The Ringer NBA Show - Rookie-Scale Candidates and Four Pressing Offseason Questions With Kevin O'Connor (Ep. 137)

Episode Date: September 12, 2017

The Ringer's Chris Vernon and Kevin O'Connor discuss the most interesting rookie-scale candidates heading into the 2017-18 season (7:00), Joel Embiid's future in Philly (16:00), Rodney Hood's chance to shine in Utah (27:00), the Warriors' repeat potential (36:00), Pat Beverley in Los Angeles (54:00), and Hoodie Melo in an actual NBA game (1:01:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Ringer NBA show. We've had some time off, but we are back now getting ready for the NBA season. Training camps and media days are just about two weeks away. I'm Chris Vernon, joining me as he does every Tuesday and will every Tuesday throughout this upcoming NBA season is Kevin O'Connor, aka Kevin Obama. Kevin. Chris, I missed your nicknames for me. I missed you, Chris. How are you doing?

you've missed me so badly haven't you kevin i i know i really miss talking with you every tuesday it just didn't feel right i mean we were getting into the habit of doing this i'm excited dude i'm i'm so hyped for the season to get started we're getting close days are flying by i am too it it made me feel really good right obviously when we did the stuff in las vegas uh we got a ton of feedback when when we revealed the people that we had never met each other in person prior to that um we got a lot of feedback on that and then over the course of the last couple of weeks. I know both of us have been sent a lot

of messages asking when the show will be back. So the show is back and we'll be back for the foreseeable future. Now, that were just two weeks away from the NBA season. We took August off and then to the middle of September, but now we are back ready to go.

Oh, big shout out to our listeners in Ireland from Galway, no less. You saw that the other day on Twitter. We had people from like all over the globe. I've had people from Brazil. I'm people from Ireland.

And you do kind of forget that like in the podcast world, people can download it from wherever and that they, like they really, like it's not like the NFL,

like college football and all that stuff has started all over the rest of the time. I mean, the NBA has become a 12-month sport for sure. In fact, I was just reading Simmons's column

about the NFL and kind of like that change where the NFL used to be that and now it's the NBA now. But it certainly is a 12-month sport. and then even overseas, you got people that have this insatiable desire for any kind of NBA talk. So I'm glad we're back and thank you to all the people that at least missed us because we missed each other greatly over the course of the last month.

Yes. 12 months for international game. NBA, NBA is really living its best life right now. It really is less than two weeks away from the media days and training camps opening. And so The Ringer is going to have a boatload of content leading up to it. You have put out an article today, and there's going to be a lot looking ahead to intriguing topics of the upcoming season. Your article today is about the most interesting rookie scale extension candidates. And the subheading is the top tier of the 2014 rookie class is in line for pay raises. and then you chronicled four players and their teams that have big decisions to make before the October 16th deadline.

So we are talking, as we are recording this today, it is September 12th. We're talking a little over a month away. And so this will be a pressing issue immediately for teams to decide on. Tell me about those four guys and why they stood out to you the most about the decisions teams are going to have to make. So, Chris, there are 21 eligible players, 21. And the big names, everybody knows, Andrew Wiggins and Joelle and B, there's already been some talk in the public sphere about will those guys get extensions. But I think as you look down on the list, there's some really interesting names. And the four that really stick out to me are Gary Harris from the Nuggets, Marcus Smart from the Celtics, Jabari Parker from the Bucks, and Clint Capella from the Rockets.

And they all are interesting for kind of different reasons. for Parker obviously he's coming off his second torn ACL and there was the report that his agent was looking for a max contract which seems outrageous. However, if you consider the fact that Jabari Parker, if he had continued his, if he continues on the same trajectory he was on, he probably could be worth the max. If you look at a guy like Clint Capella, you think about how important he is to the Houston Rockets, but then you see what the type of money big men are getting. You look at Stephen Adams one year ago, got a huge four-year, $100 million contract, and yet Nerlands Noel doesn't even get a deal this summer. I mean, there are so many tough questions that teams and players and agency to ask each other before this deadline that I'm going to be fascinated to see who gets money and who doesn't.

Because if you look at the guys who got signed one year ago, some of those deals look like overpays now. Stephen Adams, as good as he is, or Gorgie Jang, as good as he is too. those guys probably wouldn't have gotten that money on the open market. All right, let's start with those four. Wiggins is clearly the best of, but he's already reportedly turned down deals, right? I mean, I think that deal's going to get done.

I think Wiggins will get signed before the season. I think from what I've heard, it's just a matter of getting his agency kind of all sorted out. Once that's figured out, then the deal can be signed. Okay, I am of the opinion when you have a player like Wiggins. you're going to have to wonder what the fit's going to be like with Jimmy Butler and with Carl Anthony Towns. And, you know, again, what the fit's going to be like and how it's all going to work out if those are the best pieces. But when you have a player that's that talented, you just sign him and then you figure it out because guys like that can always be moved.

If you come to the point where you need to move them, you can. And so I would, you know, somebody like him, I'd pay, right? That one to me is a no-brainer on the Wiggins front. The other three. He's the one no-brainer for sure. Yeah. The other three, the Parker thing is interesting because how much do you want to put into it when you've got the knee injuries?

When healthy, I love him. I have been told by people that, and I don't know the level of power that he has now, and you don't know, and I'm speaking of Jason Kidd. I don't know what kind of power kid has now, and of course they hired new management this offseason with their general manager leaving and going to Orlando. But I was told Kidd was not in love with Jabari even prior to the injury, but I don't know what kind of swag he's got there anymore. And you don't know what the new GM thinks of him, right?

And he's coming off the knee injuries. I'm a huge Parker fan. I was a huge Parker fan coming out of the draft. It looked like, you know, when he was last uninjured, that he was really going to possibly fulfill destiny and become the all-star player that many predicted him being. But now, geez Louise, I don't know. And I sure don't know if you can make that decision

before you get to the middle of October. So let's talk about Parker next. Do you think does kid not like Jabari because he doesn't play defense? Yes, yes. It's always that. Yes. With Jason kid, it's always...

Understandable. Yeah, it's the... Yes, it's always defense, right? It's always defense and it's all... Because you remember at one point, he kind of turned on the Greek freak. And clearly, Greek freak has become a different player, a better player and he's one of the great players

in the NBA. But you remember there was even a time where it was a little sour on that. And it might just be one of those rights of taxes. But Jabari is not you know, Jason Kidd is given to these hard nose, you know,

bite, scratch, claw, defend, you know, these kind of guys, bulldog type guys. And so, yeah, when you talk about the defensive prowess of or really locking down on defense or feeling like you would dive in the third like a kid would love the guy that will dive in the third row for a ball and certainly we know

that is not the MO at least so far in the career of Tupari Parker um but again back to the injury you know you're having to make a decision on this guy within a month's time um and i'm sure they've already seen him and we'll see how he looks when he comes back from this. But it's not, this is another time that it's happened to a knee. So it certainly becomes a much more risky investment than it looked like it was going to be when he had fully recovered. Him missing that rookie season was awful. What would you do?

What would you do on Parker? I mean, it all depends on the money. In the article, I kind of, these four guys, Gary Harris, Marka, Marka, smart jbarri parker and clippella they were guys that if i'm the team i would like to sign them for you know the right value ahead of their restricted for agency but if i'm the agent i'm probably going to want to wait like those are the four particular guys for that reason so like if you are parker and you are his agency you probably do want to wait um because you do want to hope that he gets back and he returns and that he's healthy rather than signing a deal that might be below market

value. You could make the argument that Parker would be better off signing his qualifying offer next summer and then becoming a restricted free agent the following year. That could really be an unorthodox approach, but it could be something that can maximize his earnings and give him the opportunity to really prove he's healthy and prove that he is that score that we did start to see at the end of the season. Some of the other guys on that list, I mean, it's different without the injury. Yeah, but given the time he has missed, even the first couple of years of his career, that would be just a massive risk. I mean, I would, I know everybody believes in their self and their ability to come back

and be what they were once going to be. But if I'm Jabarak Parker, I would take the maximum amount of money I could get at the time because I've already missed, you know, one whole season, almost two full seasons over the course of my first couple of years of my career. And I get what I could now. because if you take that risk and blow out the knee again, then you ain't getting nothing, right? It's true.

At least now it's an unknown. I don't know. He is the one. He's counting on a lot coming back from another knee. But of those guys, his ceiling is much higher than Gary Harris's or Marcus Smart. And I would put it on part. Maybe. Oh, I don't know.

I don't know if I, I don't know. I don't know, Chris, because Gary Harris, Gary Harris is a two-way player. Well, again, I'm taking the injury into account, Kev. If Jabari Parker does not have this last knee injury, he, to me, is the same, he's Wiggin. I would put him in the Wiggins category as the no-brainer. I think he could have been a big star. It will be dependent upon how he comes back from this. But I mean, geez, it looked like he was on.

his way to become one of the, possibly one of the great players in the NBA. I thought, I don't know if, have you seen that in the first three years of Harris or, uh, or, or smart?

Are we going to look up? Do you think I, Jabari is a guy that I would have looked up and said, he is absolutely going to be on all-star teams. I don't know if Gary Harris or Marcus Smart ever makes an all-star team. Well, yeah, I mean, like that,

that 2014 drafts after and B, I had Embed number one, but after the injury, I bumped him down to three. and I had Parker won ahead of Wiggins that year. Just kind of for that reason, Chris, where he had that go-to scoring potential, a guy who could really win you games. And I think his defense, as bad as it's been,

I do think he could at least be average in playoff situations, and that's really what ultimately matters. But you're right. The injury complicated everything for Parker. Complicated things for the bucks. Whereas for Gary Harris, he's a guy who's clearly rising, who has gotten better each and every year of his career. And for the Nuggets, for them, it's about,

projecting ahead. It's not about worrying about the injuries as much. For Marcus Smart, the question is simply, can his jumper get better for the selfies? Can he stay in better shape like he's supposed to be this year? For the Rockets, it's, can Compella continue to get stronger and continue refining his defensive ability? Continue improving on the pick and roll. Continue doing the little things. It's things like that, or as for Parker, it's that one big question. Can he stay healthy? And the best ability is availability and Parker has thus far, unfortunately, proven that he hasn't been very available. But it's going to be just so interesting to me, Chris,

just to see the money these guys get if they resign. I get you. No, and I'm with you. Or what they could get next summer. I, and maybe this is, maybe this isn't fair, but this is, this is where I am right now on my opinion of these. Parker, if healthy, you can't just go find a replacement for that. Those guys don't, they just,

don't exist. I think you would be a lot, it would be a lot easier to find somebody that will give you most of, if not more, of what Harris gives you and Capella, that if you missed out, if you decided not to pay him and he had to go find somebody, that you got a way better chance of finding a Gary Harris level player or a Capella level player, or at least close to mimicking what they bring to the table, whereas I do not believe you could find that with Parker. Again, we're speculating that he is the Jabari Parker we saw prior to, which that may be a fool's errand. And by the way, let me go back. I need to change, and I've been telling myself this over and over again, Kev.

I got to change my thought process on the whole, will he ever make an All-Star team? Because you may be an Easter conference All-Star next year. Like, that is not going to be. Being an NBA All-Star is not going to be what it is. it once was given what has taken place this off season. Now being a Western conference, JV team. I know. Being a Western Conference All-Star, that's like being a frigging Hall of Famer now. Like, you're going to have to be

a Hall of Famer to make the Western Conference All-Star team. Whereas Easter Conference All-Stars, like, I mean, I say that. Like, I don't know. There's many few players that you could name to me that I would be like that's insane that they could so i i used to think it was a big deal to make the all-star team and i feel like that's going to be challenged uh in a great way this year with the eastern conference um with that being said the question is it's all nba that's what you're going to ask is this guy an all-nba player not all-star all-nbbaa um the other one is this and let's talk about it it's not like you focused on the four the imb thing is out there okay so

And what would you do if you're Philly with Embed? Because-wait, wait, wait, wait. It's 30 games of health so far. Yeah, you're going to wait. I mean, it's sad, but you got to wait. I mean, like, what's the point in signing him to a four-year max deal or something like that now? And if you're the eight, if you're Joelle and Bede in his agency, I don't think you'd want to settle for that either. I think you'd also probably want to prove that he can stay healthy.

At the same time, like, if you're the Sixers, I think you probably want to wait because you're in a position now where even if in a worst case scenario, even if Joel Embed like gets hurt again and like, you know what? It just doesn't look good for him in his career. You're still in a good spot. You still have so much young talent that things, good things are happening for your franchise overall, even if like the best talent. still isn't there, right? So I don't think you would necessarily want to suck up all that cap space with a player who maybe could be, continue to be an injury risk. I'd rather wait till restricted free agency next year and just match whatever deal he gets because if he stays healthy and he gets offered a max contract and he signs that offer sheet, guess what? You're going to

match it anyway and you're going to feel good about it. So I would just wait until restricted free agency. Honestly, like, unless the deal was cheaper and it was advantages for Philly to do it now, I don't think I'd be willing to re-up him now. You know what it's a little reminiscent of. And this is how one of the ways, one of the sneaky ways that the whole Warriors thing was able to be built as it was in the first place prior to this monstrous contract that Curry got,

we recall because of his, there was those ankle questions. He signed that deal. They did get him, right? They did, and it enabled them. They signed him. what was and at again we got to go back in time when that was signed people did not think i believe it was a four and 44 and people were like hey like they it was not some kind of slam dunk uh home run

they just you know what i mean this is this is smart because look at look at look at he they just got him on a super bargain and we can all do revisionist history now because of course he became an MVP in the midst of that contract. But he was an injury risk. He was a guy that had missed games. And you wondered if the ankles were going to be able to hold up. And you wondered if he was going to be a guy that could be the best player on a great team. Those questions were out there when he signed that deal.

And of course, like I said, with the injury thing. And so I don't know. I do think of that when you got this weird gamble, right? because you know what you're paying him, and you do wonder on his end if you're Embed, you know, do you give him what is a really good contract, not a great contract,

certainly not max contract. Do you give him that and just bet because if it works out your way, you got a curry situation on your hands, and you've got one of the best players in the league at a reasonable price. But if you weighed it out and he does fulfill his potential, that price could go up exponentially, right? That is something you got to think about.

Absolutely. And I think you brought up a good point there, Chris, where with Curry, that really did help enable to enable the warriors to do some of the things they did in the following years. And that's the tough question. And be in Leon Rose, his agent need to ask themselves, is are we willing to take a safer deal that provides some long-term security for Joe? Bede or are you confident that your client can stay healthy for the full season and then really maximize his earnings next summer? Because obviously the Sixers, I don't believe, would give him a max now after only playing 31 games in his NBA career.

So look, man, like that's the kind of, I guess the fun part of this next month is just going to be seeing who gets deals and who doesn't. I think some of these guys are going to end up bargains. Some guys are going to end up overpay. Because next year, summer, Chris, there's not a lot of money out there. And that's the other factor people need to consider that. There's not going to be a lot of teams with Cap Space. So the money that you think you might get, you might end up getting screwed.

That's what happened in Nerland's O'L. He didn't get paid last year. And guess he got one year $4.1 million when the expectation last year at this time was that he might be like a $20 million player. It didn't happen. The opposite happened. So I think we really need to tame our expectations with what some of these. guys are going to get paid either now or next summer. But you got to wonder, let's just say, let's say you're Philly, right?

And you say, all right, we do want to wait and see. But you want to take it. We'll give you $4.60 right now. You'd have to think if you're him, right? Like, obviously it's a risk if you're Philly. And it's a risk if you're him, but you would have, like, the ultimate safety. hell or high water, I'd have 60 million. And I hadn't been able to stay healthy at all.

I don't know. What would you do in that scenario? I think if I'm in beat, I'd rather a like a two-year, $40 million deal, like a short-term, more money, but also provides some security because it's a larger annual contract. And I think if I'm the Sixers, maybe I'd almost rather do something like that too. but at the same time, again, like, I don't know if the agent would want the full max contract next summer. But I think that's what I would be looking for right now. It's an incredible subject, right?

Bigger money, short-term deal. I mean, it's an incredible subject because we know there's no amount of max money that can be enough for him if he is healthy. Like the guy is going to be, I mean, he has Hall of Fame talent for real. There's, he's rare as rare can be. And so you know that, but he has had this impossible time staying on the floor. And so it creates one of the great conundrums for both sides, I would think. I would encourage everybody go to the ringer and check out Kevin's article on these fourth year players from the draft. And whether or not teams will try to extend them before.

October. You know, and you've got all kinds of players in there. You list them all. Kyle Anderson, Rodney Hood, Julius Randall, Nick Stasquez, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, T.J. Warren. There's a bunch of guys in there.

The one that stood out to me outside it, because you talked about the four, right? You talked about, and you would not, and I think, let's just go back to make it clear. If you are the Nuggets, if you are the Celtics, what would you do with Smart? what would you do with Harris?

Would you extend them prior to said deadline? With all four of these players, they are players that I would look to extend if I'm the team for the right price, but if I'm the agent, I'm probably going to want to wait until next summer to hope to maximize earnings. So it's like, it looks at it from both sides. If you're the team, you want to get them locked up now. If you're the agent, you probably want to hold off and hope that the player continues progressing in the coming season and then is able to make more money in the future.

Like those guys where like the decision isn't like clearly a no like it is with the nextous and it's not clearly a yes like it might be with Andrew Wiggins. The one that jumped off the page at me, at least that I thought, I bet they extend him is Nurkage because of the impact that he had in the short amount of time that he was there. It appears as if he is an extremely good fit with what they've got in Portland. And they, you'd re-up him now, you said?

Yeah, well, when you make that trade, right? When you, you know, they made the trade. Definitely wait. Huh? You would wait. I would definitely wait. After three years of laziness in Denver and then the big injury, it's like, I just, I would be worried that it would end up like being a bad decision just based off the 20

or so games that he played with Portland. It could end up being a bargain too, but I mean, after all those years in Denver, I don't know, man. I just worry it was just kind of a quick burst of energy and that's it. That's fair. But I would just say, you know, when you get past the four guys that you talked about, it's hard to find accomplished guys, right? I mean, very few of those guys were starters on good teams that were.

Rodney Hood, maybe. Rodney Hood, like there's another one that he might think about. Yes, he was a starter on a good team. Yes. Rodney hood. But it is a few. Most of them are, most of them are nose, aren't they? I mean, like, up and down the list.

Most of these guys, you're probably not looking to extend unless it's on a low money deal. Again, Noah Vonle, Aaron Gordon, T.J. Warren. Again, I'm going to go. Dutie fresh. Julius Randall. Shabazz Napier. LeBron's number one pick in the 2014 drafts. Yeah.

I'm not saying that these guys can't be, you know, the book's not, the story is not written on all of them for certain. So the idea that Julius Randall could be starting on a good team would, that's not. I mean, that's not out of this, or that's certainly not out of the rumble possibility to me. But they have not, right? Aaron Gordon and Julius Randall and all those guys that we were just talking about, they have not been starters on good teams yet. And so you are, you're guessing, right, would they be if they were on good teams? And so you just don't have a lot of, like Rodney Hood is.

he's proven right he can be a starter on a good team he's proven that but it's been very difficult for the other guys the other guys just haven't been in winning situations that you're making decisions on and that makes it quite quite difficult if it if it's me making the call right rodney hood's a guy to watch this year chris he he he's a guy to watch with gordon hayward there if you if you look at his splits his split numbers with gordon hayward on the floor versus when Hayward's off the floor. Hood puts out big numbers when Hayward was off. So if the opportunity's there for him, and I think chances are it probably will be, he could be a guy who we see just kind of out of nowhere average like 22 points a game. And I know that number itself really doesn't mean a

whole lot, but I think from where he is now, it would be representative of how far he's come and his upside because the chances could be here for them to be that guy. There was a report earlier this week or sometime over the weekend that they they've kind of asked him to rededicate himself to i guess in preparation of a larger role so hood's a guy where we could see that uptick in production this year that's interesting because you know uh when we last spoke i am convinced that donovan mitchell is going to be the real deal and if he is not a fantastic NBA player, I will be shocked. I was just absolutely blown away by him.

Who knows when it happens. But it does kind of, that's a little weird, right, with him and Hood, when you're talking about Hood, maybe taking the leap forward, because I think they've got another guy that could end up being amazing. Like, really, I think I was just, my first impressions of that kid were as good as anybody in a long time. I'm all in on Donovan Mitchell. So that would kind of impede you from becoming a big star

if you're Rodney Hood if that kid ends up being as good as I think he's going to be. Yeah, Hood definitely is going to have to get off to a solid start. Yeah. And just to put those numbers out there, Chris, according to NBA.com's impact tool with Hayward on the floor per 36 minutes, hood average 13.7 points per game.

which is kind of what you expect as a role player. But when Hayward was off the floor per 36 minutes, Hood averaged 22.2 points per game. Wow. And his efficiency upticked on a larger, larger field goal attempts per 36. So look, like, that's a small sample size. It's only 608 minutes played without Gordon Hayward.

Very small sample. But with that said, there's at least a little bit of evidence that Hood is capable of scoring efficiently with a larger role in the team. So I'll be very, very interested. if he kind of does take that role and run with it, or Mitchell just suddenly becomes a starter

and he continues his incredible play that we saw over the summer. I mean, that could happen. I mean, either way, I think Utah has talent, man. I mean, it's disappointing in lost Gordon Hayward, but you get to move forward. They have some good talent on that team. I'm glad we're talking about that because I do want to mention another guy real quickly on that,

and that is Exum. and you wondered if they lost George Hill would they hand the keys to him? He had a couple playoff moments. You remember that there was that stretch in the first round against the Warriors and I know they got wiped out against the Warriors, but there was that stretch where he was the best player on the court,

at least for a quarter, right? And you saw, if you just watch the quarter, you're like, damn, man. And he was doing all kinds of great stuff, both ends and there were so there's flashes where Exum looks like he you know

could be the special player that many once predicted but they were clearly not comfortable just handing it over to him even after you know the first three years of his career and so I do wonder what becomes of Exum because he's another one

of those guys that was listed in your possible extension list what you think on Exam? I mean I I loved Exxon as a process aspects entering the draft in 2014. I was really into him. He really stunk as a rookie.

Then obviously he missed an entire year. And I think that's something that almost gets overlooked in a way where last year was his third year in the NBA, but it was really only his second full season of development. And it was coming off a major injury. So point guards often take so long to develop for numerous reasons. I mean, XM is only 22 years old and just turned 22 this summer, actually. So he's still super young. And if I'm the Utah Jazz, yes, you wouldn't be willing to hand him the keys to the offense this year.

That's why you got Ricky Rubio, never mind the factor that you got Rubio in the hopes of maybe bringing back Hayward. But at least with Rubio, now you have a guy who for two years can maybe allow you to let Exum develop. Then maybe XM is your guy moving forward entering the 2019-20 season. Or at the least, you get to see him for another year and see if he continues developing. because look, you're right. He did show flashes, Chris. But at the same time, for the most part, though, that was really one of only a few flashes.

Exum hasn't shown a whole lot. And as much as I would like to stick to my original evaluation of Exum, I think I might have overrated him a little bit based off limited footage available, based off limited information. And look, it's very possible what we saw from him is what we continue to see, where he's just kind of a backup point card.

And that's a disappointing thing, because I thought he had a lot of talent. But if I'm Utah, I still want to hold on to him and see what he's about because it's only going to be his third year of development. Well, you better hope he's good because though they have been a really good story of being able to get themselves,

pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and I know that they get brought up a lot for, you know, they nailed it with, I think it's fair to say, with Rodney Hood. They nailed it with Rudy Gobert in the draft. You do wonder. and if XM is, you know, the second column was what you just said. They just not that.

Then, boy, they really blew it with him and Trey Burke with two, like, those are too high draft picks. And you wonder like, God, what if they would have nailed those? What if they would have nailed those draft picks? Because they nailed the later picks with some guys. And obviously the Ingalls thing has worked out really well. You just wonder, right? Like if Exum stinks, then they blew it on those two picks.

But we'll see. I don't know, right? They had two top tens. Exxom was what, like three or four? And Burke was seven? Something like that? Exxom was drafted fifth. Oh, he was fifth.

Okay, forgive me. Fifth pick in the draft. Look, I mean, like, it's hard to nail picks. And especially when you consider, like, we talked about with Parker. And like we're talking about with Embedd, too. Exum had the major injury too. And oftentimes it takes two years for a guy to recover from a torn ACL. And last year was only his first year back.

So I think this year will be more representative. Yeah, I hope he turns out good. He seems like a great kid. He really does. Every time I see him interviewed or anything, I end up really liking him. And he is so long. And he's athletic. And he's got all the stuff you look at him and you think, man, this guy could be really good.

Obviously, he's got become a better shooter for sure. But there's a lot I like about him. And you never know. With point guards, man, sometimes you can look up. Nobody would have ever predicted, you know, consistent All-Star play out of Kyle Lowry for the first five, six years of his career. And then you look up and there he is. So sometimes you do have to give it more time than you even want to. Same goes with Mike Connolly for that matter.

Both XM and Marcus Smart, back-to-back picks on that 2014 drafts. Right now, nobody at all thinks about them as potential all stars. But six years from now, you never know. Things change quickly in the NBA, Chris, as we've seen this summer with so much change, time, when time goes by, man, you never know what these players can turn into. I still like both XM and smart. Granted, they might not have turned into the offensive scores. People might have hoped they would be when they first entered the draft. Speaking of so much that it changed over the summer,

we are going to get to four questions, four off-season questions as we take a peek ahead to the upcoming NBA season. We'll do that on the other side. Hey, it's Bill Simmons. Wanted to make sure you're listening to the Bill Simmons podcast this year. We stepped it up with the guests. I don't even have time to list all of them,

but let's just say we have had the who's here of A-listers, a-minus listers, B-plus listers, in sports, pop culture, movies, music. I mean, where else can you get Kevin Durant, Steve Balmer, Jimmy Iveen, and Charlie Staron in the span of six weeks? Nowhere. The answer is nowhere.

You can find that literally nowhere other than the Bill Simmons podcast. We are in Year 11. It's been an honor to do it. Hope you subscribe. Bill Simmons podcast. Check it out. Subscribe wherever you get your podcast.

All right, Kevin. We've got four questions we're going to get to about the off season since we have not spoken in so long. Question number one, after all the offseason movement, is the Warriors reign still a foregone conclusion? Though everybody, you know, mixed and matched players, and we had all kinds of stars move,

do we look up now as we get prepared for the NBA season to begin in the not-so-distant future, about a month away, and say, you know, if somebody who is not NBA fan and does not think that it's fun and enjoy it no matter, that they want it to be an undecided, you know, NBA champion. Do we feel like after everything that has been done, that the champion for next NBA season,

and again, we are saying barring injury, we're throwing that out, everybody just goes in and everybody stayed uninjured, is the Warriors winning the title, a foregone conclusion after what took place in the offseason with all the other teams. What do you think? So Jeff Van Gundy said the other day that the quote, the Warriors are going to win forever if everything stays the same.

So with that said, yes, the Warriors will win forever if everything stays the same. I agree. But the thing is is things haven't stayed the same. The Rockets got better. The Celtics got better. And you know what? If Isaiah Thomas stays healthy,

maybe Cleveland got better too. So while the Warriors are definitely the favorite, and they definitely are the team who I would say probably has like a over 50% chance of winning against the rest of the other 29 teams. It's not a foregone conclusion because one injury happens. One team makes a major addition. One team gets hot in the playoffs. You don't know. I think there are a handful of teams that could potentially beat them.

There's not a lot of teams and it's unfortunate that they don't really have a worthy nemesis right now. But maybe a team turns into that. So I don't think it's a foregone conclusion, Chris, even though the likelihood is extremely high that they, yes, they do win once again. What about you, Chris? What do you think? I say it is much, much harder than it was last year, the first Durant year. I think that, you know, that happened last year. And there was not a bunch.

We didn't look around and go, wow, they got way better and they got way better. I didn't feel that way last off season. It was kind of like, holy crap, this isn't fun. Like, you remember everybody's immediate reactions, this is stupid, you know, right? Like, this is dumb. They were already a team that crushed everybody, and now they're adding Kevin Durant after they had just lost, by the way, to Cleveland. I look at it and say, okay, last year their greatest competition,

and it's not their fault that other teams did get banged up during the playoffs, but that did happen, right? The aforementioned George Hill, and then they move on to the next round, and guys were banged up. They played, and then of course, you know, in that last round, Kauai got banged up. Yep. It is my expectation.

Chris, there are, I've talked to like a bunch of different NBA executives this summer. And like a lot of people still think the Spurs would have gave them a run for their money. A lot of people, I don't know if that's just false hope, but a lot of people actually believe the Spurs would have made him a run. And I, you were on that side. Oh, 100%. I believe that 100%. Because here's why.

Kauai, again, we only have that one, you know, the one stupid game. Quai had like 27. I know, but he had like 27 points in like 22 minutes. He was by far the best player on the court, okay? And they were up huge. And I contend they would not have blown that lead. They would have won that game. Okay.

So if we accept that, at the very least, we know that the Warriors would have had to have won four of the next six games against San Antonio, the majority of which would have come in San Antonio. And so, yeah, I think that would have been a hell of a series if Kauai doesn't get hurt. But again, that didn't happen, so we don't know.

But they were unchallenged, we would say, for the most part in those playoffs. And I think the Western Conference teams did get way better. Even the low, I think the eighth place team in the Western Conference this year could be pretty damn good. I think it's possible that whoever's eight is pretty damn good. Whereas that was not the case, right?

In terms of having a chance to beat them. How about this? A chance to take them to six games. That that could happen. Whereas that just clearly was not the case last year. And so, yeah, I think in between, and I also think that, you know, the calves could be better. I think. Yeah, maybe.

Yeah, I think it's totally possible. I hope they got better. I hope they got better because that means Isaiah Thomas comes back and he's healthy. Yeah, I think that it's, I hope they got better. I think it's totally possible they got better. and it is 100% certain that Boston got better. So those two teams for sure are better than they were last year. And one of those two will represent the Eastern Conference.

And I think that the teams in the Western Conference got significantly better. I think whoever they face will be better than last year Spurs. That's what I'd say. Whoever they face, they have to knock off to get. yet. And then you're talking about three straight runs to that thing. And I know that it's become old hat for LeBron because he's just in the finals every year. But it's very, very hard. Let's wait, the fourth, the fourth one in a row. Oh, yeah, no, no, no, you're right. You're it'll be four. It'll be four times. Which is crazy to think about. I mean, and you, and, and again,

that starts to matter when you start getting tested. I mean, I hate to say this, but the longer you play in the playoffs, the more likely it is somebody gets injured. But they have played like damn near the minimum amount of games. If they start, you know what I mean? If they play Oklahoma City and Westbrook and George could win a couple games from them, or they played against one of these teams, right? In the first round or the second round of the playoffs, and these teams take them to, you know, six games.

next round they go to six or seven games and then the next round right i just last year i thought it was totally feasible that they would just wipe the floor with everyone this year i do think both conferences um only the two teams in the east will supply much greater competition i do believe that they've got to be the favorite but i hope we're right chris that that's all i'm going to say i hope we're right that the warriors get more competition this year but even if they don't even if they don't there's a hell of a lot of fun stuff that's going to be happening this season a lot of stories to monitor and watch next question which of the stars that moved places is going to have the biggest impact on their new team you want me start chris paul chris paul with the rockets

i think the dynamic with paul and harden playing together and having one of those guys on the floor for all 48 48 minutes it's just going to be a fascinating thing to watch and i and i'm I don't know if that's actually the answer to the question. It might actually be someone like Jimmy Butler, but I'm just going to be fascinated to see two of the premier guards on the same team really sharing the floor for a large chunk of games, but also having one of those guys on the floor at all times. It's going to be just fascinating to see that in Mike Dantonie's offense.

And I'm just very excited to see what happens with them, especially if they add mellow at some point during the season. The answer right now is Jimmy Butler, Kevin. I mean, I don't know. I don't know what the number of wins. But I mean, I mean, wins and losses, right? If that's how we're going to judge it,

and how many more than 55 are the Rockets going to win? Let's say they have a... I don't care about regular season wins. I care about playoff wins. I mean, 55, 65, who cares? Yeah, but Minnesota was a 31st. I mean, Minnesota was a 31 win team.

Now, it's going to be hard to gauge because they are, I mean, they added Jamal Crawford. They added Jeff Teague. You know, they've got, they got some guys that, you know what I mean? It's not just one guy that they've added. They have a weird roster. Huh? They have a weird roster. They have like all centers.

Yeah, well, and all point cards. And then Wiggins and Buller. I get it. But adding those veterans, though, it's just a weird roster. Adding those veterans and guys that have been in, you know, big spots like Jeff Teague, like Todd Gibson, like Jamal Crawford.

I mean, you added good guys that are, it's not just like the veteran guy that can like, hey, show them the way it's done. Like when they had, you know, KG and Tashon Prince a couple years ago. These are like guys that are still really, you know, obviously butlers at peak of powers. And then the other two can certainly contribute big time. And so obviously we won't be able to just point to Jimmy Butler and say he had the greatest impact.

But I don't know, man. Paul George is obviously he's another one, right? You know, that was a one-man band last year. I think we all agree. And so what does it look like now? Russell Westbrook definitely agrees. Well, that's super fascinating. to see how that works, right?

I mean, we saw it once upon a time. How much different is Westbrook and George versus what Westbrook and Durant once was, you know? Did you see Russell Westbrook on Jimmy Fallon last night? I did not. I was going to go back and watch it. You should. Westbrook and Jimmy Fallon play like a two-minute game of NBA jam.

And Westbrook has himself on his team. And literally every single time he passed himself the ball. It was just so funny to watch It's like, hey, that's exactly what happens in real life It's funny It's funny you say that because a couple of weeks ago I did this sit down with Tyree Evans who said he cannot play

2K with the team that he is on Because he shoots it every time And of course I Of course I held my tongue, right? I didn't want to say Yeah Oh wow, that's way out of the ordinary it's like it's like what are you rated like a 67 in that game no no tarreek's got a good number

in the game tarry can get tarry can get buckets look i i just have to say this about mba 2k i don't like how everybody's ratings are between 65 and 100 i mean use the full one one to a hundred scale have more variance than ratings i know it would be insulting to a player to be like a 42 but at the same time. I just, I, I, I wish there was more variance in the ratings. Like some rookies are rated higher than some veterans, which blows my mind. Are you a 2K guy? I used to be, but not any, I don't play video games anymore. None? Nope. I sold my Xbox 360 a couple years ago. Wow. Sold, sold my PS4 a couple years ago and don't really play games unless I'm chilling with friends or whatever. Just following you on, uh, Instagram. I think you sold. I, sold my PS4 a couple years ago. And I, I think

you sold all that money and all you do is go to concerts with it. I swear to God, you go to a concert every damn week. No, I don't go to that many shows. Yes, you do. I have some shows lined up, though. I got some good shows lined up, though, Chris. I got Arcade Fire, the War on Drugs, Roger Waters, St. Vincent's. Those are some shows I got lined up coming up next. Wow. Yeah, no, I always see you talking about going a concert. I just saw, what was that, Lady Gaga? When did you just recently go see Lady Gaga or something? Lady Gaga I haven't been in that many shows this year

So Lady Gaga John Mayor I went to I went to Lollapalooza What are you talking about Chance the rapper I don't go to that That's like three shows That's like all I've been to this entire year

That's not that much at all You just said you with a Lala Palooza Yeah I know But that was like for vacation That was the I think you're on it I think you're unaware of like Our general audience member

Going to going to one concert might be the criteria. Three concerts isn't like one every week. You just named five. I don't even know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. I just, I don't,

Chris, I think I just realized I don't know how to count. I just realized it. I forgot how. All right. All right, let's get to the next one. Three players that are non-star players,

because the stars are easy, right? Kyrie and Paul George or Butler, whoever, that we think will be helped by their move to a new team, right? That they could feasibly perform much better than they previously performed on their last team. I'll give you my three. Mine are Patrick Beverly, who I think, right, he'll be the starting point guard for the Clippers. I'd imagine probably plays big minutes.

I think he has more offensive game than he has shown. You know, he's played a role, certainly, alongside some really good players, not the least of which is James Harden, who's a very high-volume guy who has the ball in his hands a lot. I think Patrick Beverly is better than what his numbers indicate so far in his NBA career. and I could foresee him being a guy that we consider, you know, you know, it's not just like the role player point guard, right? The Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers, guy that just kind of next to a star, but rather a guy that is actually much better offensively in his own right

than we once realized. And you know he's an animal on defense and has a tremendous impact on his team. He's like a every team's spirit animal. Do you know what's insane? When all that crap went down with rockets getting busted out and hardened playing like shit at the end, I talked to a guy named Sean Pendergast is one of my buddies who's a sports talk host in Houston.

And he told me that the favorite player in Houston, and it's not even close, was Patrick Beverly. And I said, it's not hard. He's a beast, man. He said it is not hard. So anyway, I've always got a soft spot for Beverly. I like these Chicago guys, these tough guys. And I could, I think he's, I think he could have a really good year with the Clippers.

You know, this is kind of his chance to show what he is. And so, yeah, I think Beverly's won. Patrick Patterson, you know, I've always had this irrational love for him. He is, in my estimation, the best signing of the offseason at the price that they got him in Oklahoma City. The best? Okay, for the price. Yeah. No, for the price. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm, that was definitely a bargain deal. Yeah, that's what I mean. For the price, I think he is the best, he is the best bargain. And I think playing alongside Westbrook and George could serve him very well. And so I think Patterson. And then the easy one for me is called Well Pope. You don't talk about a guy betting on himself, right? He took the one year deal. Last year was a disaster. I think people were a lot. I mean, people at one point,

thought that there was quite a bit of potential for Contavius Caldwell Pope. And, like, you know, he was like, I think like 11, 11 points a game or something last year. And it was just, it was just bad. And that whole thing was bad. And you're playing with Reggie Jackson. And if there's one thing we know about Lonzo, we'll see if he does it immediately. But damn, if he doesn't get guys in good positions, he certainly did, you know, we saw him in the summer league. And he was, whatever your ceiling is, I don't.

feel like that you got a chance much like guys that played with I hate to do this to the kid already but it it is that Nash type of thing where it's um this guy's going to get you in good spots and he is going to get you good shots and so if you've got the requisite level of talent I think he could uh he could certainly help you achieve greater things than what you had without him. And so, and playing with Reggie, that whole thing was a mess, right? That team stunk. Van Gundy hated his team. Everybody thought Jackson and Drummond were going to be going somewhere else. You're playing alongside Reggie Jackson, who's the antithesis of Steve Nash. I don't know. I think Caldwell Pope could be really good for the Lakers and have a really good year. So those are mine.

The non-stars that I think could have much better years, given their change of scenery, and the opportunity that they are now going to be given. Colwell, Pope, Beverly, and Patrick Patterson. No way your list is better than mine. Well, I just want to add to KCP that the best thing about that signing is the fact that you're doing LeBrod's agent a big favor giving him all that money. Just to go ahead and next summer. I'm just saying, just throwing that out there. Anyway, there are some that believed that that that,

is true, Kevin, that that was not just about the individual talent and value of Contavius Caldwell Pope, but yet he benefited from being represented by clutch management. I tend to agree with that. I'm sure. Yeah, I would tend to agree with that as well, Chris. Speaking of someone else connected to LeBron, first person on my list is Jay Crowder going to the Cavaliers. He's exactly the type of guy they've needed.

last three years. I mean, in that deal, Kyrie Irving obviously is an impact player going towards Boston, but so is Jay Crowder going to the Cavaliers. You can make the real argument that he has more value than Isaiah Thomas. He's probably the second most valuable piece they got besides Isaiah Thomas. Jay Crowder is going to be someone if they're in the finals again, who's going to be able to defend multiple positions, who's going to be able to hit spot-up threes for you.

He's the type of guy they need instead of giving increased amount of minutes to Richard Jefferson and Channing Fry and guys. and like that type. So now you get Jay Crowder. And then I let me give me a sneaky thing about Jay Crowder. His greatest value to the Cavs is that he will keep Jeff Green off the court. Because they signed Jeff Green in the offseason and Tyron Loo would have played him. But instead is now, now it will be Jay Crowder on the court instead.

Oh, no. For Jeff Green. No team has. Don't believe, Chris, the Jeff Green. He all, he's pouting right now. He hears you when the show hasn't even been put online yet. He's pouting right now. Been around Jeff Green a long time.

Sweetest kid in the world. And I love his story. He's coming over the heart ailment and all this kind of stuff. There is not one team he has ever been on that has been a net positive for when he is on the court. That's just true. And he has been on good teams too. He's been on some crappy team. Dude, he was on the freaking thunder.

And he was on the Grizzlies. And now he's about to be on the cabs. I mean, he's played on some good dives. And it's just, he ain't happening, brother. He's the number one guy that you look at and you're like, damn,

why isn't this guy a star? I mean, even Kevin Garnett years ago said he's going to be a Hall of Famer. Oh, God. He was probably just saying that to pump Jeff Green up, make him feel good, knowing that like he had to try some extreme measure to get him going. But man,

like it's Jeff Green, incredible story, good dude. but just never really has become the player that I think. So Jay Crowder, who are your other two? CJ Miles going to the Raptors. They need some shooting. They need some spacing.

They need to start playing modern basketball. I think CJ Miles will help them quite a lot. That's a good one. And then my third one is JJ Redick going to the Sixers for the one year, $21 million deal. Not only is he going to help that team maybe make a playoff push, but I think he's just a great guy to have fitness. to that role around those other players.

I think he's someone with the spacing he provides, with the defense he provides, where he provides a good example for young players to follow on the court and off the court, but also from like a system point of view, having someone that just take that is able to stretch the floor like that will help other players develop with a more open floor. So I'm excited about JJ Redick and Philly. That's really like a match made in heaven for me. You got a good list for sure, Kevin. All right, last thing.

Not as good as yours, Chris. Your list was better. You're missed. You don't know what I was talking. You had Patrick Beverly. No, you're Mr. Compliment. So I don't even take you seriously because now, like, I think, I think you are so, what's the word with this?

I mean, you're the nicest guy in the world, but you are, you are so liberal with the compliments. Every time I log on to Twitter.com, it's you complimenting someone. This is great. or that was great or I love this or it's great so your compliments just they fall off of me now Kevin I feel like they don't carry the weight that they used to because I mean you could read you could read some article and and and I would think that damn Bill Shakespeare wrote it by the way you compliment these writers oh by the way before we get to the last thing did I see a possible A very small Twitter beef?

Did I see the nicest guy in the world? I don't want to talk about that. Kevin O'Connor getting a little spat maybe? I don't want to talk about that. No comment. I got your back, Kevin. If you want me to take a... I appreciate it.

Hey, I got crow bars. I got ski masks. I'm good. Chris. I got you, Kevin. Fourth question. I always got you back too, Chris. I appreciate that you have mine.

Next, listen, I'd have jumped in if I didn't think you handled yourself so well, Kevin. Thank you. In your Twitter war. God, I loved it.

I hate that you're so, that you don't want to talk about it because all I want to do is talk about it. All right. The next NBA, the next NBA star. We should have started the show with that, I know.

The first thing we talked about. I know. Like anybody's listening to this Godforsaken podcast at this point. They're missing out on it. I should have started. I buried the lead. The next NBA star that is going to move. Is this just in the bag that it is going to be Carmelo Anthony?

Do we think that Carmelo Anthony is going to move before the season begins? I kind of think so what about you I would say probably not but at some point he should I'd be a little surprised if he didn't by the deadline at least

honestly Chris my question is like if it's not mellow who is it I mean who else would it be Andre Drummond maybe is he even a star like is he someone that you call a star

it's Carmelo even a star I don't know I mean yes Carmelo Anthony's a star and hoodie hoodie mellow we we we debated this back in January I think right yeah we did and then hey go watch uh type in hoodie mellow and catch up yeah it's if they let him wear a damn hood on the court Katie bar the door because hoodie the NBA should let him wear a hoodie they should make an exception for Carmelo like at least for one game carmel will should be allowed to wear a hoodie one game even just preseason because it because like like you know it's

imagine the ratings if Carmelo could wear a hoodie for one preseason game. I think it would be fun. Amazing. Um, yeah, I don't really know. Maybe like, uh,

maybe cousins if it's going to hell in, in New Orleans. Maybe, maybe buggy or, I mean, one of those teams with, with an upcoming free agent, like a Russell Westbrook type.

I don't know. Maybe Marcus Aldridge of Shays, if Shays Aronel gets what he wants, um, trades him, but Aldridge isn't even a star, though. He's a star.

The cousin's thing's an interesting one because couldn't you see him and Rondo just hating each other? Possible. That's not outlandish. I could see I can see cousins hating me, you, Tate. I can see cousins hating everybody. Reasonable point. Oh, well, the other one is, and again, you may argue that he's not a star, but Dwayne Wade. That would be the other one.

Kevin Love, that's another one maybe. Wade and Mello, though, are ones that you could foresee. may be tilting things. Like if the Rockets, who many people thought at one point were going to add Carmelo Anthony, if the Rockets added Mello, it does change things.

It does. I mean, good grief. You'd have three frigging Hall of Famers. Say whatever you want. You can crap on Mello all you want. The guy has been great in the scenario in which he had played with other great players. That is one thing that I will give him credit for, right?

Everybody else talks about Olympic Mello. Well, yeah, he's playing with a bunch of awesome guys. It is hard. I'm going to make the excuse for him. And when he once played with awesome guys, with that Billups team and, you know, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith and all them, I mean, they were in the West finals

with a chance to knock off the Lakers, if not for a couple horrible plays. They had a chance. And you go through when you start listing off the best players that Carmelo Anthony has played with, you ain't getting far. That list sucks. and so I do think if you added him to a team

where he's not the 100% focal point or the man he could he could shift the balance of power I believe that I want him I hope it happens for him that he gets to pair up with James Harden and Chris Paul I think that would be exciting for the NBA and exciting for Carmelo Anthony to be on a real real really good team with the Houston Rockets that would be fun we got two weeks until

media days. We've got... Yeah, and you know what? And I thought about this last week when the rockets that maybe they were waiting for the whole sale crap to go through. Because remember that was hot and heavy.

It seemed like that was going to happen. And then yet... I mean, they're going to find somebody to take Ryan Anderson. That's the big issue there. Someone that can take Ryan Anderson's contracts. Well, I saw the other night, like, when...

What was it? Last week, when that news broke with, Darryor Moree put out that, like, cryptic tweet. I was like, oh, my God, they got Carmel. And then it turned out, you know, it was really a cryptic tweet about it. Was that the tennis related tweet? No, it's about the sale of the team or some kind of.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Because the next morning it broke that that guy bought the rockets. Yeah. I thought it was, I was like, oh, God, I'm going to wake up in the morning. The keys, he put out the key. No, no, no, that was, that was, keys was the tennis tweet. I don't know, we might be responding to the same one, to the same tweet. And assuming it had different meanings.

I think we are. There's a tennis player. Oh, I didn't know that. I don't watch tennis. I don't hate tennis. I just don't watch them. Kevin, I've missed you so badly. Madison Keys.

Oh, yeah, I know Madison Keys. Madison Keys. Yeah. She's the one that got beat by Sloan Stevens. I mean, I know what happens. I just didn't. With football getting going, that's what I ended up being focused on. Kevin, I missed you so greatly

and I'm glad that we were back for another NBA show. Chris, I'm excited. I'm excited just for everything we're going to talk about this year. We're going to talk about teams that should blow it up. We're going to talk about teams that need to trade for stars. It's going to be fun, man. I look forward to debating with you every Tuesday. It's going to be a really good time.

We will be back next Tuesday on the Ringer NBA show. Thanks to Tate Frazier back in the studio and we'll talk to you next week.