The Ringer NBA Show - Title Pie at the Quarter Mark | Group Chat

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

Justin, Rob, and J. Kyle Mann are here to break down which teams are NBA title contenders and what percentage chance they have to win the title. Then, they put their lists together to create a consensus title pie. (00:00) Intro (6:30) FanDuel ad break (7:07) Title pie intro (10:42) Title favorites (24:41) FanDuel ad break (25:34) Amazon Prime ad break (33:36) Title contenders (50:09) Dark horse contenders Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and J. Kyle Mann Producers: Ben Cruz, Isaiah Blakely, and Victoria Valencia Shopping. Streaming. Celebrating. It’s on Prime. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I am Justin Varyer and joining me, Rob Mahoney, J. Kyle, man, back in action after the holiday break. Rob, how you feeling? Are you back into potting shape? Do you need to run a couple of windsprints before you did this one? I definitely do. I'm out of breath and we haven't even started. I feel bloated. I feel like the salt is coming out through my pores. Do you have any remedies for me? Is it just wind sprints? Is that all that I can turn to? I can't help you, brother. I can definitely feel my face as the week went on because I was just consuming so much sugar. I was doing like double pie days for multiple days, pretty much up until yesterday. I mean, yeah. So I'm feeling it. This is like Thanksgiving weekend is peak pie season. You're right, Justin. It's like on the night of, you're almost too starch inclined to really give dessert it's

due. And then over the weekend, it's like, yeah, I'll have pie for breakfast. Yeah, I'll have pie for a snack. Yeah, yeah, have pie for dessert. The numbers get on the board, Kyle. Yeah, I played pick. I played pickup on Sunday mornings at 8 a.m. and I knew when I went to bed. because, you know, we were hitting the leftovers. We had Thanksgiving on Friday, Thursday and Friday, and then leftovers on Saturday, and we nibbled on them at night, and I was like, this is probably going to be bad when I wake up. And when I was, you know, when you start to kind of, Rob knows this. As you get into your later pickup years, you're just trying to get the belts on the car warm before you start to take off.

And as I'm kind of moving around, I definitely felt like I was wearing one of those home-meck, like, pregnant suits where I was just kind of like, I could feel everything on the front of my abdomen moving. I was like, this is going to be bad. This is going to be really bad. But I don't know. I was definitely, I'm always a victim to like some really rich mashed potatoes, some sweet potatoes. And Megan makes a pumpkin pie that is world class, I have to say. Now we're talking.

But to divert quickly, did you have to do the Homek fat suit? Was this a part of your body? I'm just a fat suit. Or you could just say you're fat. I don't know. At some point, it's not a suit. You know, it's on your body, I guess. But anyway.

Interesting. This was available to high schoolers? Like, you all didn't have that? Like, you all didn't have the like, hey, here are the consequences of parenthood things. Like there's the baby with the little thing. I never had to do these things, but I saw my friends doing them because I never took home back. That's the one we had is we had the like animatronic baby with the sensor in it and like certain, you, you were literally like coupled up and then you had to like alternate taking the baby home and taking care of it. It's a ridiculous thing.

There's no way that people still do that. A lot of things that adults were doing back in the day. to keep people from having sex. Like, we'll create animatronic babies, but we just won't hand out condoms to people. It's just like, what are we doing? Group chat wonders. What are we doing?

What are we doing? Also, I have to, since we're just going through the PSA here, is I have to say, so I went to the movie theater the other day, and I could already feel the cold coming on here. I know that the theater experience is struggling right now, and we appreciate your patronage. But if you are sick, fucking stay home, because there was a person next to me

who was sniffling and blowing her nose the entire movie. And that's not only rude because it's disrupting the human experience that's being conveyed to you via the screen, but I'm definitely going to get sick because you stay the fuck home, watch Netflix, it's fine. Thank you for coming to our NBA podcast

to hear your takes on pie, on home economics and high schools in America, and apparently on the theatrical experience. This is why I go to movies late at night when nobody's there. I told Rob, I went to see Predator Badlands, 10 p.m. showing. I had my nachos. I had a double IPA. I was the only person in the whole fucking theater and it was heaven. I swear to God, it was Nirvana. I even walked in and was looking for my seat really carefully and I was like, what am I doing? There's no one coming. There's no,

Justin, this is how you can avoid getting sick in a movie theater. That's what you should do. I went to a 340 showing. And it was just a calamity of errors where not only did I have sickie over there, just fucking wrecking my immune system, but also next to me, this woman was doing like her own version of a Mr. Bean skit where she had like so many like concession stand items but like fell before she got to the seat and she was like falling over and also like thought that she lost her pocketbook but ended up deciding after like 30 minutes of discussion that she probably left it in the car and then that wasn't the worst one because the two women on the other end were talking

noticing a gender pattern here barrier well okay well I didn't pick my seat mates unfortunately but I'm wearing a WMBA hat. I support women, you know, I'm an ally. You're explaining, you're losing. That's what they say. But the two non-gendered people at the end of the row there, talking during the emotional climax. Like, what are you doing?

I'm just trying to feel emotions. You're out here fucking discussing what's going on. I'm a shusher. I'm a shisher in a theater. I will do it. Yeah. I will do it. Yeah.

I also went to the movies this weekend. A guy brought a full-on puppet. and before the movie started Are you just trying to one- Guys, I'm not making this up I'm not trying to one-up you I'm just saying, I'm just reporting A guy brought a puppet

And he was like taking pictures and video Like doing a little selfie cam I guess for you know For TikTok or whatever of him And his puppet in the chair I wish only to God that I were close enough To hear the commentary from him and the puppet

But sadly it was all at a distance And I was baffled by the entire experience So if you know this guy Who apparently reviews movies or something with his puppet, I would love, I would love a link drop. Were you seeing sentimental value? Or was the puppet seeing it? That would be a decision being made by that guy.

But no, it was wake up dead man. The new, the new knives out join. Gotcha. We had a puppetry, like, we still haven't talked to the NBA. Yeah, I know. Six minutes is the last thing. And you can actually give a degree out for that. It's like a major.

Well, yeah, it's an art form. But this guy was not participating in the art form. He was just a guy at a movie theater with a puppet doing God knows what. You bring an unwanted puppet into a space and you have entered into a different phylum of person. Like it's just kind of, I'm very dubious of you automatically. You got to win me back. All right, on that note, want to talk about the NBA? I would love to.

That was like the best seven-minute opening of the worst, but we'll find out. I'm sure people will tell this one way or another. You're listening to The Ringer MBA show presented by Fandul. Fandil now displays your bet directly on your phone's lock screen. And with the latest updates to the live events and player pages, it's never been easier to be part of the game. And Missouri, get excited because Fandall's coming your way December 1st. Download the Fandall Sportsbook app now and play your game.

21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus in present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-Gandler or visit RG-Helph.com. Call 1-888-8-8-8-8-9-7-7-7-7 or visit at CCPg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, so we're at the official quartermark of this season. I think it really is either today or tomorrow, depending on what team it is, 20-some-odd games for most of these teams.

So this is a good time to take a step back and assess, which means that we're going to break out a tried and true bit here on group chat. That's the title pie, which we usually wait until January, February to do. But I feel like now is a good time to bust it out in order to get a snapshot of where the title is right. races. Right,

Rob? It feels like we know enough data at this point. I'm starting to think about teams more in like significant long-term stakes. I like the early

pie check-in. And Justin, I have to say, one of your greatest creations in the history of this podcast, the title pie. It's not going to be

fully baked after today. This is more of a par baking sort of experience, but we're getting it ready. We're getting our crust settled. We're trying to understand how to break this thing down.

And it's the perfect way to come out of Thanksgiving pie season. Kyle, you're new to the pie. Any questions before we start a bacon? It seems pretty self-explanatory. I mean, I kind of, I did a lot of jiggering and reconfiguring in my,

figuring out how to get it to add up to 100 and, you know, because I'm not good at math. That's kind of what I was, that's mainly what I'm getting at. No, I just figuring out who deserve to be in the pie, which I guess is the whole point of this discussion, right? I'm excited about it. I think it's a great idea. Well, should we lay it out like very literally what we're doing? For people who have not experienced the title pie exercise before, Justin, how do we want to introduce them and walk them through it?

Actually, I'm curious if you don't mind if you might want to weigh it out here. I just would love to see someone else try to explain this thing. Okay, if we're taking the probability of who is going to win the NBA title this season, how do you break it down among the entire field of teams right now? And usually the point of differentiation for all of us is like even how many teams make that cut. How many teams are you willing to consider as actual championship contenders? And then how do you break up the percentages among them? Right. And the way we've done this in the past is that we're all collectively trying to make one pie,

correct? We each brought our own chops and how much of a percentage each one will get. But we will make one pie as a trio. You guys were actually mentioned before we got here or got onto the mics that you guys actually did it visually. Were you on like spreadsheets, just like, just plotting it in or are we hand-drawing these pies? I'm not hand-drawn a chart.

Come on, this is, this excels bread and butter. Why would I get in the way of it doing its thing? I would, I enjoy it just from my own satisfaction. I'll draw graphs and things sometimes in my, in my notes, because it's just, I don't know, there's something nice about doing that. But what's the weirdest, what's, how weird do you go with your, with your own charts for yourself?

I don't know, Justin, if you do this much, but Rob, do you go, do you go like X and Y axis with like scatter kind of thing? or you just, I'm mostly a line graph guy I feel like when I'm trying to make a point, but I'll occasionally go pie. How weird do you get with it, Rob? I'm just curious because it seems like you'd be capable of going pretty weird.

I mean, it's either line bar or pie. Scatter, I think you would reserve for like the deeper, like entire field of players kind of dig, but like why would I be doing that when, you know, Kirk can do it. Like, you know, there are many more qualified chart makers and mathematicians doing this stuff. We're just dabbling.

I only use notes apps and most of my notes are like, Jesus. I was watching Kason Wallis, like big hands. Cool. Those are my notes. It's worked for scouting reports for entire generations. Why do we need to change anything now? Yeah, that's right.

All right, let's start at the top here. So 100% pie, we're cutting it up. OKC Thunder, I imagine is getting the heaping portion or at least the biggest slice. I have them at 35%. What about you guys? I haven't at 40%. I think it's the biggest number that I have given to any team in the history of us doing title pie. Pie history.

We're making pie history today. And what better team to make it with in the Oklahoma City Thunder? Like how can you not be bowled over by their prospects, given everything that they've shown us so far? I think there are a lot of factors at play. The more interesting thing for me being a bit, obviously that's why we would continue talking about it. for me, I'm new to the pie game, you know, and for me it was sort of, we're talking about calibrating and things. I actually started it a little higher and I was like, well, that's when I started adding to the other teams, I was like, this is a little too high. So I brought it down.

But I think it speaks to sort of the, the temptation to inflate their chances to do it because if you're building on last year, last year they had a little bit of the show me thing of like, we needed to see it. Once we saw it, you have all these different factors about the development that we've talked about, all these variables that are just sitting there like stocks, just that are just appreciating and gaining value. And then you have the added benefit of Shea publicly being like, we weren't satisfied with the way that went. The way it ended, you got all these people chirping about like, well, Halliburton went down.

Indiana absolutely was in that game when he went down. Just shutting those people up, I think is another added layer of incentive to be like, these guys are hungry. They're not going to let up. So, yeah, I mean, I'm motivated to, that was my motivation to be like, yeah, they have a huge chance to win. Makes sense that they would make pie history. They're currently 20 and 1 as we're doing this exercise.

I saw the one loss that they had, and we've talked about in the past, where they were depleted more than usual. They lost the Blazers. They get their revenge back at home in Portland's Day. I wasn't able to go and see that, but they've won 12 in a row since then, the longest streak in the NBA currently going. J-Dub just comes back. And it just, they look seamless. He hasn't played particularly well, but Artenstein goes out. It doesn't matter.

Whenever they lose an all-MBA guy, whenever they lose like a critical role player, it doesn't matter because they have like four of these guys, just waiting in the wings. And so I guess the question more for me, Rob, is, yes, I think this team is a regular season juggernaut. I think going to challenge for the win record, if all things go well, unless they lose Shay or multiple guys all at once. But I think the bigger thing is playoffs and how they stack up and how they actually measure up against probably the next two teams on the list. For sure. I think they shut down defensively a lot of the actions that the Nuggets and the rockets are going to throw out there. And yeah, Houston's offensive rebounding is going to be a problem.

Yokic, you know, for as formidable as Alex Crusoe may have been swiping and holding his own in that matchup at times. And you can throw all kinds of stuff at him is an incredible puzzle for any defense to solve. I just think the way that the Thunder Guard gives them the highest floor, even in the playoffs of any team out there. And so, like, their margin for error becomes so daunting when they have that level of, defense. They have the MVP. They have the supporting stars. They have the deepest roster in the league. They're not perfect. And they certainly won't be in the playoffs. There's going to be ugly games. There's going to be moments where their series feel tight just by the nature of how they play and the ebbs and flows of their shooting and stuff like that. But a lot has to go wrong for them to

lose. And it's not just like one thing. It can't be one injury. It can't be one aspect of their play. They're just so well-rounded and ultimately have such a strong foundation. I can't think of another team. Tell me if you all feel this way, because I do when I think about the Thunder, I can't think of another team that has had an MVP level player on it where I realize to myself when I'm thinking about the team. It's not the thing that my basketball mind is drawn to first. It's the depth. It's the continuity. It's the shell. It's the defense like we talked about with Chet. It's all these things. And then I'll be like, oh, yeah, and they have the MVP on their team. It's just crazy. And I mean, I mean, remember last year in the playoffs, they had times where they would

kind of bog a little bit and we'd be like, is it that they are just, there's so many cooks that they're kind of being really deferential in a way? I don't know, are we past that. Do we think that they have learned their lessons from last year? Those are kind of outlying questions for outstanding questions. But yeah, with Shea, he's not always the first thing that I think of when I think of them, which is weird, but it may just be me. I don't know. I saw someone refer to their depth of wings as like having multiple drew holidays just all up and down the roster. And I think naturally we gravitate toward that type of player, especially for a top heavy roster because I don't know, that's kind of like the blogger sheet guy.

But obviously the defense is the strength of this team. And Shay just kind of adds the offensive punch on top of that. But you're right. It does feel like the defense is the superstar. And Shay is almost like the one beat in this situation. I guess because Shay is also in terms of like celebrity definitely hasn't broke through in that regard. And also the defense has been historic.

for this entire run. I think that's 103 defensive rating right now. But I think the one question I have in matchups is the size. Because it's the one thing that they lack, and it seems like they're reticent in order to go out and get on the trademark, even though they can go out and get practically everyone they want as a backup big man. I would be surprised if Presti Witten did that this year, especially considering the success,

especially considering the way that they want to play, spread out and isoing practically every guy there. And so that's why I was a little bit, lower in terms of pie with the thunder. I had them at 35%. Then I had the Nuggets and the Rockets because it almost seems like both of those teams are built to press on that one disadvantage. We'll see with the Nuggets with Aaron Gordon.

Pretty worried about the fact that this is another soft tissue injury for him. They've been absolutely gangbusters offensively since he's been out in those six games. And then the Rockets obviously have the strength on the boards. But that's why. So just to give the full pie for my top three, I have Thunder 35 Nuggets 23, Rockets 18, which is a little bit more compacted because I see that race as that, those three, but also I could also see playoffs dictating and matchups and health who ultimately comes up on top of that one.

Yeah. Ultimately, like, I mean, the size question with them is interesting, Justin, because it's like they do start all things being equal, Hardinstein and Chet together. And Shea is certainly big for, I guess it depends on who you're classifying as the point guard between, you know, he is offensively, Kaysen Wallace is kind of defensively. Lou Dort isn't long, but he's big, like he's bulky and strong. And like they have ways to kind of impose their length or their strength through unconventional means.

And so, yeah, next to a team like Denver or Houston, there's going to be ways in which they don't seem as big. But I think they make up for it. Generally speaking and certainly within those matchups, like I fully expect them to not only be able to compete with those teams physically, but turn it to their advantage with their speed, with their frenzy. with everything that they throw at you. But those are their biggest tests.

I think Denver and Houston, those are the teams they need to match up with to the point that I was thinking if they made it through the West and they were in the finals against an East team and J-Dub and Chet did not play, would I still pick the Thunder to win? And I think I might against basically any team to come out of the East.

Yeah. So here's the question, though. Like the counter to the size would just be the shooting and being able to stretch and force the bigs to play that game. Do the Thunder Kyle, have they satisfied any worry you have based on last year's postseason with their shooting success this year? Because they're kind of in the middle of the league at this point. And other than Shea, I think one thing you could say is like the offense has been good,

but not electric in the way that Denver's, for instance. Denver's number one in the NBA at this point. Houston has been there in the past. I think they've slid all the way to number two. And so it does, like, you could see a matchup kind of playing out in the way that you feared it might last postseason. I'm interested to see how much the nuggets go to, you know, I don't know if they would tip their hand on something like this early in the season, you know, assuming that this matchup could happen. I mean, if we see that, would we see the stroganoff lineup? What, wouldn't end up being the correct term?

Somebody gave us the, the meat locker. Strogonoff is good. Borgnon was the one that's a little wrong side of the EU. Yeah. Yeah. If we see the Borgnon line up against them, I think that's a... Kyle, come on, you got to get your beef straight. We are stroganoffing from here on forward.

You got to get your beef straight, man. That sounds like the worst advice before somebody goes to prison. Yeah, no, I think when I'm looking at the top... My top three, I had Thunder 40%, I had Nuggets, 20%, I had Houston, 10%. So I don't even really have them on Denver. That's more of a... They'll earn it. It's not a quality.

sort of an indictment on them, but I think they do. But something between the three teams that I think is interesting. When you look at the, I think the way the Nuggets and the Rockets defend a certain type of player, the Thunder don't have this problem. But I was looking at who were the guys who have amassed the most points against these two teams. And there are patterns. Like, if you look at the Nuggets, it's a lot of dribble shooter guys.

Curry, obviously, you can kind of throw it. He lights everybody up. But Booker, Aunt, even Reed Shepard had some big games, guys that can put some. Now, when Brown is back, I guess that's sort of a caveat there, that that could matter. But the other one that's interesting for the Rockets, there is a really interesting pattern among the guys that have given them trouble on defense. And that is Janus, obviously, Yokic, obviously, Scotty Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Franz, PJ, Jett.

So big, like, big plus-sized forwards who can handle the ball, which got me thinking, I was just like, is that a matter of Tari's maybe not tall enough to guard some of these guys? Katie's not wanting to like contain the ball as much. Jabari may be a better helper than he is an assignment guy. I'm just comparing the different defensive issues that these teams have. A, OKC can stress those things between those two things. And B, the thunder, the other direction, don't have the same types of weaknesses I feel like on defense. And I think that's another way they separate. I would worry, I guess, if I'm the Rockets and I want to go big in a C. seems like they've really settled on that as their identity.

And it makes sense because we keep talking about how they're over 40% in offensive rebound percentage. That's going to go down. It's going to go down. Currently 41.2%. So it looks like it's going on. I think that's before today's game. I guess like if you don't have another wing stopper out there, if it's Katie Reed now,

who's starting, we should mention, is look pretty good. They just kept him in the starting lineup after Katie got back. He's shooting the lights out. So I imagine he's going to stay there until they come up to some of these defensive issues. but it's Reed, Amen, KED, and then two bigs. If you have two creators like J-dub and and Shea and then Chet, like, who are we putting on him? You know? And so it becomes a little dicey at that point.

So you're right, the matchups perhaps don't favor them. And that's why I just keep going back to Denver, though. Like, Cam Johnson is finally cooking. If Aaron Gordon is healthy and that's going to be a big if, that's the one person. I don't know if the Thunder necessarily have an ultimate like counterbalance for, because he is that big bulky four that basically plays like a center whereas like he's gonna put chat in like the

straight jack he's gonna just like power bomb him through the tables there. I just seems like Denver does have the Trump card in terms of like just matching up as long as they can say half healthy. I mean that series is gonna turn into a dog fight, a blood bath like if OKC and Denver are on a collision course again

like it's a point in viewing for all of us and needless to say would be OKC's biggest test. I think I'm just a little more bullish on how they do it and handle it the next time around and how much they learn from the first part of the experience. We talk about that all the time with high-level playmakers like Yokic or like Luca. Like you don't want to show them the same thing too many times. What happens when you show OKC's defense the same thing too many times? What happens when you show them, you know, a similar format, a similar creator?

Putting them in a series against Denver again, I kind of think they would be the ones who come out the better for it of the experience of taking their lumps the first time. They were so young. They were so inexperienced. they were finding their footing. Denver, by contrast, was supposed to be the more experienced team, I think showed it in a lot of those huge spots, but ultimately,

like, doesn't have as much headroom on that experience. Like, yes, maybe adding Cam Johnson with the depth, that opens up some things. Honestly, just erasing the disastrous bench minutes might be enough to swing a series like that in and of itself, so I don't want to take that off the board. But I just feel really confident with where the thunder

are right now, including their ability to match up with and deal with a team like Denver. That's interesting because, yeah, I look back on that series, Kyle, and I think what if Aaron Gordon was healthy for Game 7? Well, sure. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of, there's a lot of variables there. I think, Rob, the thing about the bench thing is gigantic.

I mean, and you think about all those pieces that are playing with Yokic, who is the, I mean, at this point, is he the best, he's in the conversation for best floor raising player of all time. And he just gets value out of things that no other player can. And then, yeah, I just talking about just in what you were talking about with the matchups at the, the four and the five. I just feel like the nuggets have a lot of interesting options this time around with, of course, can Hardinstein check Gordon? I'd have to go back and just kind of watch, like, away from the basket. I just feel like that's an advantage where Gordon is sort of the perfect middle, crappy middle ground for both of their bigs, where he can put, you know, he can put Chet in the weight room. And he's just so much more, so much faster than anybody really that

plays that position and more athletic. So, if he's healthy and their bench is playing well, it's really hard to glean a ton from last year, right? Because Murray's even playing better too. Bringer NBA show is brought to you by Fandul. Hey, Missouri, the weight is finally over. Fandul Sportsbook is live in the show me state. Right now, new customers can get $5 and get $300 in bonus bets win or lose.

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seven days after receipt for all customer offer opt-in required each day. Refund issued as non-witrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt, max refund $20, restrictions apply, including token expiration, seat terms at Sportsbook. fendal.com. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move fast and Amazon Prime keeps you in control with fast and free delivery. We've all been there. Family plans are fluid. Somebody's not coming. Suddenly they are coming and you're excited about it. You want to get them a gift so you hop on Amazon Prime. Line that up with their interests and it's easy to do because Amazon has everything. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute

and it just can't wait. Need that last minute gift or holiday essential. It's on Prime. Head to Amazon.com slash prime to shop now. Yeah, I think we'll look back on this era. And obviously, Yokic will probably be first and foremost is like the guy. But I think there's going to be a lot of love and a lot of wondering if Aaron Gordon might just be the ultimate role player for maybe all time. Like we've talked about him and maybe like the Robert Ori sort of conversation. He definitely transcends that in terms of like his impact. Like Orr was much more in between would have games whereas Gordon is having series where he's swinging.

Ori's more of a moment guy. I almost feel like Gordon was a little more between the peaks. That's a great way of putting it. He just has those moments that you're going to see on a highlight reel before every playoff game. Whereas Gordon is just the perfect role player, not just for Yokic, but practically every team because he marries the size and now has the shooting to compliment that in a way that I can't think of another single player. Oh, he's a fucking winner, like through and through. And I think a lot of that is his development. It's him accepting that role.

understanding, not just like, what do you need for me when I become a Denver Nugget, but what do you need for me in every successive year of that process as the team is evolving? You need to shoot more. You need to handle more. You need to handle these sorts of defensive assignments. There just aren't many supporting players in the league who can do the breadth of all of that stuff. So yes, he changes any series he's involved in, and we certainly hope he's healthier sooner

than later. But in the meantime, like, that is a taxing thing, not having Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown for potentially, you know, weeks and certainly into. months of the season. That's a big deal. Also the way that these standings break up in terms of what a bracket would look like. Like, OKC is going to be the number one seed in the West. I think we can say that pretty confidently now, unless something absolutely disastrous happens from this point forward. But it seems entirely possible that, you know, Houston and Denver could face each other in the second round. Like, they could be taking one another out in a way that negates some of

their chances, at least for the purposes of the pie. Right. Denver and Houston are just like, Godzilla and Mothra going at it for seven games. Meanwhile, She's just going to bed at 8 p.m. and drinking milk and just having a nice whole evening. But collectively, I think we're zeroing in on kind of a theme here, which is between these three teams,

I would be very surprised if one of them does not win the NBA title. Kyle, when you were breaking down your percentages, it's not pretty similar to mine, which is collectively, I'm at about 70% between these three teams. OKC, Denver, Houston, 70% of the pie. Justin, was that about where you were in your breakdown as well?

Yeah, I was 35, 23, 18. Kyle was 40, 2010. Rob, what is, how do you have it? So I'm at 40, 16, 14. So, like, I see it as a pretty big drop from the thunder to where the nuggets and the rockets are. And some of that is just, I don't think the thunder are a team with basically anything to prove, despite what their nightly effort might show you about, like, their belief in that idea. Versus Denver and Houston do have stuff to figure out.

Like, they do have rotation questions. They do have young guys who still need to figure it out. They have just like the solvency of their half-court offense in Houston's case, despite how amazing it's been. But when really pushed and shoved, what does that look like? And for Denver, the questions are usually more defensively oriented. The re-thing is going to be in the playoff. That's going to be a thing for Houston.

Oh, no doubt. I do think they're going to have to start to figure out as brilliant as he's been. He's been his confidence is just to the moon. Defensively, that's going to be an issue. Because in any serious game that they're in, something that they have to account for. The question is, how much will it matter? Can they survive it if they're going to be really good offensively?

I'm glad you brought that up because he's just been absolutely cooking. Like I haven't, I can't remember a player that's gone from barely getting minutes to looking like one of the essential players on a championship level team. He's just absolutely shooting lights out and he's fit in and giving them a dimension that they haven't had before. But you're right. When we're doing the matchups, which is crazy to think because this is November 30th, we already flashed ahead to the Western Conference finals matchups.

But if you're facing the thunder and it's the rockets, I assume like he has to guard Dort at best. And Dort just like his bosom is probably weighs more than that Reed's entire body. He's just going to bury him into the basket. Shout out to the barrel chest. Yeah. You're not, you're not wrong about that. What goes on in that brain that person is the first? We've been asking for many years, Kyle.

I'm glad you can come in with fresh eyes because it just watches over me at this point. Not only the body part, but the word the term. I just, I'm, I'm not, I'm not trying to snag on that, Justin, but I'm a freak, but not in like the cool, yannis way, unfortunately. But to the Reed Shepard part of this, his emergence in that role that you were describing, Justin, going from like non-factor for the rockets to now like a pretty essential part of the rotation, to me is one of the central reasons why we have to consider them as one of the elite contenders in the league. It's the effect that Kevin Durant has had on this team is Alper and

Chang'oon's evolution kind of orchestrating and working as a hub. And it's read and maybe even to a lesser extent, Josh Okie too, who have like plugged really essential holes in the lineup. And now all of a sudden they just look really complete, really well rounded, certainly physically formidable in all the ways we've already talked about. But even just on an execution level, like they're just a tough team to reckon with. I'm not trying to sound to grieve, but you guys made fun of me again for shouting out Josh Akogi and you guys made fun of me for drafting AJ Mitchell last year. And I just want to circle back and say how you like me now, Rob. First of all, how you like me now?

No one criticized you for A.J. Mitchell. Justin and I's together. Okay. Just chew on that, man. That's all I'm saying. No, I would say Josh Akogi was going to make a difference this season. I did not. Did he show anything over the last three years of his career?

It's just like, no. Stadler and Waldorfing me? What is happening right now? That was you, man. You were talking like that. I don't know what that was about. I wanted, there's something interesting, though, about Reed shooting that I've been noticing. This is just a little, a little dorky.

The way Steph, I'm not comparing him to Steph. In terms of the shots he gets to, it's a little more the CP3 elbow stuff that he's been hitting. And the shooting is as fast, they're different players. So I want to be clear, I'm not comping him to Steph and I never have. But the way that the types of shots that he hits where he is coming off of those exit cuts where he's moving backwards and they, like, backpedaling into threes and hit. them. Those are shots that are really difficult to hit, especially at his size with the close outs that he's seeing. And that adds a wrinkle to what they do. That is just, they didn't have it last year. Fred Van Bleet wouldn't hit those shots. No. Well, Rob mentioned the balance earlier.

As we're recording this at almost 7 p.m. PT on Sunday, we've talked a lot about the offense, second in the NBA over the course of the full season. Currently second in the NBA in defense. Pretty good. Pretty wild. Yes. And also have note on this Sunday, they just sent Keante George to absolute hell today. And look, the jazz and Keante George are not like the playoff standard. But I do think it's one of those instructive things where it's like that borderline starter on your team that you really rely on or that guy coming off the bench who's been good for you all season, the Rockets are just going to X those guys out.

Like they're just not going to be big enough or physical enough or competitive enough to hang in a series against Houston. And now that they put all that pressure on you offensively too, there really is nowhere to hide on either end of the court. So, Rob, do you have anybody else? Because Kyle was at 10 for Houston, so he won't. Do you have anybody else with double-digit pie after this? I do not.

Yeah, I do not either. What's your next team on your list? My next team is I have two teams at 7% a piece. And they are, to me, kind of at the forefront of the Eastern Conference, the Knicks and the Pistons both, 7% of piece. You go east already here? Oh. I mean, we've already gone through 70% of the,

title going to the west. At this point, it's just like one of these teams has to get to the finals and then something could happen and they could win. I wasn't thinking about it that way. So that's, that's logically sound. Yes, you're right. I thought about it the same way, but I only have one team with 8% pie and that is the New York Knicks before I go back to the West. Kyle, who do you have next? I just kind of stayed. I mean, I don't go east until gosh. I have a flat tier here of Wolves, Warriors, Lakers at 6%. Oh. And then I get to calves at 4%. Yeah, that's my next tier.

And then it gets very slivery as we get down to the bottom. Okay. Why don't we start with the Knicks then? Because it sounds like Rob and I are in agreement that they're at the very least the next stop. Yeah. I think that not only are they the most talented team in the East, Justin, but they've shown that they have the medal and flexibility to get through multiple playoff rounds, which no other Eastern Conference team can say.

So they have a lot of kind of wind at their back historically in terms of, of what this core is. And then, yes, there's a lot of work in progress with the defense. There's still work in progress with the offense in some ways. But overall, I just don't really see like an overwhelming reason to think that the Knicks aren't going to be in the NBA finals. Like the Pistons have made a hell of a case, but they're going to be in, like, we've already seen how those two teams kind of match up and push each other.

Fascinated to see it if we get it again. But the Knicks deserve to be at this point in the conversation. Yeah, the offense is blistering. And that's the one thing that we probably didn't have an elongated stretch. of last year. And as Rob mentioned, it hasn't been particularly smooth. Even though the points are getting put up, they had 41 in the first quarter against the Raptors alone at home. But still, like it just without OG and Nobie, we should mention, it just feels like there's something there that could be the Trump card in the entire East race. And while the Pistons record suggests that they

are on another level, like two and a half games back, as long as the Knicks like catch a good stretcher, I think they could vault themselves into the top spot there. And also, it's nice to see Josh heart kind of play himself into being Josh Hart again. I guess Kyle, he's just the type of guy who needs to play 38 minutes a game and just like thrash around the court for for that long part of it is because the efficiency typically isn't there, although he is shooting the ball better than usual of late. But it just feels like he's the type of guy you want to throw out there to just gobble up rebounds. Like he is like one of those hungry, hungry hippos. And that's what he's been doing as a starter, four games, 17, 12, and 7 basically in 37 minutes. And so it's nice to see him kind of

be in the mix of all this because he was the guy I was worried about perhaps it had to be a little bit more diminished if they were going to be a little bit more refined offensive. Yeah, I guess if you're kind of looking at what he provides, it's sort of a statistical accoutrement where it's, if you're just looking at these guys. Get this guy out of here. I don't know what I thought about it before I was going to say it.

I was like, I know this will piss them off, so I'm going to say it. anyway um it sounds like a muppet yes the statistical accout um if you're if you're looking at most people i think people think in broad terms of like does a role player hit a shot does a role player make a cut and heart is so it's he's a little bit more of a little thing kind of a player where i if you wanted to make some kind of an argument for maybe it takes a broader sample to sort of see those things sort of like come to the to the bubble up to the surface but i think the other thing is for the Knicks that's a little more just obvious and on the face of this is they made a shift here

they're trying to draw more out of their offensive talent they're trying to get more out, grow offensively whereas they from developing and build upon last year but if you look at the other teams that are sort of in this conversation of the teams that hypothetically could contend other than other than the you know in Denver is there another team that really I'm trying to think there wasn't a coaching change

or stylistic change to this extent among the teams that are contending, right? I mean, E-May's in place. So the Knicks are sort of like navigating and negotiating all of those things too, so it makes sense that they become along now. I guess the only question in terms of that stylistic change is do you consider the Miami Heat

to be a title contender? And maybe we'll get to that part of the conversation a little later because they've certainly changed a lot. The Knicks have more pressure release valves to their offense. If you're comparing them to the pistons, it's just kind of like, does Kate have it going? And let's see how much, you know, Jalen Duren has leapt. The Knicks have more credible pressure release valves on offense, I think, than any other team of the news.

And hard is part of that. Like, when you kick out to him, defenses won't always respect him as a shooter, but he's good at counter driving and keeping the ball moving. Like, he's good at all that stuff in flow. And honestly, for the Knicks, if you're going to have Carl Anthony Towns, who remains a huge defensive liability, and someone that can be targeted, along with Jalen Brunson, who is a significant defensive liability and can be targeted,

you have to find these ways to be really competitive on the margins of games, and Josh Hart is so good at that shit. And Mitchell Robinson, when he's like an offensive rebounding force is so good at that stuff. And so if their offense is high functioning

as it is, even if it is kind of feeling it out at this stage, and you're getting some of that transitional play or some of the margin benefit, that is where Josh Hart can prove his worth to this team. and where he's really come to sing in these recent weeks for sure. It's a little disappointing that it hasn't been with Mitchell Robinson at center.

It's just like he's constantly dealing with injuries. And if you had a long-term concern, like he's always seemingly going to be dealing with those sorts of injuries. I do wonder if they start to like start to wonder about him at the deadline, getting someone a little bit more surefire that they can count on for those minutes, especially because he's going to be a free agent down the road. But we'll see. I mean, it's a good start and they're right there hanging with the pistons who I unfortunately don't have until I get to another East team and then the Pistons.

So I only have them with 3% pie. Kyle, would you have the Knicks at, by the way? Three. Okay. Three percent. And are they your highest East team, Kyle? Well, I'm just basically ranking the teams. I didn't even, yeah, we can see the error of my ways here.

It's pretty obvious. But, yeah, I mean, mine's your pie, man. Yeah. You got to eat it at the end of the day, you know, it's not our problem. Well, the way I just talked to ask you about AJ Mitchell, I would, I figure you're going to make me eat my pie, Rob. Yeah. So I have Knicks. I have a West team. I have the calves. And then I have the Pistons. I have the Caves at four, despite all evidence to the contrary. And the Detroit Pistons at 3%. I think with the Pistons is just more of like a, I kind of need more of a sample to believe in it. Whereas with the calves, at the very least, I've seen them just high octane. just hitting a stride. And I think you'd write a lot of the issues off they're encountering now to injuries. And if anything,

I do wonder playing through the injuries now, gets guys like Jalen Tyson in, gets some of these like role players minutes, gets the more Evan Mobley at center minutes to figure things out down the road. Now, this is basically turning into like the coin flip corollary where it's like, oh, they're injured now,

but they won't be later on, which is definitely not going to happen. But I could see it all coming together in a way that I believe in them as a title winner in the way that even with the Pistons as currently constructed, I'm not so sure, especially in the first year where we're taking them very seriously, that they could really win the title. And that's ultimately where I kind of drilled down on the exercise. It's fair. I think the track record for the Pistons, though, is a little longer than you give them credit for. Because that was a team that was like a foul call or a loose ball away from

like beating the Knicks, if not pushing the Knicks to seven at a bare minimum. Like they were right there in that series. Fearless. I mean, it's true. So, like, the core of this team has been there and has taken steps forward in really meaningful ways. And then on top of it, like, they're 16 and 4 through 20 games. And they have shown to be not just really incredible in this regular season, but really

balanced in a way that they were not. And frankly, more balanced than the Knicks, if you want to look at that particular comparison. The best versions of the Cavs can give them a run for their money in that regard. But who knows if and when we see that version of the Cavs? Who knows, as you alluded to JV, If a healthy Cleveland team is even in the cards for any of these playoffs, they just seem to always be fighting it by the end of things.

They get grandfathered into this conversation because the calves are good and we haven't seen them healthy enough to really like rule them out. But ultimately, like I just have a really hard time believing in where Cleveland is, even in knowing we've barely seen Darius Garland play this season. Even in knowing Max Drews has not played at all this season. Like they've been down in the rotation and all kinds of guys have had to step up. but I don't know. Like I don't know that if we saw a Cavs Pistons playoff series,

if I would feel great about the Cavs chances in that. Kyle, where are you on the Cavs? Similar. I mean, I just, but I have a hard time trusting them. It's, and also,

I mean, we've seen that they've had some struggles even when they were healthy. I mean, there's been people kind of taking them to task about Evan Mobley's, you know, supposed offensive leap. We've been kind of tapping our feet, looking at our watch.

Like, when is this going to actually happen? I had somebody text me the other day about like if anyone ever mentions Kevin Garnett and Evan Moble in the same sentence again, I'm going to kill them basically. And I think there's that. There's Garland Stain Healthy. I mean, I trust Donovan at this point, but it's just kind of like if we're going to have a Helio Donovan team in the playoffs, I don't I don't think the, he's capable of

spectacular things, but I don't think he's capable of overcoming that. Yeah, this is probably the best version of Donovan Mitchell that we've seen thus far. I was trying to do it out if Wemby or someone that we expect to be in the top five doesn't end up having the requisite number of games. Wembe is probably the prime candidate for that just because he's out right now. But like the five, it seems locked unless something disrupts it in terms of all NBA is Luca, Yokidge, Yonis, Yombe, Shea. Thank you. I think Mitchell would probably be the next one up. I guess Tyrese might be in the conversation.

Am I missing anybody else? and Steph, like they'd probably be in that conversation too. It would be pretty competitive. Once you get into that next group, there's a lot of guys who are pretty compelling. Did you guys see the video of Donovan Mitchell playing drums? Did you'll see this? No.

What was this? I think he was being dead serious, which more power to him. I love a confident person, but he was like, I think I'm like the best drummer alive. Like he was like being for real. It seemed like it.

And then what cracked me up was they had him in this commercial where they clearly had had someone play over the part that he played i don't i'll let the public decide i just was like so because he was newling around i was like does he suck i can't really couldn't tell but you know uh you got to go look this up i thought it was pretty funny no one knows i play this this is the most amount of people i played in the past that's like this is way worse than a ball game this right this is way worse so it's john bonham dave grull donovan mitchell top three that's That's the only it.

Bernard Purdy's got to be up there. But yeah. But Donovan Mitchell does not have drummer energy. Like, that's not his vibe whatsoever. It's true. It's solo artist who isn't supposed to take five minutes as a solo. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, that's kind of the trade-off here. He's been absolutely electric to start. But I do wonder when Mitchell is putting up numbers at this rate, I often find the trade-off is the offense doesn't have this sort of organization that it needs to. And I will say when Garland has played most of the time today, notwithstanding. They got kind of handed against the Celtics. They stormed back late and made more of a game, but they started out really eyes cold, just looked completely flat in a game that I was kind of expecting them to really need to prove themselves

because the Celtics in their own right have kind of been flying onto the radar a little bit. Garland's been good. The offense has been really good when he's on the floor. The defense has been very bad when he's on the floor, but he just seemed completely flat to start with. And so I don't know what to make of it. It just seems like they need Mitchell to be on this other level, especially because Mobley is so timid and doesn't seem like he's the type of guy who really wants to take his next leap by the throat, KG style.

He's more like, oh, let me work on my mid-range jumper and really refine it as he puts his pinky in the air, unfortunately. So they need Garland in order to have the counterbalance the Mitchell. But then you're getting a lesser Mitchell. And so it's just very confusing to me. Like there's a lot here to like Rob, but ultimately it's never. as good as you want it to be. Yeah, I'm getting that vibe from the two of you who are just turning your noses up at the defensive player of the year who's also quite good offensively, admittedly not

Kevin Garnett. Like, Evan Mowgli is really freaking good. I don't know why he is the poster child for what all that ails the calves when he is the guy who's out there and playing and quite good and anchoring their defense. So Evan Mowbly innocent, as far as I'm concerned. Come off. You nodded when I said that. So you don't even. He's not Kevin Garnett. No, He's not having Garnett. His leap, his offensive leap. I mean, it just hasn't. He's putting up like 20 and 10 and is one of the best defensive players in the league.

I don't really see a problem with that. I mean, we're talking like one percent or stuff here. Like, we're putting expectations on him that we typically don't thrust upon anyone except for like MVP candidates. But that's the ceiling. Especially after last season seemed like he was on the verge of being that guy. And we should mention like he is broadening out his. repertoire. The midranger is more of a part of it. He's taking more threes than ever before. And so perhaps this is the steps, like the slight step back to get to the leap forward,

because his numbers are pretty similar to last year, but to not see any like profound progress, especially while Allen is out and he's playing more center. It's just kind of like, all right, it's just always a little bit slower than you want with him, which is frustrating because this is the real, take the season by the throat season for the calves. And it's just been kind of flat and that was the overall concern after so many playoff disappointments. That's a fair objection. And it's the reason why when things start falling out, Donovan Mitchell is really the only guy who picks up the pieces and then has to push his usage to ridiculous extremes, basically

every single time. He's quite good at it. But as you mentioned, Justin, it does flatten them out in terms of the way they execute. It does limit the impact of the system that drove so much of their regular season success last year. And so then you end up with just like another version of a Cavstein that's running into the And I don't see, we haven't seen anything yet to suggest that they have a way to mount that wall. And maybe they'll get there by the end of the year.

Donovan Mitchell has been on record saying like he likes this sort of challenge for them. He likes confronting it and figuring out ways that they can be better. But now they have to go out and do it. And it's pretty tough to find that as a team collectively, especially when guys are in and out of the lineup all the time. Also the blue LeBron era throwbacks, which goddamn or old, that's a throwback now. but on the other hand, those are sick. They should wear those more often. I do like them.

Now, the wizards bringing back the gold, absolutely not. No, I like the gold. It was more of a copper, right? It was kind of a, like the Gilbo era, like the, we buried it for a reason, you know? I was kind of liked them. Don't dig that up, please.

Not going to lie. I always liked them and not even the retro thing. So I had the calves at 4%. Rob, you had them at 3. I also have them at 4%. So I have Knicks and Pistons 7%, Caves at 4%. Kyle, what do you have the calves at?

I said it already, 4. I'm sorry. She's trying to get in accounting here, my friend. Where do you have the pistons? They're further down my ranking, so they have a lower number, but they're at one. I have a flat tier at the bottom of 1-1-1. Yeah, but that's not possible because of these.

There's 16 and 4. They're 16 and 4. You're also thinking about what's their likelihood of beating a Western conference team is another factor of this too, which is kind of what that was the ranking thinking here is it's low. I just don't, you know, based on what we were talking about, like the things the Knicks have in their roster construction versus some of these other teams. I just feel like the Pistons is awesome as they are and as much fun as I think they need to figure some things out as we were talking about on the potluck. Like if they go get a Lowry marketing. Sure. It's that kind of, that kind of thing is the, those are the teams to me that are really interesting, which is you're figuring in health, but you're also figuring in there are some teams that could climb up and get a bigger piece of the pie if they make a move like that at the deadline. But that's also baked in to the initial piece of the pie. Like the fact that they have that, if you have assets to make a move, then maybe you get a slightly bigger slice than the teams that are theoretically just as good as you, but don't have those assets.

They're the growth stock, I think, of this entire exercise where you look at the success that they're having now and you say, there's a lot of ways that they can get better even without having to swing for a trade. Ivy working his way back into the starting lineup perhaps. We're playing a full a lot in a minute of minutes. Tobias Harris and his own right hasn't played a lot. I mean, Assar still has a lot of room to grow, especially offensively. Holland is out there young and still figuring things out. Kate hasn't shot the ball particularly well.

They'll probably get there eventually, I assume. And so like there's a lot of little things to say like, oh, they have this great record. But I actually think they're going to be better if the record doesn't necessarily show it. Probably later on when all these things start to click, if they do in deep. click. Having said that I just ultimately kind of fall back into the like, do I see them hoisting the title in this year? And that's why I have met three. So I don't know. I just, I just don't believe it for this year. It's probably like a, my own lack of imagination. But right now, I'm leaning on the, uh, the veteran teams and cabs and nicks. I mean, you're just sounding like someone

who needs to get bodied by a beef stew screen. Like that, I just, I just need him to lay you out, just in to knock some sense into you. That was my kink. Yeah. Yeah. It was just going to say. Okay. First of all, it is your kink. Like, let's not, let's not make this a hypothetical. Like, we all know who you are, and we're not here to shame you for it.

I don't know what that means. Get that weighty bosom on your straightened beef. All right. I've got to ask a question here. Mm-hmm. Where do the Spurs figure into everything for you guys? Did they get a piece? Because they have some pretty massive outstanding,

variables that could come back into play for them and make them interesting. So I have the Lakers as the next team up getting the largest percentage of pie from the West. I have then the wolves, warriors, and then the spurs. So part of that is just because injuries. And I can't remember a team not only dealing with these sorts of injuries, but also trying to wed its two best players together and actually get them on the court for a significant amount of minute allotment. like in December practically

and being like, they're going to win the title. And so I think history starts to play a factor in this. But I only gave them 1%. I gave the Lakers 5. I gave the wolves two and I give the Warriors one. The Warriors, I just like, I can't make heads or tail of at this point. I did not give the Warriors any pie whatsoever. That is not a championship team.

Even though it has many championship players and coaches involved. Like, that's just not what it looks like. I gave the spurs 0.5% of a piece of pie. You always break out the percentages or the decimals. Look, sometimes all that's left is like the crumbs at the bottom for that everybody else left behind. And you just got to go to town with what you got. Ultimately, Kyle, you're right. Like the elements that they have working for them are exceptional and notable to a degree that San Antonio could walk into a bunch of different series and feel like they have the best player in the series.

That is a crazy place to be for a young team. they're so young though and they don't know what they're doing really at all in terms of playoff execution yet and so until I see it even a little and just like seeing them go through that process I don't know how I could bank on them to even have a 1% chance of winning the title Kyle you raise your hand yes I will assign you the home-mec assignment of carrying the baby home and also what is your question I'd like to address the chair they have one guy who's been in the playoffs who's done a lot of work in the playoffs granted he kind of of notoriously missed the last shots in the playoffs.

Harrison Barnes. They also have Aaron Fox. They have some guys who have been in the playoffs, I will say. But I will also ask you this question. Where do I have to draw a line on the standings to determine who the Spurs couldn't beat in a playoff series? Who do you think they are capable? Because do you think if they got in a series, if Vic is hitting on all cylinders and

they're playing well, that they couldn't? Absolutely no chance couldn't beat the Rockets. Like it couldn't happen. Is that out of the question? I mean, like the Warriors, Lakers, like, yeah, they could beat them in a series, but yeah. But it's not can you beat the Rockets in a series? It's can you beat the Lakers and then the Rockets and then the Thunder? Like the overall layout is what I don't believe that the Spurs can do.

I think they can push and challenge almost anybody. Maybe not to beat them, but make it a super competitive six game or even like squeeze out a seventh game. That's within their power to do. I just don't think teams as young basically ever win four series. reason in a row. To Kyle's question, though, which I think is a good one, my line of demarcation is at the Lakers. I think like if things go right, if Wembe is clicking, if there are any sort of bumps in the road with Fox and Wembe and also working in Harper off the ball on top of that, and then Castle, when he comes back, there's just so many variables on top of variables. I don't know that they would win a series

against the Rockets, if only because like the Rockets do, if Yson is back healthy, like they have the big wings in order to throw on Wemby and kind of impede his dribble like teams have had success marginally to start this season. And then you have the big is waiting at the rim for the downhill drivers where that's where a lot of the supplementary power is really coming from in Castle and Fox in particular. So it's really like, okay, Devin Vassell and Julian Champany and all these shooters, like, you have to beat us. And like Harrison Barnes, who actually is shooting lights out this season. It's just like, oh, we're not going to just give you the corner that you've just been sitting in for practically two months at this point. Like, you actually have to move and then

shoot. And so I think it'd be pretty nice. I don't think they'll beat the Rockets in the series. But to your point, like, I think they would give a lot of teams a lot of guff. And so that's why I gave him the 1% pie. But it sounds like Kyle, you were higher in the pie. I had two. I give him a 2%. But all that. Kyle sounds like you're really good. Would you get it to? No, I just so far apart. maybe maybe my wimby fear and respect just needs to be recalibrated a little bit because I'm just like I don't know some of the highs that I've seen and the fact that we haven't seen them kind of get together as a team I just have I just have a healthy fear a healthy respect for for what he's

capable of and defensively especially like in a series it's just it and they have a lot of weapons man if they even if they're mature players play great their young guys give you a little bit. I guess I'm just kind of, I'm a little, just keeping an eye on it. I think that fear and respect is good. I would just say to keep in mind,

like, for some reason, the analog we bring up all the time with Wemby is Steph, because it's like they are similar freaks on opposite sides of the ball that are just kind of breaking the game. And Steph had to like run into the Spurs head first

and then run into the Clippers head first. It's like you just have to take that a little bit in a way that I think we've seen Wemby struggle as you alluded to JV with like some of the dribble pressure and some of the double teaming. I mean, I'm not saying he's going to struggle

in a playoff series, but there just is a learning curve that he's going to have to go through and that all of these young guards are going to have to go through collectively and they're going to be better for it, but they're not going to win the title this season, even I regret to say,

at a 2% clip. So Rob, who do you have at the top of this, like, lesser West here? So I have the Lakers and the Wolves both at 4%. Okay. So you're higher on the wolves.

I mean, I think we just have to show a little respect to a core that's made back-to-back Western Conference finals. Like, they know how to do this. That's why I ultimately gave them the two, but based on recent results, which the past few games have been better, we've actually won close games. Not just that. They have finally beaten winning basketball teams. Congratulations to the Minnesota Timberwells for joining us this NBA season. But that really is kind of like the debate right there where it's just like, oh, you really do need to just get over this weird little hurdle. that you found yourself in

and perhaps like the bench is something else we could talk about because those bench units have been atrocious especially defensively. Yeah. But a lot of the 2% is coming from just muscle memory because like ants had it in moments. I thought like to finish off the game against the Celtics

was was pretty key for him because it's been a while since he had that. Basically like bobbled the ball and then hit a dagger shot which I haven't seen probably ever. But like this we keep asking Ant to be like the sun, the star and the moon and to do really just, just like make good on a lot of those Jordan comps, as tepid as they might be to begin with.

But like at the very least to start the season, he's always been like, now I'm like just going to cruise through this. And he's doing that again. And so perhaps it's just timing. Perhaps it's just the recent results of struggling against good teams. But I'm just a little cold still,

especially in comparison to some of these other teams where you see like the ball pinging Kyle between LeBron, James, Luca, and Reeves. It's like, yeah, the defense is going to be a problem. But like, holy shit, like, especially if they're keyed up to play that team again next year. That's why I leaned Lakers. Two questions.

First one, do you think that the wolves, true or false, the wolves have the most a game by going and get in another credible ball handler at the deadline? They got to be among them, right? Like the backup stuff, they could really, really use it. Most of gain amongst this set of teams or like overall? Yeah, among this group. The teams that could really, I mean, they could level up in a serious way. I think if they went and got, Derek White's the name, everybody always says, but I mean, I was like watching Peyton Bridger.

I was, there's no way they're going to pry him away, but just somebody, somebody like that. If they just had one more guy, because Ant is just being, he's a little bit better when he can sort of float between those two positions and come on and off ball. But when he's being asked to be the sun and moon and stars, as Justin's poetically said, it's, it's, it's stressing him in a way that, you know. Yeah, I just, I just, I was just curious about that. The other one was, has a team ever had two guys average 10 assists? Because it feels like the Lakers could do it. Has anyone had fucking phenomenal? Three guys to average 20 free throws a game?

Because the Lakers might do that. Okay, all right. Just, yeah. I'm just saying it could happen. It just seems like LeBron is even kind of chilling and passing in a different way from the past. But, I mean, I think their first couple games, they were both averaging 10. I think it's, I've been just kind of keeping an eye on it. It's a little bit of an anomaly.

The only time I could think that it was possible was like hardening CP3 in that 1718 range, but they were doing so much ISO and stuff. It just wasn't it wasn't conducive to that. But it's a little statistical thing. The Lakers are just really fucking good. In a way that I'm like still trying to wrap my head around exactly what they are as a playoff team. We see them right now present tense. We see what these guys are doing playing off each other.

It's phenomenal basketball. They have ultimately the creator who is the best weak link hunter. in the entire game in Luca. Like, he will find your guy who cannot guard and drag them to every single action until you take him off the floor.

They also themselves put a lot of weak links out there. And so if you are subscribing to the theory that this is what drives modern day basketball. It's like, can you have a stout lineup that cannot be targeted? The Lakers are not the case study for that. And frankly, to the point that,

like, Rui Hachamura is not allowed to have a bad game. Like, this is a team that leans really hard on, like, Gabe Vincent and Marcus Smart, and, like, first to be healthy and then to be good. And so if those things are not all clicking at the same time in a playoff series, I just get a little concerned. So the death and the defense are kind of my biggest areas of consideration for them.

But what they can do offensively is sort of beyond reproach. And as far as the playoffs go, is tailored exactly to what should drive you through multiple rounds. Yeah, Kyle, the Lakers might be the other option if we're not saying the wolves are the team that needs to go out and get somebody because it seems like the Lakers are a prime candidate as well, if only to solve the defensive concerns that we've been lamenting over for practically a calendar year at this point. I can't tell if it's just recency bias and seeing these guys all on the floor and clicking and looking so good. And LeBron

getting past the sciatica, I'm just like, goddamn, like, I only see the good right now because the defense has been pretty suspect, I will say, to be kind thus far. And I don't think DeAndre Aten's own sort of like side emergence is really going to help all that much. At the very least, you have perhaps a big body who will play capable minutes. That's one thing. But they need someone to fill out the wing rotation, to have any sort of, like, defensive stopper in there. Because I think that we're ultimately going to get back to Occam's reason worth this team where it's just like, who is guarding anybody? I guess the one Connor to play devil's advocate on my own point would just be like, now Luca is at a different level. He's clicking and you could tell because he's arguing with the refs way more.

I think I give him another two or three weeks before we kind of like just let all the sad and good tidings. we had for how sad he was for a while and just focus on the fact that he complains every two seconds, but it's a whole other issue. But he is engaged, Reeves looks reborn and re-engage in a way that he wasn't even last year when he played really well. And then LeBron's just worked in seamlessly. And so, I don't know, this is the discussion in my head. Where do you fall on that, Kyle? I was going to say, is sciatica ever really, sciatica is kind of like Vecna, right? It's like it does its damage. And then is it ever really, Rob hates Stranger Things so much. I'm really picking you. I don't hate it.

It's just like it's in a relevant presence in my life except when you bring it up. It's like he's really ever gone and then it comes back with a vengeance. And it's, yeah, when you look at the perimeter defensive stuff, it's like you wish you could get more at a Jared Vanderbilt. For instance, on that, you know, Cam Redis, they thought for a while was going to be a part of that. And that fart sound went away. And then Dorian Finney Smith inexplicably wants to go, wants to leave. Or they could have had Josha Kogi, who I would have been a, you know, a nice swap in there. That was a joke.

But, no, I just think. is it though? Clearly there's some truth to it. For comping them together. Luca is just, I just want to say, Luca is like one of the all time creating a shot that really just did not seem like it was there. He does that so often where I'm like,

there's not a shot there. And Luca just disrespectfully shoots it and whoever is in front of him's face. And just the way he manipulates the game, I just feel like in a playoff series, they are going to burn really bright and have an incredible moment. and like losing five maybe you know i could see that just happening um it could be it could be an all-time

fun to results like imbalance in terms of of how fun their games could be and what it turns out to be success wise i also we didn't even really mention him in the rocket segment but like dorian finney smith will play basketball at some point and we'll be a part of their team uh so like that's a great rotation that is a potential to get even better and yeah the the lakers do still miss players like that i know for all of their success like they are ready to turn the the page. They are rightly like talking their shit right now as they take care of business against like a pretty soft patch on their schedule. They're really good. But Justin, you laid it out. Like not only are we holding the superstars to the one percent or standard. We're talking about

like who can make an actual full on title run, not just make things interesting, not just be feisty, not just upset or like, you know, perceivably upset one of these teams like Denver or Houston, but who can actually make the run? And I think the Lakers have a shot, but they just have so much to get through to get all the way to the finish line, as do the wolves. Like it's just, it's hard to bank on either of these teams with a significant percentage of pie just in considering who they would have to beat to get it. So I had them at five, Rob had them at four. Kyle, where are you on the Lakers?

I had them at six. Actually, I gave the warriors a little more benefit of the doubt than, than you guys did. What do you have? Just because I had the wolves warriors and Lakers in a flat 666 number. typically associated with me. But, so, yeah, I gave, I had them all kind of lumped together. Justin, you've just been like a GIF machine this season. I don't know what's gotten into you.

Hey, it's GIF. You're playing to the camera. You're ready for the, the 4K treatment. That's right. Just put me in a little like shoulder content box next to Stranger Things and you get the full devil's offering, I guess. I can't wait. Wow.

So six for wolves and six for warriors. Is it just title tendons? Just because I can see them turning it on and having a run. I mean, but they're doing the thing that they said they didn't want to do this year, which is chasing it, which I know we might talk about that we might get to the cup on this episode, which is kind of an interesting,

like chasing it, trying to build something thing. The warriors are just in that, but I just have a hard time ruling them out just based on, I don't know. I got to see them be killed once and for all, you know. I'm not saying that they're dead. I am simply asking you as one podcaster to another,

which of the Warriors rotation players are good? And I'm asking because, like, I don't know. Come on. No, genuinely, I'm watching them. I'm watching Brandon Pajemski, the night-to-night experience and being like, what is this dude's deal? And why can't he simply string together cogent basketball for a week at a time?

And you could ask the same thing, up and down the route, anyone who is not Steph or Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green. I simply do not know what they're doing. or honestly Will Richard's also innocent. Everyone else, I simply don't often know what they are doing. Gary Payton, he's always there in crunch time, no matter what. But that is kind of a damning detail. Like I say that with all due respect to Gary Payton, who's very good at what he does,

but also incredibly and obviously flawed as a player, he is there in crunch time because there's like no one else that Steve Kerr trusts on this team. Yeah, my head is kind of spinning on where we are with Jonathan Kaminga and whether or not he's buying in or not or if he's on the team, if he's healthy, if everyone's behind him, if they're not, but they're pretending to be, it is a real roller coaster and it seems like

everyone's getting pretty tired of it. But you're right, I guess if we're going to powering the rotation players after the big three, I assume, are in their own separate category, although even within that category, they're just not available all the time,

including stuff who's not available right now. Who's the most reliable? Is it Moody, maybe? Is it? I don't know. Also, also live correction. Apparently, it is Will Richard. We've been going back and forth all season on Will Richard versus Will Richards.

We regret the error, Mr. Will Richard. It's the first time you got one wrong. Sorry. We'll let a slide. Thanks. It's probably Will Richard, but if you're grading on, like, if you're not grading on a curve, because Moody's an actual starter who has a more significant role. Sure.

I would say Moody, but you're right. All the rotation stop gaps that they were hoping for, just haven't really worked out. Horford's available whenever he's around. No one doesn't exist. He's just the dust in the wind at this point. Or at least is still rehabbing and working his way back. Yeah.

There just hasn't been enough healthy and consistent in anything in terms of the supporting castes on like an upward trajectory where I feel like, oh, by March and April, they're definitely going to have it all figured out. I'm more worried about the opposite, where by March and April, what's like, is Steph going to be run into the ground? Is Draymond going to be run into the ground? Is Jimmy going to be even more cantankerous than usual?

I'm worried about all that stuff with Golden State at this point. They feel like a fairly, like, mediocre basketball team to me. And every, all of our indicators right now say that that's kind of where they are. Yeah, I gave them the 1% just out of deference, just that of like the stuff factor. But you're right. I guess like they have motivation to go out and swing something as well. just not easy considering all the contracts that they have at the top of their books right there with Jimmy Steph and Dremond. So we'll see. Did anyone have anybody else getting pie?

I do. See, while you guys are dishing out to the Warriors, like, here's your 1% for old time's sake. I'm trying to like galaxy brain my way into like, okay, what happens if things get really weird, you know? What happens if we have another breakthrough run through the Eastern Conference like what the Pacers went on? And so I'm, I'm dishing. out, I would love for you to guess, Justin, what do you have? Are you going to say the Raptors? I give 2% to the Toronto Raptors. I don't see it.

I don't see it. Look, I don't necessarily see it. And frankly, in terms of an East team breaking through and then actually giving a West team a run for their money, I think the Knicks and the Pistons and probably the Cavs too, just like have a straight-up better shot to compete in a series like that than the Raptors do. Toronto might just be like drawing dead against a good Western Conference opponent. if they were to make it to the finals,

which would be an incredible result to their season. But the defense is really legit. Like the offense has been good enough for long enough that I think we have to take it at least fairly seriously. I just think that they've been a very solid regular season team to this point in a conference where that might be good enough. Like that might get you through two rounds in the east. And if you can get through two rounds in the east,

who's to say you can't just kind of headbutt your way through a couple more? Let me get this straight, though. In this hypothetical that you're that you're suggesting here, a young unproven team is going to win multiple playoff rounds and get to the finals. If they play in the Eastern Conference, Kyle, yes. Like this is the threshold. If you play in the East, you have so many more allowances in terms of how flawed your team can be,

how young your team can be, who your superstars are. I just think that you have a lot of give there. Who's the worst team in the West that could win the East? The Utah Jazz. I'm kidding. It's not actually I am fucking with you

but it's look, it's a severe gap. We gave 70% to three West seams for a reason and that's not even including the Lakers and the wolves

and the warriors and all of them. I want you to close your eyes and just go with me here. Literally or what do you want? Yeah, please. Fuck it.

All right. Let's do it, Justin. Take us there. It's mid June. Confetti is falling. The songs are playing. We are the chival.

champions, but it's a Canadian inflected one. And so it's like, Jeanne are the champions. They don't play in Quebec. Well, close enough. And Adam Silver is here to announce the NBA Finals MVP award winner. And it's Brandon Ingram, right? Can you picture that?

No, you can't because it's never going to fucking happen. Look, I am not the person to picture that particular outcome. but I think that the Raptors deserve more acknowledgement for their play to this point as a legitimate team to be taken seriously than a team like Golden State does. You're just trying to get a free meal in Toronto right now. No, I just think. Let me tell you. I don't think that's happening any time soon.

We got Danny Chow on our side. We can find something out. No, they're going to get, they're one of those teams that I think is going to move into the consciousness of the broader NBA fan and get, I think in the Cup specifically, I think they're going to have a chance to because. you know, like we were saying, we're going to devote more time to that event on its own. But I just think there are types of teams that are chasing it, like the warriors who are trying to, like, say, can we win something? Can we prepare?

And then there's a team like the Raptors who are trying to learn to win together. I think, like, you all, it's very unlikely that they're going to do that in the playoffs, in my opinion. But, yeah, I think they are better than people realize, I think, and better than I think we gave them credit for in the early in the season. Oh, for sure. Yeah. When we do a follow-up to this episode, The Taken Seriously Pie, they will have a very high percentage. I'm just saying in the...

If you take a team seriously in the East, they might just accidentally win the Eastern Conference, which is why I also gave the Miami Heat 1%. And I also gave the Orlando Magic 0.5%. 0.5. I gave Orlando and Miami both won. I think they have an outside chance, but they have a chance. I gave both of them zero.

Zero. Yeah. Do we need to collaborate on a final pie here? This is where it gets pretty tricky. Yeah. How do we want to make this compelling podcasting? How about we do the math and then we zip through by magic of editing? And so the listeners will only hear the final version.

I love that plan. All right. We just did some math. You're hopefully hearing some very wind-shimey music that Isaiah put in here to denote a passage of time. Rob, do you want to read off what we calculated? after hours of grinding the mathematics. I simply love to read numbers, Justin. Thank you for this incredible honor.

The biggest slice of the title pie as of November 2025, the Oklahoma City Thunder with 38% of the pie. The Denver Nuggets have 20% of the title pie. The Houston Rockets have 14% of the title pie. That's the vast majority of it, as we've discussed on this podcast, not entirely surprising. The Knicks ended up with 6%, the Pistons and the Cats, both 4%, the Lakers 5%, and the Timberwolves, 4%.

And then just, you know, in a show of solidarity, of sharing, of generosity amongst ourselves, we have decided to give 1% each to the Spurs, Raptors, Heat, Magic, and Golden State Warriors. How do you guys feel about the way we divvied this up? I like it. I think one heavy vote probably swayed some people's pie, like the pistons, you had 7% in the pie. Whereas Kyle and I had one in three. Well, one of us had to correct the record, you know. But I, for instance, would view them as is on a different level than some of the East teams. But, you know, overall, I feel like it's pretty fair. Okay. Benevolent pie giving.

Kyle, how do you feel? I'm happy with this. I think it's more of a we, we hit it. The top, uh, sounds so passionate. It's a top three conversation. I mean, I think the bigger question that the teams across the league are going to have to answer is can that top three can that whatever it is that huge percentage of the pie can it be penetrated and at this point I kind of feel like no

but we'll see yeah it ended up being 72% between the three top Western conference teams I just if we get to June and it's anyone but them we'll probably need to eat some crow obviously we'll be celebrating an incredible story but I think I just would be shocked by that result

given everything we've seen so far here's a question which team on the lower end of the pie will make us look stupid or is the most likely to make us look stupid when we get to the playoffs late in June and April. What do we consider to be like is four and five percent lesser? That seems a little too high.

I feel like maybe someone from the below that category. So only the one percenters in the opposite direction. The 99th percentile of teams on the pie chart. Right. Who's the dark horse, I guess, is what I'm ultimately asking? Spurs. I think it's spurs. Not for me.

Look, I am a sucker and I am drawn yet again to the Orlando Magic. A team that is almost top 10 on both sides of the ball has yet to play anything resembling its best version of itself this season. If they find it, if they're able to kind of composite what's been driving them over the last couple weeks with the best version of Palo, that's a team that could be really competitive in the East. So maybe the 1% Orlando Magic could make us look a little foolish. what's funny is when you sort by most recent games and you go by offense the magic are one of the best offense in the league over the past five to ten games now i don't remember a team if we're going by history as president being like oh we're not sure if the best player who ultimately defines our ceiling we're not sure if he totally fits with what's going on here if they ultimately win the title within the same season probably not but um you that's just for hypothetical yeah like it's Look, ultimately we're forecasting, and this is a team that just is not, has not figured itself out yet. And so that gives it some room for upward momentum. It was kind of a 99 Nix thing that could happen, right?

I mean, of course, I mean, that was more of an injury. You just remove somebody and then the other pieces just sort of like come to life. But they're a team, man. I mean, in the East, I could see the magic just straight up beating any of the teams in the East in a series. Like just, I mean, I don't even think that. That's not difficult to imagine. That could easily happen. So, yeah, I think it's very possible that they,

and if we're, if we're rationalizing it right now, I don't think that we can necessarily look too stupid because I do firmly believe it could happen. So, yeah. All right. We'll only wrap it there. We'll be back on Wednesday, as usual. Thank you to Isaiah Blakely on production.

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