The Ringer NBA Show - The Blake Griffin Blockbuster | The Ringer NBA Show (Ep. 201)

Episode Date: January 30, 2018

The Ringer’s Chris Vernon and Kevin O’Connor discuss the impact of John Wall’s injury on the Eastern Conference playoff picture (0:54), scrutinize the Blake Griffin trade (6:37), project the futures for both teams involved (30:24), and debate the fallacies of defensive metrics (41:39). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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in advance in top destinations and up to a week in advance everywhere else. So, if you want to start scoring amazing deals at incredible hotels, download the Hotel Tonight app now. Welcome to the Ringer NBA show. I'm Chris Vernon. And joining me as he does every Tuesday from the ringer.com is Kevin O'Connor, aka Kevin O'Connor, aka Kevin O'Compter, aka Kevin O'Compton, who is now a Los Angeles residence.

Has everything gone okay over the course of the past week and a half? Yeah, man, things are going great. How are you doing, Bernal? Everything's good. Boy, were you in the middle of it yesterday? Oh, boy. Because the place where you just moved. One week in L.A., and they're already blowing it up. All right, before we get to that, the big news that came out this morning as we are recording is that John Wall is going to have his knee scoped and is going to be out anywhere, you know, anywhere from six to eight weeks. I mean, you're talking about possibly two months.

It's just about to be the beginning of February. So if he could miss February and March or February in a good portion of March, that's obviously going to put the Wizards in quite the awkward spot standings-wise. I just saw where Zach Lowe did a little quick, quick research and found out that 16 of their next 20 games are against teams that are currently in the playoffs. Yeah, so this is not, this is very, very, very poor timing for the Washington Wizards, if nothing. out. That is rough. And you know, I mean, look at the Wizards right now. They are 27 and 22. They are two games up on the Sixers who are in the eighth seat at the moment. And John Wall out for apparently

for maybe 16 of 20, against 16 playoff teams if he misses 20 games, that is very, very worrisome for a team that a lot of people heading into the season thought was maybe on the same level as the Celtics and the Raptors and a notch below the cavaliers. But really, they're at the same level as the Pacers and the Sixers. And now they're without their star point guard. That is terrifying, especially considering the fact that they just signed John Wall to a super max extension. And he's coming off of double knee surgery.

I mean, we're going to talk later about the risk with Blake Griffin. Well, how about the risk with John Wall? This is where they are going to pay for dicking around with bad teams. Because if you go and look, their record, you know, they have gotten up for the good teams. They became a team that was in the playoffs. You got some guys that got some accolades. You got some guys that got paid. And then this year, they functioned as a team.

And I've seen this, right? Once you start making the playoffs and guys start getting their money that they don't get up for every game, right? And they don't take care of business. That's the difference between, say, the Warriors and the Spurs and obviously the Rockets this year. they take care of business against the sub 500 teams. And throughout this year, that is not what the wizards have done. They haven't taken care of business against the bad teams. They've dropped way too many games to teams that they are superior to.

And that's what enables you to withstand injury is when you start beating up on the teams you should beat up, now you've logged so many wins that you can withstand a losing streak. or playing around 500 or even below 500 because you've got, you know, you've got your wins in the kitty. And now they don't. And so they are at very, very serious risk of missing the playoffs, I would think. Yeah, they're 16 and 11 against teams below 500, which is the worst record of all eight Easter Conference playoff teams against teams below 500. And I don't know if they are at risk of missing the playoffs.

But at the same time, it's very possible that the pistons, now that they have Blake Griffin, make a push, it's possible that the Knicks get hot. So, yes, it is certainly possible. But at the same time, maybe they do just slip down to the eight seed. I don't know, Kevin, because you're going to look. And if you're in that mix where you feel like, hey, we might be able to have a shot at this, we might be able to make the playoffs and make our owner happy and we can get some playoff revenue out of it, you look at this if you're one of those other Easter conference teams and you say, all right, we. We had them sloted in as a definite playoff team, but now the door's open for us. And so maybe they get a little more aggressive in the next two weeks and say, hey, if we tweak here, we tweak there, we weren't necessarily planning on it. But we could get in the playoffs because they're susceptible to dropping out.

They've got a really hard schedule coming up, and they're not going to have their best guy for that. We're about to find out if Otto Porter was worth four years, $104 million. Yeah, I mean, it kind of is who he is. It's kind of like the Harrison Barnes situation in Dallas where, yes, he's going to have to do more. But at the same time, what you're paying him for is that 3 and D role where, you know, sometimes he steps up into some other stuff for you. Well, Harrison Barnes got $10 million less than Auto Porter. And Porter has been terrific in terms of his shooting is for real, right? He's shooting 42% from three, you know, over 40% for the second consecutive season, hits high degree of difficulty, three-pointers for that team.

I think he has met expectations. Granted, you look at the basic box score numbers, he's averaging only 13 points per game, but he has really shut the hell out of the ball, and that's encouraging for him. What does it matter if he shot the hell out of the ball if it means 13? I mean, this is like a total process versus results argument, I suppose.

I don't give a damn what his percentages are. In the end, it's 13 points. If you pay a guy $25 million bucks a year and more, then when John Wagon, goes down, Auto Porter better be a big time player. Oh, like you said, Chris, we're going to see. We're about to see. All right, the Blade Griffin trade took place yesterday.

So out of nowhere, I actually have some mutual friends with Griffin and reached out to them last night. They told me he is intensely sad. He is just sad. It's nine years there. They promised him the world in the offseason. I mean, you know they did. They gave him $173 million.

they raised his jersey up in the rafters and did the mock museum of his life and said that, you know, Clipper for Life and all this kind of stuff. And then, you know, you're less than six months down the road and he's gone. This morning, apparently, I'm seeing right now that he put up a post on Twitter and he wrote, quote, needed a night to digest and reflect on what happened. Dot, dot, dot, dot, dot. From being a number one pick to Law of City to six straight playoff appearances, I am so proud to have been part of the success of the Clippers organization.

L.A. has been my home since I started in the league. I will be forever grateful to the city for embracing me and supporting me. To the fans, you have been awesome every step of the way. Thank you to the years of support. Now I'm ready for the next chapter, getting to work and helping the Detroit Pistons make a run in the Eastern Conference. There you go. So he's digesting it right now. Well, he can put together a nice little note for all the fans, but he is crushed right now.

Moving halfway across the country from Kendall Jenner, from Hollywood, it's blossoming movie career. I thought Rachel Nichols brought up a really good point last night. I saw a discussion between her and then Bobby Marks kind of chimed in on this deal, where Rachel said that one of the fallouts from this could be that Blake made his decision in the offseason to take that deal with the Clippers. And what you are going to find in the course of the next couple of free agent periods is that these players demand no trade. clauses. And Bobby kind of chimed in, as did Rachel, and said it was kind of the tradeoff

for getting the fifth year. Bingo, yep. Right? And so at that point, you know, obviously, you know, life is leverage and which would you rather have? Would you rather have? I almost think that if you talk to Blake Griffin, he'd go back in time and say I'd rather have the no trade. if I thought I was signing for five years and that I might have to play it out in Detroit, I would rather play the four years in L.A. and not be able to be moved. But you never know at the time, right? You think there's no way you're moving. I mean, you're signing there, quote, to be a clipper for life.

No, you shouldn't have thought that. No, because the signs were always there. And this is one of the focuses on my article yesterday where we knew Blake has been shopped in the past. We knew that the Clippers had listened to offers. In 2016, after he punched the team equipment manager, they heard offers. That same summer, Doc Rivers talked with the Celtics for a deal that would have got them, Bradley, and maybe Crowder, and one of the Nets picks. Last season, the Knicks reached out to the Clippers, and Doc Rivers listened.

This season, obviously, there was a report from Michael Scotto that the Clippers offered Blake Griffin for Carl Towns. And now, what happened? Like after two years of trade rumors involving Blake Griffin, granted that they were low level, they were still out there. And look, it's surprising that the deal happened. But the signs were there in the past that they were at least interested in making a big move. And now that we have a new regime in there with Lawrence Frank, his vice president, Jerry West is running the show. Jerry West has never been afraid of making big moves. When he traded Monta Ellis with the Warriors, that was at the time considered, oh my God.

like, what are we doing? We're trading our best player, Monta Ellis. And it's like, well, no, no, no. It was a forward-thinking decision, and that's what this is for the Clippers. And that's why I love it so much. I mean, yes, to your point, Blake probably should have demanded a no-trade clause. But maybe in that situation, maybe the Clippers wouldn't have had as much interested bringing him back, because without the no-trade, they were able to head into the season and do whatever they wanted, right? They could have kept him and built on top of him if they wanted to. But the fact is, is that they got a pretty good deal in return. Okay, but here's what I'll say. Yes, you know that those rumors have been out there, but Chris left. And then they hold this thing where they put your jersey up in the rafters and

call you a clipper for life. I mean, listen, it does, it does though, Kevin. Listen, if the ringer blew you out right now after you just picked up everything in your life and moved out to Los Angeles, you'd be like, what? You can say it's just business, but you would be like, wait, I thought you guys were committing to me. You're right. And it would. feel that way, and yet the sports business historically has shown that there's no such thing as loyalty. You're right that that would be the same exact thing for any one of us who picks up our life and seven months later, you know, you're moving. But really, it's like nine years later. He's been there for a long time. And sports trades happen so frequently. It's part of the nature

of the business there. And it's sad. I feel terrible for Blake. Like, that dude has big dreams in Los Angeles. His whole life is here. I'll just say they shouldn't have rolled him out and told him he's a clipper for life. That's when. I do have a little empathy for it. For sure. Because that's why he signed. And that could hurt them in the sense that players might say to themselves, should we really trust, you know, what they're

telling me, right? They did that to Blake, who was there for nine years? What does it mean to me when they say, I'm going to be the next great clipper or whatever else? So that could have a negative effect on them. But I just think we have such short memories in this league. You know,

I don't think it's going to really make a big impact on them. I think the greater concern is the fact that the Lakers are still a more appealing destination. He has an enormous contract, $35 million per $39 million in 2021. So if both guys are still there, Blake and Drummond combined would make almost $70 million in that 2021 season. So let's go on both sides. First, the actual trade and the return.

Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, a first round pick that's top four protected and a second round pick. Is this trade worth it? You don't re-sign Avery Bradley. Yeah, because they dump a potential albatross contract with Blake Griffin. He'll be 32 years old and earned $39 million in the fifth year of that contract. And it's very possible that by that point, it could be one of the worst contracts in league history if he continues a steady decline. And hopefully he doesn't. Blake is probably one of my favorite players to watch. But the fact is that despite improving, you know, his three-point and despite still being a sometime sourceful defenders, despite being an elite rebounder and a great playmaker,

his scoring has declined. He lacks the same explosiveness vertically and laterally that he had in the past, and his athleticism was a big, big part of his success over his career. So he's going to have to evolve with the Detroit Pistons. And for the Clippers, look, man, like Tobias Harris is a really good player. And whether or not Avery Bradley resigns, it's nice if he does, but at the same time, Like you did this trade so you're versatile.

So you are flexible moving forward. They have the ability to open up cap space to sign one max free agent or possibly two if they take extreme measures between now and the trade deadline and then before the off season. Don't you think that this was, if this was another team, they would be getting beat up more for the way this has gone down because they're going to move theoretically, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan and get no top 10 picks and no future All-Stars. in return. Isaac, you tell me, like, are Clippers fans, are they beating up the team for the changes that have been made over the past year? Yes and no. They're beating up on the organization right now as I am as well because of the loyalty thing that we just discussed. Like, you know, they hung his jersey in the rafter saying, this is a lifelong Clipper. And betraying him like that, I think that's bigger than I think the return. No one's really thinking about the return right now in

the fan base. The fan base is thinking about losing a guy who's the face of the franchise. the guy who made the clippers relevant for nine years and just trading him away like he was livestock. 100%. You know, like that is totally an appropriate thing to feel about the trade. But the thing is that they gain so much flexibility moving forward in terms of their ability to make changes in the free agent market, to be reactive in the trade market. It hurts so much to lose, Blake, but sometimes it's those moves that you need to make in order to have a brighter future.

Yeah, but who's the free agent we're trying to get? Are we trying to get LeBron? LeBron's probably not going to come to the club. Probably now. Call George. Who are we getting? Here's the thing. You're big on the return.

What is the return here, Kevin? I mean, you're talking about. Tobias Harris is a good player. Oh, come on. Good players, but you have no big time players that have you have got, you have nothing. What do you have to show for Chris Paul and Blake Griffin? They get a lot. This isn't just for Blake right now at age 28.

It's for four years from now. The deal is not just about the 2017-18 season, which is ultimately a lost season for the Clippers. They're not winning a title here and which is their goal with Jerry West now there, with still Doc Roo's as the coach. That is ultimately their goal. It's not just about this season. It's about the future. It's about more than the names that they're getting in return.

Okay, what? I'm asking you, what do they get for the future? What do they get for the future? They don't have shit. They get tons of cap flexibility moving forward. Oh, for God's sake. Because they dump a guy who's making a- $35 million.

I don't know who wants to go there. It's Los Angeles. There's not a lot of teams of cap space. Any team that has cap space moving forward will be in a prime position to sign star free agents.

Any team, because there are going to be so few that have it. So it's not like the clippers are going to be battling against 20 other teams to sign a max player. They're going to be battling four. All right, if they don't get a great free agent,

they got Danil Gallinari, that was great. If they don't get a great free agent, then how great is this flexibility that they have? Because you're big on always wanting draft picks. Everything's about the draft. They don't have anything in the... I mean, they got what, the 15th pick probably with this thing? And I would like to point out, it's top four protected,

the pick that we got from Detroit? Like, that's not... I don't know. It doesn't matter. The pistons aren't going to get a top four pick. I don't know. I was on tankathon.com last night, running those simulations, lottery simulations.

It only took a couple until Detroit popped up in the top four. Yeah, yeah. But I don't think they're going to slide down the standings. They're probably going to stay around the... the range they are, like 10 to 16 or something like that. And look, we talk every year. Like, Chris, you always tell me every year, who cares about the top picks? There's always great players to be had in that 10 to 16 range.

You're right. And now they're going to be in a position to get one of those guys. No, no, no, no, no, no. I don't tell you. I tell you that now great players are always available. In fact, there's like two guys left on their drafted team from 2009. Yes, and now they're going to be in a position to get possibly one of those guys in the draft. They are being proactive with this move, but now they're in a position to be reactive to opportunities that may present themselves.

They have moved Chris Paul and Blake. Yeah, they lucked out so much that Chris Paul and the Rockets had the foresight to do a sign and trade rather than Paul outright leaving. And you want to know one of the reasons why he was leaving because of Blake to get away from Blake. Well, then you move Blake. I mean, that's the answer. Yeah, but maybe you don't get as much during the summer as you did now. I don't know what would have been on the table during the summer. But the fact is that it sure as hell would have been hard to move a guy who was an unrestricted free agents.

You would have to really look out a perfect sign and trade with the particular team that he wanted to go to. And the only other one that he was having a meeting with was the Phoenix Suns. Maybe what you should have done is decided, hey, we'd rather commit to Chris long term. You know what they should have done? They should have blown it up two years ago. my God's what they should have done. Kevin Obama. Kevin Obama.

Kevin Obama. Hey. Right after they were on the fringe of the Western Conference finals. You're telling me right now that, oh, they didn't get enough for Blake. They ain't get enough for Chris Paul. I'm testing you because you are a big blow it up, blow it up. Okay. Now I'm looking at their, I'm looking at what they've gotten in return for Chris Paul.

And theoretically, they're going to move off of D'Andre, Jordan, and Lou Williams also. Okay? And so I get that Blake Griffin's last year of his contract stinks. The whole contract stinks. All of it. All five years stinks. Oh, for fuck's sake. Look at all the contracts in the NBA right now.

Dwayne Wade signed for two years, $47 million. Timothy Mazgolf signed for four years, $64 million. Nicholas Batum signed for five years, $120 million. Chandler Parsons signed for four years, $94 million. A lot of contracts think. You're right. There's a million of them. At least Blake Griffin's good.

I mean, for God's sakes. And look, You have now, if they move, and now if they move DeAndre and Lou, you're talking about Patrick Beverly, Harris, Montrez Harrell, Sam Decker, the 15th pick, some other side dishes. I mean, what are these great assets that they have gotten? Okay. They are fortunate that they got those side assets for Chris Paul when they could have outright lost him for Zip. Nata. Zero.

I'm going to laugh when they sign Avery Bradley to $25 million a year this offseason. And you know what? If they do that, it's a critical mistake if they do that. And so if he walks? I mean, maybe you have better alternatives. I mean, I do cringe a little bit when everybody is destroying the Blake Griffin contract when I just told you Otto Porter gets paid four years, $104 million and you defend it. I mean, come on.

Blake Griffin is at least a real, like he's a star level player when he's healthy. Porter's overpaid, no doubt. There's a million of these, though. You're right. All over the league. deal is not, when you talk about the albatross, it's the worst contract, and it's already a terrible contract, it ain't even one of the top 50 worst contracts right now. It's definitely in the top 50. No. It's definitely in the top 50. I could list you off. You forget very quickly,

as does everybody, that Bismagg-Biombo gets paid four years in 72 million, and Evan Fornier gets five years and 85 million, and Dwight Powell gets paid four years and 37 million. I'm not arguing that there's not other bad contracts. Alan Crabb is four years 75 million. I mean, there's a ton of these. That Alan Crabb contract is not that bad. What? It's not that bad. Four years 75 million for Alan Crab? It's bad, but it's not. Oh, good grief. Blake takes up a third of your cap space. A third. That's a significant difference compared to 15 to 17 percent like with Alan Crab. I think the point is that Blake's contract right now is okay, as Chris is saying. But it will be bad once his body starts deteriorating in a couple of years.

Which it already has. He's not jumping as much. He's so groundbound now. He's not as quick laterally. His first step is not as quick. And that has hindered his at-room finishing, which is a big part of his success throughout his entire career. I just, I don't know.

I saw him play in person last week. And I think people have gone way too far with the Blake slander. Way too far. I do. Blake's still really good. he's Amari Stademeyer at the end of the career with the Knicks or something. This guy is still the real deal. Amari Stottomire wasn't the injury prone guy when he first went to the Knicks.

He quickly became into that, though. And I think it was maybe Bill or Justin Barrier yesterday on the podcast, the emergency podcast that they did, where one of them mentioned that this reminds them of when Stottomier went to the Knicks. And look, Stottomier averaged 25 points per game and was an all-star in his first season with the Knicks at age 28. And then he just plummeted off a cliff. And that's the fear with Blake Griffin. It doesn't mean it will happen, but that's the risk. And that's why for the Pistons, this is such a risky decision.

But wasn't that the risk when they signed them to five years, $173 million? Yes. Six months ago? Yes, that was a risk. And what if everybody wouldn't have gotten hurt? What if Danilo Gallinari's not hurt? What if Patrick Beverly's not hurt? What if Austin Rivers isn't hurt?

And what if, right? That's something I alluded to in the article where it's like, making that decision was a significant risk signing Blake because it's possible that he could have had a more serious injury or it's possible that there would have been nobody would interest in Blake Griffin at all. And by the way, there weren't very many teams interested in Blake Griffin. Why are we sitting here acting like the clippers or some kind of, you know, Uber smart playing chess while everybody's playing checkers organization? And we got Danilo Gallinari who looks to be 275 pounds sitting on the bench and they signed an injury prone guy who doesn't even, but they just signed him who is a terrible fit by the way,

next to Blake Griffin. And if we want to sit there and kiss their ass for the return that they got for Chris Paul, so be it. But I look up and say, all right, you broke up a team of guys that are still capable players, two of which are two of the better players in the NBA. And I look around and go, all right, how are you building going forward? They're talking about moving DeAndre. They're talking about moving Lou Williams.

Obviously, the Lob City thing is completely over. and in terms of being set up to, unless you are going to go sign a big free agent with that money that you have cleared, I don't know, man. I don't know. I don't know why this is so great. Okay, I can't say for sure this is what happened at all.

You know, I don't think any of us can say that right now. But what I will say is this, with the Raptors blow it up debate that we had last year, one of the wrinkles in the conversation was, well, you can't do it this summer. you need to bring these guys back so then you can read and react the situation and maybe you blow it up afterwards when you have these guys under contract. So with Blake Griffin, they got their return instead of losing him for nothing having him walk to the Phoenix Sons. They lucked out.

They were fortunate that Chris Paul went into sign and trade rather than walking. Then with Gallinari, yes, it's not a great contract, but they got him in return for Jamal Crawford, who is also not a great contract. And he's a solid player. Gallinari is when he's healthy. So these guys position the team, guys like Beverly, guys like Galanari, now guys like Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley, allow the team to keep winning games, but they also now have flexibility moving forward. They've made risks in the past, but I like this move from now moving forward based on where they are now. Yes, they made risks in the past, Christopher. What plan does this follow? Just being average? That is literally the antithesis of

everything you believe in. No, it's not. Being average. We're not talking about the 2017-18 season. I'm talking about 1920, 2021. I'm talking about the plan in the future. And they have no great draft picks that they have gotten in return for any of this. So how does it happen?

The only way they're getting this high draft pick is by sucking. Whose fault is that? Why don't they have a top draft for any of these? Why aren't they drafting number one this year's draft? I want to know why it is? Because they waited too long. They waited too long to do it. So why I'm saying, why do you not think now, I'm testing your philosophy on this?

Why should they not just blow it up completely and be terrible so they do have a draft pick? Because they have gotten no high draft picks in return. In terms of being able to rebuild, you are banking completely on free agency and trade. Because they don't have, like, the best draft pick is what? You're talking about like maybe the 15th, maybe the 15th draft pick. The odds are heavily against you getting some kind of franchise change or there. You're right, the odds are against that. I'm glad we're on the same page with the highest odds to get a franchise changing player at the top of the draft.

Well, of course they are. Hey, I saw a ton of them last night in person. You're never going to believe this. Maybe I can go back and read your article about the bright future of the Phoenix Suns. They fucking suck. They got Alex. I watched Dragon Bender. Let me go back and read the draft profile that Kevin O'Connor wrote.

Dragon Bender had zero points in 20 minutes. Zero! Zero! Are we giving up on Bender? Hey, let me tell you this. A 20-year-olds, everybody knew Bender was going to take years and it all. Let's not give up on him. But no, I won't because me and him have something in common. We both could have played in that game last night and scored zero in 20 minutes.

You put me on the court. Actually, I might have gotten you two on a leakout or something. I watched a guy play 20 minutes of scoreless basketball. Like, what is the point? Okay, man. All right. But that was a great, but no, good for the Phoenix Suns that they tanked, because they got a ton of lottery picks and they're awful.

And they have nothing to bank on going for. Alex Lent stinks. They all stink, except for Booker, who they got late. And T.J. Warren, who they got late. I don't want to pivot to the suns here. But with them, your perspective may have changed if they pulled the trigger on an Irving deal last year. I'll just say that. If they had Irving paired with that young core, you might feel a little bit differently with the path they took.

And they didn't make their decision. But had they went down that path or in some alternate universe. Okay. I just saw their lottery about Marquis, Chris stinks, Bender stinks, Len stinks. These guys all stink. Booker and Warren are the good ones, and they were drafted in like the middle of the draft. I swear. I even like Eulis better than I like some of the other ones.

He was late. I do. At least he's tough. All right. How do you like this deal? Okay, so you hate the deal for the clifers, clearly. I don't hate it. I'm testing everybody that's now, for whatever reason,

the clippers have been the unbelievable receipts. of media fallatio like I have never seen in my life. Like it's like, bro, they moved Chris Paul, Blake Griffin. They're about to move Lou Williams, who might be the best bench scorer in the league, DeAndre Jordan, and the best rebuild piece they've got is the 15th pick in the draft? Okay, all right. They really think they can get someone in free agency, though. No, Chris, the best rebuild piece they didn't get is the 15th pick.

The best rebuild piece they got is cap flexibility and free agency moving forward in a climate where there's not going to be a lot of teams that have the ability to create max space for one or two-star free agents. When you have a team in Los Angeles, one of the capitals of the basketball world, yes, to the Clippers, but you're still in Los Angeles. If there is a better player on a better contract than Blake Griffin that they get with their cap space, I will apologize. Okay, all right. But as we know, these players are all signing crazy contracts. You know that, Kevin. We know that.

That's going to change. That's going to change. Okay. What do you think, all right? What do you think Chris Paul gets in the off season? You think somebody's only going to give him a couple of years? He's going to get years from somebody and everybody's going to look up at the end and whether it's Houston or whether it's anybody else and they're going to go,

oh, the end of that contract's going to be dicey. The end of everybody's contract is going to be dicey unless they sign one or two-year deals like LeBron and Durant are doing. I don't know what Paul is going to get. He's going to be 33 by the end of the season. I mean, he's not going to get a five-year max. I mean, listen, it's totally possible Russell Westbrook when he's getting paid $65 million. dollars in the last year of it.

Tell me about it. I'm saying that with every great player, though, unless they're signing short-term deals, there's going to be a risk with that, right? There just is. These guys now have the power. And there's enough teams that are desperate for really good players. So imagine my skepticism that the clippers are going to get a better player on a better

contract than Blake Griffin. I just don't. I'll believe it when I see it. So with the Pistons, they've lost eight in a row. You know, Reggie Jackson got hurt for them. They were fine before that. They're three and 12 since that injury occurred. They fell out of the playoffs.

And now they added Blake Griffin. How do you feel about the trade, Chris? I think it's a weird fit for that particular team. Let me just say that, right? So listen, I don't hate the deal for the clippers. Let me just go ahead and say that. What I do is I don't think it is some kind of grand slam. As I said, I think there's been a little overboard on the Blake Slander.

That being said, you look at the way he fits within the Pistons. And I do agree, I listened to what Simmons was saying last night about how Stan Vance kind of in that, I got to win right now. So maybe make a desperate move and attain somebody like that. I am open. I think it is only fair to see how it plays out. My initial reaction was with that particular team and the lack of shooting spacing that it appears they may have, it's a weird fit, right? I don't know if he's the best fit next to Drummond. I don't know if he's the best fit with Drummond and Reggie Jackson, who would clearly be your two best guys.

But I'm willing to see it play out. I mean, I'm willing to see it play out and see what it looks like. I do think that they will be better. I do. I think they will be better than they were, but I don't love the fit. I mean, either. I think for Stan Van Gundy, it's a necessary risk. I've heard that he's perhaps not on the hot seat, but he's sitting in the seat,

and Arn Tellam has his fingers on the dial to turn that heat up. So he's under pressure to make this team into a winner. they have a large payroll yet they're out of the playoff race loses of eight in a row and this this is this is a risk to really give them a greater upside obviously like we talked about you know with the clip in the context of the clippers blake ruffin is still a really really good player right and i'll be curious to see how his game evolves with the pistons will will stan van gundy do something that that dock rivers never did and that's really utilize him even more even more as like a pick and roll playmaker. Blake obviously racked up his system with LA, but something that he never did a lot of was play high pick and roll.

I'd love to see them do more of that, get some creative actions going with Blake Griffin. Maybe we'll see a new version of Blake when that happened with Stan Van Gundy. But on paper, for sure, the fit's weird. Blake's three-point shooting is way better than it was before, but it's still not great. So Stan Van Gundy's always been, you know, Mr. Spacing, You know, going back to his time with the Orlando Magic.

And now you have Blake, who's a average, below average three-point shooter, drummins who obviously can't space the floor at all. You have a handful of other guys on that roster who aren't great three-point shooters either. I don't know. I mean, it's a risk to really give them a chance at being better than they are now. But at the same, like, this could blow up in their face. I do think it's kind of interesting that Drummond's a better passers. than people give them credit for. I mean,

average almost four assists a game. So how does that work with those two? It'll be interesting. With each other because Drummond does not, he's not DeAndre. You know what I mean? For sure. DeAndre's not a pattern.

Drummond is actually a more skilled player, certainly in terms of you don't see a ton of centers. And I think that would surprise people if they don't pay attention much. Four assist a game is a really good number for a center. You're right. And that's going to be interesting. I want to see how Van Gundy plays

through his front court because I read a tweet yesterday. I forgot who put it up, but it was like a screenshot of their depth chart. And it was like, oh, that front court's looking nice, but that back court is terrible. And yeah, it's true. Like, their back court, Ishmith, Luke Kinnard, Lankson Galloway, you know, Reggie Jackson's hurt or Reggie Bullock, the Stanley Johnson. Yeah, there's just not a lot of talent at the one, two, or three. But they do have significant playmaking talent with Blake now.

and then Drummond is a solid passer for his role as well. So maybe when Fergie Jackson gets back, maybe if Luke Kennard steps up within his role, they're trying to get Rodney Hood. Maybe if they make some changes, this team looks a lot better than it did before. This is why I think that they will improve, is because I saw these stats yesterday,

and you want to talk about Blake Griffin's Lander, prior to the Blake Griffin's Lander, when Avery Bradley's name came up as a possible trade option, because that was already out there. there that they were looking to move Avery Bradley. When that came up, boy, the slander with him. I mean, I was seeing all the stats being passed around. Everybody on the team, like, had a better on-court rating when simply he was off

the court. His P.E.R. is 10. Ten. I mean, he has had an atrocious season. The numbers defensively are bad. The offensive numbers. I mean, and it has led people. people to go you know and I know Isaiah's listen he gets a little bit of a pass

because he's coming back from the hip thing and he's playing with the new team but people have pointed to as a Thomas and every Bradley and J. Crowder and these former Celtics like hey they don't look the same since they have not been playing for Brad Stevens and maybe Brad Stevens was the one that like he got more out of him he truly maximized those players and that they're not what they appeared to be

there everywhere else. And I don't know. With Bradley, a couple thoughts. His offense is way overrated. I mean, he's a good shooter, not a great shooter. Not a passer at all. Not the best decision maker off the dribble. Not the best at-room finisher.

He's kind of, I think his offense, yes, was aided significantly playing under Rod Stevens. As for his defense, all the advanced stats and all that, look, you know, yes, he's probably not as great as his reputation is in the regular season. He's an inconsistent off-ball defender. He's only six-foot-two with a six-foot-seven wingspan, so he's not big enough or strong enough to defend a lot of wings. He's really a guard defender. He's your guy that you put on a Kyrie Irving, a Stefan Curry. He's your guy that you put on those guards against, you know, Russell Westbrook, John Wall.

He is the guy that you stick on them and try to take the opposing point guard of the game. And that's where he's one of the best on defense. In the playoffs, when he is constantly engaged in grinding, and that's what you're getting him for. So I had a conversation with an NBA executive a couple weeks back, and he's like, you know, we always have to figure out how to weigh the importance of play. playoff data or playoff production against regular season data and production. And with David Bradley, you can take all the numbers from the regular season, from his entire career, and it doesn't change the fact that in the postseason, he's a higher level

defensive player who makes life hell for the star point guards that seemingly every team has across the league. There's a lot of star point guards. And that's where Bradley is just super, super important. So for the Clippers, will they keep him moving forward? We'll see what happens. But with him, you do have a guy who can become a curry stopper. For whatever reason, he has been awful in a Pistons uniform.

Offensively. And the defense as a whole hasn't been. Yeah, well, even the deep, like if you go, as much as you trust them, and obviously defensive metrics are truly dicey. It doesn't even matter, though. Like, it doesn't, because you're getting him for the playoffs. Okay, but this is what is true. they are better when he is off the court than whether he is on the court.

Look, man, on off stuff is so, there's so many variables, though. Like, why are they better when he's off? Is it because of him or is it because of he's only on when the opposing best players on the court? Well, you were taking out a net negative generally. I mean, he's just not, I mean, again, when your league average PER is 15 and he's a 10, I mean, there's just no argument for him having a good season. he has been bad. He's been bad. Look, defensive data is bad. I'm just going to say it.

Defensive data is bad. A lot of NBA people think defensive data is bad. And it's not just public defensive data that some NBA people think is bad. It's the proprietary and defensive data that a lot of NBA people think is bad. That's just the truth. Defensive data is not the most reliable thing. Offensively, it's true. I'm telling you he has had a crappy season and there's nobody from Detroit that is shedding a tear over losing him.

And that's why I think simply removing him from the, equation and adding Blake, who is a net positive player, will improve the pistons. That's what I tell you. Now, losing Harris will hurt. Maybe that's true. Maybe that's true. But it's not because he has a 107.9 defense. It is, so look, when Drummond is on the floor, he has a 108 defensive rating. When he's off the floor, the pistons have a 99 defensive rating. Does that mean it's Drummond's fault that the pistons are bad on defense when he's on the floor? And that they're, that they're, that They're great when he's off the floor. The Pistons Harris 108, Bradley 108, Drummond, 108, Jackson, 107 when they're on the floor.

When those guys are off the floor, Harris 98, Drummond, 99, Bradley 101, Jackson, 103. It's the lineups. It's more than just the players. I would argue that they are deficient defensively when Drummond's on the floor. For a guy his size, he is not a good defender or rim protector. You know, I mean, I think I do, I actually do blame Andre Drummond for their lack of defensive prowess. When Langston Galloway is on the floor, they have a 96 defensive rating dominant. So should Langston Galloway be playing 35 minutes per game because he's their best defender?

I do think Langston Galloway should play. I think there's a good argument that he should play more. No way. Because you know what? If you have Harris, Drummond, Bradley, all those guys coming off the bench, guess what the team defensive rating is going to be? Way higher than it is when they're playing at starters. On-off stuff, man. I used to use it like a ton, but talking to certain NBA people, like, it's just there's so much noise and so many variables with lineup data, on-off data.

You know, it's just not that valuable. Boy, I love, I love seeing you. I love seeing you metamorphosize over these last two years right before my eyes because you would have been the guy that would have used stats in order to declare something. And yet, you can't find one stat that tells you Avery Bradley has. been anything other than crappy this year. And now you are saying you can't just look at the stand. I led with saying that his offense is overrated because of this reason, that reason, whatever. That is where he is significantly overrated.

Well, I mean, I guess you could pull up that. You could pull up the synergy and you could find out how good he's been defensively too. Synergy. Oh, okay. I'm not going to knock synergy, but even synergy data is results based. Are you contending that there is literally no stat that we can pull to, to establish whether or not your defensive prowess is there. I'm not going to say that there's not,

but what I am going to say is that there's not anything that can perfectly capture defense in the way that statistics can with offense. Data is tremendous for offense, but for defense, not quite as much. Because look, with defense, like you mentioned synergy, I like synergy a lot.

So here's the thing with like synergy data, right? It's results based. So you can look at, for example, I pulled up Avery Bradley right now, how he defends spot-up shooters. He ranks in the 49th percentile, which is average. Opponents have a 50 effective field goal percentage against him, which is not great for Avery Bradley. You know, off screens, again, like he's average against those.

He's below average against isolations. But theoretically, in an isolation, opponents are shooting 12 of 23 against Avery Bradley. theoretically, how many isolations has he or any other player prevented a player from attempting a shot where they passed the ball and said, how many instances did he have perfect defense, hand in the guy's face, completely hindered his shot, and yet the ball went in anyway. It's a result-oriented stat when with defense, what's so important is the process, right? forcing guys into bad shots, forcing guys into the shots that you want them to take, taking away the shots that they want. So how do you accurately measure that with results-based data?

You can't. It's impossible. Here's how you do it. With the tracking data that Second Spectrum has for the league. So NBA teams could, I don't know if every team does this, but what a team could do is build data that is process-based, positional based, situation-based. That's where I think defensive data needs to go privately. Publicly, that's not going to happen because the data is not out there. But privately, that's where I think you can really get a better idea of who's good, who's not, who's overrated, who's underrated, who are the guys that should be playing more?

Who are the guys making the right decisions with the rotations? Who are the guys able to defend multiple positions more effectively? Who are the guys that can defend certain areas of the floor better than others? that's where I think the data can be better. And even then, even then, it's still not perfect, but I think it's better than anything we have publicly. Let's say there's somebody out there in the offseason that says, you know what, Avery Bradley is a star stopper,

and we've got title potential or we fancy ourselves as a team that could get there, and we need a guy like that on our team. And so we're willing to back up the Brinks truck in order to have Avery Bradley on our team. Avery's not going to get paid to Brinks Chuck. Okay, well, let's just, listen. What's he going to get? Nothing can surprise me anymore. I don't think he's going to get any more than like $17 million.

What? Yeah, there's not a lot of teams of money out there. Well, but the teams that do have money are, there's also not a lot of players that are out there. That's true. So, I mean, and you look across the board, if Evan Fornier makes five years $85 million, you don't think Gabriel can get $5.85?

It's a different year, though. I understand. But, I mean, even last offseason, look at some of the deals that were signed. And it was a lighter year, for sure. But now you've even seen when guys have re-upped. I mean, we just, listen, we started off this show today by talking about what? We talked about John Wall. John Wall, and we talked about Blake Griffin and the contracts they got.

Drew Holiday signed for five years, $125 million. Drew Holiday. Big mistake. Paul Millsat signed for three years, 90 million. Gordon Hayward signed for four years, $128 million. I mean, that's a... I get it, but I'm just saying there's money still flying. Auto Porter just got four years $104 million.

Would you rather have Auto Porter or Avery Bradley? Well, it depends on the money. What's Avery going to get? I can't even answer that question without knowing... Contracts are such a big part of the equation. We'll make it the deal going forward. So we'll take the year off of porters, and we'll say Avery Bradley gets...

3 and 80. I'd rather have Auto Porter for these reasons. He's more durable. He's three years younger. He's a much better shooter than even Bradley is, and he's bigger. I'd rather have Auto Porter.

All right. Fair enough. How about you? I don't want either of him that. Their price. I mean, I think the price is crazy. Like, I'm one that said the auto porter price is crazy. Yeah.

You didn't. Well, I mean, it is goofy. It is crazy. What I'm saying is like, he's giving them what they expected from him. You know, like, he's overpaid, but like, they're getting what they wanted. Let's say Bradley does get a lot of money in the, like a money that you would scoff at and you would think that the clipper should not do.

Okay. So if the return was Tobias Harris, let's make it, I think, I think they can get in the playoffs, especially after this wizard stuff. Me too. So let's make it the 15th, 16th pick and a second round pick. So you got Tobias Harris, a first round pick and a second round pick. And the Bradley rental till the end of this. particular season. Do you think then you would deem it worth it? You're just on the side of Blake's

contract sucks. So the return is not. Not at all. Not at all. That's not true. No. Blake's contract stinks. He's injury prone. He's scary moving forward. But that's the type of risk the Pistons had to take. They needed to take a risk on a potential big time player, a guy who still, look, Blake is a great player. I'm saying from the clipper's perspective, if Bradley's not a clipper. Oh. from the clippers. Yes. They're adding cap flexibility moving forward. And they still are a really good team.

They added two pieces who can help them win now. Tobirous Harris Harris is having a really good year, man. Really good year. Do you think they can get first rounders? Because that's what the rumor is they're looking for first rounders for DeAndre and Lou. You think they can get first rounders for those guys? I think they can get a first rounder for Lou Williams.

Lou Williams got a first rounder last season. Houston gave one up for him. You know, Bogdanovich, Channing Frye got a first round pick before. Kyle Korver got a first. What's Williams deal right now? I wouldn't... $7 million expiring, so he'll be a free agent this summer. Unrestricted free agent.

And then with DeAndre Jordan, he has an option for $24 million next season, which he could pick up. Boy, you got two of the best, what I would consider, best bench scorers in the world in Lou Williams and Tyreek Evans that are both going to be out there. Yeah. The one thing you worry about is do you, if there is the full intention with the team that they are going to,

to be able to resign said player, it then becomes worth more to them. But the worry is that these guys, if you don't get their bird rights and you're getting them, there is the legitimate possibility that you are just getting them for a rental till the end of the season. And you have no power in that situation. And I think teams might be very wary to give up a first rounder for that, knowing that we may not retain said player, is it worth a first rounder and foregoing that big potential future asset in order to have Lou Williams for the last three months or Tyreek Evans for the last three months? I don't know. That'll be interesting to see what happens.

I think Evans or Lou Will. That's a difference, right? They got a first rounder because Lou Williams is a, you had him. He was on a, I mean, that contract is obviously amazing for this year. I mean, seven million bucks for Lou Williams is clearly one of the great values in the NBA this year. Same goes with Tyreek. But those guys are both going to get paid in the offseason. Boy, if you lined all them up, Lou Williams, Tyreek, and Avery Bradley, maybe I'm wrong about Avery Bradley.

I don't know. I don't know what, you know? Aver's good. Aver's a good player. But now there's more, there's more guys that can play that position, I would say. than maybe I would have previously thought. Lou will get the most of those three. I may not.

I think Avery, because of probably age more than anything else in defensive ability, Lou Williams still stinks defensively. It does not scare you that Avery Bradley, and it is not just him, but others have not been what they appear to be in Boston? I mean, Avery is who he is. He's still the same guy.

He's... But he wasn't. He was good in Boston, and he was crampy in Detroit. Yes, statistically, but he's still the same guy. I mean, he's just not in the same positions he was before. He's a fine offensive player. You can say that about every freaking spur for the last decade, right? Once they weren't a spur, they went into witness protection.

Avery's a fine player, you know, he's good. He's not great, you know. He always leaves you asking for more. He's not the shooter that you would hope he is. He's improved a lot over the years in terms of hitting, for shots, but he's still not a guy who can, like, drain, you know, high degree of difficulty shots from three. Avery's at his best when he isn't asked to do a lot. So if we roll the back, and I ask you again about DeAndre and Lou, you think they get first rounders? I think you can get

a first rounder for Lou Williams, but if you're the clippers, maybe you'd rather push for the playoffs than just take it first and cash out. And then for DeAndre, I'm confused on what's going to happen with him, Chris. I am. I think you can get a first for him, but at the same time, Like, you need, I think you need more than that for the clippers, unless, like, you really are just willing to cash out and just really go all in an opening cap space. Because DJ has that player option for $24.5 million or somewhere along those lines that he could easily opt into if he doesn't see the market out there to get the type of long-term deal that he wants. I wonder what kind of, hey, there's another one.

He'll get a deal and you're going to go the end of that contract. Yikes. No guarantees. And I'd like to say that these crippling contracts would have stopped two summers ago, but they just haven't. We just saw George Hill signed for three years, 57 million before this season, you know, that was risky, which is the same deal as Jeff Teague, which, and then, you know, I mentioned the Drew Holiday, five years, 125 million. What's that going to look like in years four and five? I know Drew's having a good season, but obviously, God, I feel so terrible for them.

We have not gotten to comment on that. almost nobody comes back from I know the sentiment was he'll come back better than ever I know this guy and whatever with the boogie injury nobody comes back better than ever that that injury is the worst one you can have and obviously I kind of lived it with with Mario Chalmers here um you know we've seen west Matthews West Matthews was one of the best two-way guards in the entire NBA yeah Rudy gay um I I the first one of the first one I ever dealt with was Dorel Arthur, who's actually ended up having a very good career because he's a skilled guy that can knock down elbow jumpers, right? But he's not what he was a super athletic guy first in the league, and that just went away. And I know that, you know, the good thing is that Boogie doesn't get by

on athleticism, but I have, that broke my heart when that happened. I don't have a bunch of cousins jerseys or I don't have a lot of stocking in, but he has a great NBA. character and I just know that that injury is so, so bad, so bad. Boogie, he's one of those guys who, you know, he has a lot of color to the league. Like, he's a vibrant player. He makes the league more exciting having him in here. He's such a unique, unique player on the court, off the court, you know, such an interesting

story with him as well. Boogie's one of my favorite players in terms of the story of the game, you know, this era, this decade of basketball. So it's sad that that has happened because he's a guy who relies so much on explosiveness in terms of his first step and just powering through guys. And he's so aggressive on the court. How much is he limited when he gets back? Boogie, if he comes back 75% of what he was, that's still a really, really, really, really good player.

But you need Boogie at 100% if you're the Pelicans with Anthony Davis. moving forward. And that's, looking at the history of Achilles. That's scary. Very scary. Well, hopefully, boogie gets back soon.

And hopefully we see Detroit get Blake Griffin in uniform. He won't be on tonight when the Cavaliers take on the Pistons on T&T, but Blake should be playing for the Pistons later this week. Verno's phone dropped out, so I'm not able to say bye to him.

But on behalf of Chris Vernon and myself, thank you for listening to the Ringer NBA show. Be sure to give us a rating on iTunes, Stitcher, and wherever you listen to your podcast, and we'll be back next Tuesday. See you later.