The Ringer NBA Show - The Playoff Matchup Draft | The Corner 3

Episode Date: April 12, 2019

We preview the 2019 NBA playoffs by drafting the series we’re most excited to watch, including intriguing stylistic matchups like the Rockets and Jazz, talent-heavy lineups vs. up-and-coming teams like the Sixers and Nets, and hotly contested new rivalries like the Blazers and Thunder. Hosts: Kevin O’Connor, Danny Chau, Jonathan Tjarks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, it's Liz Kelly, and welcome to the Ringer Podcast Network. Season 8 of Game of Thrones begins this Sunday, which means binge mode Game of Thrones makes its long-awaited return, with your resident experts Mallory Rubin and Jason Concepcion guiding you through each episode. And to get your fix every Sunday night, Chris Ryan joins Mallory and Jason on Talk the Thrones, a Twitter after show recapping each episode throughout the season. So make sure you check out the binge mode podcast on Apple or Spotify, talk the Thrones on Twitter, and for even more Thrones coverage, you can head to the ringer.com. Finally, it's the NBA playoffs. Go check out the ringer.com for everything you need to prepare for the postseason, which starts on Saturday afternoon.

We have NBA desktop. It's back from its hiatus with Jason and Tepsione talking about Magic Johnson's departure and previewing the NBA playoffs with Zach Kram on the postseason and so much other content from Dan Vine, Jonathan Charks, and everybody else. on our website. One note, today's podcast, we had an audio issue. So the first 30 minutes of the podcast, my voice will be from over the phone. But the end of the podcast is normal, pristine quality, but just wanted to note that before we get going. Welcome to the Ringer MBA show. This is the Corner 3. My name's Kevin O'Connor and live from Ringer Studios in Los Angeles. Springer Associate editor, Danny Chow. It's lonely without you, buddy. I know, I'm missing you, man. I'm home in Boston right now, but hopefully back soon. But also, like you, on the line

of Dallas, we have Ringer staff writer, Jonathan Sharks. What's up, guys? I'm already preparing for our steak dinner. So me and Kevin O'Connor, we won the NBA Ringer Winspool, which means we're about to get some expensive steaks. Yes, Bill did mention on the Winspool that we

would be going to this place called Spaca, which has four money signs on Google, so definitely dropping some expensive stakes. Yeah, how much could you pay for a bottle of wine at a place like that right. Let's get real. We do have to celebrate exciting season, but finally, it's

playoff time. I've been looking forward to this for way too long now. We're recording this at 12-12 Eastern time on Friday, so you'll be able to hear this ahead of all the games starting tomorrow on Saturday. And today we're going to be previewing the postseason and not talking about the draft at all. We'll save that

for next Wednesday. As normal, we have heat check on Monday, the mismatch on Tuesday, the corner three will instead be on Wednesdays, and then group chat will be recording on Thursday nights. The people need more KOC, back to back. I'm looking forward to that. That'll be fun. Anyway, guys, so let's go through all these matchups,

starting with the most intriguing series to the least intriguing series. And we'll pick the series in this order, Danny, Jonathan, and then me. So, Danny, you're up. Let's get going. Yeah, I'm really fascinated by this Rockets Jazz series. You know, we have the two hottest teams in the league entering playoffs, two of the hottest teams, at least. The Rockets are 20 and 5 in the past 25 games. The Jazz were 18 and 7.

Yeah, I feel like this rematch of last year's second round series is kind of a put-up or shut up time with Rudy Gobert. You know, you watch him and you're like, oh, okay, so when is he ever going to change who he is as a player? Do you want him to? And how do you think he will fare this time around? I think Gobert, to be fair to him, Danny, has gotten a little bit better at stepping on the perimeter.

He's a very deserving defensive player of the year candidate this year. He may very well win the award if it's not Yanosant to the Kumboh. With Utah this year, I think it's largely going to come down to how does that perimeter defense operate against James Harden and Chris Paul? Because if you remember in last year's postseason between Utah and Houston, it was Chris Paul that really gave the Jazz defense such trouble. He averaged 24.6 points with 6.2 assists. including 41 points in that serious clinching game 5 victory.

Oh, just iconic. So this year, they're without Dante X, I'm your favorite player. Royce O'Neill is going to be the guy primarily defending James Hardin. I do wonder if they have enough bodies for both Hardin and for Chris Paul, if it's more so maybe the perimeter and less so maybe Rudy Gobert. I want to give Danny credit for not picking Toronto or Lial No, 1. I know you wanted to do it. Thank you for showing some restraint.

And I like Utah. I love Joe Ingalls, but man, I cannot say I'm terribly fascinated by this series. I just don't see it. I just don't see the way Houston's playing right now, their style versus Utah is a bigger versus smaller team. It fits to me watch a series like eight times in the last three years. And it always ends the same way, right, with the spread pick and roll team being the bigger team.

How can it be different this year, though? Is there something that Utah can do? Because I'm fascinated by the idea of teams replicating what Milwaukee did. against James Hardin, where they had Eric Blentzo and George Hill, among other defenders, just shading Hardin on the left side, constantly forcing him to his right, which took away some of his off-the-dribble left-handed passes. It made it harder for him to effectively get to his left hand at the rim. It took away the step-back jumper to his left as well. And I wonder, will teams do what Milwaukee did? Because I think Utah at least has the guys who can do it against him.

Chris Paul is different, a different type of player, but against Hardin specifically, I don't see any reason not to shade him to the left with Royce O'Neill and funnel him towards Rudy Gobert. I think for sure they'll try it. And we'll see the Hardin has the counter this year. He has that floater he's out of his game. I think that could have huge dividends only in this series going forward. That's something really to watch in this series,

is that little game within the game. Right. How can they make it interesting, though? Recently they've been putting, I think they've been having Derek Favor's rests for the past, what, like five games. I think he played a game. in Denver, I believe.

But in those games where he's been out, I think the Jazz have kind of been fine-tuning certain lineups where you can play kind of a four-out system with Gobert Manning the middle. They've either been starting Jay Crowder or Tabalcephalosha at the four.

And some of their most effective lineups are those types of lineups where you have Donovan Mitchell, Royce O'Neill, Joe Ingalls, Jay Crowder, and Gober all on the floor at the same time. And I wonder if Quinn Snatter is just kind of making sure he has enough reps with these smaller, more perimeter-oriented lineups to test for the Rockets. I could see that and then I could see Houston going the next step and playing those PJ at the five lineups.

That's what I really want to see in the series. I think for Houston, it's all about Golden State next round. It's those PJ at the five minutes. It's there's other perimeter guys. So, Danny's favorite, Daniel House, Austin Rivers, Ammon Shumpert. these guys were not here last year. I think can those guys be a little more versatile on offense than your Ariza's

Mabamutees? And that could pay huge dividends not only here, but going forward. In terms of lineups, it seems like we're all in agreement for Utah that the best move is to bring Derek favors off the bench, which is something they did do during the regular season. He came off the bench six times during the whole season. Three of those games were against the rockets.

Are we all in agreement for that for Utah? Like you said, Danny, it seems they have been preparing for that? I think so. Favors has been very, very good this season. His rim protection numbers are amazing. And you wonder if you bring him off the bench, you play him in that second unit, if that might force the Rockets to stay big,

stay playing a guy like Neneh or Farid. Animal. Yeah. No, exactly. I think for Utah, it works both ways where it helps your starting lineup, bringing him off the bench, but also it could force Houston to stay big

or it makes it a more challenging, a more challenging decision for Houston to decide to go small as you suggested sharks. But either way, regardless of what Utah is doing on the offensive end of the floor, I'm concerned about whether the Jazz can generate enough points against this Rocket's defense. But there's one positive indicator looking at their regular season games this year. The Jazz attempted 76% of their shots either at the rim or from three against Houston. And that's a really strong shot distribution, especially against Houston,

which is usually pretty good at forcing teams into shooting mid-range jumpers. The problem is, it's in those games. Utah shot only 32% on spot-up threes compared to 37% against all other teams, and only 19% on off-the-dribble threes compared to 33% against all other teams. So I am wondering, John, does Utah have enough weapons on the offensive into the forward to continue generating those open shots, but actually making them? It's all about Donovan Mitchell. I mean, I remember it's all going to come down to him.

I think Gwengen was interesting doing to watch. So Houston's been starting Paul Hardin Gordon. Can Mitchell attack those guys enough to force him to play some of their other perimeter guys as starters? And he had that one game in last year's playoffs. He had like eight or nine assists. Like he has to have to play that kind of all-around game. He has to kind of be a superstar at the Naina and a chance to win the series.

That was the game where a lot of people who, you know, just watched Donner, Mitchell occasionally. We're like, oh, wait a minute. He can pass. He can pass. You know, and I think, you know, he's not a past first player by any means to score for his point card through and through and he always will be. But when he does want to turn that on, I think he has displayed the ability to be a playmaker going back to his time at Louisville. It's just not his primary strength. Right.

But he is going to have to activate that, Danny. Yeah, I feel like it's also complimentary to the games that, you know, Joe Ingalls loves to play. You know, he is kind of a past first type of player. And so they, even though there is no basically traditional point guard in that starting lineup, you know, unless Ricky Rubio comes back and assumes that role, I think the jazz starting lineup at least can match up pretty well with the Rockets. It's more a matter of once, yeah, once the Rockets make those adjustments, how did the Jazz respond? Could the Jazz go even smaller? No, I'm going to go there. Like, instead of playing favors behind Gobert, maybe just go like Thabo or Royce at that.

the five with Tucker, and just go crazy. Let's see some adjustments to jazz in the last two years, one and nine against Golden State and Houston's second round. Like, Quinn Snyder, don't mean, make some moves, man. Try different things. Okay, so we're saying Tabo, J. Royce O'Neill, Ingalls, and Mitchell? Yeah, if they're playing Tucker of the five, why not? You're wild charts.

But to your point, though, you do have to try something here because what you've been doing has not been working against them. I think for Houston, they've changed some things since last year. I'm not sure if it's advantageous to Utah or not. Houston does not switch as often as they did in last year's postseason where they switched virtually everything. Now they're, you know, it's more of a hybrid scheme where they'll switch PJ Tucker with certain matchups, but they always try to keep Katskapella in the paint for at least for as much as possible. In this year's matchup, I do wonder if maybe there's ways Utah can try to get Houston to

switch more to get Capella out of the paint and opening up those driving lanes for kickout passes and layups. Do you have anything else in the series, Danny? They're your number one. I think why I'm so fascinated by this is just I want to see the jazz evolve. I want to see the next step of Donovan

Mitchell. I want to see the next step of Gobert stepping out in the perimeter and showing he can defend out in space. But ultimately, I think the Rockets have this. What's your prediction for games? How deep does it go? Rockets in five. How about you, John?

John? Yeah, that's why I was surprised Danny has number one, honestly. Rockets at five. I'm Rockets in six. Let's move on. John, you're next. Blazers Thunder, man. This to me is the series of the first round. I'm excited. There's so much on the line for both these teams. You got Russ and Dame one-on-one. Russ has been quote-unquote busting that ass for years. Let's go, man. I'm really excited for this one. So what done that to me, like, looking at the big picture. So Portal has lost 10 straight playoff games. Going back to 2000. They got swept by the Warriors, swept by the Pelicans. I think the lot lost the last two against the Warriors three years ago. And then Russ has won three playoff games like Kevin Durant.

Both these guys are great players, superstars, prime with their career, a lot to prove. Let's go. I like the numbers. They've actually guarded each other the most of any player in the entire league this season, in terms of a number of defensive matchups on the other guy. And I look, and I wouldn't look at NBA.com, Russ had the real edge of the 101 matchup and OKC's 4 and 0. I don't think. Of course, the other thing, too, is Paul George. He absolutely killed Portland this year. So Paul George against Portland, 38 points, 10.5 rebounds,

5.5 assists on 46% shooting. And the big question, focused now, is he healthy? Because he's really tailed off in the last month the season with the shoulder injury. Yeah, we've talked about his falling numbers quite a bit on a couple of our shows here. It's not shooting the ball quite as well from a three. His defense has not been at the same exact level

as it was before. And he's even talked openly about some of the shoulder issue pain that he's had during games and how he's had to manage that. That's a big question moving forward for Oklahoma City. And that's why I'm wondering with this team, Danny, is OKC closer to the team that was led by that MVP candidate in Paul George and an elite defense? Or are they closer to the sputtering team that we've seen as of late? Yeah, that's kind of what I'm worrying about.

I need to see Paul George, you know, in tip-top shape to have much confidence in them as a Western Conference Finals contender. I just have that very stinging memory of his last game against Utah last year in the first round just ringing in my head. And I'm just like, I can't get over that. So I need to see...

Well, also, because last year, when he started the playoffs, he looked amazing. It just petered off even during that one round. Yeah, I mean, with the team transitioning into the postseason here, I was thinking about this matchup specifically while reading Zach Cram's spectacular piece today on the ringer about how recent regular season results have no correlation or very

small correlation with the results in the postseason. So for Oklahoma City, it's not as much the results that matter entering the postseason as much as the health of some of these guys, particularly Paul George. And the same is also true for Portland as well. Right now, I'm feeling I'm more disappointed. I'm more angry than I ever was before that Yusuf Nurkich got hurt because what a brawl it would have been. It's cool that we're going to get Ennis Cantor versus Steve Adams. Like, that's cool. That's great.

Is it, though? Yeah, it's like not because Cantor can't defend anybody. If you remember Cantor, this is a series, what, two years ago, last time he was in the playoffs, that was the famous Can't Play Canter when he was in Oklahoma City. Exactly. So, like, if you can't play Cantor, Myers-Lunard isn't really going to be much of an upgrade at all if he's even an upgrade one bit over Cantor. And then if you do go to Zach Collins, look, like, we all like Zach Collins on this podcast.

I know you love him, Charks. It was only a matter of time. I forgot to Collins hive. Only a matter of time. But for now, though, Adams would toss Zach Collins around like a ragdoll. And I'm not finding any answers for Portland at the center position. And I'm feeling like Portland's only real hope here is to pray that Russell Westberg shoots the thunder out of the series. So, Charks, can you give me any hope for Portland?

Well, I think the other thing, too, is against OKC's bench. OKC really only trusts like five or six players. And really, they've been counting on Paul George to carry their second unit and their first unit all season. Like, he has to play like 40, 45 minutes in game on these big games. And Portland's got a nice solid eight, nine-man rotation. If you can attack Nerlin's no well, who's even on their bench? I mean, so Raymond Felton's playing a lot right now. Oh, my gosh.

Seriously, my mind's blanking. Who's our backup wing in Oklahoma City? they have Markeith Morris They have Dennis Schrooter I'm saying a backup wing though Ad Bill Nader Yeah I'll donate her Yeah Portland's best chance

In the series Is to win those minutes When those Schroeder Non-Paul George minutes Or just really that's the time They have a much deeper team With Rodney Hood Compared to the guys

Who's listed in Oklahoma City I don't know man Rodney Hood Seth Curry Jake Lehman You know who the Blazers bench Does have now They have Anthony

Simon's. Oh, no. Anthony Simons, and this is a stat from Reddit, three teenagers in NBA history have posted 37 or more points with nine or more assists. LeBron James,

Kevin Durant, and Anthony Simons. Nice. Is he on the playoff roster? He should be after game 82, baby. He absolutely should be. I mean, yeah, they got Curry. I have a good way.

They have Seth Curry, Jake Lehman, Rodney Hood off the bat. That's a pretty solid back-up wings. With Simon's, the Blazers absolutely have a chance, but I'm going with OKC in 5. Wow. This is a tough one. I actually do believe in the Blazers bench. I'm going to go Blazers in 7.

Nice. I'll split the middle. I'll go, I'm going to go OKC and 7. Paul George comes through at the end. Okay. I like it. I like it. So two for Thunder, one for Portland.

Let's shift over to the Eastern Conference for a minute. I'm going to go with the Sixers and the Nets. And this is probably not the most intriguing series on something. the surface, but I'm intrigued especially because of Joel Embed's health right now. He's dealing with a sore left knee that's kept him out of a lot of games since the All-Star break. And Brett Brown and Elton Brand were very vague about his availability this weekend. So we'll see about that. But whether Embed's healthy or not, especially if he's not healthy, it's going to be fascinating to watch the series from a tactical perspective because Brooklyn's pick or

roll offense is critical to their success, but also for Philadelphia, they have not had an elite pick and roll defense this season. So I do wonder with DeAndleuil Russell and Spencer Didwitty, how will the Nets try to exploit defenders like J.J. Redek and T.J. McConnell, will they seek out mismatches? How will they operate against Philadelphia's typical drop defense where Mbide or the other pick and roll defender drops to the paint? With Dianelah Russell, you know, having a effective mid-range game,

he's been better at getting to the rim as well, and also willing to pull up from three. I do wonder how that matchup will play out over the course of the series. So Charks is exploiting some of these mismatches or these weaker defenders on Philadelphia, the key for the net to actually have a chance of winning the series. I mean, if you think about it, right, if you want to build a team to beat Philadelphia, you'd probably have a team that went to a lot of pick and roll, spreads the floor really well, has a ton of size on the wings to attack them.

Brooklyn has all those things. Like, just on paper, you know, matchups make fights. This could be, I think, could be a pretty good series just by the term of the strength of the biggest of each team's roster. We talked about with OKC and their lack of wings. Philly has nothing on their bench right now. James Ennis, who Houston got rid of as soon as they possibly could, is their best wing off the bench?

He doesn't play right. He's out. Yeah. Mike Levin, frenemy of the podcast of the Rice-Sariki Sanchez podcast, has made multiple jokes on Twitter about how Zaire has no idea where he's supposed to be on offense, but we'll need to play, like, 40 minutes a game in each of these in each of these games, just because they have

no, they have no wing depth at all. I think they go Jonathan Simmons, I guess, because he has experience. Playoff experience, yeah. Yeah, two years ago, he was, he made his money off, off the OKC series. Yeah, I mean, does Brooklyn actually have a chance, though? I mean, like, or is it like, even,

even though it's Friday right now and the series starts tomorrow, is it still too early to tell without knowing Joella Mead's availability? Because ultimately, he's by far the best player in the series. and he is just murdered Brooklyn this season, just dominated them. I mean, I really, really like Jared Allen. I really like Ed Davis.

But those guys cannot stop Joel Abed. Yeah, we have the numbers here. It's 30, 14, and 5 on 60% shooting in those games. And like specifically in those matchups, the Sixers scored 1.2 points per possession on possessions that Davis defended Embeddeed, 1.3 points per possession when Alan was on a bead. And then intriguingly, they scored only 0.9 points per possession when Rondea Hollis Jefferson was Joel. Oh, hey.

Small ball. Embed killed RH Day individually. He was shot five of seven against him. But, you know, I'm not sure that's sustainable for Brooklyn if they do go small. But Jared Allen, like as much as I like him, nice player, nice kid, nice hair, he just doesn't have a chance against Embed. He does not. So maybe you do have to go small, John. Maybe this is the series.

One other thing on this series, I'm going to be interested to watch how Kenny Atkinson coaches, because he's a guy who's not afraid to get weird. He used the box in one defense earlier this season against Kemba Walker. He's used the zone more than any other playoff team. Only the Miami Heat used zone more than Brooklyn over the full regular season. The Nets are a team that is not afraid to change stylistically game to game. And, you know, if Embed is out,

there's a real window here for Brooklyn to win. series. They're not going to win if it means healthy and effective. But I think in terms of laying a blueprint or confirming what we may feel is effective in stopping Philadelphia, I'm intrigued by what Brooklyn will be able to show or try or experiment with in this first round series, which might be something for teams of Apollo moving forward. I think he make him beat a passer if he's in. Like, I honestly can get like eight-nine assists in the game. I'm done looking at every time. Make Simmons shoot. Make Butler shoot. Make him be, make decisions. Maybe that's the move, helping off of Ben Simmons, trying to turn him into a cutter,

turning him into a passer, because they're going to post him beat a lot, for sure. What's your prediction, you guys? Sixers and six? I was really thinking, sixers and seven, I can't do it. Really? Wow, I'm Sixers and Five, and I'm the one who picked it. Obviously, that depends on Embedd. But, yeah, I'm going Sixers and Five. It'll be a very competitive series, a very competitive five games.

Danny, you're next. What do we got? We got the NBA TV series. We got the Nuggets and Spurs. Very appropriate for you to pick that. Very appropriate. So, yeah, so the Nuggets and Spurs have been relegated to the NBA TV landscape, the wilderness out there. Mainly because I feel like the Nuggets have to earn it.

They haven't made the playoffs in like five years. You know, they're the number two seed, but we don't know anything about them come, you know, the crucible of postseason basketball. And yeah. So neither team can really win on the road. They both have terrible road records. But I wonder if that's enough of an advantage on Denver side to kind of cancel out the fact that Pop probably knows exactly how he wants to play this series. People seem skeptical of the Nuggets, Danny,

despite the fact they have the number seven offense, despite the fact they have the number 10 defense, MVP candidate in Nikola Yokic, a deep roster. They won 54 games, which is not easy to do in the loaded West. So if a fan hasn't watched Denver all year and they're hearing those stats, they're probably wondering why people are skeptical. So, like, Kevin, I got to say, people are skeptical because they haven't watched Denver all year, as you can just say.

Still, people who have watched Denver all year are skeptical letting into the postseason. Why? I think it's just a matter of Yokich being the unique player he is. He's not a guy we've typically in, he's not a guy we typically envision dominating in a postseason series. He just doesn't have the athletic advantages that most players have, most stars have. And when you're looking at that team, it's built around him being able to get, you know, his passes off to shooters. The problem with that is the Nuggets have been really bad shooting three over the past 10 games or so. They've closed the year out pretty roughly.

And they have a bunch of shrieky shooters. And the Spurs under Pop over the past 20 years have been very much, you know, a team. that can, they've been a team that can exploit teams that can't shoot. That's, that's just what they do. Yeah, it feels like Denver has kind of skipped a step. Like, normally in this progression of these things, you make the playoffs as a low seed your first time, you lose, you get experience, you come back in year two, okay.

But Denver's skipped that whole year because they missed the playoffs last year. And now it's like, oh, no one trusts them because they have no playoff experience. How all Yokuts do on defense? How will Jamal Murray do? Like, do they have weaknesses that can be exploited in a seven-gain series? We haven't seen any of them playing a seven-game series. Really, that's Paul Millsap. Yeah, Will Barton is the only other guy who has like,

and he only has one season of playoff experience. And that was, again, five years ago. And he was a bench guy too, I think, like then. I was going to say the Nuggets played this absolutely perfectly to close the year to get by far the best matchup for them, losing the games that they did against Portland and against Utah, and then beating Minnesota with that comeback in the final minutes, got them, I think, by far the best series for themselves.

I think... Well, I mean, besides the clippers. But, like, all of the possibilities heading into the final couple of days, I think San Antonio, by far the best matchup for them. You mentioned Nicole Yukic as the unique player that he is. I would not want Nicole Yolkich in a matchup against a heavy pick-and-roll player. I'd be happy with this matchup for Denver

compared to going against Russell Westbrook. and also you're avoiding Houston in that second round as well. I'd much rather have this side of the bracket that they're on where that second round matchup is either going to be Portland or Thunder instead of potentially facing Houston in the second round. I think Denver played this pretty well for themselves on both of the first and second round where they have a path. Well, everyone on the side of the bracket does for sure.

Yeah, definitely. Charks, you noted before we started this podcast, who guards Lamarcus Aldridge for the Denver Nuckets? Who do you think it should be for Denver? That's tough because I feel like he kind of has an edge on Yokic and on Millsap. I think he shot like 54% from the field against Denver this year. So I'm not sure how that's going to play out. I mean, maybe Mason Plumley is their best guy

because he gives him the best combination of size, length and speed on Lamarcus. I think DeRosen too can have a big series. He's got the size on Gary Harris, was really their best primary defender. I guess I'll have Tori Craig on him too. But this was like it could be a long series if they can't control Lamarckson to Rosen. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what San Antonio does

with that front court because in their last two matchups when Millsap was healthy for both those games between Denver and San Antonio, Yokh spent 62 possessions on Aldridge and 41 against Pertl. And Millsap had 38 against Aldridge and 39 against Rudy Gay in lineups where Aldridge was the only true big on the floor.

Maybe that's something San Antonio goes to more often, even though, at least statistically, the Aldridge Pertil front court performed well during the regular season. Maybe they'll go a little bit more with Aldridge of the five to try to space out Yokochan switches, perhaps, or even just bringing Millsap away from his roaming role near the pain. That'll be something to monitor. The other thing, too, to watch is Derek White on Jamal Murray. Derek White, I think, is kind of the X factor for San Antonio.

he usually the guy gives him the best combination of size and shooting on the perimeter. I can glad to have a big series of him to win. All right, cool. So what are our predictions for this game? Danny, you go first. Nuggets and six. John? I'm going to go for some drama, Nuggets and seven.

I'm Nuggets and six as well, Danny. Next up, John, who do we have? We got your boys, KOC, Celtics Pacers. I'm surprised a little higher, actually. I guess the big question is Mark is smart. So what happens? So he got hurt with the last game of the season. Who replaced in the starting lineup?

And how much of a loss is that? I mean, I love Marcus Martin. And I think he's a all NBA defender. I think he should be on one of the two all defensive teams. But Boston still has plenty of bodies. They still have plenty of guys that they can throw out there and be effective defenders, especially in this first round series. You know, you can put Jalen Brown in the starting lineup.

Still of Tatum, Marcus Morris, Terry Rosier, Shemi Ojellet can play if he has to. there's plenty of bodies on Boston's roster to overcome the loss of Marcus Smart. And didn't mention Gordon Hayward as well, who is obviously not near the same level of a defender as Marcus Smart, but he has gotten a lot better over the course of the season on the offensive and before. So I think that gain will help out Boston out. And look, Indiana, they are a great story, you know, the way they performed after the

Victor Oladipo injury, but they have really lost some of that luster that they had immediately following that. I don't, I don't see any of having much of a chance in this first round series. So you're going to tell us by Gordon Hayward, KOC? See back? Are we buying this this time? Is this latest research for real? I'm buying it for sure. This is the longest

it continued, you know, run of success for him all season long. He had little spurts before. I thought Danny Aange had an interesting quote that I saw tweeted out a couple, a couple minutes before we actually recorded this. And he said to, I think, NBC Sports Boston, that he looked at

Gordon Hayward as a first round draft pick entering the season where he knew the Celtics were getting a good player, but because he, you know, like a rookie, he's not going to be an impactful player early in the year. But he'll improve over the course of time and then be somebody who can contribute. That's sort of what's happened with Hayward this season where it's been incredibly frustrating watching him play. But the last 20-ish games or so, the last month and a half, I think he's looked not exactly like how he wasn't Utah because he's doing it against bench units. He's not playing with as much volume on the offensive end. But his production has been really, really good.

He's shooting the ball better and getting to the line more frequently as well at a rate comparable to his career in Utah. So I'm totally buying. Are you buying Gordon Hayward as well, Danny? One thing I know we had mentioned that, you know, we mentioned the Zach Cram piece about momentum. But I just want to point out that Gordon Hayward, in their last meeting against the Pacers,

went perfect from the field and perfect from the line, 21 points on 9 of 9 shooting, 3 of 3 from the free throw line. If he gets that up, you know, the Celtics are sweeping this. Do you think he stayed off the bench, keep him in his role, or move him back to the last starting lineup?

I think he starts with Smartout. I wonder just because in terms of having the ball and his hands more on that second unit, if it makes more sense to kind of stagger that. Oh, wait, but they have the option of going with Jalen Brown too, right? With starting... Yeah.

has he looked, has he looked okay, coming back from back spasms? To be determined with Jalen Brown. But in his last game, he did play against Washington. He did look fine from what I saw in that game. Yeah. I think one of the issues for Neanna in this series

is that Miles Turner, not quite an all-NBA defender or not quite a defensive player of the year candidate, but he's still an incredible defensive player. The problem is, is what he does with the room protection is not something Boston is going to do. They're not a team that gets to the rim very often. So Miles Turner's best skill, I'm not sure, applies quite as much in this series as it might against another team that does get to the rim. Boston just doesn't get to

the room anyway. I guess it's interesting also. Will they keep starting Aaron Baines? They've been going to those bigger lineups lately, or will they move Horford back to the five and make Turner kind of get on the perimeter a little more? And then from Indiana side, I think if they're going bigger, that's where you could see Thad Young have a big series they're going against Baines or Horford obviously Boggland Bogdano which has been huge for them. I think they're going to need a bonus but as you go over these

matchups it doesn't seem as it doesn't seem as like it's going to be a tough climb for them and they got Darren Kausen and Kyrie too. It's just there's a lot of spots where it's going to be tough for them. Yeah, there's a lot that you can go wrong for Indiana in this series I think ultimately for Boston they need to

refine themselves that that ability just to chase down 50-50 balls, playing with second efforts. As much as they've been better to close the season overall, but there's still something missing from them. And maybe against Indiana is grinded out, style, constantly, you know, trying on every single possession, maybe Boston is able to find themselves in this matchup against Indiana.

But without Marker Smart, he's really the heart of that defense. But next to Al Horford, I'm skeptical. They'll be able to find that moving forward. Well, I mean, the biggest thing is just playing Al Horford more minutes. So it's crazy. Like the last 15 games, when Horford is on the floor, they're plus 7.9. And the next rotation player is Tatum at plus 1.9. Like, he's been the key for them all season.

It's Al Horford time, folks. Yeah, El Horford is going to be somebody who has to play more. You know, last year in the postseason, he averaged 36 minutes. He's not fully healthy right now. But maybe they've been conserving him a little bit for this postseason run. Yeah, absolutely. with this series, I'm going with Celtics in five. How about you guys?

That feels about right to me. I'll go Boston in five, too. I think Indiana has a little bit more fight in them. Celtics and six. One more game. I dig it. I dig it. Next up, I'm going to go with Bucks Pistons.

I'm just going to say this right up front. I'm going with Bucks in four here. This is going to be a massacre. Yeah, why is this number six? Well, the Bucks are going to stomp their foot down this series. I'm intrigued and here's why, because this is the series that's going to

really, really energize the talk about as Yanos Antecoombo, the new face of the NBA while LeBron James is off, you know, preparing to record Space Jam 2, Yonis Santa de Kumbo is going to just absolutely dominate this first round series. So I'm

intrigued by it from that entertainment factor. On the other side, I think for Blake Griffin, this is not a farewell. He still has a lot of time left on his contract. But the way this season ended, I think it'll be nice to see him get an opportunity in the play in the postseason. Because he was unbelievable this year for Detroit Pistons, extending his range, shooting off the dribble, shooting off the catch, operating as a playmaker. He's an all-NBA talent, man.

After a couple years of not even making the All-Star team. It's just sad the way it's ended for Blake. I'm just looking forward to seeing him going out strong and fighting for some wins in the season. I don't know, man. What's up with him? Like, his knees are hurt or something? Yeah, that's the thing. Like, have you seen him play in the past couple of games? Like, he's, it's been really rough. It's sad. He can barely move out there.

And if that's the case, then the Pissons really don't have much going for them. Like, all of the things that he can do, you know, he's extended his range. He takes as many threes as like Chris Middleton, basically. You know, as a guy who can handle them pick a roll, everything. It all

kind of depends on him being able to move. So. And I'm not sure he can move. Yeah. And it's, it's really, really depressing to watch. And,

you know, for Detroit moving forward, Dwayne Casey had a really, scary quote. I think last week, he mentioned how Blake playing can't make his knee any worse. It's like, what does that mean?

Yeah. What does that mean? It means what it means, KOC. It's cool. It's basically pain management. Like, if he can play through the pain,

then he can play through it. But yeah, yeah, I hate when people say that because it's like things can always get worse. yeah no kidding exactly that's pleasant thought danny as always your cheer and optimism is i'm not sure that they can get better for a 30 year old forward that's had of the amount of surgeries that he has the amount of injuries that he has it's i don't know it's it's it's bittersweet because the year he had was was really remarkable uh it sucks an end of this way but but you know besides like you know

the narrative aspect with blake going out and bucks probably sweeping the series Is there anything that Detroit can do, John, in the series with their personnel, that can be something that teams down the line could try to use or implement in their own way against Milwaukee? Man, this is why I was wondering why I had it in number six. I guess they'll try Drummond on Janus, see how that works. Another big body. Like, Detroit's, they're really a one-man team and their one man is on his last knees. This is tough.

I'm wondering, do you, I mean, you guys are. remember last year when the Raptors were basically flailing against the Cavs and Playoff Thon. Yeah. Casey was just like throwing random lineups out there. And I'm wondering if he just starts

doing the crazy like a fox type, you know, lineups. I don't know what those would be. Playoff Thon. I guess we've missed the lead here. That's what's going to happen. I mean, he did save the bucks last season kind of.

before they lost, one to seven. Some good moments. Yeah, you get some good moments. I mean, I guess they end up trying the zone, right?

Yeah, that's what I'm curious about. Will they try something, you know, funky like that? Will they go zone? Which they didn't do during the regular season.

I looked on synergy. I think, I think they had seven or eight possessions of zone against the bucks all season long. Unlikely they turned to that. But it'll be something to watch for

because they have to try something, have to try something. Is this the most likely sweep Are we all saying this is a sweep? Yes. This is why I'm asking why it's number six. Well, I mean, because it's the best player, you know, the most exciting player to watch is the MVP in Yonason of Kumbu.

I'm just excited to watch that in the postseason. That's all. Bad reason I know. But these last two matchups really aren't that spectacular. How dare you? To be fair. I'm just saying, Danny, you're up next. Wait, one thing.

Would this be Janice's first playoff series win? This would be his first playoff series win. That's a big deal. Yeah, exactly. That's a much better reason than the one I gave, Danny. You're up next, Danny. Yeah, I got to go with my Raptors. Raptors and Magic.

Oh, yeah. The Raptors have finally escaped NBA TV hell. They deserve it. The Magic are now going to be gracing ESPN and NT&D, and it's going to be lovely. Shout out to Kevin Clark. I mean, I'm really just looking forward to two of my favorite players in the NBA right now.

Jonathan Isaac, Pascal Seaccom. It's a true NBA nerds delight. Charks, take it away. I mean, like, Pascal Seaccoms

obviously had a great season this year. And I think all of us on Jonathan and Isaac High, we want that to be him one day. We want to be a seven-foot Seaccom with a great jump shot.

Like, it's going to be a really fun matchup to really long, really fast. Pretty high IQ guys, very versatile defensively. I love Isaac. Thress Orlando is okay.

I guess, but I'm going to watch that a lot. Well, you know, this year, Orlando was eighth in defense. That's one thing, one real positive indicator for them heading into the postseason. They're not going to beat Toronto. But with that defense, is there any chance, Danny, that they make this competitive series at all? Sure. I mean, that's kind of what they were building towards, right? That's the reason why they have all of these long athletic guys who, you know, project to be good, at least solid defensive players,

is because in the grind of the playoff series, having that length, having that margin for error is exactly what you need to pull off the upset. And they've played the Raptors very, very well in the regular season. Beat them twice. Yep. Yep. I got Aaron Gordon on Kauai.

It's Aaron Gordon's first playoff. Maybe he can have a big kind of breakout moment on this big stage. I don't know. And I'm also looking forward to seeing Nikola Vucevich as well. After the season that he had playmaking presence for Orlando, obviously a primary score for them as well. Against Marcusol, Sergei Baca, whether it's on Pascal Seacum on a switch against him,

a number of different intriguing matchups for Vucevich against this Raptors front court. Ultimately, though, I'm going Raptors in four. How do we forget? Serge comes back to Orlando. There's the big story. Revenge. Return of Abaka. Ultimately, this series,

despite past mistakes, including that one, for Orlando this season has been a win man like they had positive development they made the postseason for the first time in a century and we still haven't seen what moamba and marcolle fultz can do so moving forward for Orlando this season has been a win regardless of if this is a sweep or not yeah i guess one thing to note is ogen an obi will not be playing in the series shan strania reported today that he underwent emergency appendectomy after being diagnosed with acute appendicitis tough year for a guy, man. Yeah, it's been a really tough year for him. After a really promising rookie season, you know, obviously you're looking at him

and you're looking at an extremely versatile defender. But he was just never really able to gain much of a rhythm this season for, you know, various reasons, injuries and off-the-court stuff. You know, it's been rough. I guess, too, there's also the Terrence Ross revenge game factor. Terrence Ross has been one of the best bench scores in the league this season.

I could seem went off like 30 points in a game against Toronto in his old stomping grounds. That wouldn't stun me. I mean, he's dropped 51 before, so that's not out of the realm of possibility. I mean, he's big. He can really shoot it.

He can get his own shot, run around screens. I'm going to say he gets one game for Orlando, Terrence Ross for that game. Okay. Raptors in five for you, John. How about you, Danny? Yeah, I have Raptors in five.

Last game we have, last series we have Warriors, Clippers. John, kick us off with this exciting series. Yeah, I mean, all I would think about is like, would Katie sign with the clippers? Let's talk about what's really going on here. Like, is that a possibility you think?

Like, would he go to L.A.? Yeah? I think so. I think you should at least consider it, right? You agree, Danny? I think so. What I'm imagining is, do you remember that series where it was the Nuggets versus the Warriors, basically the series that kicked the nuggets out of the playoffs for

the past five years? Yeah, yeah. And at the end, Iguidala talks with who was it? Was it Curry or was it Kerr? And it was just like, okay. Yeah, they made like a handshake deal that Iguado was joining the Warriors. If that happens in this series, I'm going to lose my mind. With KD talking to like, you know, Jerry West or something.

I always say my favorite story at the NBA, I can make me the last five years, is that apparently the pitch meeting when Iggy went to Golden State and they were like, all right, Andre, here's the plan. He's like, no, no, no, I got the plan. We're doing this. Here's the plan. It's like this way. We're going this, this and the other.

Yeah, I mean, I wonder like, can they make a run on Anthony? davis right i think that's big from this series like if if she goes alexander as a big series that makes the clippers packets for anthony davis look a lot more appealing if they get him and you're kevin durrant you go katie kairie and ad and the clippers totally trump lebron take over the city it's something yeah there there is a lot of stake here besides a series win for the warriors which is inevitable i know sorry but clippers do not have a chance in the series but what is at stake for the Clippers is showing to New Orleans that these assets are going to translate to the postseason,

especially Shaggildos Alexander, who was terrific. And you loved him going into the draft, John. And he was, I think he exceeded even probably your expectations this regular season. But now in the postseason has an opportunity to elevate that even more. Oh, yeah. What do you want to see from him? I got more SGA takes. The best Canadian player of a generation is happening.

I mean, I think he'll be guarding. He'll be guarding Kevin Durant probably. So they're starting lineup. They go Beverly, Shamit, SGA, Gallo, Zubach. So you're going to have to put SGA in KED probably, realistically. So I mean, just do your best young man. You know, it's going to be tough for you. But just keep getting better.

I think, like, they could offer Gildas Alexander, Landry Chamis for a great year. And then Zubach is really good this year. That's three fringe starter players for a team like New Orleans, plus all those picks. There's a package. it might make sense for them. Absolutely. I think a lot of it will also depend on Boston and the Eastern Conference, obviously, of all teams, has the most assets they can offer unless a team like the Nix were to put the number

one pick on the table, which I don't think they would do. But today at 3.30 Eastern, probably after you hear this podcast, the tiebreakers will be determined to figure out the 7, 8, 9 slot between Memphis, Dallas, and New Orleans for what their draft lottery odds will look like, among other tiebreakers, what Boston can do with the picks that they'll have, moving within the draft or combining those picks and using them all in an offer to New Orleans, that's going to matter, weighing that against what the L.A. Clippers, among other teams, can offer.

Okay, Kiosk, I got a question for you about that. If Karee says, I'm leaving for sure no matter what, is the A.D. trade still happening for Boston if he's gone? I cannot imagine they would put Jason Tatum on the table. I would imagine they would make a strong offer still, but they would not put Tatum on the table. So that's how KD can really kind of move the pieces around. If he tells Curry, this is happening, let's do it.

He can pull LeBron the summer if he wants. KD could do anything, really. I still would bet on the Knicks. But ultimately, I think for just to tie this back to the actual series here, for Golden State, like I think you can look at little things like how does, you know, DeMarcus cousins translate to the postseason? You know, how will he be attacked and pick and roll? Is there anything that other teams can replicate later on?

But ultimately, I'm not sure what the Clippers can do on the floor is going to apply very much to what Houston does in the second round or to what a Denver might do in the Western Conference finals. These are like drastically different teams in the way they play and in their personnel. Right. And the Clippers are starting like three kids, like three brand new kids. Two of them just straight from college. One of them has played maybe, you know, what, two? seasons with the Lakers and Zubatch.

He's basically a rookie. Yeah. They only played last. Pretty much. So, like, I'm wondering actually if, you know, if they actually do end up starting both Shammett and Shaggildjus Alexander. Like, maybe they put in Garrett Temple for a little, just a little bit more size on KD to start.

That would make sense to me. And I could see them making love, like, as a series goes on, you've got to probably start Montrez at some point. Yeah. Just get your best player on the floor. Lou Williams. I mean, he could kill. could have a big series too.

I can see Warriors Bigs, Lou Williams. If we're being real, though, it's Warriors and Four anyway. I mean, the biggest thing is going to be to the LA nightlife. Like, well, they want to just kind of hang out for a week, right? That's probably their biggest chance to get in the game is if, you know, Golden State doesn't really show up for one of those L.A. games. That's it, man. I got Warriors in five.

I think the Clippers are just scrappy enough to get one game. How about you, Charks? Yeah, I'll say Warriors in Five. Golden State's going to start off slow, get this thing ramps. that pretty slowly. All right, let's, let's move on to some conference finals, NBA finals predictions. Either of you guys want to start with your prediction. Let's actually, let's do this one step at a time.

What's our final four for the conference finals? How about you, Danny? I'm thinking Warriors, man, I, like, I don't want. This bracket is so open, man. It's hard to say. Yeah. So, like, if I'm going straight from what I just predict, through this podcast, I guess the Blazers?

Ooh. I guess so. I don't know. Like, I'm not very confident in that. So Blazers to the Western Conference final. So that means you have them beating the Thunder and then you would have them beating the Nuggets, correct? You had you've selected Nuggets to win. Ah, yeah, I guess.

I love the certainty. It's great. Okay. All right. How about in the East, Danny? Uh, that would be, let's see. Yeah, I'll do Yeah, Bucks Raptors.

How about you, John? I mean, I'm got Bucks Trappers for sure In the East and the West, man. Who, I almost want to pull the trigger on the rockets. I really want to do it. Oh. Do it, John. They can do it.

They can do it. They can do it. Do it. I can't. I mean, they got, I almost say Warrior's thunder for content. Warrior Stunder for content. I could hear

KOC groaning all. off camera or off off off mic oh i mean i have warriors nuggets um in the west of carvin's finals and bucks raptors very basic picks here i get the one and two seeds in each side and then i'm going with bucks warriors in the NBA finals and the warriors winning that in six games for their third straight title how about you danny what's your NBA finals prediction i got to stay true to my brand i got warriors raptors warriors in six Okay. John? Yeah, I'm going to say Warriors' Bucks. But really, it's all about Warriors Rocket's second round, man. That's the series. I'm pretty bummed with the conference finals. That's going to be everything, man. That's going to be awesome.

I'm excited to have that in the second round. You're assuming we do get that. I think that'll be great to have a battle of two Titans in the second round. It would be cool. A fresh Chris Paul? Yeah. Yeah, exactly. I'm totally digging that, to be honest. Well, guys, it's all we have time for today. Thanks, Danny. Thanks, John. Absolutely. Yeah, it's good. I'm excited to playoffs. Yeah, man, I'm pumped.

Like I mentioned at the top of the show, we're going to have a revised schedule next week. And throughout the entire postseason, John Azales will be back on Monday with Heat Check. It'll be me and Chris Vernon on Tuesday with the mismatch. And then it'll be us three back every Wednesday during the NBA playoffs. And we'll be doing more draft talk as well moving forward. And then Thursday night's group chat will be recording. It's the best time of the year, guys. I'm excited.

Lead up to the draft of free agency. Looking forward to the next couple months with you. Yep, let's do it. And thank you for listening to The Ringer NBA show. Please give us a five-star ratings on iTunes, share your podcast with your friends, and be sure to check out the Ringer.com, too. We have loads, and I mean loads of playoff coverage

up on the site from this entire week that you can check out. And next week we'll be expanding the Ringer's 2019 NBA draft guide as well. With some other goodies as well, including my Scudder reports and some stuff maybe from Zach Kramm as well. Looking forward to that. Anyway, happy NBA playoffs, everybody. Enjoy the weekend. Let's do it.