The Ringer NBA Show - The Playoffs Are Here! With Bill Simmons (Ep. 98)

Episode Date: April 14, 2017

The Ringer's Chris Vernon is joined by Bill Simmons to discuss the most polarizing MVP race ever (5:00), James Harden's MVP case (10:00), CP3's attrition (15:00), Kyrie Irving and LeBron's disappointing win total (21:00), Celtics-Bulls (28:00), the Cavs's switch (32:00), Raptors-Bucks (35:00), the Celtics' formula (39:00), Thon Maker's wild-card potential (42:00), Kevin Durant's return (47:00), Spurs-Grizzlies (51:00), Clippers-Jazz (55:00), and the chance the Warriors-Cavs rubber match happens (58:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to The Ringer NBA show. It's playoff time. And who better to talk to than the CEO of the Ringer, Bill Simmons. Hey, what's up, Bill? How are you? I'm excited. You sound excited. I read your MVP column this morning.

I read your MVP column this morning. And James Harden, huh? Yeah. It took a while to get there. I really thought, I don't think this was the best, but I definitely thought it was the most polarizing. and it was the most entertaining. And, you know, every candidate was flawed in some way.

There was a really good reason to pick against each one. And I think that's why people had so much trouble with it. I think Westbrook's going to look at it and broke it down and stared at it from every direction. You know, as the MVP, you're picking him because of the impact of what he did this season and the performance art of it, which I get. Harden was just better offensively. He put up basically the same stats.

Yeah, I think he averaged the 29, 11, and 8. At 32, 11, say he was like 94, you know. And I really did think he made his teammates better. And that was a team that 500 teams amassed. I mean, I didn't even vote for him for any of my all-MBA teams last year. I thought he was turning into a D.H. He had a very strange season. And then he goes in, he plays point card, learns how to do that.

He basically does Nash's son. they take whatever Nash was doing in the mid-2000s and they bring it to a whole other level and he was just fantastic and he made everyone on his team and the 10th century. It was a really significant season. I think it got lost a little bit because triple doubles

and everything that Russ was doing, which I get 17th offense in the league and, you know, they won eight last games. Unless you're just saying I because of the triple double because that was amazing and that's the reason I'm voting for him. there's really no other case.

It has to be either harder, and if you're going to go into metrics, then it's Kauai. If you're just going to wincy, two-way play, you go Kauai. I couldn't even come close to get in there. But unless you're saying the triple doubles were amazing,

that's why I'm voting for Russ. Here's what I would tell you. I don't buy the whole Houston was supposed to be totally average. I get the Vegas odds, whatever. I thought losing Kevin Durant that, Oklahoma City was going to be terrible.

So that's where I like break away. I thought that, and I don't buy the whole their supporting cast is a lot better than we give it credit for. I think their supporting cast is terrible. Outside of Ola Depot, I don't care about any of them. Adams is an 11 and 7 guy who everybody seems to love. Enos Cantor couldn't even be, like you couldn't even play them in the playoffs. I get they added Todd and McDermott, but that was late.

I don't think, I thought, I thought they were going to be the terrible team, Oklahoma City. I thought the Durant thing was a death blow. And the other thing is I know that they all had great offensive seasons in Houston, but we're giving hard on all this credit for it. Like another major thing happened there, which is they got a new coach who, by the way, almost everybody that's played for him has had these ridiculous offensive seasons. We've seen that. So how much impact is it really that they played in for Mike D'Anonio? Hold on, hold on. Wait a second. Wait a second.

Dan Tony flamed out in New York and Los Angeles. I don't think that's true. The everybody puts those stats. Nash put up huge stats. Joe said that, nobody put a huge stats. Well, it just so happens to be the two guys that play point guard for him. Like that's a coincidence? Well, he's been on 14.

And two guys have been fantastic for them. So I don't know if you could say everybody, but going back to the OKC thing for a second, I thought they were going to be good this year. I liked the team. I put this in the piece. Like, we came out of the playoffs last year. People loved Adam.

You know, I think SA, where they rank every players, they rank all the players. Like you can rank guys like that. But I think Adams was like 36th in the SSI thing. I came out of the playoffs last. just thinking he was the best young center in the league. I really like Oladipo.

Oladipo was a guy, his second pick in the Jazz. I think he was 17 a game in Orlando. He's basically the exact same guy in OKC. They never went to him. The only time he really got... Plus was out of the game or if Russ had shot so many times in a row that Oladip got to shoot one. I just don't think...

I think they made a concerted team. I like the bonus in college. Why was he so bad? And really, so, after three games. everyone's like, where's the shooting on this OKC2? Well, why did they trade OEleast over them? They traded them basically to save money for three months. That's the stuff I don't get when people say,

this was, oh, my God, he dragged this supporting cast. They're over under Vegas was 45 and a half. How can I bet that over? We thought they were going to win 50 games. You know, they were lucky to win 47. He made some end-of-the-game shots. They really could have been 43 and 39. They were behind.

How many times? is that team behind 15, 16 points in the third and fourth quarter. That's to me. I don't think you can really, really succeed when one guy has the ball that much. This is why I wrote that Westbrook piece last month. When somebody has the ball that much, it hurts everybody else. And the thing with Harden for me is, you know, Westbrook took 400 more shots in every no translation of ever succeeding the NBA.

She's never worked. I guess, and this is where you break apart, right? You thought Oklahoma City was going to be good. I did not. I do think he totally dragged them to the amount of wins that they have. And I guess it's just, if you have breaks in opinion, like, I don't get it with Stephen Adams. They just played 82 games. He averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds.

Like Marcine Gortod averaged 10 and 10. Is he one of the great centers in the world? Like, maybe he is. I don't know. But like, I don't know. Hold on now. Hold on. If you put Stephen Adams on, okay, in the Capella Denei, Harold Roll,

and he's just screened rolling and getting lives and stuff like that, I think he would have been great. I actually think he's better than all three of those guys. I think that he's a better defensive player. What happens is, there needs to be like a name for this, right? You have famously come up with names for different types of guys for years and years. Like, maybe like the Gary Neal All-Stars or something. Right.

And the guys that get this massive bump in perception because they happen to be playing with superstars and they're on TV all the time. That's where I am on Adams. This all happened with Abaka. Everybody's like, oh, he's one of the great power forwards in the league. And if he wasn't playing with Durant in Westbrook, imagine what he could do. And like, again, okay, now we saw what he could do. They went and spent a billion dollars on in Orlando. Some of this stuff.

I like OKC's supporting cast more than other people do. I think Westbrook took too many shots. Other people think he took the right amount. Coming back to, when I look at Houston, I look at OKC, and I just look at the two through 12 guys. Pretty even, or, you know, depending on Houston has more three-point shooters, OKC has more defense and rebound. The eight wins is pretty significant.

And I still think that the way I'm not, I'm just, I think they knew going into it how it was going to play out, and I don't think they care. I think they were like from day one when Durant left, the narrative had to be, this is Westbro's MVP season. And by the way, that's great. That's a really smart way to play it because the Durant thing was one of the most painful departures in the history of the league. But I don't think they ever to win the title, you know, or trying to say, be like, what

we're doing is going to translate to final success. They knew this is an MVP run for Westbrook. I think what Houston, I think Houston's like a dark course finals candidate. I look at the West. I know when I talk about the playoffs. I think Golden State is so far ahead, everybody else. But Houston, to me, is the one team, even though they did tear one team that could get lucky against them a couple times. And maybe get it to a game six or a game seven because they're making three.

Because Harden's such a tough guy to go. I just think the team that could be a team that's just going to have to make three and make 15 to 20 and swing it that way because you're not going to beat them conventionally. All right, let me ask you this because, and we could do a million hypotheticals, but the Clippers won 70% of their games when Chris Paul was in the lineup. Let's say he never misses a game and they do win that many. And they stayed on that pace. They'd have been third. They'd have been behind San Antonio, right, with seven. the 70% win percentage.

If Houston's fourth, if he never gets hurt and Houston's fourth, do you think he still gets your vote? Well, but I think one of the things that made hard in Westbrook was the fact that they played every game and they took just an insane amount of punishment, you know, to go to the few 11 times it's on top of everything else you're doing and carrying the offense and the mental weight of just night after night after night. This is, to me, this is the case for Westbrook. the relentless

that he had, I've just never seen anything like it I've never seen anybody trying his absolute business basically for 82 games I mean he's out of his mind but you know you look at the clippers Chris Paul is not durable

he keeps getting to hurt how many injuries is the guy had you know? No no I'm just talking about record I'm just talking about if Houston had the fourth best record Ball should be my uncle the clippers

the two things that we know about them is that they keep getting dumb injuries and they keep self-combusting at the end of games. I don't trust this team at all in big moments. And, you know, where they landed at the – I mean, part of it is that Chris Paul didn't have to play 82 games, and he didn't have to have that grind of the season. I think if he played 82 games, I don't know if his record is as good as it is. I went to a few clips games this year. I did see some attrition with Chris.

I know the stats don't totally reflect it, but, like, there are. There was one game I went to when they played Washington, and he went toe-to-toe with John Woff for about in-athleticism and explosiveness. Just probably the best defensive point guard in the week for seven, eight years. He had no chance to stand in front of John Waw. I think that Clippers team, to me, I mean, they played really well against Utah this year,

and that's a team that they should beat in a series. I could see it falling apart. I really could. I mean, two weeks from now, we could be talking about Dr. Rivers taking that Orlando GM job. which I think is a real possibility. And then you talk about Blake and Chris Paul's free agents. That's the team of all these, the top seven, eight seats.

That's the team that might just look completely different next year. Last thing on the MVP. I'm going to throw a conspiracy theory. This is a conspiracy theory involving you from the outside looking in. Yeah. Okay. Bill Simmons talked to a lot of different people to make up his MVP mind. You talked to Chuck Closterman, right?

And he was big on the Westbrook thing. You talked to Kevin O'Connor. Kevin O'Connor wrote at the beginning of the season. He had James Hardin as his pick. So he had stock in it. You talked to Joe House, one of your best friends. House probably has money on it. So I...

No, how they have to have money on it. Okay. Okay, so he can call everybody a basketball pervert. opinion is intensely polluted. And then your most famous basketball guest that you did podcast with is literally Westbrook's arch enemy. So if your opinion is your team Kevin Durant, you got Joe Howl who's got money all over. And then- Why am I seen Kevin Durant?

Hold on. Because now you're saying I would do a vote that didn't have good intentions, which is a character question, which is going to make me mad if you're being serious. I always tried to do the right vote. I've had, I've been new at awards comp since 2004. I've always tried to come to the right decision with that. It's actually important to me because when I was doing my basketball by the league and trying to figure out what was legitimate and what was

the MVP votes and stuff, who didn't during the season. So in my mind, like decisions that I made in the past and all the little factors and indicators I use to try to figure out who matter this season in the situation 06. I'd pick Kobe to win the MVP in 06 basically off the ball. But in that case, like, there was no

better candidate. There was no better choice. And his teammates were awful. I mean, if you think, okay, C's dead. I mean, Smush Parker of Flavowellon, I don't even remember who's that you, I remember if I remember Swish Parker started. Okay, C's team was better than that. And I don't think people realize how good Harden season was.

I really don't. I mean, when you have the tenses of all time, and you lead the league and assist in your second league of the league, except for Tony Archibov, when your team's the title, to me it just made the money. I really wanted to vote for Kowai. Oh, man, I want to reward the guy who's on the best team, and I just couldn't kiss.

And the guy who left it on the table was LeBron Jans, because, you know, if they get to like 56, I think he wins the MVP. You know, the one last MVP before it turns into whatever the next direction is. But that team just fell apart to go 23 and 23 in the last 40s. He alone, that should be 50 wins guaranteed. The other thing with Westbrook, what do you think if you have a great player, the history of the end, every guy that, you know, whether it's Temeck and Orlando, Westbrook was this season, but he's gone down to Kobe, Jordan in the late 80s,

he's wins, something like that. Kind of what you would expect, right? Like, if we put Gilbert Arenas on this OKC team, would they be 42 and 40? 43 and 39? I don't know. What do you think? No way. No way.

39 and 43? Well, like, I read all the, I read all the, like, honestly, my head started to hurt reading the Kevin Pelton advanced analyst, like he did all the Vorpe and the War and all this baloney. and what he came up with at the end was that there is, like, this is like statistically the value added slash wins added to Westbrook. Because I was very surprised he landed on Westbrook because he is stats guy, right? And he did it with all those advanced stats, frankly, that are difficult to understand. I don't understand all the formulas, whatever. I just end up reading it like, oh, okay, he added the most value.

He added the most wins. that's why Pelton's going with him, whatever. And I don't really know how you come to the conclusion. I don't understand all of it, but whatever. But I think, you know, at least with those numbers, as I ended up reading it, that Westbrook is adding more wins than anybody and, in fact, adding more wins to his team's ledger. I mean, like, there's ways to compute this, right,

where they have looked through history, where they have looked. So if I'm just going to concede to that, something of which I don't. don't necessarily understand all that completely, then I would say, no, we discount how many wins he adds to this. And you can't just throw in another guy because we have, there's at least some, there's at least some people out there that are doing measurements for that and telling us that historically he is adding more value,

more wins than almost anybody in other seasons. Which would you rather put? It depends on, I would rather play in Mike Dantonie's system. I wouldn't want to play with James Hardin last year. That's a great point. Right? That's another thing. The Hardin's comeback,

him from where he was last year, when I think all of us kind of gave up on him a little bit to what we saw this year was a pretty magical transformation to be paying to that. 2015 and looked like he can give shit. So what he did this year and the fact that he basically took, you know, think about it this way, Nashville and two straight MVP's running that Phoenix offense that we all loved.

He was putting up like 18 and 11 every game, every game. And then that Phoenix offense was. I mean, we thought that Phoenix offense was like a revelation 10 years ago. They took that to a whole other level. So by any means, I can see any of the three, any of the picks. I don't either. I don't either. I have no problem with any of them either.

And I was just messing with you earlier about the guys that all tried to sell you on. James Hart, let me ask you one quick thing about the LeBron thing. Because it does feel like his greatness is held against him. I think we all admit that. If it's anybody else that – and I'll even say with the wins, let's say he's going to average like 26, 9 and 9 or close to. right? If Jimmy Butler average 26, 9 to 9, same amount of wins and the Bulls are the two seed,

don't you think there's a lot of people that are really fighting for Jimmy Butler, but the fact that we expect so much from LeBron, his team, and, you know, he's done it all before, that that all really hurts him. If we just assigned his numbers and success level to a different player, that it would be a totally different story

and we would view it rather differently, because the numbers are crazy. I don't know if I totally agree. My problem with LeBron was that they have Kyrie Irving, too, you know, and they have Kevin Love. And I know they had a ton of injuries, and I know they lost their death on their bench and stuff like that. I believe that a team that had LeBron and Kyrie all year and got 60 games out of love could only win 50 games in the East.

To me, that team underachieved. I don't understand what that happened. So that team to go 23, 23, 23, over 46. games. Tyree and LeBron by themselves should be a 52 win team. We were to put eight replacement players with them.

Kyrie is incredible. I don't understand why that team's not better. You know, I think we really have the chemistry, but decisions are making, I don't get it. I don't understand how you could just fall apart like that. Or it might just be two straight finals runs.

Maybe. It's hard to do the yeah, it's hockey. usually the team that wins the team in the cup, it takes so much out of them that they suck. It seems like the third year is the one that you really start 200 games seasons. But, you know, LeBron still has in all the final. I mean, put the same. You know, that's the best thing about his MVP cases.

I don't think anybody. Nobody is going to greatly regret their MVP vote. This has been a great year with like three, at least three or four, just totally unbelievable seasons. Quick word from our sponsor. Today's show brought you by HBO. Jay Cole, For Your Eyes Only, a Dreamville film. Grammy-nominated hip-hop star's second HBO special debuts tomorrow at 10 to 11 Eastern Time.

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You were worried about who Boston's first round opponent is going to be. They split the season series with Chicago 2-2. On a scale of 1 to 10, how scared are you with the Bulls? to run this clip and some sort of I'm not worried about Fred Horiborick and both. I was legitimately worried of Miami. I thought Miami would have been

since the... And one of the scariest 13-11 would be the Asia for Boston. Celtics. You got Waiters Island in there. A bunch of swing guys. It's just a bad matchup. Every Miami Boston game that I watched this year made me nervous. So I think they really

dodged the boat with that one. I thought Indiana and Chicago were just not even in the same class. Miami. I'd be so bummed out about Miami fan. Miami, you're Miami-Span. You had to genuinely think you had a chance

to, the team was good. They were 30 and 11. That's not a small sample. No, that's a 60-win pace. That's not like we got hot for a couple weeks. I mean, imagine that team would have won 55 or 60 games. It's insane to think about now. I think the Chicago-Indiana combo is pretty bad,

especially if America comes back. Lillard went to a whole other level after the office. And they're dangerous. Like, Portland can get hot. I could go to take it off. I would be shocked if the Bulls beat the Celtics. The recipe for what to do against the Celtics, the only practice.

The one X-factor would be if Jimmy Butler just lost his mind at. Cleveland, Indiana. Is there any chance Cleveland has a big problem with Indiana? No. I don't think Indiana's kid, do you? No. And I didn't think, you know what? I mean, I guess there's this sentiment that, like, a lot's changed over the last couple of weeks.

Obviously, George went into this supernova mode. He went from, like, averaging 21 to, like, 28 and put the team on his back. And evidently, he's super happy about Lance Stevenson being back and all this crap. But I saw him in person, I don't know, a little less than a month ago. And they didn't even, like, talk to each other. And they just quit. In a game that I was at, they just quit. They just stopped playing.

And nobody was talking to each other. And it was just a, it was a bizarre mix that I felt like they had no chemistry. And Paul George was bitching after every single game about them. But evidently something's changed over the last couple of weeks. I don't know. And I'm with you. I think first would be my bet over match with the bra. I also like, who guards, who guards wrong?

I think it's going to be beaten, by the round, but defense has to be, you know, they're a good example, which had a similar 50 games that they don't want to do. Mondo's a good ass play good defense. I don't see the pieces with Cleveland for good defense. LeBronkin fly around and do this whole thing, but even in that Boston game, when they kind of made everyone think, oh, yeah, here are the calves. Oh, they still have it. Like, they went and that came because of offense, that defense.

They had a huge second quarter, and they made a lot of shots. I'm not convinced that they can get stopped. And even if you go back to last year in game seven when they beat the Warriors, if you really go back carefully and watch the last six minutes of that, it's not like Cleveland was getting stops. Like Golden State just missed shots. It's wide open shots. You can make a montage of shots of either that were just terrible shots they shouldn't have taken

or wide open shots that they missed. So, you know, I think it's going to be a real, challenge for them to keep winning and winning and winning without having it. All right. Toronto, Milwaukee. Milwaukee's been kind of hot here at the end of the season, got Middleton back. Any chance Toronto is... I really like this Toronto for a few playoff rounds. Here's the catch, though.

It always makes serve. The team that I don't think is going to win also has the best player in the series. And there's a chance Janus could be the best player in the series. I think Toronto's built, you know, they're just deep. one of the things I like about them is they have different types of lineups they can do they have a defense lineup they have an offense lineup they go big

they go small they have different guys at the end of the game who can score I think that's what is ultimately going to make them win this one I think this is going to be a good series I like this Milwaukee team I think you know the fact that they only got 80 games combined out of Middleton

and Jabari and they're still were able to pretty comfortably get in the playoffs is a pretty good time for them Do you think Toronto's got the best shot of being Cleveland? I do. I think, you know, I just think they're better than the Celtics. You know, I probably watched more Celtics this year than any season since maybe 08. I just really enjoyed the team.

It's a really flawed team. And it's a team that, you know, if they're not making threes, is in just a shitload of danger. I think that teams have over the second half of the season, teams kind of, of figured out not how to stop Isaiah but at least had to get in his way a little bit and how to keep him from going off and just making it difficult for him and you know the smarter teams were picking them up basically over half quarter of two guys they chip him anytime he's going to the lane they knock down thinking that he's going to get up with Boston like Boston's never been able to guard the Rosa probably the team he's had the most success against

PJ Tucker stopped are pretty easy to figure out if they're not making percent of their threes against a good team. It's really hard for them to win. They're just not good enough. All right. So then you said you don't think the Celtics are going to have a problem with Chicago. What about the winner of Washington, Atlanta, which I'll assume you think is going to be the wizard. I don't know what to think anymore. Atlanta, to me, the crazy guy at the bar that you kind of steer clear from. You know, like, they might get swept. They might beat you. They might hit 25 threes in the game. might decide to start trying

Dennis Shrewler who I don't even think it's very good might just all of a sudden turn it German Jeff Teague Milsaf can go off and that team scares me

it's just they're a wild card they've killed the Celtics in Atlanta they you know they've really turned it on against them and the Celtics Washington

is also not a great matchup for the Celtics because of their side you know because there's nowhere to hide Isaiah with Bill and with with John Wau.

He basically has to put him on Auto Porter and hope he doesn't kill you. Porter has to play it as well since the sake, but Ubra is somebody that, if Ubre is out there with Wall and Beal, where do you put Isaiah? Where do you put Isaiah is the dilemma of the South Dakota?

He's 5'7. There's no one for him to guard. 2009 Dwight Howard protecting the rim, or even DeAndre Jordan. They're just not built that way. So the teams that have two guards second attack, both of whom have size or strength or whatever. Those are the things they really hurt the Celtics.

I think it's a round-by-round thing. I would have to shock that the Celtics lost in five games in round two to either of those. Wow. Why are you so down on the Celtics? They got the number one team. I get the whole hiding Isaiah thing. But damn, man, it's worked out for 82 games. They were able to figure it out.

You just think in the playoffs it becomes too heightened and the team's going to expose it worse than they do on a regular basis during the regular season? I'm not down on the subject. I just, I've watched them all year. I know, I know what their limitations are. I think the East sucks. I think that's the best case you can make for them is that whatever team makes the finals, we're all going to be scratching their heads going, wow, they made the final?

Jesus, what happened there? How did that happen? So I think that's the best case for them. I think the other thing that's going to be really important for them. except for when they play in Cleveland because LeBron doesn't care where he plays. But I think the home crowd is going to be awesome. You know, that Celtics crowd loves this team.

It's going to be super loud. They're going to be able to push them, especially defensively at New Heights. I think he's not going to Celtics. Barker Smart just basically stopped making shots. Olick stopped making threes about two months ago. They have Amir Johnson and Jonas Jericho really shouldn't be in the rotation of a one-seat

under any circumstances. and then Jalen Brown, who really seemed like he was coming on there for a while, just tailed off. And I don't know if you can trust him in the playoffs either. So when he's going to be deep and really help them, I love Marcus. Marcus will go 0 for 7 in a game

and take the biggest three of the game. Like, he just doesn't give a shit. That's fine if it's game 50, but, you know, if it's games, then they're down 3 to 1, and Marcus Spart shooting with 50 seconds. But, you know, if you look at the line, when they have their five guys that they've started,

like the best five guys that they have, that's starting lineup. The numbers on it are really good. And I think that's the best case for it is when they have the Horford, Crawford, Bradley, Isaiah. And I can't remember what it be, there's one lineup where it's like whenever they play this lineup and they're together and they're healthy, I think smarts the fifth guy. But whatever that lineup is, that's been a really, really good plus minus, all that. You know, I do think they, what's weird is I do think they could beat Cleveland.

They match up really well against the cast for as strange as that sounds. Like, you know, especially the team they could upset. But I think Toronto is to them, that's the team I can't imagine them beating. Are you mad now that they didn't make a deal? Yeah, I am. I think they made it. I felt like they made a mistake in February. I understood the reasons behind it that Golden State.

one of the reasons you go the other way on it is who knows? You never know it's going to happen in the season. And they were close. And I did have a chance to get, you know, top two seats. And in my opinion, you got to make it. You have so many assets. You have so many fringe firsts on picks, second picks, and the two guys who crashed last year.

I'm not saying that's trade. But everyone keeps focusing on, oh, they should have traded for Jimmy Butler and all this stuff. It's like, forget that. Like, just get PJ Tucker. Get Bogdanovich. Get Ilysova. Eliasoba would play 30 minutes a game on this team. You know, that's what I didn't get.

They had two spots that they knew they had to upgrade. Jericho and Amir Johnson have to upgrade those spots. Can't have those guys in a rotation in the playoffs. How did they not get... The one that stands out to me is how did they not get Nerlin? Philly didn't want to trade Nerlin to the South Texas before they get down there. From what I understood, they just asked for like Avery Bradley

and I'm going to pick. Some crazy, here's what it would take. They had no interest in choice with somebody that, you know, they, that someone else was trying to them.

Even, even Ily Sovo would really help. Allie Sova's been good on Atlanta. Because Atlanta has, you know, five guys, five swing-minute type shooter guys that in any given game,

all of a sudden they start making your three, they're like, wait, who the fuck's that guy? Is that guy in their team? What do they got to do? You know, they have, like, Six of those guys.

All right. So we don't know what's going to have beat Atlanta, but I'm with you. It's a total wild card. But of the top three Cs... I would pick... Yeah, I would pick Washington in that one. But the problem with Washington

is their best lineup sucks defensively. Because their best line is going by Donovitch is out there. But that's, you can... He has nobody to guard. You can torch them. Their defense... They're very vulnerable.

Okay. So then the one that you think of the top three seed, if anybody is to have a big... problem with their opponent. You think it's going to be feasible that Toronto could have a problem with Milwaukee, but you don't think that Boston or Cleveland's going to have big problems with their first round. Yeah, you agree with me on Milwaukee? It's just a weird team. Yes. They're conventional in their athletic. And fearless, you know? And Janus is really, really great.

I mean, I had Janus second team all NBA. I thought this season, even though he's playing point card half the time. And everything's weird about them, right? They've got the awesome rookie in Brock then hopefully, you know, able to be awesome and contribute. But then, like, you know, Delvedova just gets on everybody's nerves. Yeah, you're right. Everything about them is. You know what I kind of like Thon Baker. I have no idea how old he is, but he does have some shot blocking,

rebounding athleticism that's pretty neat. I like him. That GM's going to run. Yeah. Yeah. Don Maker looks like he's going to end up being a player. This was not a great year for rookies, but, you know, they got him in the rotation. And that's a kid that, I mean, geez, we never even told him playing college or anything.

It's just everything about his whole deal is an odd circumstance. And even the fact that we call him Thon Maker, and I heard Howard Beck earlier this year after he wrote the big profile on him, it's like, what was it, my Kerr? And Thon Maker. Right. Which nobody is ever going to call him that, unfortunately. Well, we watched him play in high school. I'll start getting for eight years. You know, over the course. Got to take a quick break, and then we will get to the Western Conference.

All right, we're going to get to the Western Conference playoffs. But first, remind you, tomorrow night on HBO for Your Eyes Only, a Dreamville film. Grammy-nominated hip-hop star's second HBO special. Debuts tomorrow 10 to 11 Eastern Time. Exclusive presentation is a multi-narrative show that combines music performances, the intimate interviews documented through Cole's lens. It showcases songs from the fourth album as well as revealing footage containing heartfelt confession, concerns, and struggles of people in the South.

Providing a platform for subjects to feel like their stories have not been heard. Cole captures these stories in Baton Rouge, Atlanta, Ferguson, Missouri, Cole's hometown of Fayetteville, North Carolina, and his father's hometown, Jonesboro, Arkansas. Jay Cole's album, For Your Eyes Only, was released in September 16, debuting at number one, selling almost half a million units. The New York Times hailed it as one of the years' most finely drawn albums. Going on to Call Cole, a rap star without rap star trapping, a parallel universe champion. Tomorrow night, HBO, Jay Cole, for Your Eyes Only, a Dreamville film. Check it out tomorrow night. All right, Bill, so we got Golden State in Portland as the one versus eight.

How about this? Portland is 14 and 5 in Nurkich's 19 starts. They got a plus 5.3 point differential. Is that too small of a sample, or is it possible that Portland is a really outstanding team now, like that that does matter that they're 14 and 5 in those starts, and that they could pose a problem for Golden State or at least push them to where they have to play. Gold State has always had trouble guarding small guys. That's been the one flaw in their team.

Like, Kyrie is the one that was taking advantage of it the most, but, you know, Curry's not a lot of that guy. A lot of times like Clay or Iguzal is the guy that's the guard the Lilith type. So, you have that. And then Nurkich is not a great matchup for them. He's healthy, you know? Because their crunch time lineup is Durant and Draymond is the rim protected. It's a thing that happened the same day as game five.

So you know that's going to be a thing. And you know that Portland, if the coach is smart, he'll be like, they don't even, they think they're going to sweep us. They already gave Oracle away. Like they can do that whole thing. you know, I don't know. The thing was when guys come back from injuries, I don't think we realize how hard that it sometimes.

You know, like Kevin Love came back. It's like, Kevin Love's back. It's like, well, he's back, but he doesn't look like Kevin Love. Durant's not going to come back to be the guy we saw from November to February when he was just outrageous. Durant was, you know, I thought he was the best night-to-night efficient guy of the first three and a half months of the season. He was just every night.

flash and just turn that switch back on for the playoffs. So hesitations with them. The full of the team again with Duran out. Now Duran's back. How do they figure that out? It's not going to lose the point. You know, it'll be interesting to see Durant eases his way back in.

So if the right team can kind of throw a couple haymakers at them, and it's like, like Steve Nash said, you have a team that hasn't had all the reps yet in a big moment. And you have a big mom and everybody starts looking at each other. Like, all right, are you taking it? Am I taking it? What are we doing here? That's when you become a little bit vulnerable.

So with that said, I would step out. Spurs Grizzlies, I would tell you, for straight after seeing Tony Allen on crutches yesterday. Yeah. The benefits for you, I guess, are the team has an extra gear. Well, here's what I'll say, right? Because obviously I deal with this team all you. The Zach, the Zbo-Mark thing.

Yeah. Popovich made it his life's work. to not let Zeebo beat it. But Conley's way better now. I mean, listen, they need a Tony Island to slow down Kauai. But like in the 61 minutes on the court in the four games this year, Zbo and Mark killed them. They're like a plus 19 net rating.

And I know that sample size is small. But they always had like a Bobon or a splitter to go alongside Duncan that like Zibo couldn't score on. And now he scores on Aldridge. scores on Pau. He destroys David Lee. So, yeah, I mean, it would have to be this Mr. Zibo series, but if they got it, it would not be inconceivable if Kauai is by far the best player in that series. And then the next three best guys are Grizzlies players, Conley, Gasol, and Zibo.

And you have the DNA of a lot of reps against them in the playoffs. You beat them famously that one time. Right. And, you know, there's going to be a complete lack of fear. I also like when you play a team in the playoffs, whether it's football or basketball, where they have a best guy in the other team and one of the things that makes them great is to shut down, however. And yet there's nobody to really shut down on Memphis. You have the guys that matter on Memphis are guys that he wouldn't guard,

which is so weirdly, could this be the last Zbo Tony Allen season too? Another piece of this. And, you know, it's just like the last one for Grint and Grindrind, how much emotions are going to be part of that? What happens if you can somehow go up to three to two? All the emotions is the same. I certainly would not rule out Memphis. I'm also, I'm just not that sold on San Antonio.

I'm really not. I think about it this way. It's pretty interesting. Other than Kauai, that team was better three years ago. All of them, Gassal, Aldridge, Tony Parker, Danny Green, Manu. Patty Mills is probably the only one who's the same or a tiny bit better. Kauai's better.

And then you get into guys who've never been in a playoffs series really in a big role before. There's been first teams like this in the past that look good in the regular season and then got to the playoffs and then have the extra gear. And I wonder if that's going to be the case in time. Because if you only have to purpose in the regular season on a night-to-night basis, they're going to rack up tons of regular season wins. but when somebody can just make it their lives work to try to deal with them, you know. And you're playing them.

It's a little like a couple of those Patriots team post Brady ACL, but before they started going back to the Super Bowl, it's like 2009, 2010, like very good regular season, the infrastructure were, then the playoffs came and they didn't have another gear. Houston, Oklahoma City. For them, I don't think it matters. He's already in set a year. An extra gear. What's he going to average 40 and 20?

I'll say this, though. he tries to play the same way he played this season. They're going home and five. He's got to trust his teammates. That recipe has never worked in the playoffs. I'm going to hog the ball and do everything, and you guys are just my handsmith. That does not work at the playoffs.

Alan Iverson's calling in right now. Alan Averson did that during one of the talent poorest seasons gifted with some of the most unbelievable officiating of all time, not just near the end of that Toronto series, but then in the Milwaukee series, which was the crime against justice, and all the Bucks fans know what the talk I'm talking about. The Bucks were the best team that used to out here. I don't think if you took that Iverson team and put that in these playoffs,

they're like a seven-seat. The league's so much better now. You could never do that. In fact, we're watching somebody do it right now. So KC, the same recipe. No, I do think this, right? And this goes to the whole supporting cast, and I guess we'll see if you trust them or not.

like it's probably going to take this where I let's say I slot in Westbrook for 40 points a game right which that seems crazy but it may be probably not all right so 40 points a game right it's probably going to take 1 15

on average to win those games so like where are the other 75 coming from their way of winning it to me is rebounding defense to Westbrook that they got to they got to just dominate the board which you know when they have Taj out there with Adam

and then Westbrook flying in and getting rebounds. It's pretty good. It does seem like they get all the rebounds. You look at the end, it's like, did they rebound them? 70 to 30? So that's one thing. And then, you know, defensively,

Robertson on Hardin, he's not going to stop hard him, but they have somebody throw at him and Olen Depot in the backup plan. But I just think he's better. And I love their role players. The team, how it compliment each other.

I like the fact that has to take a break. Their offense doesn't suffer at all, whereas O.C. does. And it, you know, people, this is what I hate the, you know, some of those plus minus stats and when he's on the court off the court. Like, of course, O'KC's worst out of the court. They're the ones back of point out of the week, you know? Of course that's going to suffer. Gambling's day.

Clippers, Utah, at the beginning of the podcast, you were down on the Clippers, even though I said two and 18 or something in the 60 games. that Chris Paul was able to play this year, which was, I mean, they had a great winning percentage when Paul was available, but you're down on them. I've down on them. This is a great matchup for them. This is the team.

If you were the clippers, this is the team you wanted to play. Because they've had success. They blew the game late in Utah when they did just a crash band up. One of the things that really helps equipers to 8,000 fans from the other team in the building. I just don't have a ton of things. In a series, it would be like an English soccer match. You'd have 8,000 Westbrook fans in the arena, and it would really change the dynamic,

and I think it bumps. The quibbors just have a terrible. And in this case, like, you know, there's going to be 10 million jazz fans. Or, like, are there any jazz fans in L.A.? I think, so for that standpoint, they'll actually have a good home court advantage of Shellsum. And, you know, the Gobert-Dandre thing, I'd be surprised if they didn't win this series. By the way, if they didn't win this, what a way for this to end. I mean, to never get to round three.

I don't think Doc comes back. They have to choose Chris and Blake, all that stuff. So, pretty, the stakes are the highest in this series for the future of a team, I think. The Clippers don't get out of this series. That's it. It's done. They blow it up. After, you know, you had that podcast with Balmer earlier this year.

What did you think of him? I liked him. He's got a lot of energy. I think, you know, he basically admitted. I made some mistakes. The first couple years I ran this team, I just think I wish I could take back. I'm sure one of them was giving Doc the level of power that it gave them.

You know, it's a flawed roster. Austin Rivers doesn't make a lot of sense to me. To have just, they've never been able to figure out that small forward spot. They've had 100 people that they brought it. They've never had the right guy. Just Chris and Blake together, it just feels like it should work more. that it does.

Two plan B. All right. Last thing. Now that we know all the matchups in the way this is going to play out, bracket-wise, if it's not Golden State versus Cleveland than the finals of two.

State versus somebody different from these? Yeah, I mean, I already bet on Golden State Toronto just because of the odds. You know, when you make that, you're making a, I think it was 14 to 1 at the time. Or maybe it was more than that. Now it's like 9 to 1.

I can't remember. But I think the Raptors Rockets would be the best long shot. Yeah, because I don't think the person could be in the series.

I don't see anybody else in the conference beat of them. The Rockets are the one team could just get hot for four games. Hard income in two. You have the one game

where Lou Williams goes for 41 points, makes 10 trees, or gets to the line 20 times or something stupid. And then you have the one game to go and say just sucks. That's how they sneak it out.

that happened, but there's at least a roadmap for it happening. I think that's the only chance. And then Toronto, you know, they have a chance to just take down quickly. And it's the safest, smartest bet of all the teams. And I'm a huge fucking homeless too fast. If my team, if I felt good about my team, like my team, watch over, I'd just be surprised. The fact that they didn't do anything at the trade deadline, to me, that's like an indictment that you don't think your team's good enough.

you know, everybody else made a treat. Everyone. And the Celtics were kind of like, we're good, we're like a year away, we're okay.

Like, I don't understand how you don't do anything. So that tells me that they don't think this seems good enough. Well, one last conspiracy theory.

Bill Simmons is turning the Celtics single-handedly into the nobody believes in us one seat. I don't think I have that power. I think they're doing it

by the fact that they haven't really made three, because we all-star break. But our own general manager doesn't believe in us even. It's true. I'll say this,

it's a freaking lovable self-exam. I really do like, when they have it going and they're playing with a chip on their shoulder, they're fantastic. And maybe that's, we haven't seen the chip like this season as frequently as we did last year.

The guys, you know, Isaiah is one of the best 15 players in the league now. People know who Jake Cratter is. People know who Avery Bradley is. You go on the line, like, these guys have gotten a little respect. I haven't seen the night-to-night chip, but maybe in the playoffs, it. I can't wait to watch them all unfold this weekend. You demand, thanks, Bill.

All right, Verna. Take care. Thanks again to HBO. Jay Cole for your eyes only at Dreamville film tomorrow night on HBO, the Grammy-nominated hip-hop star second HBO special. The exclusive presentations of multi-narrative show that can buy. music performances with intimate interviews documented through Cole's lens. Special showcases songs for the fourth album as well as footage containing heartfelt confessions,

concerns, and struggle for people in the South. Tomorrow night, HBO, the premiere, Jay Cole, for Your Eyes Only, a Dreamville film exclusively on HBO.