 50 games twice, 50 plus twice, and they made the Eastern Finals once. And that's it. You're talking to a guy who roots for a team that hasn't been to the Eastern Conference Finals in, you know, since 1978. I wasn't being sarcastic.

Yeah, I would take that. I'd take it right now. Brooklyn. Over under 27-5 wins with the caveat, they do not own their first round pick. It belongs to the Cavaliers of Cleveland. They added a bunch of dudes. I mean, they lost Brooke Lopez, who, you know,

I rooted against Brooklyn the last two years because Celtics had their pick. And Brooke Lopez probably swung eight games a year just by getting hot and doing stuff from crunch time. It was just good and really made me nervous. He's gone. They added DeAngelo Russell, Mosgolf, Alan Krabb, Demar Carroll's Dead Body, Tyler Zeller, and Jared Allen, first round pick. They added a lot of dudes. And they were a team that when Jeremy Lee. was healthy last year, actually played 500 start of the year, end of the year.

27 and a half is the over-under. And I don't know. It's a discussion. What do you think, Jason? How badly do the Nets wish they had held on to Kyle Kuzma at this point? Did they trade the rights to him? For what? In the Brooke Lopez trade.

Oh, that's right. Yeah. Ooh. That's tough to watch this guy. So they could have done like a second rounder instead. To watch this guy. absolutely blowing up for the Lakers. It's like crazy to watch the preseason because like when he gets the ball

on the perimeter, the Staples is like, ooh. I mean, they like him more than Lanzo at this point. And he's also got the Cooze. The chants, the Coos. Is it okay if I'm still a little wary of Kyle Coosma? It's okay. Can I just be a little wary? I'm just saying the guy can shoot.

For Summer League and a couple of preseason games, now he's Larry Bird. I just can be careful. I'm just going to tiptoe a little bit. A 27th picture. though. I mean, he looks like he could shoot. It's pretty good. I'm going to go, you know what? I'm going to go over. I'm going to go slight

over. I think a lot depends on DeAngelo and Lynn and what kind of chemistry they can create. But you mentioned the incentive. They don't have the incentive. They don't have the incentive to tank. I like Lavert. I like

Ronde Haulles Jefferson. I think that they will go over. Has. I'm stunned by this number, because I look at this roster. I don't see one guy on this roster that had anything that looked like, was responsible for the success of his team at any point of this person's basketball career. Like the ceiling. Jeremy Lynn?

Mosgolf played in the NBA finals as a, you know, side. He was unplayable last year. As a side piece. Yeah. Yeah. Jeremy Lynn was a cultural force and had a moment. He's been good when he's played, though. He was good last year.

He's a solid NBA player. He's a solid NBA player. When he's on the court. What's the very best basketball moment he's had? Well, I mean, there was a small thing. There was a very small thing called Linsanity that set the world to play. Right. Exactly.

On a team that went 500, they go 500 that year? Yeah, a little over five better. He saved their season. He saved their season. Congrats. Yes. How dare you? How dare you?

How you're just saying, I'm looking at 27 and a half. How is this team have more. Are you making a lot? Are you making a lot? So far under. Let's go. This is a million miles under. Okay.

I'm taking the mudder all the way down to the core of the earth. I am, uh, I'm going over. But look at you two. Good. That's fine. It's 28 wins. 28 wins. And here's the thing house.

No incentive whatsoever to tank the last two months. I don't care about the tank. I saw it last year. I was rooting for them to get the first pick for my Celtics. And the last, I think 20th. games. I think they were like 10 and 9. Last 19 games, they were like 10 and 9, something like that. And they were just playing all these teams that didn't give a shit. And these guys that you're looking at that you're like, oh my God. I also like the coach. Yeah, he's, yeah. Good news for Brooklyn too. Their first round pick is ending. Yep. This is it. Next year, they have a pick. I don't know. I like this team. I think they go 29 and 53. I think they're sling for them. I think they go. I think Russell's guy. I think Russell was in. I don't know. I think Russell was in. I think Russell was in. I think Russell was in. I think Russell was in. I think Russell was. I think. I think Russell was in the worst possible situation he ever could have been in those first two years.

You're winnings with Kobe. Then he gets the Snapchat scandal. Then last year they're trying to tank. Byron Scott is his coach. That's tough. I think Russell with a chip on his shoulder as a crunch time guy could steal some games. I don't know.

I don't think they're the third worst team in the East. The Knicks. Let's do it. They're over under is 30 and a half. Crunch time, they're going Porzingis, Hernan Gomez. Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway, Jr. And Frankie Smokes,

assuming all those guys are healthy. I would guess that's the crunch time. You could say McBuckets might be in there. There's a lot of things that need to shake out. Obviously, you know, we're on year about 15 of the Knicks point guard rotation being a It's unbelievable. A trash can on fire.

Who will be the starting point guard for this team? Who is the best point guard of the last 15 years for the Knicks? Not County Marbury. Not County Marbury? Old Jason Kidd. I was going to say, or old Chaunze Billups. Yeah, Pablo Prygione. Well, I don't, no, I mean, like, Pablo was in, listen,

Pablo was incredible. I'm just laughing at the reality of it. But this is how bad it is. And, you know, Jeremy Lynn for three weeks, that's how bad it is. I mean, it's, it's terrible. One of their best point guards is, you know, like was a quarterback in college. The irony of New York City, home of the point guard. You can't get a point card.

The 70-year history of point cards coming from New York, and then they haven't had one for this entire century, basically, other than Marbury, who was shoot first. 30 and a half. So I actually, we did a little Instagram thing this week, and I was like, I'm kind of excited to see Canter and Port Zingis together. But then as I went through all these rosters and looked at it, you have no incentive to win 31 games.

No, they should take. You are going to be just horrific defensively. Horrific. You might have the worst point guards in the league, or you're in the conversation for top three? A lot depends on Frankie nicotine being, that you can play him. And then he's been hurt in the summer league and in the preseason.

And he just pulled his groin in practice, which is concerning. I thought losing Justin Holiday kind of hurt. Yeah, he was good. Would you rather have Justin Holiday for a four million a year or Tim Hardaway Jr. for 16? Let me think about it. 21st century, one playoff series win,

12 lottery appearances house. You're feeling bad about the WIS. You've had such a more fun century than Jason has. You had Gilbert for three years. Oh, man. You had game seven last year. You had the number one pick. We've had much higher highs, but much lower lows.

I mean... Much lower? Well, you had that gun in the locker room. Yeah, that's true. I don't know. The Nix have had some lows. Yeah. It's a good argument, but I think that Nix have had more lows.

Having a team legend dragged... Yeah, Isaiah Thomas was bad. That's pretty bad. That's a lot. Eddie Curry. Eddie Curry. LaTrochelewerewell versus James Dolan. Comey Brown.

Yeah, you've had some bad ones. A devastating sexual harassment case is not great. Yeah, that wasn't good for the fan base. The, uh, Andre Blatch. It's a disaster. I don't see, first of all, if you win more than 30 games, you should be mad at your team, right? I will be mad at them. Here's the thing.

They're not smart enough to tank, which is what concerns me. I mean, I'm just going to go slide over. I'm going to go like, I think they went like 31 or 32. Okay. Because I really feel like they're not smart enough to tank. They might go 33 and 49 or something. Yeah, they got guys like Jack and Sessions who are like, you know, who are going to really try really hard. I kind of, I'm feeling that work on this.

And the reason is because I think there's like a lovability to this team. I think that New York might fall in love with this team. They've been so beaten up over the last handful of years because of the disparate sensibility of mellow on the one hand and who might be in control the team. And New York is dying to be in love with Zinger. They're dying to fall in love with Zinger.

And this whole international flavor, I think the Knicks are going to win 31 games. So I'm taking the over by half a game. Let me throw this variable into the equation. Are we sure Percinkus can play 82 games? Are we sure he can play 2,500 minutes in his season? Yeah, I think that's a little... He's had a lot of, like, little injuries already, right?

Yeah, it doesn't concern me because he hasn't had anything that's been truly bad. He's had these little nicks and, like, strains, and he's 7.3. It's true, if you look at the history of guys that big, you know, injuries is a real concern. That said, I'm not overly concerned about it. Can I be overly concerned?

Yeah, you can be concerned about it. I know the Celtics were a little concerned about it when they were examining whether they wanted to make a run in them or not. Just the history of seven foot three and above guys. Also, let me just say that. There's this narrative out there that if he does get heard, he'll be like, ah, Phil Jackson, he was right. He should have traded him.

True. Phil Jackson is not, like, that is, you can't see the future. And Phil Jackson, 100% cannot see the future. And the fact that there's no way that that played into it anyway. Well, the thing I, I think, thought you were going to touch on that I think about that angle is he wasn't that incented to hustle back and get oh I got I am I going to do a bad job of his uh of his accent I don't know I was excited I can't wait to hear I can't wait to hear it I'm going to try it

I'm gonna try it coach her my knee hurt knee hurt knee I'm up coach wow it sounds like Ivan Drago he looks like I had a drag up he sounds like it tate's disgusted Tate is ready to quit Tate is sick and I'm saying also, we've done, there are, this is the fourth team we've looked at. He's the best player that we've talked about so far. That's fair. Yeah. So, I just don't see it.

Yeah. I don't think you can win 31 games with terrible point cards. And there are some interesting ISO stats with him that I was alarmed by, like those synergy stats. Zach had him in his column yesterday about ISO post up. Like, he's just not that effective. And part of the reason, I used to watch him and go, just give poor Zs. Ingus the ball. Right.

And, you know, he had terrible point cards last year, too. And it always felt like there was more there. I just think it's a high-ceiling, low basement for this season for him. I could see him going 25 a game. I could also see him shooting like under 50% and being a little disappointing and not stand in the court. Yeah, I think the thing is they have enough shooters that he can operate one-on-one. I agree with the ISO thing.

Obviously, pick-and-pop is something he should feast on. And you look at this lineup, this roster, and you want. wonder who's going to run that with him. But I just think, yeah, they're too dumb. They're too dumb to truly tank. You know, Mike. Bad coach? Decent coach?

Who knows? I have no idea. Jury out. He had that one awesome Phoenix season. It was like, I don't know what to make of that now. They won't do 48 games in Phoenix that year. Also, Mike Beasley with the 10% of your brain speech, an instantly iconic Nick's moment of the last like 10 years.

It's iconic. It's at least going to be a fun next season. See, to me, that's what propels them to wins. Because MSG is such a great place. I think that's that lovability factor I was mentioning. That's why I'm going with you over. 31, that's all. Jason, if you could go back in time four months

and convince them to take Dennis Smith over Frankie Nicotine. But you'd never find out how Game of Thrones ends. I'm taking nicotine. I'm taking nicotine. I think nicotine is like, I can't think nicotine isn't going to be good. Like, if you look at the size and he projects to be like a really, he could be like a really modern type of player in it, like devastating and his switching offense. He's got the, he's got the wingspan. They've just got to develop him.

And obviously the injuries are concerned. That is concerning. But I got to find out how Game of Thrones ends. Come on. Would you? You guys would fire me if I didn't know how it is. Would you rather have the third dragon back or poor Zingis? I have poor Zingis.

The dragon's gone. He's gone. He's gone. He's gone. He's gone. We've got to get it. Let's keep going. We're going to take a quick break to talk about the ringer NFL show, which is just flying now.

We have GM Street with Tate Frazier, who you've heard on this podcast, and Mike Lombardi. These guys are now best friends. I could see Tate actually moving into the Lombardi house at this point. Don't rule it out. GM Street, Sunday night, recapping the games, blowing through him. It's on win. Wednesday. It's on Friday. We're going to add this little 15 minute quickie Lombardi preview of five games, 15 minutes total. If it goes over 15 minutes, you get your money back,

even though it's free. So you can listen to that. And then on Tuesdays and also Friday mornings, Robert Mays and Kevin Clark, recap in the previous weekend, looking forward to the next weekend, the ringer NFL show. It is a very, very, very good football podcast. Don't forget about this podcast, too. We're going to heat this one up as the NBA season gets close. and closer, but the Ringer NFL show, subscribe now, wherever you get your podcast. Let's go back to the overrunners. We've done four. Yeah.

Indiana is next. People are writing off Indiana. People are throwing them into the whole tanking conversation. They lost Paul George and Jeff Teague. It's kind of big. They lost CJ Miles, who I really liked. Yep. They lost Monta Ellis, who's by all accounts, one of the worst advanced metrics guys of the decade.

They gained Victor Oladipo. who has somehow become underrated because he's so overpaid. Everybody's talking about him like he's horrendous. But he's actually not. He's just overpaid. Sabonis, who's probably a stiff. Corey Joseph, who House likes. Boyan Bogdanovich, who House rooted for last year.

Darren Collison, who I think has changed teams every year since 1989. And rookie T.J. Leaf. They're over under is 31.5. Seems kind of low. What do you think, House? I agree that it seems low. but I just am still so gun-shy about Indiana. I thought Indiana, the run that they made last season in terms of the acquisitions,

the talent that they surrounded, they attempted to surround Paul George with a bunch of veterans. And, you know, they brought in Nate McMillan. They got rid of Vogel. I thought that Indiana team was set up to be kind of a mid, isn't Nate McMillan the coach? No, no, is he good? Oh, no, he's not a good coach. Because Indiana was abysmal last season They couldn't figure out

I mean, you know, Miles needs to get touches The point of Indiana is Miles Turner But are we worried that I like Miles Turner? I think he's talented. Yeah. But now it's like Miles Turner is going to be a star. We've made a leap with Miles Turner No, because that's like,

Mouse Turner and now it's his team. It's like, eh. Well, it is his team. I don't know if Miles Turner deserves a team. I like him a lot. I like him a lot. He reminds me. me of like a modern germane o'neill not a i like them too yeah not a not like your second best star

but certainly like a third best player and a really good team type of guy there's a couple things going on in indiana one is that they are not a tanking team yeah they've always been one of those teams and i think it's partly because of the owner right he doesn't want to like have a crap team he cares about the fans they've always had like that culture of basketball in indiana they've always had a weird sense of pride about competing yeah and also i i look at the actual team team. And no, it's not that bad. It's, you know, crunch time.

Miles Turner. Thad Young, who was hurt all last year, who I actually liked Thad Young. Two years ago, he was good. Boyon, who can shoot. Ola Depot, who is something. Like, he's, he's, he's an above average starter. Sure. And then, Collison, who's terrible.

But then Corey Joseph is on this team, out of Jefferson, Glenn Robinson, T.J. Leaf might be good next year. Subonis. I don't know. They're going to play hard. I think I'm going over with 31.5. I think that's too low. I'm going to go slight over, but I don't feel great about it because they have two good players.

And one of them, Miles Turner, is just super young. And they're going to feed him. He's like two years away from being ready for what they're going to be asking for him. Exactly. And they're going to feed him a lot. And then their other good player, Oladipo, is a guy who's been in like this, on this treadmill for four years. Like, he's just been the same guy for four years. Can we agree that he's been in a horrible basketball situation for his entire career?

I mean, last year, he's the Westbrook sidekick. You don't get the ball at all unless I've scored eight straight times and now I feel bad. I'm just going to throw you the ball and do something with it. Did he feel, did he even feel bad though? No. It was just, I need to take a playoff. That was a terrible situation for him. Don't stand there, don't do anything.

Occasion, I'm just going to throw you the ball and make a play. Nobody's going to succeed that way. Yeah, but it's like he's just, he's still, like, I need to see him develop some kind of real modern guard skills. Yeah, I don't think he's an all-star, but I don't think he's a bad player either. Like, I just think he's got a terrible contract. Sure. We're unanimous.

I think 32, 33. That's a reasonable number for them. Orlando, I think, is the weirdest team in the league. Every year they have the weirdest roster and you just look at it, And you go, wow, that's your roster? What the hell is going on? They added Jonathan Isaac, who was a lottery pick, everybody liked. They added my brother Jonathan Simmons.

I'll say they added Aaron and Flalo, but he hasn't been good in a few years. They didn't really lose anybody. Their crunch time, as usual, is bizarre. Vucevich. Aaron Gordon. Now finally playing point card. They finally figured that out at least. Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, and Alfred Payton, who kind of tantalized everybody.

the last 10, 12 games of the year. The bench might be better than the starters. Isaac, Hosonia, who, if he doesn't do it this year, then go to Europe. Jonathan Simmons, Bionbo, and then DJ Augustine, is terrible. Since Dwight Howard, since they traded him, 20 wins, 23 wins, 25 wins, 35 wins, 29 wins. So you've been awful for five straight years and somehow don't have anybody in your team who's a guaranteed All-Star someday, which is really discouraging. I don't even think Jonathan Isaac.

who people like and who's this do-it-all guy, I don't even think he's a guaranteed all-star. Depressing. Bad times to be a magic fan. We have a magic fan in our office, Kevin Clark, who is in our NBA Slack just saying stuff like, wow, this is the worst, I can't believe this, I hate this, I hate my team, I hate back.

Like, it's really, it's got to be one of the worst fan bases to root for, I would say, House. Yeah, I don't understand what the point of basketball in Orlando is. Why are they in Seattle? Yeah, if I was going to pick a franchise that's due for a move that needs a fresh start. Oh, this is good. Orlando's in my top three. Let's have a draft because I would take New Orleans first.

Oh, yeah. Far and away. I don't know why New Orleans has a team. Because. I like New Orleans. It's one of my favorite cities to go to. I just don't think they should have an idea thing. I don't think they're going to be a team.

And it's still Benson as the owner, the Benson family. So the stink of that mismanagement. It continues to pervade. The Nuanian should have a team and earmuffs, Tate. I'm not sure Charlotte should have a team. Wow. Earmuffs state. Oh, Tate has earmuff sign.

He's wearing headphones. Let me just say like the smoothie king center. Yeah. Like a decrepit place. Yeah. Like decaying. Why is Anthony Davis going to be there in three years? Like, it's not happening.

Benton needs to sell the team. They need sell the team. They need to sell the team. If the Hornets left tomorrow, you want to take the team from the one black owner in the NBA. No, I'd say he was going to move it. He'd still own the team. He'd still own the team.

What do you mean? He's not going to leave. He's not leaving us. He's not leaving. He's not leaving. He's not leaving. Duke, UNC State. Who else is there?

Wake Forest. You're fine. Davidson. You don't need the Hornets. Davidson. You have five teams. Oh, keep going. UNCW.

How mad would you be if they left? Would you be like, I understand? Bring the Cougars back. Carolina Cougars. It's South Carolina and North Carolina, all in one state. Well, let's all agree Seattle should have a team. over like nine of these teams. Sure, sure.

I agree. Of course. I should never laugh. It has been explaining me why Seattle doesn't have a team. It's the original team. Half of the country's money is in Seattle right now and the other half is in Silicon Valley. All right. Anyway, and I mean no disrespect to the fan base in Orlando, just to be clear.

Sure. The franchise says, it's kind of disrespect. You said they didn't deserve a team. No, no, no, no. I didn't say deserve. I would, they're my top three to leave because I don't understand what the point is. franchise has been so poorly managed, so mismanaged over the last decade since Dwight Howard left. What, you know, what are, what do people, what do you tell somebody to buy season ticket in Orlando?

I'm going. I'm going. I'm going under. I wrote under as soon as, as soon as Orlando came up. Jason, anyway, they go 34 and 48. Here's the thing. I mean, you look at this, they were like one of the worst teams in three point percentage last They can't shoot.

They cannot shoot. You look at this lineup still and you just are like, who's going to shoot? Aflalo is a mid-range guy. Vucevich is a mid-range guy. Gordon can't shoot. Ross, theoretically, theoretically, he was bad last year. Fornier is good. Alfred Payton can't shoot.

Hosonia, who I loved for five minutes. He became the new Rudy Fernandez. Yeah, I think under, you know, under. The weirdest thing about this weird. good for a season. Yeah, true. Hazani's didn't even have that. The weirdest thing about this roster is

just how they doubled down on the same types of guys. They made no effort to keep doing that. Have, like, guys who compliment each other. Like, you have Isaac and you have Aaron Gordon. And you have Biombo and Vucevic. And I just...

Also... You can't play Beambo and Vucevic together, ever. Ever. And then last year, they added a bucket of... It's bizarre. Anyway, Rob Henigan. Yeah. What a genius.

Got fired by Orlando and then hired by OKC as what was his job title, Jason? Can we just talk about those titles? They're like, those titles are like from minority report. Yeah. It's like, I got to, now I got it. Well, that I mean. Forsy. Yeah.

OKC is like a legendary weird organization. Yeah. I'm sure he'll do great. The Pistons over under 38 and a half. They broke the Internet's heart last year. Yeah, they were kind of the. They were buzzing. sexy internet team.

They were buzzing. Well, they changed some stuff. They lost one of the Morris brothers and Aaron Baines to the Celtics. They lost Caldwell Pope, who I never really totally understood the Caldwell Pope thing. They added Avery Bradley, who's very good at basketball and who I miss a great deal. Luke Kinnard, who became the workout warrior in the NBA draft, vaulted to the 12th pick, much to Tate Chagrin. Langston Galloway, Anthony Tolliver.

that this all feels like middle of the road super mediocre to me and Vegas agrees, 38 and a half wins. I'm actually going under. I don't like any team built around Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. I just can't get down with it.

And I think what happens with this, Orlando, we forgot to mention, Orlando has no incentive to try to make the playoffs. If they're smart, if they have a brain in their head, they're going to try to tank. I think the trait, like let's play out a tanking situation.

for them. If they decide pretty early on, they're not going to be competitive. Avery Bradley's a pretty nice chess piece at the trade deadline. He's making like $8.5 million a year. That's somebody you could flip in January or February, get somebody. Drummond, this feels like the last year for them if they don't make the playoffs with the pistons and drummond. Maybe that's a move they make in January, February.

I see them gutting assets making one tanking thing and trying to rebuild in the summer. I'm going under. What do you guys think? I am also going under Drummond's going to try and take jump shots this year, I think. Yeah, that's... Don't change who you are. Yeah, that's the recipe for disaster.

Reggie Jackson has been a cancerous presence on every team he's been on. That's going to continue. Legitimately a cancerous presence house. Yeah, and it's just... Cancerous. I don't disagree. Yeah, I think slight...

I'm going to... Like, I see them winning like 36, 35, 35. Me too. They're an under. This is the end of that Detroit, yeah, Andre Drummond experience. experiment. Also, it might be the end of Stan Van Gundy as a coach.

I agree with that too. He might just, he should have gone in the media. Remember not long ago when it was like, oh, the combined executive coach, that's like the new movement in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy and, you know, like, and Thibs and it's gone. It's done. It's gone. It's gone.

It's over. It's over. Doc ruined it when he just signed old guys who used to play for him five years earlier. Yeah. I mean, this is bad. So we just did seven teams. And I think I went under for five of the seven.

Now it's about to be eight because Philly's coming up here. 41 and a half. There's been so much action on the under that the over was moved to plus 145. Like they're basically begging you to take Philly at 42 wins or more. They added a lot of people. Yes. Markov Fultz, JJ Reddick, a couple foreign guys who's name of him to Mangle, Chris Humphreys, the Rev, James Baxter.

I can't do with Tate's buddy. Really didn't lose anybody. That's Gerald Henderson's dad. Crunch time? I'm looking at. Sarich, Simmons, Covington, Reddick, and T.J. McConnell. Notice who I didn't mention. Joel Embeditor, Markle Faultz,

because I don't think either of them, we're going to play Crunchtime for this team in year one. I'm not sure because I'm not sure Ambita is going to be on the floor. He said at Media Day that he's not going to play 82 games this season, which is not. He may play 38. Yeah. The thing is if he is on the floor with Sarich, Simmons, and Covington, theoretically, that's like a lockdown defensive team, in theory.

What about the tools are there? What about those three guys with Ben Simmons and JJ Redick? Yeah. I mean, the fun thing, I can't wait to watch the Sixers team. I don't mean to sound like I'm dismissing them because they have a bunch of players that I really like watching and they have the most fun lineup possibilities. You know? Like if they put, even if Mb doesn't come back anytime soon, they still have the ability to put Sarge and Simmons together with Covington and with Reddick and with Fultz if he's any good.

And now you have shooting and length and all kinds of fun stuff. Here's the concerning thing about Fultz. Dumb Willie just made a noise. It was a great sound. That was your first noise of the podcast. I don't know. He agrees. He might like Philly.

Concerning thing about Fultz, he reworked his jump shot for no apparent reason. And it looks terrible. It looks, it's like if you made an entire jump shot out of a hitching a jump shot. Yeah. Like, Lonzo Ball? No, it doesn't go across the body, but it like, it goes up really slowly and then the release is super flat. I mean, the guy shot like what, like 41% from college three. It was a good shooter.

It's just really weird to be like, you know what? I'm going to change my jump shot and not tell anybody. There's a lot of false red flags. Yeah, like the, the love of chick filet is a weird. That's a green flag. Yeah, that's not a red flag. Now you're attacking house. Green means go.

I just think as a guy with chronic round face disease, RFD, is dangerous when you're an eater like that. You know. I resent that. He seems a little immature, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. He's 19. Really high expectations. They traded up for him, which is a bad thing. He messed with his shot,

which is a bad thing. He's already got hurt in Summer League, and he was hurt last year. There's red flags. And I hope he's good because I think I want to live in a world where he's awesome. No, I really do. I'm happy with Tatum. I really am.

Like, if Fultz is great, that's great too. I love Tatum. My favorite subtext of this season is going to be if Fultz flames out. No, I don't want Foltz to flame out. Selig fans being like, Oh, yeah, yeah. That's too bad, guys. I don't want to find out.

They won't be, they won't be gracious like that. I told you. Danny! Yeah, Danny. Well, see, here's the problem if you're a Philly fan. Yeah, yeah. And you have to be careful because they're fucking maniacs and you can't say anything about them. Absolutely, they are maniacs.

They're the most tense fan base in the media that we have right now. They're just on call all the time to get mad. But the Celtics. would do that Tatum trade again in a millisecond. I love this. They'd do it in a millisecond. I'd be like, this is great. We got Jason Tatum,

and we have this awesome other high lottery pick that's great. Philly fans, I think are, if I was a Philly fan, I'd be nervous about Lonzo. I'm not even talking about the Tatum train. I'm just talking about you moved up from three to one, but you took faults over Lonzo. Because my favorite with the Celtics was that they traded down from one to three, I was actually more worried about Lonzo coming back to haunt them than Fultz because I thought he had

Faults seemed like a safer pick, which now in retrospect seems kind of funny since he changed his jump shot already. But Lanzo was the one that was like, fuck, like what if he's Steve Nash? Who is? How crazy is it to change your jump shot over the summer and not tell anybody? But let's say if Lanzo was on- He was a good shooter. Let's say if Lanzo was on Philly right now instead of Fultz. It would be more exciting.

The six-year-spins would be more fun. the Laker fans would not be as excited. He hasn't played one second of genuine professional basketball. So I'm not prepared to put the guy in the ground. This hasn't either. And this is what I hate. I really hope on the internet somebody's not just going to clip one piece of this and then put in a fucking NBA Reddit.

Like, fuck you if you do that. Listen to the whole conversation. My point is they trade it up for this guy. When you make a trade like that, you're trading up for somebody who's a sure thing. And I don't know if he's a sure thing. I would actually say Lanzo is a. Better bet to be a sure thing.

I love this. Right? I absolutely love this. Pick right now. Pick from all the information we have right now. It's October 3rd. Which guy would you rather have out of those three? I think we'd all take Lonzo.

I would take Lonzo because of the injury thing. That would be the thing for me. I just think Lonzo's going to be good. I know his shots weird, but Lonzo's going to be fucking good. My red flag with Lonzo is any time like your go-to move is a step back from 28 feet that goes across your body. That might be a problem. That's not great. said, his vision is truly special.

Like, it's special. He is a rocker changing talent. But I will say this. I think Tatum is the safest bet of the three. I love this. I think Tatum, I just look at him, I'm like, I know what that guy is. That guy's...

Just carry your mom's luggage. That guy's chance to be Paul Pierce. Safest bet your life, who would you bet on? Of those three? Just to be a very good basketball player. Lonzo. It's not even close. I think Lanzo.

Jason. got a little too much Brandon Inger made me so you can suck it. Wow. Wow. I don't appreciate that I just tell you. Do kids. Tate? Yeah. Has your opinion changed on Faults? On Faults? In the last four months? Never. Love it. Not not ever. You were impressed by his nine-win season in Washington. I thought Dennis Smith was the best point guard in the draft. I thought he should have on number one. He did. He did always say that. I have a friend that works for the Sixers who is like, and they are just shooting this season into their van. They're ready. They're like 48 wins, 45 wins, 48 wins.

I have a friend that works for the Sixers. And as soon as the Fultz traded. He's shooting something. He's definitely shooting something. He was like, and this was before they got Reddick, which is a great pickup for them. That's like a guy they need. I don't see that. But that said, I mean, there's a high ceiling.

Obviously, Fultz and Simmons haven't played a second. Embed is not going to play the whole season. I don't think Fultz is going to help them this year that much. I think he might help them like 18 minutes ago. That was my argument. I think anytime you see a team win, like have a 10-win improvement or greater, that's just historically a very rare thing to happen. What did they win 28?

They win 28 games last season. Willie's with the Philly conversation is agitated dumb Willie. Yeah. So, yeah. And over this, so 41 wins, that would, they won 28 last season. That's a historically rare. That's a historically rare. Well, what do we think of Ben Simmons?

Because he's the wild card. If they're going to get to 42 wins, it's going to be because. he's really good right away. And him and Sarge together are really good. And McConnell and Redick together are really good. And that's the thing with this team is, if Fultz is just coming off the bench as like the leader of their second unit,

that actually might be better for this over, if you bet the over, versus him like trying to make his mistakes and learn how to run a team. He's not going to be ready to do that yet. So yeah, Simmons is the point guard is going to be interesting. They're going to play up tempo.

I think the thing... Are we sure he's going to stay the point guard then? I don't, I'm not sure. And the other thing is like his shot is truly terrible. Yeah. So it's like, you know, Brett Brown has already talked about, like, having to adjust lineups when he's out there. Because guys are just going to sag 15 feet off of them.

You have to. Kevin O'Connor has that crazy thing about, like, that crazy theory about the- switch hands, which I love. And Bid, Faults, and Simmons together, will they play 150 games combined? No. Jason? No. 125?

Yes. Between 125 and 150. That's not good for the over. Fultz had a couple moments before he got hurt in the summer league where you could see the ceiling. You just be like, oh, okay. Like when Durant tweeted about it, has he pull-up Jimbo.

Yeah. Like that was an A list like, wow, I get it now. I see why this kid could be special. When you see him handling in the pick and roll, it can really operate. Yeah, I don't want to sound like I'm downing faults. there's some things that have concerned me the last few months. And I went from thinking like in April May,

I was like, this guy's a sure thing. And then I don't know. They reworked his jump shot for no apparent reasons. I worried about him a little bit. All right, Charlotte. Oh, yeah, we have to pick. Oh, well, we're all going on. I'm going under.

I'm going to go slight under. Yeah. I'm prepared to call this a lock, by the way. I'm nominating it as a lock. I'm prepared to call it a lock. There's too many guys who haven't played one second in professional basketball. Sixers fans are now enraged, by the way. This guy cork mats?

Cork mats? Cork mats? People like this dude. Cork mats. Cork mats? Cork mats. Cork mats. People like them.

Charlotte, 42 and a half. There's been some action on it. It's minus 130. They are 500 to 1 to win the title. They are 6 to 1 to win the southeast. They have added Dwight Howard, Malik Monk. Michael Carter Williams, giving them two hyphen guys, which I didn't even know it was legal.

They have Carter Williams and Kid Gilchrest. They lost basically nothing. Bellinelli was a good ninth man. They lost the terrible Plumley. Crunch time is interesting. I actually was looking at their roster trying to figure out what they would do at Crunch Time. Ideally, when everyone's healthy.

They go Dwight Howard, Kaminsky, Batum, Monk, and Kemba. Kind of like it. I do like it. Off the bench, Cody Zeller, who was good last year when he played, Kid Gilchrest, who basically lost whole year.

Jeremy Lamb and Marvel Williams is dead body. Oh, come on. Yeah. He still, I mean, if he could shoot three, he just needs to shoot 38% and that, that's fine. No, that's, that's, you know, he's been better than that before. I have a proclamation. I've looked at this from every angle. Proclamation.

Yeah. I think this is the fourth best team in the East. Wow. I do. I like the overall. I think they can get to 47, 48. Yeah. I do too.

I'm taking the over. And I don't even think they need that much from Dwight Howard. I mean, he can play 20 minutes a game. They'd be fine. I feel like we've been saying this now for three years. If Dwight Howard only just did this, instead of ruined teams. He could be a ninth man who comes off the bench for them and just block shots and does a couple alley-ups and that's it. Like, that's still better than Aaron Baines.

I agree with that. I mean, he might be a cancer. I guess that would be the red flag with him. He might be. Well, the rehabilitation tour. When I read the Lee Jenkins piece, no that. My favorite thing about that in the last, so Lee writes this rehabilitation,

great rehab piece on Dwight. Lee Jenkins is going to write my rehabilitation piece in two years. I'm just, I'm claiming him now. The first paragraph is like how Dwight, when he was in Atlanta playing for the Hawks, every few weeks he'd drive to his childhood home. Yeah. No, he didn't.

He did not drive to his childhood home and like look at it every three weeks. That piece needed a lot more quotes from people who've played or coached Dwight Howard and were like, this guy is, I will never recover from that period of my life. And then number two. Who's missing like four of those quotes? I'm sorry, go ahead.

Number two, like a week after that as the whole Trump sports thing is burbling, you know, with Steph Curry saying they're not going to the White House, they asked Dwight about it. And Dwight, would you go to the White House? And Dwight goes, I would go to the Dwight House. Burr, br-brough. It's like, it's just immediately destroying any goodwill engendered by the Lee Jenkins. What could Michael Jordan?

But what could Michael Jordan do to either ruin him mentally or make him more of a man? But it'll be one or the other. It will be like, hey, Dwight, want to play poker at my house tonight? And then he'll just eviscerate him for five hours. And Dwight will either recover or he'll never be seen again. He'll have to get in his car. Dwight, you have to wear my jeans. I like this team.

I think they have good players. I mean, it's not an accident because they've been picking the lottery for 100 years. but I like the team. I think they can shoot. They can throw different lineups. They can rebound. They can play defense. They have eight professional basketball players.

But two can guard people. That's a good point. That's a great way to put it. Forty-half seems crazy low. Take Frazier. Seattle Hornets fan. Wow. 42 and a half is too low, right? You're insulted by that.

No, I'm not insulted. They won 36 last year. But if Monk buys in to being the sixth man in the year coming off the bench like Lou Williams, then I'm all in. But apparently he wants to start. And he's not going to start over, but two him or Kit Gilchrist. You have some red flags with Monk.

We've had some red flags since the lottery. Tate hasn't like Monk's reaction to any of the show that stuff. We're number one. When you play for the Hornets, you wear Jordans. He's like, I'm wearing Nikes. I don't like that. Jordan's are kind of trash right now. Can we be?

Yeah, but it's not. Like Nike is LeBron. Jordan is Jordan. To be fair, name a good Jordan out right now. Let Tate speak. He's got some stuff. He's got some stuff to work for. Dwayne Bacon, I think, could be better than

Monk. So like why do we have to give all the credit to Monk? He needs to earn it. Okay. And then when you look at that team overall, like they're a veteran team. Kimba's the leader and Monk wants to be the guy. He wants to be like, I'm the franchise. You left that one key part. What's that? He has repeatedly mentioned how disappointed he was that the Knicks didn't take. Of course. Yes. He brings it up in every interview. Which is weird. He's like, you know, that really lit a fire under me. I still can't believe they didn't take me. It's like, get over it, dude. You're playing for Michael Jordan's basketball team. I can't wait for the Knicks to sign him at age 34.

The other thing I like... Yes, exactly. The other thing I like about this team that I want to mention, we're all going over, right? Yeah. This is almost definitely I'm making a lock.

I also like them at 6 to 1 to win the southeast. That would have to mean they would have a better record than Miami or Washington. Here's the Washington part. You have no bench. And if you have a B-O injury

or a wall injury, you're not winning that division, right? Can we agree that? It just hurts my fear. You need like 155 games from them to win that division. 150? 50 combined.

No, no, yeah. At least minimum 150. Like if Bill has a stress fracture and is whatever, and he's out for 30 games, there's no way you can get to 50 wins. I could just house the pain. I'm sorry, house. I'm just going to, 50 wins is not the threshold because they haven't had 50 wins since 1978.

It's been 40 years since they had 50 wins. Well, but I think on paper you're a 50 win team this year. You're a won away last year. We'll see. Yeah. You're better this year. I don't know. Because what happened to Bill in the playoffs,

we're going to get to Washington's second, but what happened to Bill in the playoffs was, I think, a legit kind of moment for him. Like, he was unstoppable. He was great in Game 7. So anyway, the one piece I mentioned with Charlotte, they have the pieces for a good trade, too. Like, if they want to do a three-for-one

or a two-for-one plus their pick, or even if they wanted to use mock and something else, like whatever they do, there's a chance that they could even be a little better. Use the Dwight Howard contract, which aspires next year with some other stuff. Who knows? But that's a team to me that looks like a trade team. Let's take one quick break here to talk about the Ringer podcast network, which has now swelled into 17 or 18 podcasts.

If you like the NBA, we get the Ringer NBA show. If you care about the baseball playoffs, the Ringer MLB show. If you love the NFL, we talked about the Ringer NFL show earlier. Food, House of Carbs. Gambling, we got Cousin Sal's against all odds. If you love pop culture, I would encourage you to try the Channel 33 podcast, which also, that one has the big picture with Sean Fantasy, where he interviews movie directors. It also has Jam Session with Juliet Limit and Amanda Dobbins, where they break down all the celebrity stuff that happens during the week. Achievement-oriented, our video game podcast, the masked man, our wrestling podcast.

If you go on our page, if you go on the ringer.com and click on the podcast page, you'll find The Watch with Andy Greenwald and Chris Ryan. You'll find binge mode where we covered 67 Game of Thrones episodes. You'll find a whole bunch of stuff. It's all in there. The Ringer Podcast Network, one of the best podcast networks that anybody has. We're very proud of it. Oh, and mine too, the Bill Simmons podcast. So check all of those out.

The Ringer podcast network. Back to Overenders with House and Jason. All right. Miami, staying in the Southeast, plus 350 to win the Southeast. 101 to win the title. 43 and a half over And They have added Bam Atabio

Who Tate loved Kelly Olinick, who I love And House Hates They didn't really lose anybody Yeah I really like Miami's Crunch Time 5 Just from

As a basketball fan Not as like And I'm winning the title Hassan Whiteside The Strongest Man Alive James Johnson Just as I'm back Winslow Dionne Wader

D. Dionne. Goren Drogich. That's a really fun starting five or crunch time five, whatever that ends up being. Olinick, Magruder, Out of Bio, Tyler Johnson, Richardson, off the bench. Deep 10-man team. Solid team. A threat to the whiz.

Yeah. What do you think, Jason? I'm going to go over. I believe that this team is the team that finished the season 30 and 11 and shot a bunch of threes with Dionne Waiters. with Dionne Waiters Island looking like the next vacation destination for like the NBA elite. I like this team. I'm going to go over. Pass.

They only have to win 44 games, so that's 44 and 38. And the blistering pace that they said at the end of the last season. Here's the big unknown with them. Can they play with Justice Winslow? Because they immediately got hot when he got. Not hurt. Yeah. So why do we think that happened?

Well, he's a terrible shooter. Yeah. Wayne Ellington came in and made threes. And made three. They shot like three more threes a game as soon as Winslow went out. If I'm just as Winslow, I spent my whole summer shooting corner threes. Sure. I really hope he did that.

It's like, hey, how are you working on your game? I stand in the corner and shoot three-pointers for five hours as people pass them. I really hope that's what he did because he's such a good athlete. That was like kind of the missing last piece for him. him. I did all my win totals before looking at the over-unders. I had them at 44. It seems like 43-44 is right there. I'm going to go slight over for this reason. I also think there's a trade. That's another team with a trade to me. Totally agree with that. They could flip. Like Winslow to me is a chess piece. Huge chess piece. That's like, hey, we want to get better right now. Here's Justice

Winslow. Give us whatever back. So, all right. Well, we're agreeing. too much in this pot. There's only one that we've disagreed on. Can we do a shout out to Kelly Olinick who ruined house is spring? Suck a fat one. There's Kelly, Kelly, Kelly,

remember that house? He's a new thing, Robert. Is he a dirty? Do you feel that he's dirty or is he just clumsy? I think he's more clumsy than dirty. He's 100% dirty. He's consecutive years. He's a bum.

You don't like white people has. The Milwaukee Bucks, 600 plus 600 to win the central, 66 to 1 to win the title. 47.5. Over, under. They added DJ Wilson and Gerald Green. They lost Michael Beasley. Pretty much the same team.

Jabari Parker out for the first half of the year. I have their crunch time when Jabari comes back as Thonmaker, Jabari, Janus, Chris Middleton, Malcolm Brognan. That's pretty good. Bench, Henson, Monroe, Delvedova, Tony Snow. No, Toledevich. They have not won 50 games since 2001. I'm going to shock you guys. I'm going under.

That is not shocking because I am joining you on the unders. Okay. There's a couple reasons. I don't think their team's better than it was last year. I don't think they have a very good bench. I think they're getting a little too much buzz as like, watch out for, like, people, it's almost like what happened with the Raiders this year. People are just kind of throwing them in to these conversations.

I don't know, are they better than Charlotte? Janice was an MVP candidate last year. I think he would have to go up another level for them to get 48. If that jumper is wet this season, maybe. The league got better. Yeah. The bucks didn't get better.

And I don't know. I think they're under. I have them in like the 44 to 45 range, not 48. I am very appreciative of the job that Jason Kidd did in turning Malcolm Brogden into the rookie of the year. but it is astonishing to me that they're going to go into this season with the backcourt that they have.

It's a subpar backcourt. They spent so much money they couldn't go into free agency and do anything. Once the cap went backwards on them, they were kind of screwed. They're locked into Monroe. The contract that really hurt them,

well, two of them, the Delvedova and the Toledovich. I liked the Toledovich contract. I thought that was going to help them and did not. And Delvedova for 10 million a year was just a complete misfire because you can't play him. Can't play him.

So, And then they're playing. Greg Monroe has an expiring, which I think could be a potential trade piece for them. Willie. Dumb Willie. Come here, Dumb Willie. I don't see it.

I'm going under. And I think if I had to bet Charlotte versus Milwaukee and you're giving me four wins with Charlotte, I think that's crazy. I would much rather have Charlotte. I'm going to disagree only because we're agreeing too much. I also think it's an under. but here's my argument.

I think if Mocker is playable as he looked in the playoffs. Are we calling him Mocker or Maker? Mocker is the correct pronunciation. I think it's Mekir. Macer. But we're going to say Maker, Mocker, Mekir, who cares? Maker Mocker. I think if Maker Mocker McCur is playable as he was in the Raptor series last season,

playoff series. He looked good. You had that to Giannis. and Snell, and that's just like a lot of length. And if they can be a lockdown defensive team, then just blacks out the sun with that kind of mobility and length, and you got Henson 2, you know, they could win not, I mean, it's 48 is tough.

48 is too high. 48 is too. All right, I'm going under again. Forget I'm going. I'm going under and I'm picking them for the what's wrong with the Bucks piece on ESPN.com or wherever. or the ringer. How about the ringer?

Yeah, we could write that. It's a good, like early December. The bucks are seven and ten. What's wrong with the bucks? I could see that one coming. All right. What about Jabari trade?

Like, isn't that looming right now? If he has another thing happen again, I mean, you can't keep buying in every single year. And they drafted this guy Sterling Brown out of SMU. Hearing a lot of good things about him. Two injuries on the same knee in like, what, 18 months or something? Like, that's bad.

And he's always had like the little bit of a weight issue. Yeah. You never know. I thought Jabari. really hit a nice point December, January last year before he got hurt. Yeah. I would trade for him if I was like the Nets. Sure.

You know, the Bucks are a candidate for a panic trade with Jabari. Because if they feel like this season's slipping away, they have a weird ownership situation going where the owners are about to change hands and go from the one guy to the other guy, neither of them like each other. I don't like, I just have a bad juju from that team. Toronto's at 48 and a half wins. They are plus 550 to win. the Atlantic, 75 to win the title.

They lost some dudes. They lost Patrick Patterson. They lost PJ Tucker. They lost Tamara Carroll, who was terrible. And Corey Joseph, who was a good backup point guard, they added C.J. Mile, and they added in a nubi. Ananubi? Ananobi.

Ananobi? House, what is it? No, don't edit that. I want to hear of a house. Say it. Anonobi? Ananobi. Maca.

Maca. Maker. Maker Macon McCur. Crunch time. They're going, Yonah, Sabi. C.J. Miles, de Rose, and Larry. Perfectly fine, competent, professional playoff team. I don't like their bench as much.

There's a lot riding on Norman Powell all of a sudden, who the internet likes. But 40 and a half seems high. Now it's like everybody's got to stay healthy to get 40 and a half. I'm going to go over. I think they get 49. It's essentially the same team.

I think more than injury, I'd be concerned of just like the, just the weird. of this team going out year after year and the same exact thing happening. They're really, you know, solid regular season team. And then the playoffs roll around and everybody knows exactly what they do. You know, it's like DeRosen can't shoot threes. Lowry is going to try too hard.

Larry just got paid, by the way. Yeah. That makes me a tiny bit nervous. The guy, the up and down weight guys, finally getting the big contract makes me, is it okay if I can I be 10% nervous about that? Kyle Larry's like, Kyle, we're going out for chicken parm. It's 1 a.m.

I shouldn't. And then he goes out. So I'm with network. I'm taking the over as well. I think 49 is a good target number for them. Simmons under. I have them like 46, 47. I think they'll be right around there

and throwing one injury and they're under. I just think the T-DOT propels them to some wins too. Washington, 48 wins. You lost Bogdanovich. You drove Brandon Jennings to the airport, make sure he left. Brandon's he got it to get on the plane? There were a lot of guys we drove the airport last year. Andrew Nicholson we drove to the airport.

Who's a Michigan kid who belongs in the deal? Treyberg. Trey Burke, drove him to the airport. Actually took him to the train station. He paid for the twice. No, not paying for that flight. They added, well, this is all you added. Tim Frazier and Jody Vicks.

Congratulations. Well, you know, It was a run-it-back team, but you touched on this earlier. It's very concerning the pressure that it puts on Beal and Wall to stay healthy the whole season. And there isn't a great track record of those two guys. Well, especially Beal. The whole season. And the other part of this that is, you know, concerning is you need Otto Porter to play at this exact same level that he played at last season.

He's got to be at that level or better. And you need the development of Kelly Ubre to continue on the high upward trajectory. We like him. I like the way of it. And I like Porter too. He's likable. And the money, you know, I understand the idea behind it and why they were committed to running it back. I hope that it's irrelevant to his motivation and irrelevant to his focus.

I'm in on auto. I think he plays hard. I was impressed by him in the playoffs. I liked how he played. Well, he's kind of an every other game guy. You're going over under? I think they're going to win 48 games. I mean, that's, what is that?

That's a push. I'm taking a push. No, you can't do that. I think they're going to win 48 games. You're literally picking a push? Why can't I do it? It's my team. Pick a push.

That's the first time in 10 years you've ever picked a push. Jason? I'm going to go, I think they win 49 games. Yeah. I'm also going Slade over. I also think they have a chance to. win 42 games if one of those guys gets hurt. You're right.

I'm betting on the one, them getting to 150 while on bill. And I also think, put your pecker in your pants for this one. Is your zipper up all the way? I'm talking about Washington. Of course it's up. I think there's some boogie potter trade potential. Oh, no.

Put that thing away. Put that thing. You know this is the thing that that makes the most. sense that's out there right now for the for the pelicans. And in true wizards fashion, you'll throw in two unprotected picks like 10 years from now. I'll put it in 2028

2034. I'll throw out two unprotected picks and my unprotected penis. Hold on. Extremely Bill Simmons' voice. Are we sure that Boogie is good? Oh! Him and John Wall will be good.

Him and John Wall will be. Bill Wall and Boogie is getting downtown and child. Look at my T-O-Wall. shirt today. I can't dress for Boogie. Wall and Boogie together is really like the best case scenario for Boogie going forward.

If they can end up somehow with Wal, Bill, and Boogie, figure out the rest. If that's the rest of your decade, that's where you want to be, right? That's where you want to be. I'm all in. Is Jason Smith starting? No. On the ESPN

depth chart he was, but I wasn't behind that. No, Morris is starting. Start it. You know why Smith starting because Morris is hurt. He's probably not going to play. Yeah, yeah. To start the season, Smith will be starting.

A few weeks in November. I think it's an over. I wouldn't bet it. I certainly would make it a lot. Cleveland, 53 and a half. A lot of action on the over for this. Minus 145. There are 9 to 2 to win the title. They're heavy favorites to win the division.

They lost Kyrie Irving, one of the best 10 players in the league. I'm saying it. Ten? They added Isaiah Thomas, who is currently in a full body cast. Right. beloved Boston player, hopefully he'll be back January February, Jay Crowder,

Dwayne Wade, Derek Rose. I'm not counting you, Jeff Green. You don't get to be in that sentence. And 53 and a half seems right around where you'd think they would be, but yet these LeBron teams, the last four or five years, they have always been in the low to mid-50s

for whatever reason. There's more rest this year. They spread the schedule out. I think the team's going to be motivated. I like the Wade LeBron energy together. I'm going slight over. I see them around 55. I think 53 and a half is too low.

House? I totally agree. That's exactly the, that's a, we're going to agree too much on this thing. That's fine. We're smart people. Something like that. That's the right number.

So 54 is a good number. And I too, I think now the line's gone all the way down from those 57, 58 numbers that we were seeing in the last couple years, because they've been taken off some regular seasons, including last regular seasons. And our thing with this was... The thing's not doing that. Our thing with this was always one of these years

LeBron's going to get hurt. Clearly he's never getting hurt. He's just bionic. So the question is, if you're going under, that means you're basically saying Cleveland's going to lose 30 times this season. They're going to lose 30 games. I don't see it. There's too many shitty teams in the league.

30 games. Plus, like, I like that they finally agreed. Kevin Love is our center. Tristan Thompson, you're coming off the bench. I agree with that. They have a better small ball lineup than I think they used to have. You can play Crowder at the four with LeBron. And you figure Isaiah, I think he's going to be back by January.

I'm going to actually go slight under. Because of Isaiah? Because if you look at this, the point guard lineup, it's Isaiah who we don't know how bad the hip is. No one knows. Derek Rose, who is bad. Jose Calderon. Well, so here's the thing. Right, LeBron's going to be the point guard.

I don't think they even play a point guard. I actually think Wade will be in that, what we get in those minutes. How many minutes a game do you think Wade will play? Over the 30-ish, 32. Yeah, like 28, right? So basically they're always going to have LeBron, Wade,

Crowder, Love, Jefferson, Corver, J.R., Tristan Thompson. Like, I don't think they play a point I don't think Rose is good enough to crack that eight. I don't think about this team in terms of what they're capable of offensively and what the rotation is. They need to find a defensive identity. And that's the huge question mark to me.

That was the big vulnerability they had all the way through the regular season. So what if it's LeBron Wade, Tristan Thompson, Crowder, and Jefferson trying to get stops? It's not bad. It's not bad. Crowder is such an improvement defensively. Just the commitment to. What's funny is he's somehow become overrated defensively, but he's still better than a lot of the people that have. He knows what to do.

He's an above average defender. He's not, he's not incredible. I just think this is, I mean, the oldest team in the league. And they've, you know, Kyrie Irving, whatever you want to say about the. Jason, be careful. Listen, I'm just saying he was an important part of their chemistry. Oh, that was nice. They had, they had a system with him, which was grind it out.

LeBron is your point forward. and then you get to the last two minutes of a game and Kyrie Irving takes over. Who's going to, who does that now? I mean, Wade is not that guy. Yes, you can still have Wade cutting off of LeBron. Derek Rose theoretically can do that too. I just, I think there's too many guys that are like,

like Jeff Green, you know, is on this team. No, Jeff Green's not playing for this thing. I'm just saying, like Kyle Corver is old. Tate, what do you have? What? 53 and a half wins? I think they're going to go over. Yeah, it's it.

55, 56 is reasonable. So how does it? Simmons are a slight over, Jason's slight under. And the east is so bad. The east is really bad. This could be six tanking teams. Southics are 55 and a half. There's been more action on the under than the over for that.

8 to 1 to win the title. Minus 400 to win the Atlantic. It's incredible what they added. Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jason Tatum, Marcus Morris, Aaron Baines, who my dad called me today, had this unbelievable phone call. My dad who watched the entire preseason game He's like, I'm going to make a prediction.

Say this on your podcast. Daniel Thies is going to be starting for this team. Like, okay, Dad. And then he loved Aaron Baines. We've never had to go like Baines. Gets rebounds. But they lost some dudes. They lost Avery Bradley.

They lost Isaiah Thomas, who averaged almost 30 a game last year. They lost Jay Crowder. I like this team. I think offensively there's so much more potent. The over seems high, though. 55 and a half when you have a whole bunch of new guys. Yeah.

here's why i don't know if i can go over on this guys i like you i like this this pessimism this it's not pessimism it's reverse jinks how many times have we seen when a when a team completely changes their roster and adds a bunch of new guys that haven't played together before that it takes 20 games to kind of get used to each other you know who might be good at at um helping that helping figure that out a guy with the background in college where there's a constant kind of shuffle of new talent that comes in every couple years maybe a guy I like Brad Stevens. It could be in the right position to...

Well, I'm with you on that, but the team was pretty good last year and they only won 50 games. So they're basically saying this team six wins better. Vegas is saying that. They won 53 years. Well, yeah, 53. Yeah, so three games better. I think there are three games better. I'm taking the over on the Boston Celtics.

I'm going to take the slight over as well. I think if there's a question, the question is, as you said, the chemistry issue with all the new guys. and also, has Brad Stevens ever really coached like a superstar guy? I'm not saying he can't. Yeah, just Hayward, right? Like, crazy Kyrie? Yeah, but I'm, so I'm like, this is a new, this is a new challenge for him, dealing with a guy of the personality and the, and the stature of Kyrie.

I will say defensively, not that this team was lights out last year. Defensively this year, I'm really interested to see, like, who is there five guys that can get stops? Sure, I agree with that. Avery Bradley guarded every good guard in the league. I don't know. So that puts a lot of pressure on Marcus Smart. Now, Marcus Smart is the key to this because he lost somewhere between 15 and 30 pounds,

depending on who you talk to, was not in shape. So they have to go 56 and 26. Yeah, I think they do it. Me too. In the east, sure. In the east. They're going to feast on all of those Atlanta, Brooklyn, Indiana, And they can blitz you with athletes now, too.

All right. You talked me into it. I don't want to go under it. He never had no intention. He had no intention to do. He wanted to make us. I wanted you got us to do for me. Of course, of course he did.

He's so excited. We're going to recap our beds in his pants. Here's what we have. Chicago, 22 wins. We all went under. Atlanta, 25 and a half wins. We all went under. Brooklyn.

27-5 wins, Bill and Jason went over, house went under. Nix, 30-and-a-half, Bill under, house over, Jason over, Indiana, 31-5, we all went over. Orlando, 33 and a half, we all went under. Detroit, 38 and a half, all went under. Philly, 41-5, you went under on that, right? I did go under on that. All of us went under. Charlotte, 42 and a half, we all went over.

Miami 43 and a half We all went over We agreed on everything Milwaukee 47 and a half All under Toronto

48 and a half Jason and house over Bill under Washington 48 Jason and I went over House went for a push To win exactly

48 games For host to be right Cleveland 53 and a half Over for Bill and House Under for Jason In Boston 55 and a half We all went over.

What are your locks house? I like Charlotte as a lock. I like Philly as a lock. And I like Cleveland as a lock. Those are my three. Cleveland as a lock. I do. Okay.

Jason, what do you have? I like Atlanta as a lock. Atlanta Under. Yeah, I like Milwaukee as a lock. And I like Charlotte as a lock as well. Wow. Okay. I have Philly Under as a lock.

I have Charlotte over as a lot. Congratulations, Tate. I feel like you guys are all jinxing me right now. There's no reason to jinxed it. I mean, Charlotte's in the same conference as the WIS. You just think they're decent. And I'm going Milwaukee under as my third luck. I like that.

So there you go. I will say Dwight Howard airballed his first free throw this season. I saw it, not only did the airball, but it went to the right. He missed it and it somehow went under the backboard, but he still missed it.