The Ringer NBA Show - What Is the Nuggets’ Offensive Solution to the Heat’s Zone Defense? | The Answer

Episode Date: June 6, 2023

Seerat and Michael start the pod by sharing their reactions to and insights from Miami’s victory over Denver in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. They then preview Game 3 by talking about their expectations... of Jimmy Butler going forward, and what the Nuggets can do to combat the Heat’s complex defensive scheme (20:16). Hosts: Seerat Sohi and Michael Pina Associate Producer: Chris Sutton Production Supervision: Benjamin Cruz Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Bill finally gave the ringers Philly crew a podcast. I'm Ben Solac. And I'm Shiel Capadia. That's right, just a couple of Philly guys with a new space to fire off some Eagles takes, get caught up in the Sixers, chaos, and more. We'll be coming to you twice a week on Sundays and Thursdays, plus bonus episodes whenever we get breaking news or Philly drama. Plus when Hardin and Embed somehow convince you suckers that this year's going to be different, our fellow Philly stands at the Ringer will have you covered on the Sixers and all your other favorite teams in town. It's Philly Sports, Shield. What could possibly go wrong? Join the fun and follow the Ringer's Philly special now on Spotify. So, welcome to The Answer. I'm Sir Ritz-Sohi, joined as usual by Michael Pina, who is in a hotel room in Miami, from what I can tell in the background.
Starting point is 00:01:00 We're going to be breaking down game two of the NBA finals and then talking about game three. But you, you Michael, you're actually, you spent a couple days in the belly of the beast. You were in Denver for two days, and you're going to be at game three. So I'm going to open the four to you a little bit here. Any like, what's your, what's your takeaway from the ground? Fun finals so far, competitive. I'm personally, it's weird talking about the Miami Heat because what they do is, it's like this whole run is stunning, right?
Starting point is 00:01:32 Like they're the number eight seed. And for them to go in to Denver and like I was talking on Media Row in the second quarter, I was just saying to people that I thought the game was going to be a blowout once they started to make their run with Yokic on the bench. It just had that vibe. They obviously won game won pretty convincingly, I thought. And it's just like this team in the three point line is a huge factor. This team's poise offensively with their execution. The two-man game with Jimmy and Bam is amazing.
Starting point is 00:02:07 All the different ways that they're able to execute on defense, the way they shape-shift. with the zone really had it going in the second half. And I mean, they cut the lead to six or the deficit to six at the end of the second quarter. And they just keep playing and fighting and churning through possessions. You know, Aaron Gordon today at Media Day said that the Miami Heat make you play all 24 for all 48. And there's like no team in the NBA that does that. And it's just they're so unique. So you expect competitive basketball when they take the floor.
Starting point is 00:02:38 But at the same time, it's just like, it's just amazing. to watch. It's like this huge dichotomy trying to analyze them where I'm surprised but I'm not I guess is the best way to put it. Yeah it's incredible right so like pretty much this reminds me a lot of what we
Starting point is 00:02:56 were talking about before they played Boston going up against a team that is deeper, more talented more versatile, has home court advantage should on paper have pretty much every tactical advantage over my
Starting point is 00:03:12 possible. But then through some measure of, first of all, I think their effort in game two was just so much better than it wasn't game one. Their physicality was better. The zone in the fourth quarter,
Starting point is 00:03:25 which I'm sure we'll talk about at some point. Just flummoxed and confused Denver, really cut them off from their main supply. Over two games now, Jamal Murray has more touches than Nicola Yokich does. So I don't want to say, we'll obviously probably talk about the idea of, hey, can you stop the Joker? Eric Spolstra answering a question by Ramona Shelburne basically said,
Starting point is 00:03:50 like, you know, that's something that people with an untrained I think is possible. I think he was just trying to throw off the scent a little bit because they've done some really smart things against Yokic. So real quick, that was my angle for my column. That's what I wrote about after game two. noticed that he had four assists, which is a playoff low, 28 shots, which was tied for the third most in the postseason. They have some, I don't know what their record is off the time. I think it's 7 and 13 when he has eight or fewer assists during the regular season, something like that.
Starting point is 00:04:27 They're obviously better and borderline unbeatable when he gets everybody else involved and is also able to score. And I am fortunate that I asked my, you know, Yokic trying to make Yokic to score a question. to Malone and Yokic and people in Deadbrown. I'm glad that I was not the person who asked Derek Spolster this question, but it's like when you go back and watch the film, yeah, like a lot of his baskets, Yokic's baskets and their possessions are single coverage. He had one where he started the post up like at 30 feet on Cody Zeller
Starting point is 00:05:03 and backed him down and scored. And it's like no double comes. Okay, so that means you're trying to coax shots. I might have an untrained eye, but I think that when no double team comes and there's no digging or anything, that you are okay with him shooting as opposed to finding a cutter
Starting point is 00:05:20 or someone in the dunker spot or an open corner three shooter. So that's just what I saw and what I thought from all that. And I think that that is, when you talk to people around the league, and I think Mike Brown said this on a podcast recently, but that's your strategy.
Starting point is 00:05:38 Trained eye. Yeah, he has a trained eye. Coach of the year, unanimous decision. The strategy when you're trying to defend this team, and it's so much easier said than done, but it's like, yeah, we would love for Yokic to get his and not get anyone else involved. And so I think that that is a fair,
Starting point is 00:05:57 that was a fair question and a fair read on what transpired in game two. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of exactly what happened. Denver can win games like this. they had 23 assists as a team. That's on the lower end for them. 41% of their field goals were unassisted. Also on the lower end for them, but it's not impossible for them to win games like this.
Starting point is 00:06:22 I think the big factor for them on offense. And I don't think their problems really were on offense, to be honest. Like there were definitely moments. And if they had, you know, if they had one of their more blistering offensive nights, and maybe we don't really focus on their defensive issues and total lack of effort. And the fact that Jeff Green came out at the end of game two
Starting point is 00:06:44 and was like, it's a fucking NBA finals. I don't know why we need to be like, like we need to be hammering the point of effort. Malone was pretty pissed too. And I think that's, you know, I think that that's kind of been like the one thing with Denver is just they have moments like this.
Starting point is 00:06:59 But, you know, I think on, on offense, their half court offense wasn't great, but their transition offense was good. But the thing really is that they not only, made Yokic into a score. It's that no one else really got going.
Starting point is 00:07:14 Murray got it going a little bit in the fourth, but he didn't have one of those like blistering, Jamal Murray is not going to miss a single mid-range jumper games, right? So that happening at the same time, I think, is a big factor into why the heat were able to steal this game. They also made that lineup change, putting Kevin Love back in the starting lineup. Jimmy Butler ends up guarding Jamal Murray instead. And he, through the series, is held, uh, held, uh,
Starting point is 00:07:39 held Murray to 0.6 points per direct, per direct actions per per second spectrum. So, I mean, that's, that's obviously very good. And Spoh didn't call it an adjustment. I think he, he called it basically just readjusting the starting lineup back to, to what it was. So I think that makes a huge difference, too. But yeah, I don't know. It just, it was a flood of things, really. Like, you mentioned the shooting as well, right? Miami shot 50% from the, from the, from the three point line, but you can't even necessarily call that unsustainable. Like you said, like this is a team that now, you know, it's done these things. I was looking at it.
Starting point is 00:08:17 And like throughout the playoffs, they've hit 153s on 40 plus percent shooting five other times since postseason. It's not something to do regularly, but it's not the type of thing that I'm going to look at the rest of this series and be like, oh, that's never going to happen again. It very well could. Yes. The three point shooting is it's come to define them in a lot of ways. they can't, well, I don't want to say they can't win if they don't shoot wild from behind the three point line.
Starting point is 00:08:44 But when they do, their odds to win are just like, I don't even like almost, it's almost like a guarantee. It's very, very, very difficult. You need like a miracle Derek White put back with point at the buzzer or whatever. Like that's how you can beat them when they're shooting the ball like that. So real quick, before, I want to talk about the defense, Denver's defense. but I want to make a point that a lot of people have said that the whole turn Yowcich into a score thing is whatever because they still ended up generating
Starting point is 00:09:19 124.1 points per 100 possessions or whatever it was which is just like great offense. But when Yokic was on the floor in 42 minutes, their offensive rating was 110.7, which is not good. And when he was off for those six minutes, It was 192.3, which is just I'd like literally never seen that number before. Thank you, Christian Braun. Yeah, exactly. So I just want to point that out real quick before we move on,
Starting point is 00:09:52 because I actually was not in my column because they didn't have those on-off numbers as I was writing it. But that's just like incredible. Like even though Yokish was super efficient and kind of got any shot that he wanted, really, their team's offense wasn't great. It just kind of reminds me of the Steph Curry warriors and the sort of philosophical debate that usually happens in the playoffs when a team finds a way to turn
Starting point is 00:10:20 or wants to force Steph into being a scorer and wants him to run a bunch of pick and roll and make it kind of a more traditional offense that doesn't have as much movement, doesn't have as much screening. The thing with the Warriors is that they've always been able to find their way back to their philosophy.
Starting point is 00:10:40 And I think at times Steve Curry has been stubborn about this. I think Curry genuinely believes in it. I think that that team believes in what they do, right? And I think now, like Miami has kind of brought Denver to this point now where I'm going to be really curious what happens in game three. Like, you know, let's maybe get into some of that fourth quarter zone stuff. Like I'm looking back at it now, I think I see a lot of moments where I'm like, oh, like, they could have attacked it this way, they could have attacked it that way.
Starting point is 00:11:08 But I'm just going to be really curious to see, like, if Miami comes out with the same game plan, are the nuggets going to kind of succumb to it and make it into a, like, you can go in both directions, right? Like, I think you can go with, okay, we're just going to try to spam Yokic in the post and try to do a better job of getting the ball to him, even though the heat make it exceptionally difficult to, you know, even just get the ball to especially when Bamatabio was on the floor. Or are we going to find a way to grease the wheels and try to get back to the style that we normally play?
Starting point is 00:11:45 Yeah, I think that the zone, it's really fascinating because coming into this series, everyone who watches NBA basketball thought that the best zone breaker who's ever lived was Nicola Yokic. and that is to a point kind of fair and accurate. You put him at the free throw line. You let him pick apart, fine cutters, find open shooters, et cetera. And I just think that
Starting point is 00:12:15 it's, and Spose says this all the time, like, it's less about the scheme than how you execute it, what you're doing. And their physicality, I thought, was just like on 10, gave Vincent meeting him at the nail and just like driving his knee into Yokic's backside,
Starting point is 00:12:32 never letting him forget that there's someone right there on him. They don't give him space to do anything. He's always being hit. There was one play where Kevin Love, could have been a foul, I don't know, but poke the ball away right at the free throw line with just such aggressive ball pressure and the heat went the other way.
Starting point is 00:12:53 I don't think they got any points out of it, but still, like creating turnovers like that. Yokish finished with five turnovers and four assists in game too. which is like, I don't know when he's had more turnovers than assists in a game when the last time that is, to be honest. I think that the zone is, it's like really fascinating how, like you look at the numbers and some of the numbers aren't even, they don't say that it's had this great success, but when you're just watching it unfold, the timely stops, the awkwardness of how. Denver is operating offensively.
Starting point is 00:13:33 That's really tangible. And even when they score, it's like, oh, they got a little fortunate on that one. It's not like they're solving this defense. So I think that it'll be a huge part of this entire series, to be honest. And that is, that's a stunner. Like, I thought Yokic would be able to obliterate this thing.
Starting point is 00:13:54 And they got some good shots in game one against it that they just didn't knock down. and maybe going forward they will get those shots again and they'll knock them down and everything will be fine and Spoke can't go to the zone as much as he wants to but so far I think that it has served its purpose for sure. Yeah, I thought that love play is a great one to bring up. That was actually, they were playing man still then.
Starting point is 00:14:18 I think that was like that was a play in the third quarter and that's a great example of just how difficult they make the catch for Yokic too. Like ideally love is. there before you can even make the past. But the way that Butler and Adabio have been icing the Jamal Murray Yokic pick and roll, and I'm not sure if that play came from a Jamal Murray action, I don't remember. But there were a couple of plays right after that one where the thing that I noticed most
Starting point is 00:14:49 was just how big of a past deterrent Bam Adabio was. Like there were like, I think it was a five minute mark in the third and then like the play right after as well. They ran a, they ran pick and roll on both sides of the floor and on both possessions. Bam and Jimmy basically forced Jamal into the corner.
Starting point is 00:15:11 He's also like, Jamal Murray is not like a behind the back passer. He's not often going to give you the quick release. He usually needs to like kind of stop and go. Like kind of stop and pass in a way too, right? Like he's not like, he doesn't have like the the Trey Young passing package.
Starting point is 00:15:31 Not to say he's a great playmaker, but that's just like one thing in his game that I think the heat of kind of exploded because they can force him to over dribble just a tad. I'm not saying he's like holding onto it for an egregiously long time, but we have to remember this is one of the fastest rotational defenses in the NBA.
Starting point is 00:15:49 And on the first play, one of the wings came up to help on Yokic on the pop. So you don't have that, pass. And then I think it was Bruce Brown who cut. But Vincent was there and he gets a steal on the first one. And then and then on the other one, it's like, it was like a, he, he drove, Jamal drove baseline. He escaped the, the trap. But he had to jump past it to KCP. And Bruce Brown ends up, ends up getting a three out of it. But you'll kind of live with that in a possession where, and like, honestly, the biggest point in all of this is Nicola Yo, Yokich does not touch the ball. Yeah. Like that, that is the W,
Starting point is 00:16:31 right? And that is like the best way to essentially stop him too. And that is, that's what the zone did a really good job of in the fourth. Like then it, because after, after those string of possessions, Cody Zeller got into the game and Yokic was like,
Starting point is 00:16:44 it's Nicolaiyokic type. And that's when you kind of felt the game really slowed down. That's, it's a beauty of post-ups too, right? Like, when you have a guy that can post up like that, like you can really just,
Starting point is 00:16:56 you know, you can, you can muck the game up a little bit, right? Like, it started to slow down. It starts to feel like Denver was starting to get command of the game again. But then, yeah, I don't know. The zone comes out. And yeah.
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Starting point is 00:20:16 What are you feeling going into game three after what we've seen in the first two games? To me, Jimmy is like, he's like wing Yokic. And what I mean by that is, however the defense is playing it, he'll just read what it is. He'll make the simple pass, find the open man. Yokish had a quote today that was like amazing that I've never heard before. That was the open man wins the game. And I was like, that sentence just sums up your whole basketball philosophy.
Starting point is 00:20:52 and why you're a great player. And I asked Jimmy about today how Denver is defending him versus how he was guarded by Boston and New York and Milwaukee. And he basically, his response
Starting point is 00:21:08 was very similar. It was I can't win alone. I need to, I've tried to win alone in previous stops. I need to involve everyone. I need to make the right pass, the right read. And he does pretty much every possession I would say.
Starting point is 00:21:23 And when his teammates aren't knocking down those threes, their offense looks a little worse. But when they are, as they did in game two, they look unbeatable. And so even his, I know I'm rambling and I apologize, but even his field goal percentage in the series is like, it's terrible.
Starting point is 00:21:40 And it doesn't matter. It just seems like he's still able to control the rhythm of the whole game. And so I just, off of what you've seen from Jimmy, what are you thinking for, Game three going forward. Yeah, I mean, I'm mostly with you.
Starting point is 00:21:55 And I'm glad you asked this. I was actually going to ask you this too. It was like, if you're Miami, are you happy you got a game on Denver without a Jimmy explosion or concerned that the Jimmy explosion hasn't happened yet? But, like, I mean, to answer your question, he's also averaging eight assists in the finals.
Starting point is 00:22:10 So, you know, so I think the only place of contention I have with Jimmy is I don't think that he has attacked the, He hasn't attacked the Okach on the drop with as much aggression as I think he could. I think maybe it's his play style too. He's just like he's kind of been maybe his ankle is bothering him. Maybe his foot's bothering him. He has been playing with a level of hesitation.
Starting point is 00:22:38 He's kind of like been employing a bit of an old man game. He's trying to read the pick and roll a little bit too much. I think you actually wrote about this after game one where he's like, you know, he's coming off these picks and he's looking to see who's behind. him. And I think the best thing that you can do against Joker is just make a quick decision because, I mean, Joker's a, he's a good enough defender and he's smart that if you give him some time, he will get where he needs to go. There was a play in the first quarter where, you know, Jimmy kind of turned a drive into a post-up and then he ended up clanking the layup and it was
Starting point is 00:23:14 contested when I thought if he either just, you know, pop for a middy or just went straight to the rim, he would have had a lot more success. But I think that might also be a personnel thing too, where, like, if that's how Jimmy's got to play, and by the way, so he's generating like 0.7 points per chance against Yokic as a secondary defender in this series. But his teammates, especially in game two, his teammates have absolutely crushed that action. Lowry 1.769 points gave Vincent 1.4.4.
Starting point is 00:23:49 points, Duncan Robinson, 1.25. Robinson on the handoff, Lowry and Vincent on pick and rolls. And I think that kind of speaks to how Miami's guard play is so jumper oriented. And I don't think that they'll make as many mid-range jumpers as they did. This is one thing that's kind of hilarious too. Miami took 11 shots at the rim in game in game two. It's wild. But they shot 40, like, yeah, they shot 44% from mid-
Starting point is 00:24:19 range though. So it's like, it's fine. And they got, you know, they got BAMs. Like they, and they end up scoring fine in the paint. Like, you know, Bam hit like every short mid-range jumper. He's like, that shot abandoned him in the postseason, but it's kind of right back to where it was for him in the regular season. So, I mean, that's, that is well-timed. But yeah, I think him setting up shooters is obviously that, that is Miami's game plan. They want to get a lot of three-point shots up. And I also think the nuggets are kind of, they're overhelping a little bit. They really don't want to give up switches on Butler,
Starting point is 00:24:58 which is understandable. Like he's also like, he's been really efficient post up in isolation in this series. It's just that he hasn't gotten that many attempts. So yeah, on one to one degree, it's like, yes, the nuggets are executing their game plan. On the other hand,
Starting point is 00:25:14 that game plan, when they don't execute it perfectly, or when they kind of have the effort, miscues that they had ends up in Max Struth slipping multiple times and getting wide open corner threes and you don't necessarily want to be doing that either especially to me when I haven't seen Jimmy actually be like himy in a bit right like I kind of want to see what he's going to do if you make him do that I'd be I'd be curious to see how the Nuggets choose to defend him in game three. Yeah, so this is what
Starting point is 00:25:47 I'm writing about for tomorrow. It is, because basically the fascinating contrast to me through the first two games and particularly game two is Miami's defense trying to turn Yokic into a score, right?
Starting point is 00:26:07 But Denver's defense trying to turn Jimmy Butler into a passer and a playmaker. And really packing the paint. And as you said, I couldn't agree more with the overhelping.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Like, there's, either they're screwing up a switch. Max Drew's got like two open threes because of screwed up switches. You add contavius Caldwell Pope on, like towards the strong side of the nail, defending on an isolate, a wing isolation where Jimmy is being defended by Aaron Gordon and what are you so afraid of
Starting point is 00:26:50 that I asked basically everyone I could on the Nuggets if they thought that they were overhelping and some said yes Michael Porter Jr., who has been probably the biggest culprit, I would say honestly, in the overhelping department said that he admitted that they were probably overhelping a little bit in his response to my question.
Starting point is 00:27:11 But I feel like the smart defense there in general is to do exactly tilt yourself a little bit more towards exactly what Miami is doing on defense with Yokic, which is a lot more single coverage. Obviously, you don't want to just let him cook Jamal Murray one on one. But I just feel fundamentally that if you're playing
Starting point is 00:27:38 the percentages, tough contested mid-range shots against a guy who I think you're really smart to bring up the ankle thing. If you look at his numbers since the ankle injury, they're not great. I think you're shooting 41%
Starting point is 00:27:52 from the floor, 31% from behind the three point line. You look at unassisted opportunities. I have a whole bunch of stats because again, like I said, I'm writing about this, but on unassisted opportunities since his ankle injury,
Starting point is 00:28:06 he's 33.7% on jump shots, 45.3% on layups. 26.3% on floaters and 38.4% on shots out of the post. Those are all terrible, terrible numbers. But the other side of the coin is, it's Jimmy Butler, and it's the finals. And we're working with a small sample. So if you were to just really lax your coverage and he goes off one-on-one, you could easily lose the game. Who knows?
Starting point is 00:28:35 So I kind of go back and forth on this mentally with what I feel about it. like three at the end of the day is more than two. So I would be more concerned with letting Duncan Robinson, Max Strews, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, these guys get open threes. I think that if you limit that, you have a better chance of winning than giving up, you know, a 35 ball, a 40 ball to Jimmy Butler personally. Yeah, and you also got, he's just like, I think you got to test it. You got to test it to see if he has that in him right now,
Starting point is 00:29:05 especially like now that you've said those numbers, I feel even more strongly about that. because like right now Denver is letting Miami play I mean these are both teams that move the ball really well they're really unselfish they have great chemistry but Denver is basically letting Miami play like their style of basketball
Starting point is 00:29:21 a lot of that I think is credited to Bamatabio too he's just been he's been he's been hitting all the right notes he's making all the right decisions he's generating a ton of points for them on screen assists like almost Yokish level on screen assist he's actually leading Miami and touches over
Starting point is 00:29:38 two games. Yeah, and like, you know, back-to-back 20-point games. Yeah, he's been, he's been really good. And you never want to compare anybody's decision-making to Yokic, but at the same time, it's like, oh, okay, like, he's kind of doing some of those things that we expect to see from Yokage. And Miami has pretty much successfully taken Denver outside of their style. So, yeah, I mean, I think it only makes sense to muck it up for them, too.
Starting point is 00:30:05 And then just kind of see what happens with, like, is Jimmy going to hit him? hit a bunch of floaters or is he going to get to the rim? I think that would be a big question for me too when you talk about the three is more than two part of it as well. Because if you can cut off Miami's three points apply, then I think they have to deal with a similar math problem to like what the Phoenix Suns were dealing with as well. So yeah, I mean, I'm actually, I'm really excited to read that now. Is that going to be up like before the game tomorrow?
Starting point is 00:30:31 Yes, it will. It will. I'm going to finish it as soon as we finish this conversation. We have the same day. What is your prediction? Do you have a game three prediction? Do you have like a feel for this series at all? I do not have a feel for this series.
Starting point is 00:30:48 I do not have a feel for the series. I picked Denver and Seven originally. I saw that. Can you can you can you? I know you're about to answer the question I'm about to ask, but like I saw that and I was a little surprised, honestly. So I kept going back and forth on the heat and the intangibles and spolstra and BAM's individual defense against Yokic,
Starting point is 00:31:13 which by the way, like, honestly, like, I keep citing second spectrum numbers, but then like when you watch the clips, it's a little, I don't know, it's a little iffy, especially in this series. For some reason, I think probably because of the amount of zone that's being played and just a way that the heater defending pick and roll. But I also think the eye test kind of backs it up.
Starting point is 00:31:34 like, Yokic simultaneously, while getting a lot of what he wants, Bam has made his life very difficult. I think he's tired him out. He's really strong. Yokic can still back him down. He can back anybody down.
Starting point is 00:31:49 But that is also, like, the best strategy for him, too. Like, he's had a lot of success against Bam in the post and not a lot of success against him in pretty much every other area. Like, he's quick enough on the faceups and the drives. The quickness with which Yokic has turned his potential face-up opportunities with BAM into dribble handoffs is a little bit staggering to me.
Starting point is 00:32:15 And I was kind of curious how that would go for an entire seven-game series. I also, a little bit of heat culture, a little bit of Spolstra's zone, a little bit of like, you know, all of the things that at a certain point, you just got to give a team credit for punching above its way. and assuming that some of these things are going to hold. Jimmy, like, just all of these factors, like the fact that for some reason, some role player always comes up clutch for them. Like, Martin was sick, came off the bench, did not play well, and it ends up being like Gabe Vincent that goes off.
Starting point is 00:32:53 And, yeah, I just, I thought that I also, the other thing I thought, too, was just that, like, Miami has a lot of quick guards, and they are, smarter mathematically than a lot of teams. They're going to get like the most they can. And I was also curious. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:33:11 It was just like all of all of the things that we've been talking about with with the heat, I'll stop rambling. But basically just like at a certain point, I decided to believe what I was seeing as opposed to just looking at the matchup on paper. Because like I kept thinking Denver in five or Denver and six. And it's just my gut was like,
Starting point is 00:33:29 this doesn't sit right. This just doesn't sit right. I still think Denver's going to win the series. but it's just like a game like that shows you like Miami is not a team that's just going to go quietly into the night. No, not at all. I think that like everybody has a game plan
Starting point is 00:33:43 until they get punched in the face, right? Like you can't know what it's like to play the heat until you're in a playoff series against them. They are unlike anybody else and just how discipline they are, how locked into the game plan they are. It's just like they're very San Antonio, purrs-esque and that they never beat themselves, it seems,
Starting point is 00:34:07 which a lot of teams that they face do. And I don't know, like, I still think that the Nuggets are going to win this series. I would not be stunned if the Nuggets won three games in a row. But at the same time, the whole, oh, Miami's shooters will suddenly stop making open shots or ridiculous contested shots. I just don't think you can fundamentally think that anymore. Like, this is the fourth round of this. I don't foresee them falling into the same slump that they had against the Knicks from behind the three-point line.
Starting point is 00:34:47 I just feel like these guys are so locked in. I don't really know. That's such a reductive term, I guess. but like when you watch Gabe Vincent or Caleb Martin or Struz or Duncan Robinson like every time they miss a three it just feels like a mistake or a glitch. Like I expect all their shots to go in, frankly. And like even going back to everything you're saying about Bam,
Starting point is 00:35:15 I honestly feel like Bam is still super underrated because he's not a big point score. He's amazing. I think he's been their best player in the series so far. He impacts both sides of the ball at such a high level. He's asked to do so much defending Yokic. He's asked to do so much triggering the DHOs that leverage Yokic's greatest weaknesses in space as a defender. And he's just been on point.
Starting point is 00:35:42 And when he's making those like paint jump shots that nobody else even attempts in the NBA because it's 2023, but he does. when he's making those, like it's just such a bonus. It's such gravy on top of how they want to play. And that said, I'm still sticking with my nuggets and five prediction like an idiot. And we'll see how that turns out. I feel like if the nuggets win two straight games,
Starting point is 00:36:12 which I honestly don't think they will. I think Miami will at least win one home game. But I feel like if they do, I don't see Miami, even though they'll be back in Denver for it. I don't see Miami losing their third game in an elimination game.
Starting point is 00:36:28 I just don't like I they're from everything I've seen from this team so far my brain, my heart like it cannot conceptualize that actually happening.
Starting point is 00:36:42 But I do think this is Denver is serious to lose still and I think a lot of that is because of their total just complete shocking lack of effort on defense in game two. Just horrible execution errors, bad closeouts, really bad help.
Starting point is 00:37:05 Those two KCP fouls on three-point shooters, the MPJ foul on Batman Abio when he was going to get a clear dunk and he's Batman at a bio. And you're so far away. So why do you even bother? And not to single him. out because he's been a lot better on defense and I think a lot of people expected him
Starting point is 00:37:25 to be throughout the course of the playoffs, but just not not a good MPJ look. Honestly, not a good MPJ night. Not a good MPJ series so far actually now that I think about it. But yeah, I just I feel like as much as we've talked about the offense
Starting point is 00:37:40 and the half court offense was, I mean, they held the half court offense to 100 points per play, which is incredible for when you consider like Denver is just a flamethrower. But if they just play a little better defense, they probably win that game.
Starting point is 00:37:58 They don't make like just the type of regular season, how the hell are you even doing this in the NBA finals, execution errors, which I don't think they'll, I could see them doing it again for another game. I'm surprised, honestly, because I thought that,
Starting point is 00:38:13 I thought that this was something that this team had completely grown out of throughout the course of the playoffs. But their margin for error, like we have to remember is very thin on defense, despite how many good parameter defenders that they have, if they are not completely tied in scheme-wise, like they don't have a BAM at a bio, they don't have a guy that you can just have at the rim
Starting point is 00:38:32 to clean everything up. So yeah, they got to pick it up on defense. I feel like they will, honestly. Yeah. So many of their mistakes are, like you said, they're just so elementary, like easy stuff that you screwed up, that the other team really didn't do anything
Starting point is 00:38:50 to make you screw up, just don't do it again. And the concern there is like, okay, well, not only did they make those mistakes in game one, but then the first quarter of game two, when their head coach is probably like drilling the film into them of their mistakes from game one, like the same exact mistakes are made right out the jump. Max Cruz hits three-threes, all-off mistakes. Like, that's just a little worrisome, I'm not going to lie. And then being in their locker room after the game,
Starting point is 00:39:21 I just want to say like the contrast of being in the heat locker room after a loss and the Nuggets locker room after a loss. Heat locker room after a loss. They got cans of Pacifico. Just everyone's drinking beers. Everyone's having a good time. No one looks stressed at all. The exact opposite vibes, I would say, are true for the Denver Nuggets after game
Starting point is 00:39:48 too. They just seemed really down in the dumps. And like, it's the finals. I get it. They probably should feel that way. They were up double digits in the second half. They had a commanding lead. Or, I mean, eight points, whatever. But like, at home, going to the fourth quarter, should have won that game, frankly. Like, there was really no reason why they shouldn't have. And I feel like them feeling like they let one slip away. I don't know if mentally they'll get over it or if they already over it or whatever. We'll see. I think Yokic said at the end of his presser, like,
Starting point is 00:40:24 yeah, we'll see if we have the effort level that we need at the start of game three. It's like, okay, cool. I guess we'll all find out when that game starts. But yeah, it's just a really weird finals. And it's fun. I'm enjoying it. I still think that like betting against Yokic versus whatever is not smart and so I'm going down with Yokic at the end of the day. There is something to having been here
Starting point is 00:40:54 before but also I think I look at Yokic and the way that he is mentally he lives in the moment you know I think that's something that's really helpful to have at this stage like I don't think that he's a player who is going to be like this is a team that made two three one comebacks in the bubble um so i think they know how to simultaneously be down on themselves and disappointed in their effort while also
Starting point is 00:41:28 being able to shake it off so i don't i'm not necessarily too worried about that part of it but it's it also does kind of bring up a strange like a strange dynamic that i think has existed in that locker room pretty much since Michael Malone has been trying to shape them into a contender, which is that like he is oftentimes the loudest voice for accountability in these situations. And I think that's shifted somewhat. I think Yokic has become that guy through the course of this season. But there's a reason they signed so many veterans, right? Like there's a reason that Jeff Green is in that locker room, DeAndre Jordan,
Starting point is 00:42:01 who are like Jeff Green would look really pissed and Michael Malone was really pissed. And none of it really matters. unless that energy transfers to the players who are going to be playing the majority of the minutes in this series. I mean, that's kind of always been the story for them. I think they will figure it out, but it just kind of,
Starting point is 00:42:21 like this is the central tension of their defense and has been for most of their tenure. Like, it's just there are nights when they think that they can just win a game with offense. And they came very close. And they believe a lot in their offense. And, you know, also at the same, time. Like they were a, they were a Jamal Murray step back three over Jimmy Butler. Like,
Starting point is 00:42:43 the same shot that he made like a few minutes earlier away from going to overtime. So there's a reason they do, but like you just can't live and die with that stuff. And yeah, I mean, like this, it's probably a good wake up call, if anything, right? You would hope. You would hope. Aaron Gordon said today, you know, one of the things, if you rewatched the film, like, he let Jimmy Butler reject the screen and go away from the help. multiple times and a few threes were wide open because of that. And that's just like a simple, I don't know if it's simple because I don't play in the NBA, but I feel like letting a guy reject a screen multiple times is not what you want.
Starting point is 00:43:26 Like he should be able, he's big and strong and long enough to direct the ball a little bit better. And that was something that he specifically cited as something that I was not locked into our game plan. I did not execute what we were supposed to be doing. So I just feel like they will correct a lot of that stuff. To your point, their mentality as an organization for a long time has been, okay, the other team scored, whatever. We're going to get two or three points on this possession, so it doesn't matter. And I feel like throughout this playoff run that has not been their mentality at all.
Starting point is 00:44:03 And if they were to drift back into that, that would be very problematic against this Miami Heat team. because they will grind out victory. The pace of these games even is so slow, and Miami does such a good job of limiting transition opportunities and just easy stuff in the open floor, and they don't turn it over, and all that stuff. So I think your offensive execution has to be on point, and you've got to make it hard on defense.
Starting point is 00:44:33 You can't give up backcut layups to Duncan Robinson. You can't give up wide open corner three. to Max Struce or you will lose or you'll put yourself in a position to lose, I should say. I just think the Nuggets are like a lot better and they should be up to O and it's wild that they've played as poorly as they have.
Starting point is 00:44:52 I also don't understand why they weren't just switching that action in the fourth with like it's Vincent and Christian Braun that were the primary defenders on that action. Just switch. It doesn't matter if Duncan Robinson is on whichever of these guys he's on. It was Christian Braun and I can't remember.
Starting point is 00:45:12 It was two, man, it was two perimeter guys that were basically like, who cares which one of these guys is on Duncan Robinson, which one of these guys is on Game Vincent? And you figure out the switch after if you really need to. Especially, that was a moment where Yokic wasn't even on the court. So you don't really have to be that. It seems like maybe their game plan is just to not give up the switch overall. They just don't want Jimmy attacking it. But then I think like when you get deep into a series, like you look at those little intricacies and say,
Starting point is 00:45:37 well, this one will switch and this one we won't, you know. The last thing I want to talk about is some of the ways that I think Denver could approach attacking the zone. First of all, I think, so I think overall we love how fast Yokic plays within just one possession. Like, it's great that he goes from trying to post up to running up to the top of the key and initiating a pick and roll. to like popping and then facing up and whatever. Like that is the beauty of Nuggets basketball. It can be really confusing. I think there were times in that fourth quarter
Starting point is 00:46:20 where I wish that Yokic would have just settled in the post and seen what happened. Like made Miami's defense bend a little bit. And then you can have a playmaker at the top, whether it's Jamal Murray or Bruce Brown or Aaron Gordon who's really improved as a playmaker. Try to make a decision based on if, like, I don't know. I feel like if Yonautch,
Starting point is 00:46:40 just hangs out there for three seconds. Miami's kind of going to be like, oh, what do we do here? Either you're going to find a way to get an entry pass to him, or you're going to find somebody else that's potentially open. Jamal did a good job of attacking the paint down the line too. Again, I think that kind of goes back into that. Like, do you really want this to turn into like the Jamal Murray show and everybody else gets cut off?
Starting point is 00:47:03 But I think that's one thing that they can just do is like leverage Yokic off the ball. and if you can't get the ball into him just see what else you can get. There were a lot of moments that were non-kevin-love minutes. There was one in particular in the fourth where he just had Kyle Lowry at the basket tried to post up for like one second
Starting point is 00:47:21 and then didn't get the ball and then like didn't try. He just like backed up and went to the dunker spot. Like just keep posting up there. Like there are some sore spots for Miami in their zone. I think there are times that they could have spaced out better. Like there was a MPJ, miss three from Yokic that was a contested. Like it was kind of, it was a contested three from Butler just because he was one pass away.
Starting point is 00:47:43 I think there's another one with KCP where if he spaced out to the corner, it's a much easier, much more open shot. So yeah, like there are, there are fixes. I also think like obviously I think Miami will make some adjustments to their zone if they, if they go to it again, which I mean, they will. But yeah, just, yeah, I don't. Did you like, what else? Like, did you notice anything about the zone that could be exploited or do you have any
Starting point is 00:48:06 thoughts on that. What I will say about the zone is like the much lotted Jamal Murray, Nikolio pick and roll. It's a lot harder to run against a zone. And I think that that is a huge benefit for Miami because, I mean, that action is, you know, I'm working on a story about it after a thousand people have already written stories about it. Like their two-man game is amazing. It's seven, eight years in the making. They have great chemistry, all that. Not sure how you guard it. And it's like, I don't think that the zone is a be-all, end-all,
Starting point is 00:48:48 stopper of Jamal, Marie, Nicole Yocch pick and roll. But it just doesn't make sense to run it at a high volume. So, like, what you want to attack a zone in a different way. So I think that that is just like this weird byproduct, positive byproduct, for Miami. And then even when they're been in man in game two, I thought they defended the Murray Yokic pick and roll. They did a really good job against it
Starting point is 00:49:16 in a way that I haven't really seen a defense execute in this entire postseason run. So if that keeps up, that's also something to just keep an eye on because that combination has been just the driving force of Denver's success in a lot of ways. I mean, their offense is mostly random in space, but that pick and roll is, like, it's been unstoppable.
Starting point is 00:49:41 So that's definitely something to just watch and monitor as the series goes on, I think. Yeah, they did a really good job of switching it and switching it with non-BAM guys, keeping BAM at the rim to kind of, I think they were trying to force a two-man game to play in the mid-range. And I think Joker kind of resisted that a little bit
Starting point is 00:50:03 in a way that I kind of I look at it I'm like no just you're a little far out but yeah take the hook shot over Gabe Vincent I think that's fine I'll live with that like nine times out of 10 you know but yeah it'll be really interesting it's a really good point
Starting point is 00:50:17 because they ran that action quite a bit during like when the heat were playing in the zone and it was honestly the action that they probably had the most success out of probably because of Murray just being relentless about going to the rim.
Starting point is 00:50:34 But yeah, it just didn't, it didn't, it wasn't the same. Like, it's, I think it kind of goes back to what we were talking about at the start of the podcast. Like, they just cut those two guys out from the rest of their teammates. And yeah, I'm, I'm very excited for, for game three now. I'm just really curious to see Denver's response and Miami's response to that response. Very well put. this conversation, this tactical conversation that Spoh and Malone seemed to be having.
Starting point is 00:51:10 Cool. Well, what else do you want to talk about? So many of us lay awake at night going through a list of what ifs. What if I get into an accident? What if I need to change my home or auto policy? But State Farm knows you would rather worry about anything else. So they're always available to answer any question person over the phone or on the State Farm mobile app. So now you can spend your time pondering other things.
Starting point is 00:51:32 like what if the playoffs shaped up differently Pina do you have any what if set that you've been ruminating on that you've been losing sleepover lately? You know, I probably will be losing sleep over what I'm about to say for maybe the rest of my life. It's my what if is
Starting point is 00:51:51 what if Jason Tatum never sprained his ankle 26 seconds into game seven of the Eastern Conference finals. I was at that game and I'll say that I've been to a lot of playoff games, a lot of finals games,
Starting point is 00:52:08 a lot of games at TD Garden, big games, and 10 minutes before the game started, the energy in that building was basically as loud as, as vibrant as any event that I've ever experienced. You had, like, Rondo dapping up Isaiah Thomas
Starting point is 00:52:28 on the court just, the crowd going absolutely bananas. Paul Pierce was there, so many former Celtics. They were showing Red Sox highlights from their 4-0 down 03. Come back against the Yankees in 04. It was ear-splitting. And then the game begins and Tatum goes down. And I've also never felt or heard an audience or crowd just
Starting point is 00:53:00 just a total 180 in an instant. Like I've never, it was I still right now, I'm just like speechless and trying to describe it. That is like as I'm complaining about this and wondering and pontificating, like I don't want to take anything away against the Miami Heat who played tremendously in that game. Coming off a what would have been a devastating, it was a devastating game six loss at home. they're mentally strong as hell and Caleb Martin is just he was Steph Curry that night but when you have your best player
Starting point is 00:53:39 who in my opinion is the best player in the series go down like that Tatum finished with 14 points in 42 minutes and he was like hobbling around the entire game couldn't defend anybody couldn't move laterally and you contrast that with his 31 point
Starting point is 00:53:58 performance in game six where he's just dusting Jimmy Butler in isolation, totally unstoppable, getting into the free throw line at will. Yeah, it was a kind of a bummer for Boston, for Celtics fans everywhere. But yeah, so that's my big what-if of these playoffs. Yeah, you got to remember too, Jason Tatum is one of the best elimination game scores in the NBA. I think we're all pretty excited for that one. But you in particular, thank you for sharing.
Starting point is 00:54:34 Yeah, no, I appreciate you bringing that up. Yeah, I know, just to add some context. I don't know if it's, I don't know if it makes you feel better that I complimented Jason Tatum or if it's like just salt on the wound in this particular situation. But we can, we can move on. I don't want to make you dwell on the past too much, except to say that the ripple effects of that are going to be huge. You know, the Celtics have a huge offseason.
Starting point is 00:55:02 Is Jalen Brown going to be a part of the future of this team? Would they have stolen a game in Denver as well? If they were the team that was in the finals, I tend to think no. But I would have been curious what the Robert Williams, Yokic thing looked like. And I can just tell by the pain on your face that I should stop right out. No, you know, it's fine.
Starting point is 00:55:24 We're in the Sam Cassell, big ball era now. We're going to enjoy that. Good times are ahead. We will see what happens with Jalen. I would assume that they will bring him back, but who knows, just from everything, all that Brad Stevens has said since the season ended. But yeah, that one hurts, and that is something that the Celtics are going to regret for a very long time losing that series. and even more so game seven,
Starting point is 00:55:57 just the first two at home, just blowing those two. It's just, yeah, you know, this is really going to dark places for me, and maybe we should wrap this segment up as quickly as possible. How about that? Well, thanks for leaning into the pain. I appreciate it.
Starting point is 00:56:14 You might never stop wondering, what if my team wasn't eliminated from the playoffs, but you can at least find certainty in your insurance policy with State Farm. I hope that makes you feel better. They're always able to answer your what-if questions or anything else about your policy that you want to know. File a claim on the State Farm mobile app
Starting point is 00:56:32 or if you prefer to talk to a real person, including your agent, call anytime. It's what they do. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Call or go to StateFarm.com for a quote today. Well, Michael, this has been a great tactical conversation with you. I look forward to doing it again soon. Thank you for joining.
Starting point is 00:56:49 Thank you, Chris. Sutton for producing. Thank you, Ben Cruz. Thank you all for listening. We'll talk to you guys next week.

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