The Ringer NBA Show - The Play-In Pressure Index | Group Chat

Episode Date: March 17, 2024

Justin, Rob, and Wos start with the wild, drawn-out ending to the Lakers-Warriors game and what needs to be changed about the current replay system (4:00). Then they take a look at the teams in the play-in race in both conferences and discuss how important it is for each team to make the playoffs (11:45). Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Producers: Isaiah Blakely and Tucker Tashjian Additional Production Supervision: Ben Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In a world where coaches are still the main characters, the players are now legally chasing the ultimate bag, and the game of basketball is always the top priority. There was only one brand you can trust to help you wade through all the madness. Hey, I'm Tate Frazier from One Shiny Podcast, and you can join me twice a week as we navigate the always entertaining world of college basketball. Every Monday, the ringer's comment helps me make sense of the biggest stories from the weekend, and on Fridays we talk to our many friends of the program. We're locked in on the best postseason in sports. Make sure you follow OneShining Podcasts on Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Group Chat.

I am Justin Verrier and joining me, as always, Rob Mahoney, big Was, the spirit of the Irish is among us. Wazz, this is your holiday. Yeah, big holiday for me, New York City guy, which means I've been in very close proximity to Irish people my entire life. I couldn't tell you what they eat, but I do know what they drink. So shouts to everybody who's having a pint of Guinness today, you more than deserve it. Yeah, Was, this is your holiday now throwing to Rob O. Mahoney over here.

I'm wounded, Justin. I'm really wounded. We'll get the soda bread flowing here. Here we go. Now we're talking. That's the only thing I know. I actually used to live in the Irish Channel in New Orleans. And so there was a whole parade system because they'll throw a parade for damn near anything

that used to go by my place specifically on St. Patty's Day. So this would be the day where I would be getting the hell out of my apartment. It's fair. And looking for a safe haven anywhere. But before we get into today's stuff, I have two topics at hand here. One is dumb and one is very dumb for you guys. Even better. Which one do you want to start with?

Let's go progressive. No, no, we got to go progressive. We got to ease into the dumb with the regular dumb. Okay. I was thinking about this this morning as we came on. Is three a group chat? You're just now asking this? Yes.

Like, do you guys have any three-person group chats? 100%. Yes. I do. Really? Yes. Okay. I do not.

I look at it more as a one-to-one or like a seven-person. situation. Oh, no. Seven is unruel. Anything over five, we're really getting into too many reactions, too many jiffs, too many messages. I got to mute that thing. But three is a great group chat size and a great splinter group chat. Once you get fed up with the real group chat, right, side group chat with the three people who really matter, aka us. Right. Breakout room. Breakout room. Yes. Break Okay. I was just wondering because, you know, like, what quantifies a group? Is it three? Are we meaning the criteria?

Okay, what is dumber than this? Listen, one to one is just a regular chat. Anything besides that is a group chat. Agreed. Okay. I just want to make sure that we're up to code here. It's just, think about it, Justin. You and a lady friend are a couple.

Just whatever. If you add a third, you're no longer a couple. you're something completely different. Once you add that third, you're changing the dynamics of the chat or the relationship. It's hard to argue with that. I got to be honest with you. All right.

So that was the first thing. The second thing, how the hell do you play two minutes of NBA basketball over 23 real minutes? Good God. I'm obviously talking about the end to Lakers Warriors in which there are two reviews that took what seemed to be an hour, but apparently didn't take as long as it actually took. And then the shot clock just malfunctions. They don't have a backup. We got Lawrence Tanter, the PA announcer, saying the shot clock seconds over the loudspeakers to finish that game. And what was an otherwise pretty interesting, LeBron versus Steph Till, how the hell did we?

get here, Rob? Look, the review replay system is broken. Chaining them together makes it so much worse. And then really the variable here is the clock issue. Like, that happens in some of these games. It's not the first time we've had a PA announcer have to do the clock address over the loudspeaker. But the way in which it all rolled in together, I get why LeBron is slamming the ball on the floor every time he has the opportunity. And ultimately, it led to the anti-climax. So when the Lakers finally did get the ball, Steph poked it away. and basically ended the game immediately. So all those 23 minutes

and the 10 years I aged within them were for not. I've been saying for at least six, seven years now, that replay is unnecessary. It serves absolutely nobody to get these calls allegedly perfect. Just breaking up the flow of the game so we could look at dudes and zebra costumes just staring at a monitor.

And Mike Green just tries to fill air and be like, bad buddy hasn't left yet. It's like, come on, guys. Like, who are we serving with this? I don't know who's actually being served. And I can hear people saying, oh, it's the gambling people. They want it to be exactly right. I don't think having a toe on the line is going to dramatically alter these freaking

betting lines and props and all the stuff that people do. I just don't believe that. And nobody was crying for this before. No. We went through decades of great NBA basketball with no replay, and it was just fine. People had great enthusiasm for the game. The athleticism could be on display, and we could just rock and roll. I don't know why we need to do this.

The first one especially wasn't even a challenge. It was the automatically triggered shooter might have a foot on the sideline review on what was an incredible LeBron 3, and I thought a pretty borderline call, like as close as it gets. in terms of his heel being on that line. Why there is an automatic trigger for that review, I do not understand. Like, let the refs call that in real time. Well, this one was different.

I think they had a challenge the other way, and then they went back and erased the LeBron three. So, like, time had elaps between, I think it was like 17 seconds or something since LeBron made the three. So actually a play occurred. Someone, I think, stepped out of bounds. It was challenged.

Or Wiggins was something with Wiggins. and then they went back and erased it. So, yeah, so actually I don't understand why they are allowed to even go back that far into the past to do so. Those plays are subject to review under those circumstances. Like they can retroactively take away the basket. And it would have happened at a stoppage in play, I believe even independent of that Wiggins review. So it's like real, what are we doing here territory when we're going back in time to take a three off the board in what amounted to crunch time of a really competitive game. Yeah, I don't think you can get away with taking out review entirely.

I think we've gone too far one and two, and I think I've said this in the past. There's just like, there would be too much consternation and discourse about the calls that get wrong. See, I think you need something. Last two minutes, that's it. That's it. Last two minutes, it's allowed or it's not allowed? Last two minutes, you can review stuff. Yeah. Like, if the people in C caucus or whatever, First of all, the three-point thing on the line, have those people in New Jersey be like, yo, actually, that was a three, and then just added in throughout the game. Do that. What are those guys doing? How are they not just on the ball immediately?

There's like seven people in those rooms. Their door dash was at the front door. They were out there, like, they didn't care of it. They don't even worry about it. The guy couldn't figure out the intercom system, so they had to actually go to the door. Yeah, no, do that. That's cool. And any challenges?

All right, you guys can get one challenge each. coach last two minutes of crunch time, but like a dude's foot being on the line with six minutes left in a freaking game, you know how much time that is to actually decide the outcome on the court? Like, I don't, I don't get this at all. And JJ Redick talked about it on the broadcast too. Like there's a point in these reviews where even as a player, you're like, can we, I don't even care anymore. Can we just move on? And you can, you got that energy from everyone on the floor from Steve Kerr. Like, they were just ready. to pick up and play again, and we're in minute 17 of the review cycle.

Also, and here's my thing where the league office, silver and them, I feel like are too sensitive to the internet and a specific subset of the internet. No normal NBA fans are complaining about this. The type of person who would actually make us think about this in a public way are people you should be paying absolutely no attention to anyway. So that's why I'm just like, who is this for? Yeah, I do think if we got rid of all of replay, people would just complain about everything. And then like there would be calls about all the fixes in, yada yada.

Daryl Morey would be giving out book reports every game. Here's my idea to just like split the difference. What if you put a shot clock on the replay reviews? Because right now they can go as long as humanly possible, as long as they need to. What if you put 24 seconds? As soon as they get to the monitors, you have 24 seconds. If you don't figure it out within that, it doesn't matter. No.

Who are you Amazon? Like, what are you talking about? It's like the warehouse workers on the clock. Justin wants like a gamified version for the refs. Oh, quick fire. Yeah. Yeah. It's like, yo, you got to make this freaking, you know, omelet within this a monitor.

of time and then the countdown and they're like oh oh my god and Justin wants the refs to be miced up during it in there glancing at the clock was the time and no no no no just cut down the amount of times we do this man I'm just thinking like just make it as

as limited as possible yeah like because they're not going to get rid of it entirely let's just diminish the amount of time that they actually have why why can't they they're willing to get rid of things on the fly all the time that is the thing with silver these days. I feel like I hear from him every two weeks trying to

fix this or that. It's just like we actually don't need a hoop idea every week just to fill out content in the NBA. I mean, this is Rich coming from the guy who just tried to change the name of our podcast because we didn't have the requisite number of people for a group chat. Hundreds of episodes in, thousands

of episodes in. You know, I just want to make sure we have buttoned up. You know, we don't have replay review, so we have to do this on the fly. I guess. Anyway, all right, let's segue now to our task at hand. So coming out of Lakers, Warriors, a lot of play in magic, we'll say, is happening around this time. Seems like both fields are probably going to be set.

At least the teams are going to be in it, but we don't know who's going to fall into the play and who's going to make the big boy playoffs. So we're calling this the playin pressure index. So which team has the most pressure on them to get out of the play in, to actually make the top eight in the NBA. And to do so, we're splitting each conference into tiers, three tiers. And in order to do so, I have to ask, are you guys familiar with the Coldstone Creamery sizing?

I don't even know what to call it. The portion, like the three separate sizes at Coldstone Creamery. I'm glad you called this out because this was my first thought when I saw it. So mission accomplished by you, Justin. Okay. So as has been made famous in an Aziz Hansari sketch, the three sizes aren't small, medium, large. It is like it, love it, and got to have it. Which Aziz famously mentioned is some real crackhead terminology, I believe, is the specific quote there.

We're going to appropriate that. So instead of like it and love it, we're going to do want it, need it, and got to have it. got to have it being the most pressure they need to make it. All right. All right. I mean, it's relatively straightforward. Many questions, but I think they're going to come up along the way. Right.

Like what really on a human level? What is need, Justin? Hmm. That's where I'm coming from. I feel like I'm really in the pocket these days with the bits. I got to say. If there was a podcast about our podcast, they would be like, barrier colon leap question mark that would be on the

tyron right now well as an as an editor you know the rule if there's a question mark in the headline what that means that it could be whatever you want no that the answer is always no if there's a question mark in the headline the answer is always no that's true that's true um so let's start in the western conference just because we're coming off of lakers warriors uh i have two teams in each tier you guys don't have to follow that but starting with got to have the team

in the West was that have to make it to the playoffs out of the playing. Like who is number one for you? I mean, look, you got Phoenix Suns here and I agree with that, but it's only based on the fact that their ownership has so obviously made it clear that they are all in right now with this group and to not even make the big boy playoffs with all the money, all the trade capital that has been spent trading for Bradley Bill unnecessarily. Like, they have to, at the very least, make the big boy playoffs. Just they have just, they've shot their Watt at this point.

And so to not even get that far to flame out in a playing would be disastrous on a monetary level alone. And so, yeah, I would say, Phoenix is absolutely up there number one. Got to be there. I mean, they're expensive in terms of literal payroll. They're also really costly in terms of all that opportunity, all those trades,

all the players and draft picks out the door. For all of that to even get them in the play and mix, I think is already not great. And if the result is that they don't even make the playoffs, things are getting real serious and real dark really quickly. But this is what happens when you align a bunch of players

with injury histories. We've finally crossed the 500 minute threshold for Beal and Durant and Booker together on the floor. Congratulations to those guys. For comparison, James Harden didn't even get traded to the Clippers until a couple games into the season. Harden, Kauai and Paul George

already well over a thousand minutes. That's like a fair threshold. And yet we're just inching over 500 for these guys with a worse net rating than that Clippers trio, for example. Yeah, so I have it as 527 minutes for Beale, Katie, and Booker. 8.8

net rating. Pretty good. Fine. Solid. Listering off the charts. They're 16 and 10 in those games. So they are a better team than what the record would show. But they are currently, as we record this, sixth in the Western Conference, because the

Kings, unfortunately, of course, had a great game against the Lakers, followed it up with a bit of a stinker and a slug fest against the Knicks last night on Saturday. And so things are trending in the right directions. By the way. It's true. It's true. I mean, I think we have to pause here, though, to talk about the Mietch play against the Hornets. I mean, how could we not? I don't know if you guys saw that. You even had K.D. afterward kind of tipping his hat. I will say this, I'm talking, of course, about Vasily Mietch just dropping KD on the baseline there with a killer crossover.

Maybe stumbled a little bit before that, but who's actually asking? I mean, legends Tipped their hat to legends. This is a manslaughter crossover, but okay. I will say, Mietch on the Hornets, doing some stuff.

Take note of that. All it took to really get you on board was him getting traded to the Charlotte Hornets. I want you to really think about that, Justin. I was always on board. Were you? The Hornish just saw something in him that the Thunder did not.

I mean, that's clearly true. But yeah, so earlier this week, I think J.J. Reddick was making a stink over how we don't appreciate Kevin Durant. I have to say, I find myself, I really respect J.J. Redick. I think he's very sharp on a lot of different things. I find myself disagreeing with him almost entirely all the time on most of the things that he says. His whole point was like, don't get caught up in the all the off the court stuff, the Twitter stuff with Katie. We need to appreciate him. I got to be honest. I think I appreciate him. It's been pretty good lately. We appreciate him a lot. I appreciate that. I think, but I don't think what he's saying is completely unfounded. I think there's a general apathy towards KD's biggest accomplishments because of the context of those accomplishments.

Let's be real. Like people saw that team as a cheat code and had no real challengers. And so they basically sleptwalked their way to two championships, which would have been a third if not for two catastrophic injuries. So I think rightly people look at those accomplishments and shrug their shoulders. I don't think. And post OKC, he hasn't really done anything since. Like, he hasn't done any post-OKC if you subtract the warriors stuff.

If you subtract the most successful period of that tenure, yes. Yeah, but guess what? He was going to conference finals and finals and all of that stuff with OKC. True. He hasn't done any of that. since he's left the Warriors. And it hasn't been close, by the way. You know, it's first round exits.

It's, you know, losing seasons to injuries. It's a shoe size against PJ Tucker maybe. Like, there are some borderline seasons there. Sure. He did this to himself. That is my thing. That's what I'm saying. He chose to go to Brooklyn.

He forced to trade to the sons. Like, I think he's individually been incredible and he gets his deserved like plotts for that. Just like he's made some bad choices in terms of, of like the teammates that he wanted to and then to do it over again in Phoenix like I get it to a certain extent but I mean we we killed LeBron

for like maybe not or other players other than LeBron for not like prioritizing winning like it seems like KD was looking for something else which is a personal choice and like you know the good and bad comes with it. Yeah I don't think any of us are mystified as to why the conversation around Kevin Durant is the way it is. It's more

when you zoom out and like we're getting into all NBA season right now and we're going to have to decide is Kevin Durant a first-team all-N-Ba player or not, and you look at the numbers, you look at the crazy efficiency, if any other player was having the kind of season he's having, you know, 28 a game on like 50, 40, 85 or wherever he is now, if Anthony Edwards was having that season,

he'd be no question first-team all-N-Ba. The conversation around it would be totally different. Granted, some of that's like where he is in his career at this point. We've already seen Katie be this guy over and over and over again, wildly productive, wildly successful, in various contexts. But he does get a bit of a raw deal in terms of when it does come time to look at him as a basketball player.

People are kind of bored by it or they don't really want to dig into what makes him great or they don't want to talk about, you know, oh, he has a really good defender on top of all these other things. He doesn't get the nuanced basketball conversation that other stars do sometimes. I think he is a little bit more boring. And if you want to make the case that like he's less of a celebrity than Steph and LeBron and maybe he gets dim. for that. I can believe that, but

I tend to think the other stuff is just like online ephemera and just bullshit that goes I don't. I think the online stuff, I just think there's an indifference to KD because he just hasn't provided dramatic moments for people

to latch on to. There's no drama. There's no intrigue to anything KD has ever done. Like, again, they ran into some friction that great series against Golden State and then he went to the Warriors and it was literally three years of zero friction, zero inch. There was nothing to latch on to.

And then ever since then he hasn't been, like, yes, that really decrepit Brooklyn team that he kind of put on his back and almost got it done, that was a nice, dramatic moment in the second round of the playoffs. And that's it. That's it. He's like, there's nothing there, right? Like, there is no, you know, you know, Steph in 2022 or all these other guys that have done stuff just delivered these moments. KD has not.

It's all, yes, he looks great in the regular season. Oh, he's so efficient. Oh, it's so cool and calculated. Oh, he's so good. Blah, blah, blah. But guess what? When it really counts, we have no memory of KD doing something memorable in a dramatic moment. There's just nothing there.

This is a bit much. Since 2016, Rob, dramatic KD moments in the playoffs. Where is it? I'm not saying those Warriors teams were going to lose to the Cavs in the finals, but when it came time to deliver big shots, it's Katie stepping up on the left wing

hitting a three over LeBron. Like he was delivering in those sorts of moments. They beat them eight out of nine times in the finals, Rob. What are we doing? Sounds pretty good. Eight out of nine times they beat that damn team. Sounds good.

What's wrong with that? Intriguing. There's no drama to it. Everybody watched it. It looked very easy. That's true. It just did. There was nothing strenuous about what KD did out there.

So people understand like, KD ain't never done nothing that interests me. That's how people feel. I get that. Everything that he's done at the highest level was easy as hell for him. What's not easy is some of what goes on for Phoenix at times. And we saw this last season after the trade where Durant and Booker already had to generate so much difficult offense for themselves.

And now you have a similar thing going on where, yes, the role players are better. Bradley Biel, when he's healthy and on the court, changes the complexion of that. But he still has to manufacture really tough stuff. Rob, I hate to do this to you. Do it in the playoffs. I hate to do it to you. Do it in the playoffs. I agree with you.

Then do it in the finals. Then do it again. No, no. I'm not using this as a defensive Kevin Durant just to say that that is what this team requires, is him to take and make difficult shots. And we'll see if he and Booker and Beal can do that at the requisite level to overcome the limitations of the supporting cast, what they aren't on defense in some matchups,

and like what their health is on a night-to-night basis. I will say the formula that they need in order to go far in the playoffs seems to be in place, which is to outscore other teams. And I think Royce O'Neill has kind of fit in there pretty seamlessly. So, but I do have to wonder now that the league, is not not cracking down on scoring, where they released a memo in which they said that they weren't actually doing something,

but actually they are doing something about it in order to suppress at least a foul drawing, just machinations, just like the kind of driving into players and trying to get to the line sort of stuff. Do you think classic Friday news dump, by the way, that was just, m'ma, chef's kiss. Rob, do you think like a team like the sons

that needs to rely on all, offense to beat teams, is at risk at all here if they're going to be looking at those things a little more? Yeah, I think it's something we already are cognizant of with playoff basketball, right? When the game tightens up, when there's a little more physicality, who benefits and who doesn't. And usually jump shooting teams are the teams that take a bit of a hit, that have a bit of a deficit from just the normal regular season to playoff shift. The fact that we're already seeing this over the last couple weeks, really month or so of the regular season, a clear difference in the way the game is officiated,

it does cost Phoenix some. They really have no other recourse but try to outscore teams. They can be competent defensively, but they're never going to lock you down. They're never going to be controlling matchups with their size. So what are they going to do when they aren't able to supplement all that jump shooting

with getting to the line on a consistent basis, which is something Duran and Booker have both done at such a high level this season. If that goes away, even for a game or two, in a play-in or a playoff series, that could be game over for. the Suns. Yeah, I think the only

sort of diminishing factor or diminished factor of KD Post not ACL Achilles has been his drive game and in the regular season it's generally fine, but I

think in the playoffs, I think against Brooklyn and Tatum and all of them they made it really hard for him to put it on the deck and get to the rack with regularity and be efficient. And so KD specifically at his age, I think that's definitely something to watch.

If he's going to get to the cup, off the bounce, you know, in critical moments, that's going to be the determinative factor of if this offense is a lead or not to me. Because, yeah, they're going to generate a bunch of jump shots and it's going to be in tight moments and tough moments. And not everybody, but like, Grayson Allen, might not be his money in those moments, right?

some of their best, most reliable guys might not be as money. And so they're going to need something that isn't generating those shots. But, you know, KD, that's, to me, that's the thing that he's been most diminished by his injury. It's getting to the rack. So we'll see. Time will tell. So this memo that they set out, I got to say. So first of all, that this was kind of already out there before the league acknowledged it.

Our friend Tom Haberstrow did a really good job of kind of pointing this out. a few weeks ago. I have to say, like, on the one hand, I'm glad that we got here. I'm glad that the league took action. On the other hand, it gets back to what we were talking about before, where I feel like Adam Silver is just always doing stuff.

And, like, I'm constantly caught in this way where it's like, I appreciate the spirit of what he's doing, that he's like, he's constantly trying to create the best product. It's like, I feel anti, like, progressive. If I'm like,

no, NBA stuff. But then, like, on the other hand, I'm like, I feel like I hear from Adam Silver more than my family members about things that I don't totally care about. It's just like, he's constantly changing things in a way that, like, I do appreciate football to a certain extent where it's real like Bill Belichick, just do your job. Just do your job. This is how it is. This is how it's going to be. And that's just like that's what you come to expect. It does feel like we're like recycling through things very, very quickly all the time. Well, what's the alternative, not fixing what's a clear problem?

This is an example of the good, yes. But like, he's always tinkering and tweaking behind. It kind of creates this sense that, like, the NBA isn't as good as it should be when it's like, as opposed to projecting the NBA is great. Let's keep it great, you know? Oh, yeah. We're really, really walking the line on that one today. I guess my issue is less with the fixing of the officiating, which needed fixing.

like the level of contact that was being allowed or really not allowed by defenders who are trying to maintain legal guarding position was unacceptable and leading to a bad product. But own that and own the reason for it, which is you are trying to get scoring and check. And you don't have to do all these gymnastics and retch your back with all the contortions that you're doing,

Adam Silver or Joe Dumars or whoever in the league office is representing these rules, trying to really gently explain that, oh, we're not trying to bring scoring down. We're just trying to fix these root causes. guess what the root causes have led to this scoring explosion everyone wanted it rained in even the offensive teams weren't always like we're kind of sick of their inability to defend other teams like it wasn't suiting anybody the way the NBA was being called so i think this is a net good a net positive

if it has to happen in the middle of the season so be it i would say fix it sooner than later and i'm glad it's rained in even this degree i obviously am for this measure i was like you guys sick of the 145 points in the regulation of a freaking Hornets game. It's like, guys, the Hornets should never be able to score 140. Like, it's just no way. With Mietch, though. Right. Yeah.

And Trayman in the same back court. I think, obviously, I think this was the right move. But it's very often with Adam Silver's just process and messaging is always just nasty. and I just think the league needs Adam to go be a bag chaser. Like, go out, get the checks for the league, its partners, and his players, and they need a basketball person who has a measure of power and influence. Because I just think it's not that Adam doesn't love basketball. I just don't think he's a basketball person.

I think he's a business person, which the league needs somebody in charge of his business. But some of the basketball stuff just becomes a little bit clunkier in its execution because I just don't think Adam has an instinct for it. So this comes, like, it comes out with like Jody and Shouts to my man Ethan Sherwood Strausserlson pointing this out, like months ago snitched on himself. Nobody was even asking. He was like, no, we're not like going to do anything to change the, like officiating of the foul. Like, no, we're not like, he went out and said that before anybody notice, and then, you know, of course, the files go down. Like I said, I'm happy about this.

I was sick of the crazy scoring. I do think it should be way harder to draw foul. I think the way they call the fouls has a compounding effect in the sense that now defenders are all-laying guys right to the damn rim, right? And so we need this. And guess what? In the playoffs, they do this anyway. They cut down on all of this.

nonsense anyway. Let's just make this a regular part of the product. All right. So we're 30 minutes into the podcast. We have one team. Whose fault is that? You came with the dumb stuff and the dumber stuff and the tangents, Justin. I put my finger squarely at you. We're recording this an hour earlier and I have than we typically do. And I have to say, I'm just completely out of sorts here. I feel like, like, you know, when you go back to the past, like in back to the future, you change one thing and everything is in disarray. Yeah. Like, you can, go an hour earlier for me and I'm just like I'm I'm all over the place. Justin having the body clock of a college

sophomore is hilarious to me like he can't be up at 9 a.m. and ask to function. It's hilarious. I'm a biodome man. It's just a very like controlled environment. All right. So I'm got to have it. I also have the Dallas Mavericks who we talked about at length last week. It's just like they're all in on this team. Yeah. And so like even in comparison to a Lakers or Warriors like I would put the Mavericks here. because like I appreciated the game yesterday, but any Steph LeBron tilt is going to be fascinating to me. And if anything, them at the end of their career is just like trying desperately to like drag

Tayshan Prince across the finish line to get them to the playoffs is like even more kind of interesting in certain ways. Torian Prince. What did I say? Tayshan. I mean, effectively it's not so different. Is Tayshan an assistant on one of these teams?

Oh yeah. That's what I meant. Yeah, yeah. He's his assistant. I was talking to Kyle Mann about Kentucky. Yukon. He mentioned Tashon Prince yesterday, so he's on the brain probably. But for me, I kind of feel like

the Lakers and the Warriors know where they are at this point. And like it seems like LeBron is even alluding to this fact that like, they know that they're not really up to the level of some of these other teams. And so like, if they didn't make the playoffs, I think it would be a calamity to a certain extent. But on another level, it's like it's now the expectation

that they might not. And so is it really that much? So I have them on a lower tier. Yeah, that's where I'm trying to understand the tier system because LeBron does got to have it. Right? He's got to have it. What else are you playing for if you're LeBron or Steph at this stage in your career,

but to try to make at least the playoffs and be as competitive as you can. And yet you can't understand at least, at least from my view, trying to make sense of your system, Justin. If the Warriors don't make the playoffs, it's not like we're doing a referendum on Steph Curry or who the Warriors were or are. Like we understand that team and its accolades and its credentials. we all understand how good LeBron is. Maybe there'd be some reconsideration

around the edges of AD or Darwin Ham or DeAngelo Russell or some of the other characters involved. But I feel like a lot of these teams do got to have it. But to your point, maybe none more so than the Suns and the Mavs. Because we don't talk about the Mavs in the way we do the Suns as far as the draft capital.

But this is the reality. They owe their 2024 pick to the Nix. Their 2027 pick to the Hornets. The 2028 swap to the thunder, the 2029 pick to the Nets, and the 2030 swap to the Spurs. That's not quite as bad as the Sons

who have like everything out the door already, but it's not all that different. Yeah, but see, where I disagree with you guys, I think the Kings absolutely need to get out of the plane. You think they got it? You think they got to have it? Yes, 100%. They got to have it.

Because of the age of this team, it's a young team. Y'all made the real playoffs last year and to take a step back when everybody's expecting all of your young pieces to be taking a step forward

and that you wouldn't even get out the play in this year. That would be a disaster psychologically, in my opinion, for the Kings. And so to me, they're a team that needs to be in the real postseason just for the trajectory of where they're going. Because if they don't make the actual playoffs this year, like what are they?

off season. What are they trying to do? Are they trying to add? Do they move on from certain things? These are very hard questions to answer. So to me, they absolutely have to be got to have it, got to be in the postseason. The Lakers, you know, LeBron, yes, he wants to win, blah, blah, blah, blah, which even that, I kind of question how, like, thirsty LeBron is for just like purely winning championships at this point in his career. But more importantly, Jeannie Buss, Rob Polinka, you know, Linda Rambis, they saw the they saw the roster at the trade deadline.

They didn't lift the finger. So they just don't care. Like it's obvious that they don't really give a game. Linda was really advocating for Dejante Murray. With the Kings, I could see it one of two ways where it's like

they were born in the darkness, so returning to it. No. It might not be that much of a departure. One playoff experience in 17 years. Like, they got to make it. They got to have it? They got to have it. With a team that's, and their roster is good.

Like, with a team that's this good. Yes. They categorically need to make it. Justin is saying, like, listen, these people are used to hamburger helper. They had a nice dry age revive last year. They'll easily go back to that hamburger help. That's not how it works.

They don't know what they're missing out on. No, I mean, if anything, I think they have probably a longer runway than some of these other teams because they're so young, because their core, like, is under contract for so much. I mean, I know they have to deal with like the link monk in the future, but like, to me, I see them as a team that could really like make a move in the off season, hit the ground running next season. I know it would be disappointing not to make the playoffs, but like, at the very least, nothing really materially changes about this franchise for me if they make it or don't make it. I think it changes for the people involved. Like, that momentum is a real thing.

And if all of a sudden you just have a blip where you don't, you give a pretty solid season and you don't even make the playoffs, that takes a toll on people. And it may not result in a huge roster shakeup. I think where I disagree is their team isn't that young. They have, you know, they have some guys like Keegan who are clearly on the up and up, clearly developing, clearly going to be better. So bonus and Fox are this is, they're kind of in the meat of their careers right now. A lot of their contributors are kind of in the meat of their careers right now. Compared to LeBron and Steph and KD, these are. I agree that they don't have to go anywhere.

They don't have to blow it up. Fox. Fox is still young. Look, I agree with your ultimate premise, which is next season, it's a very important season for the Kings. Between internal development and hopefully making a couple of little moves on the perimeter to shore up some of their limitations. But I think they got to be there. This is as important a season for them as any of these teams we're talking about. There's not the existential threat of a, if we miss the playoffs, does Luka want to leave kind of

conversation like there is with Dallas or all the picks that Phoenix is invested. But for the trajectory of that team, they need to make it. So how would you separate the teams into the tiers? Kings, Mavericks, Sons absolutely got to have it need to make the big boy playoffs. Lakers, I move them out of that middle tier and into want to make the real playoffs. but as evidenced by how they treated the trade deadline, as evidenced by their ownership floating LeBron James trades, okay, they don't care about the now.

They just don't. They haven't operated that way. So if they do something nice, it'd be cool. The Warriors I'd put in that same bottom tier. And we haven't mentioned New Orleans, but I would say yes, they need it. And I guess New Orleans is the only team in that middle tier to me. that kind of sounds right.

Honestly, I would hear an argument that New Orleans is kind of a wanted team too. I know they have more to prove and that's a hungrier franchise and those are young guys who want to kind of hit that next level. And so I see the value of that. But I don't know that there's like a ton of urgency there. Like that's a team that still has a lot to figure out too. I think because they've been so good of late, I think taking a step back, I think then it would get pretty dicey.

And that's why I have them in the needed tier. like at a certain point, there needs to be a result from the Zion era. And like he hasn't played a minute of postseason basketball at this point. And so for him to kind of seemingly taking the leap, there I say, over the past few games, they've been kind of incredible to the point where like, I've been waiting patiently for the bottom to fall out. And I thought it was going to fall out against the calves when they lost that game. But then they came back against the clippers.

They won last night. And so seems like they might have gotten their shit together. If they were to take a step back at this point, then I think the disappointment would set in. You start to see here just talk about like, what do we do here? Yeah, I know it's a cardinal rule of this podcast to not trust the Pelicans, but they are more trustworthy than basically all of these other Western Conference teams we're talking about, which is crazy. But that's the air that they put themselves in. They're deep enough. They're talented enough.

They've been competent enough on both sides of the ball. I'm operating under the assumption that the Pelicans are going to hold on to the five seed. And a lot can change quickly for this team, as we know. but they're mostly healthy right now. They keep winning. And that feels like pretty bad news for the clippers, to be honest with you. If the clippers stay in four,

and the clippers have gone one and three against the Pelicans this year. I don't want to underplay playoff Kauai or the impact of all that. But all the cute small ball stuff the clippers do, the pelicans just mash it up. I don't know. I still like the clippers in that matchup.

I thought the clippers are very much in the game on Friday, and the clippers didn't have James Harden. I still wonder, like, the pelicans have rebounded at the point where I'm just back to some of the old questions I had when I thought that they were going to be very good. And let's just point out right now, the pelicans are on track to have the best record in the Pelicans era. So post-hornets when they flip to the adorable bird with the blood red eyes, that's 48 and 34. And I think there's a possibility considering the way the Clippers fuck around in the regular season and as

these injuries mount that the Pelicans might jump them for four. They're only a game in a half back right now. Ultimately, though, I do think, like, defensively, there are a lot of times where it's like, I would love to have Trey Murphy on the court, but actually, we need another ball handler because I don't trust Ingram and Zion. And so, like, I need C.J. in there and, like, oh, well, like, I need to be bigger, but let's like, oh, man, Valchunis, I don't know if you can keep up with some of the smaller guys over there. And so, like, there's still, like, a lineup janga to their ultimate form that I don't think they've hit. They've obviously been good. But I think the Clippers probably win that series, if not handedly, then decisively. I wouldn't be

so sure. Like that matchup is handling a series decisively. It's really not in their DNA. I can't see that. Yeah. It's true. But I think it says a lot that they do have that lineup, Jenga. This is a really good, really deep team to the point that there's like three guys on this roster that are not in the rotation that would be playing serious minutes

for the Lakers or something like that. That's where the Pelicans find themselves. And so those are the good kinds of problems. That's the kind of Jenga you want to be playing. even if it does come with some complications, series to series or matchup to matchup. Yeah, and I'll say this. Watching Zion, like, svel for him, Zion is just a whole other beast.

Like, just the way he's able to get from point A to point B, just even on the baseline where it seems like he's trapped. And he does that sort of, like, defensive end sprinter off the block sort of just jolt and all of a sudden he's at the basket is incredible. So I'm glad to have that back. and you can see like just what an advantage him being able to move freely really gives them.

And so I tend to agree. I think I'm looking at the Pelicans a little differently now, but I still have them in the need it tier along with the Lakers. I have the sons and the Mavs and got to have it. I have the warriors and the kings and want it. That's how I split it up. Man, I think we're feeling the sacramenta.

Raise and age. Wow. Okay. We'll say. Should we flip to the Eastern Conference now? We must. I mean, I guess if we have to. Yeah. Let's do it.

This one was a little harder, but maybe also easier because I think everyone seems to be in the same tier, unfortunately. We might need to invent a new tier for the bottom of the Eastern. Even if you didn't want it, you're getting it anyway, tier. I guess I want it. Yeah. I mean, the heat very much and they got to have it tier, if only because they're just at that level as an organization. Unfortunately, just like, slide. and back as soon as we're ready. The East Coast Pelicans, basically, they lost, they had lost four

straight before they won one the other night. It was Dallas, OKC, Denver, but also lost to the wizards in the mix here. Here's my concern for the heat overall is that the offense is just still muddy, even with Roseir, even with some of the upgrades that they made there. And it's not much, so overall, they're 22nd in the league in offensive rating. And even with Jimmy on the court, So when he's playing, they would only net out to 16th in the NBA. And so on the one hand, all the same things we said about the heat going into last year's playoffs still exist. On the other hand, it's just like at a certain point, logic and like what we've seen

over the course of an 82 season, like it has to probably matter. But they're pretty much like around where they were last year. They do make generating quality offense look awfully hard sometimes. you wish they had a way to get into stuff easier, but some of that is who they are and how they play and the mechanisms of their offense and what they do to kind of overcome the shortcomings of the role players on the roster.

It requires a little more orchestration and movement and coordination that can be a little stodgy when it's not working. I just wish I knew who the most relevant players on this roster were going to be. Speaking of lineup, Jenga, if you had to bet, we are about a month out from the playoffs,

And I think Miami is really, they're not at risk of falling into 11-12. Like the East is laid out completely differently than the West is. Or sorry, 9 and 10, I should say. For them, it's about like, can you get to 5 and 6? Can you lock yourself into a certain position? They are a playoff team. When the playoffs start, who will be starting for the Miami Heat?

I think Rozier and Jimmy and Bam are pretty much locks in that lineup. But is it Duncan Robinson and Nikolaovich? Is it Robinson and Caleb Martin? Is it Hero who hasn't played in three or so weeks and one of those other guys? I don't know what to do to start. I don't know what to do to close. I don't know that Eric Spulster does, but I do know I could probably trust Eric Spulster to figure it out,

which that goes a long way as we're kind of unpacking what the heat can be. I'm not that worried. You don't want to put yourself in a play in predicament because it doesn't get mentioned enough. Like a guy could tweak your ankle, you know, a guy could. tweak his finger, just any freak injury in a one-game elimination sort of situation, you just don't want that. But I think the defense obviously is solid. To me, Terry Rozier has just been, it feels like he's been trying to buy into this,

I have him to fit a role, and he's really trying to do that. I think it's a detriment to what he has to give offensively. You want him to fit out? he's been muting his offensive. I want him to fit out. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I want him to go Kev Love on the heat. I want him to more aggressively hunt his shot

because I think it's something that this team is sorely lacking. So I don't know, man. It's hard for me to get too worked up and worried about the heat. I think they'll find a way to be the best version of themselves when it really counts. And they will find a way to be the most. most annoying team possible for their opponent.

They seem to do it every freaking year. So I have confidence that that will ultimately prevail. Now, the Sixers, some of these losses, man, it's not even just that they lose. They get housed. It's really crazy. That's who I'm really afraid for. Eight and 13 since Joel's injury, that puts them in the same sort of range as the Rockets and the Jazz in that time period.

I think that's about what they are without Embed. Tobias has not been good. Like, it's really just a mash unit. They're trotting out there. And, like, they're basically soft tanking at this point. They find themselves in seventh and they're sliding down. As Rob kind of alluded to, like, I think the slide stops at a certain point. It's hard to get into the Bulls and the Hawks range.

You really got to work for it. Yeah, the Hawks in particular. But, you know, I don't see much for this team if Joel comes back. And so at a certain point, like, that, like, limits what they could do this season, what seemed to be kind of a breakthrough season for Embed and the Sixers. On the other hand, like, maybe it lowers the expectations because, like, what can they do if he's not going to play? Yeah, where does this put them in our tier system?

Because to me, like, that reality of, it's pretty clear what happened here. And it's one of the best players in the league has been hurting on the shelf and they've been atrocious without him. It feels like a wanted team to me. Like, if they make it great. If they don't. Who would point the blame at anything other than bad injury luck? Like, that's really what happened.

I think if they would have played way better without Joelle, then we'd be like, oh, this is a got-to-have-a-te team because they have so much to play for. But that they've been so putrid. And I mean, it's been bad, guys. I don't think any of us thought they would be this horrible without Joelle in there. One of the least watchable teams in the league without Joelle and beat. Like, awful to watch. period. And so, yeah, this is a wanted team. It's just like, even if he comes back and he comes back and y'all at a 10th seed and everything is riding on this man and his freshly repaired knee to carry y'all through to the real post season, come on, guys. That's crazy.

So how bad is it that the 76ers are, as you said, awful? And yet the Pacers would love to have Buddy healed back in there just for a taste. Just for like one day. to relive what they used to have because it has been sludgy in Indiana pretty much since he left there. Tyrus Halliburne has not looked right since he's come back full time from the injury. So since January 30th, he's shooting 31% from 3. The Sixers offense, or excuse me, the Pacer's offense has managed to be sixth since the healed trade, but they're 23rd and three points attempted, 22nd and 13th. three point percentage. Ben Matherin obviously out for the season as well. And so all of a sudden, the brilliant, just like exciting, thrilling offense that everyone was expecting from this team

kind of hasn't been there. And actually, it shows you how good they were at the beginning of the season that they think they're still second overall in offensive rating. But lately, they've just been pretty mediocre. I mean, sixth isn't mediocre. Six, well, in this offensive environment, they're very much like a also ran. They're not like blistering teams. They're just like they're fine. Yeah, but clearly something's not right with Halber and clearly something's not right because they need to be one with the bullet for this team to offset on the defense. I will say the defense has been better of late.

So there has been some balance, but like nine and seven since the trade deadline. Like they're kind of just one of these teams where it's like, yeah. Yeah, they're not playing to the extremes quite so much on both sides of the ball. Like they've come come toward the middle on offense and defense. The heel thing is real. And he wasn't even having a particularly great season, but. His impact on the spacing, on the threes that they get up. Defense is absolutely have to treat him like a shooter.

And it's a small thing. But the way he screens or like fake screens in blurring by Tyrese Halliburton allowed Halliburton to get up more threes. And so when you're thinking about why does Halliburton look different? The injury is a huge part of it. Like he looks different pushing off of that leg. He also looks different because their offense flows a little bit different without guys like healed in there.

And they're still figuring out. how to use Pascal Seaccom most effectively and how to accommodate for the fact that Ben Matherin isn't out there all the time. Like there's been a lot of small shifts over the course of this season and they haven't gotten their footing from them yet. I still think the Pacers are a good offensive team

but there's no question they're a more complicated one than they were in November and December. The Halley injury to me is number one because before the injury, he was playing like an MVP guy. He was playing like a first team all-Nbasket. no-brainer guy, like, which is just insane to think

that they traded for this guy. And since he just hasn't been at that level, I think if he was still fully healthy, they would find ways to make it work without the same level of shooting. Like, this guy is so creative and so dynamic. I think they'd be getting by just fine, but obviously he rushed back from the injury

because of the 65 game rule. That's a fact. because he's got money to play for with these postseason awards affecting the future salary. And I don't think it's served his overall game. I just don't. Now, let's be real. If he would have took the proper time off, in the meantime, they'd be losing these damn games anyway. True.

Okay? So that's just the reality. But he just go look at his efficiency on shooting post-injury and before the injury. before this guy was a machine of whatever type of shots you want. He even became a master of that in between, you know, being in the paint, that floater range. He mastered blistering people from three point range. Like it was amazing. And now he's just like kind of good at that stuff, if not bad at threes now.

So, yeah, I think the injury is mostly to blame here. Clearly the Pacers still have a longer runway. like they set their team up at the deadline to move forward. And so to a certain extent, maybe this should be expected. They're trying things. They are finding themselves in the lobster goldfish range. I was talking about the Kings last week where it's like,

oh, they're trying to find balance, but maybe they haven't struck it just right. And if anything, they could just sign Heald again and bring them back over the off season. They have that capability. We'll see if Heald wants to do this, see if they want to reprise that, especially with Matherin,

they're presumably healthy next season. you wouldn't want to just step on his reps. But for now, to me, they seem like they're trying to make the most of what is left of this season. And so, like, I put two teams in every tier just for the hell of it. But if you wanted to put everyone but the heat in the wanted tier, including the magic in the bulls and the hawks, I wouldn't argue with you. I think that magic should have high expectation for themselves, honestly.

Okay. Yeah. They've played so well. I feel like they're slightly ahead of schedule, honestly. Their young guys are looking amazing. And so, yeah, they should want more for themselves. And they want to see how their young guys react to a postseason environment, man. Because, again, the regular season is what it is.

But once the best teams are game planning for these guys and poking at their weaknesses with a fine point needle, like that's where you see what these guys are actually made of. And again, it's not just, so it's not just how they respond to that. It's like these guys are going to now go into the offseason, knowing exactly what they need to do, who they need to be in the biggest moments, man. And I think that kind of stuff propels you. You know, certain guys never get to see the postseason.

And, you know, they put up these great numbers on these terrible teams. And they never build these great winning habits. And so that's why I think it's important for Orlando with their young core to get to the postseason and be put in that position. They've extended the coach, you know, so they're like, yo, this is a long-term thing, but let's accelerate it even further

by putting ourselves in the big boy postseason. Yeah, that's why to me, Orlando and Indiana both are needed teams, but need it in a different way than we've been talking about for everyone else. They need it developmentally speaking. Yeah. For Orlando, two playoff appearances in 11 years,

this would be the first of the Palo Franz era. I'm psyched for that. Like, I'm psyched to see a team that defends this hard that wins ugly and knows how to win ugly. I know they have limitations and deficits in terms of like shot creation, but I want to see what they could do with the latitude of playoff basketball.

I want to see the way that they mash people up. And it would be definitely be disappointing given how good they've been this season if they didn't make it. I think that they and the Pacers have that in common. They both had such high points if they fell all the way out. That would be a pretty tough blow

for teams that are trying to get it together. and trying to level up. And I think both of them are just flat out good enough to get there. You sound psyched. Am I not allowed? No, I think it's great. Everyone needs to have things that they love in life.

Rob Justin and Sir Rudy, the three biggest magic fans in NBA media. I just want them to have some new experiences. You know, I think often about there's that famous clip of Kyrie Irving asking Mike Miller on the first day after LeBron came back and the building is going nuts.

It's the first game. And he's like asking Mike Miller bashfully, is this what playoff basketball feels like? And Mike Miller's like, my guy, it's game one. Absolutely nuts. They don't know. You know, like, they don't know what the competitive environment is like. They don't know what's going to be asked of them.

And to your point was, they can't know where they need to be and where they need to go as players until they feel it for the first time. So I want to see both these teams go through that. And it's a different experience to get waxed by the Celtics in five games in a first round series

versus maybe even hosting the Knicks for three, four games in a first round series because right now they're in fifth but they're right behind the Knicks for four. They could theoretically climb. They do have the Raptors and the Hornets up next. So by the time

we podcast next even, they could be in that four spot. So you're right though. They have done enough this season to fall completely out, probably puts them squarely in the need it. So the way I have it sectioned off because I did two teams per tier, I have the heat and the Sixers and got to have it, if only because of just like,

this seems like they're working on the assumption that Embed is coming back. So for that, they, I assume the expectations rise there. The Pacers and the magic and need it and then the bowls and hawks. Yeah.

And want it. Because nobody knows what to do with those teams. They probably shouldn't even have that play in game. We should just completely not allow them because they don't deserve to be in the playing. The Hawks are 29 and 37. And they're like a default to make the play. They're not even really in jeopardy.

Yeah, the Nets just don't win games anymore. But it's Vietcrati season in Atlanta. Like, that's where we are. And yet, they're going to be a play in team. We're going to have to watch that game. I guess, look, the big question for this bottom tier to me is, is the East bad enough that the Hawks can lose enough games to move up in the draft odds while still holding on to 10th place?

And the answer is almost certainly yes. Like, they could leapfrog the jazz into 9. or eighth in positioning or whatever they are. They're locked. They're three games ahead of the Nets in the lost column. No, four games ahead, excuse me, in the lost column. And the Nets, the Raptors, the Hornets, the Piss. These are teams that just don't win games anymore. They're done with winning games this season.

So the Hawks are locked into the 10 C. Hornets made their win now move too late. You think what you're saying? Should have got in on Poku a little earlier. Yeah, exactly. All right, I think that's it for us. Unless anyone needs to do anything or they got to have something else here. I mean, the Bulls are technically involved, but we talk a lot about the Bulls already.

I will say, thank goodness that Kobe White's injury does not seem to be all that serious. I don't know if you guys saw that. It was a really scary, like leg got wrapped under him as he fell kind of play. officially diagnosed is just a mild hip strain. So dodged a bullet with that. Like that could have been

really, really bad for a guy who's had an amazing and impressive season and I would hate for it to go out like that. So the Bulls are a team that I like the way they compete.

I like the way Kobe White plays. They're not going to go anywhere in this play in. But you're happy for those little things. Yeah. What's the like the ewing effect where you lose ostensibly your best player

but you just become like slightly better? Is that what happened to them? I think that's the Ewing effect. Isn't that literally the Ewing theory? So you're saying that's exactly, like you take off. Okay. I'm talking about degrees here.

It would be like if you lost like, like, Lual Dang and then all of a sudden you're just slightly better. Who is the best player in this metaphor? Well, based on the marquee, it was Levine.

Oh, your most popular player. Yeah, yeah. I don't disagree with that. Although, yeah, takeoff is certainly very generous to what's happened to the Chicago Bulls over the back half of this season. Might be 500 by the end of the season. Shout to them.

34 points. You know where 500 gets you in the Western Conference out of the play in. And yet, by the grace of the east, they are entrenched in that nine spot. It's nuts. All right. That's it for us. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely on production. We'll be back on Wednesday.

We'll see you then.