The Ringer NBA Show - Which Teams Will Overachieve and Underachieve This Season? | Group Chat

Episode Date: September 8, 2021

Bang the doldrums, folks, because we’re in the deepest valley of the offseason. Therefore, we must gamify. Justin, Rob, and Wos each picked the teams they believe will overachieve (6:10) and underachieve (28:25) this season based on expectations and Vegas’s over/under win total.  Hosts: Justin Verrier, Rob Mahoney, and Wosny Lambre Associate Producer: Sasha Ashall Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hi, I'm Missa Ongo. I'm Ian Wright. And I'm Ryan Hunt. And collectively, we are the Stadio podcast. I'm Wrighty's house on the Ringr-FC feed. Yes, we are. We come to you three times a week on the Ringr-FC feed. Bringing love. We're bringing love and football. So if you like zooming out and zooming in on football and all the stuff around it,

make sure you follow Ringrfc on Spotify or wherever we get your podcasts. How's that, Rye? I reckon I'll do. Yeah, man. To group chat, I am Justin Barrier, and welcome to this special Alisee Johnson, free agent signing, of the group chat podcast. Rob, are you excited to talk about this

breaking two-year deal by the Chicago Bulls? Oh, stoked, jacked. Let's get into it. Okay. No, we're going to do something a little bit different because it's still September 8th

and we are waiting for some action for the training camps to start up, for teams to start talking about playing fast, about what good shape that they're in. So we're going to take a big picture look at the league, look at the teams that we're expecting to overachieve, the teams that might underachieve because there's not much going on

except for I guess the Hall of Fame is this week. Wads, are you excited at all to see your guy, Chris Weber, go into the Hall of Fame? Look, I have a policy that if you're ever nice to me and acknowledge my presence in any way, shape, or form, I'm going to ride and die for you for the rest of my life.

And Chris Weber, the two times that I did talk to him, was amazing, fantastic, super candid, super enthusiastic, like just a fun person to talk to at the old job. So, you know, obviously his influences when it comes to the Fab Five and, you know, basketball hipsters. That was like the first basketball hipster team, that's Sacramento squad from the early 2000s. Like, Chris Web is just, you know, he's a legendary guy. I don't think, I think Hall of Fame or not, he would live forever in, you know, the minds of basketball fans. But this is as an official stamp to, like, you know, validate his tremendous career is, you know, incredible. And of course, there's been a bunch of controversies and all kinds of stuff, which we can get into if we want to.

But I'm happy for the guy. Yeah, the Hall of Fame is an interesting one because it seems like it's designed to be like a discussion piece. Like we should be talking about who should get in, who shouldn't. The problem is everyone gets in. And so we're looking at a pretty decent class here. Paul Pierce, right? Chris Bosch, sure file hall famers. Chris Weber probably gets in most of the times,

even if the bar wasn't set very, very low. Who else is in here? Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace probably with a prime example of someone who wouldn't get in if there were a little bit more stringent, criteria for this thing. But I don't know. I don't feel excited about talking

about the Hall of Fame. Rob, as an iconoclast, are you, are you excited at all to watch the ceremony? No. I mean, they don't really make it

very inviting. And just so much of the process in terms of who gets in and why is so cloaked in secrecy that it makes it a little difficult to understand why there are like some random omissions or some random players who have to wait a couple ballots to get.

And it's, it's all a little strange and that's before we even get into the like d list f list contributors to the game who somehow you know sneak in there yeah and you know what i will say to to at least add a positive spin on this thing is specifically with cweb and chris bosh like these two guys are people who redefine their positions straight up like the modern big is based off of a lot of what these two guys introduced to the NBA you know um Chris Bosh turned himself into a stretch five who also protected the basket and was just like, you know, the heat were able to invert him in LeBron's roles where LeBron played on the post and Bosch was basically a perimeter guy. Like some of that shit was revolutionary, right?

And Chris Weber being basically a point forward, handle, shoot it, defend, rebound, the whole thing. Like, these guys defined what that position means these days, right? Them and Kevin Garnett basically to my mind. and even Dirk Novitsky. But like when you watch, you know, even a guy like DeAndre 8 and a lot of what he's doing, man, is very similar to a Chris Bosch or Chris Weber and, you know, all of these modern guys. Like, Carl Anthony Towns, like, this dude basically doesn't even post. You know what I'm saying? Like, this guy is a perimeter dude, right?

Like that form of big man was started by people like Bosch and C Webb and KG and those guys. So, you know, these guys made their contributions to the game. They deserve to be immortalized. And Ben Wallace, you know, the Pistons upset the Lakers that one time. Players like Ben Wallace now make the veterans minimum, I think, is the distinction. That's the distinction. Defensive player of the year, Ben Wallace. Very rude of both of you.

As someone who sits at the intersection of defense matters plus basketball hips, pro-basketball hipster in the early two, thousands plus, please give Chris Bosch's damn due. Today is a good day. It's just, you know, it's a shame the institution is what it is. But good for those guys on their career achievements. Obviously, hugely important and influential players. Right.

Defense matters. Scoring over six points a game also matters. It turns out. Congrats to that. Congrats to Ben. You did it. My guy. All right.

Let's move on to our main event here, the main course. Let's start with the overachieving team. So I pulled up the early over under lines for these teams just as kind of like a benchmark, but we're kind of eyeballing it in terms of just like what we're expecting in a broad sense, what the public, the viewing public is expecting from some of these teams. Rob, do you want to go first with your first overachieving team? Yeah, I think the Denver Nuggets have a chance to overachieve this season. They're marked down at 47 and a half wins for the regular season.

season. And a lot of it for me starts with that. It's all of the questions, the issues we might have with Denver, they're all kind of questions about them as a playoff team. But this is a group that has everything they need for the regular season, starting with the fact that their superstar dominates in a way that's very difficult to adjust to in the middle of a road trip as you're rolling into Denver. You've been playing against all these other teams, all these other styles. And all of a sudden, you have Nicole Yokic to deal with who is going to invert your defense, who's going to pick you apart in ways that other teams don't, who's going to present a really unique challenge

within the context of a regular season. So I have a lot of faith in them to rack up some wins here, maybe get a little closer to 50 than the line would suggest. I just think they're a little bit of a deeper team than they were a year ago, even with Jamal Murray. You know, if we kind of pencil him out for at least most of the season, if not the entire season. I just think they have a little bit of everything.

Man, I 100% agree with you. I don't think that there was that crazy of a regular season drop off when Jamal Murray got hurt, right? Like that thing just kept on rolling. And their offense is just, it's not something you can just wake up out of bed and think you're going to stop on a, you know, on a given day in the NBA. So, Yokic, of course, MVP, he's going to play up to that level again. I expect Michael Porter Jr. to take a step. Look, this is going to sound blasphemous, but I think that Austin Rivers and Monty Morris

do a decent and enough job approximating what Jamal Murray does. Not that they're as good as Jamal Murray. Don't fucking kill me, Denver people, but they do a good job, specifically, as Rob said in the regular season, of, man, getting to a respectable threshold of what can reasonably be expected of Jamar. Murray on the offensive end.

So, man, I think this is a very heady pick by my man, Rob Mahoney. Thank you. So I consider them for the underachieving teams. Wow. Wow. In large part, because I wonder if starting the season without

Murray and going into expecting that he might not show up for a very long time, perhaps even the entire season, I wonder if that starts to weigh on them. Do you have as much like pep in your step going into the season as you did last season

where Yokin shows up in shape and everybody's ready to go knowing that you are diminished? I'm sure Michael Porter Jr. feels very excited for the opportunity. I'm sure what Barton does if he could say on the court. I think a full season of Aaron Gordon definitely works in their favor.

So there are a lot of things that could happen, but I'm a little bit worried about stagnation. It's a tough thing. to really predict, but I think you see it with teams in this kind of zone, in the Portland zone where they've had success, but they keep hitting their head against the wall. And I do wonder if you're saying to yourself,

like, we could be good again, but we can't be great. I don't know. I think there's a possibility that they might fall under as opposed to over, which I should mention, Fandul has him at 47 and a half wins. Yeah, there's always a possibility of that. And it's hard to psychologically profile a team in that way,

just because it's such a different thing, losing a guy in the middle of the season versus, as you said, Justin, rolling into it, knowing he won't be there, knowing that in all odds, by the end of the season, when you want to be at your best, you're not going to have your best composition of players. That's a rough thing to walk into. I just think there's enough players who can help make up for some of that, again, in a regular season context. You mentioned Michael Porter Jr. I think he's probably, if not, kind of the headliner, at least one of the co-headliners as a most improved player possibility this season.

You're also getting in, you know, Will Barton, who you said needs to stay healthy. I consider that an upside. The idea that maybe you do get a fuller, you know, more complete season from Barton, get a little bit more scoring, get a little bit more dynamism from having him in the lineup, hopefully for the whole season. And then you're getting, you know, maybe we get some spice from Bones Highland off the bench, we'll see what he can give him. They bring in Jeff Green, which I think is a nice ad for them.

You know, again, it's just like they're deeper in a couple of little ways. in addition to, again, as we've touched on, just having Aaron Gordon for a full season, going into camp with this weirdo, you know, a swing man forward player and saying, okay, how do we actually use this guy now that we have a training camp to prepare for his presence here?

Yeah, I mean, the other thing is they do find the guys that fill in really well, probably better than most other teams. Bones Highland is the prime example of that. He had a pretty good Summer League, according to people who watched all of Summer League. But, you know, They're just like guys that just step into the void.

I mean, even Jeff Green, Michael Green are just like guys that they could throw in there. Not having Paul Millsap, not having the veteran savvy, maybe pays off, but it seemed like he had kind of gotten to the end of his rope by the end of the playoffs anyway. Yeah,

and to Justin's point, this team, like, it feels like the last three years that started off really sluggish out the gate. Last year, it was like, Yokic was killing people,

but they were like nine and nine in the first 18 games. And it was like, all right, what's going on with this team? And then they eventually got rolling and they showed who they actually are. But yes, it's definitely something to watch. Specifically when your best players, Nicola Yoakich. And he's not like, he's not exactly like Janus with the motor or the intensity all the time.

Right. So definitely something to keep an eye on. Yeah. So last season with Yokic, Porter, and Gordon and No Murray on the floor. So after Murray's injury, 123 offensive rating for the Nuggets last season, which that's a number of it'll get you pretty close to 50 wins. Right. I almost wonder not having Murray now,

like considering what a slow start he in particular had last year, like maybe not having that around gets them off to a faster. It's like Ewing theory with Jamal Murray. I mean, they're probably going to be a good team. I think we might have said going into last season, like we wonder if they might have stagnated, just considering the amount of decent amount of success that they had.

So that could work in their favor too that they've blown past since in the past. But I don't know. I'm just like, I'm not saying they're going to underachieve, but I'm watching them, you know? Wise, you want to go with your team? Yeah, I don't know that they're going to,

can you give me the Vegas odds for the Atlanta Hawks? Not the odds, excuse me, the over, under? Sure, I checked with my sharps, and they said they are 46 and a half. That's ridiculous. This team is going to be incredible this year. Like, they're going to be amazing because they smelled it.

They got to sniff it in the playoffs last year. And there's a certain level of confidence that comes with that. Yes. That's sticky-icky. There's a level of confidence that comes with achieving what they achieved last year, taking the bucks to the freaking brink before Trey Young got hurt. And I think their young guys are going to be better. I think Cam Reddish is going to be better.

DeAndre Haunted is going to be better. Kevin Horton is going to be better. You know, my man John Collins just got his paper. He's going to be better. I just think they're going to be amazing this shit. The idea that this team wouldn't win 53 games just seems absurd to me. They're going to kill people. Would you guys like to guess who the games played leader was for the Atlanta Hawks last season?

Oh. Klingapela? No. No, actually, he missed a bunch of games early on. That's a tough one. Dare I say it's a Justin Vera your favorite. Oh, there are a lot of those.

Solomon Hill. Our old friend, former New Orleans Pelican, Solomon Hill. That's crazy. Which, I mean, really illuminates so Hunter, Bogdanovich and Reddish

combined missed 123 games last season. Wild. Wild that if you can get all those guys back, and especially the defense with Hunter and Capella on the floor was so good for them.

This is a team that could be really, good. I mean, I think at minimum, I think they're going to be in the running for one of those home quarter advantage spots in the east. The question is, are there enough wins to go around between Brooklyn and Milwaukee? And if Miami's going to be, you know, a step or two above where they were last year, Philadelphia, are there, is there enough to get Atlanta to 50? I don't know. I think they can, I think they can shoot over 46 and a half like, well, as is saying. Dude, and they have so many guys. That's the other thing. I know, like, it's about your high-end talent

and what your superstars can do to, you know, sort of win the day. But, like, there's no, like, they're going to put out competent lineups no matter what, all game, every single game, right? Like, hopefully in a just world, Solomon Hill won't sniff the court. But it's like, you go up and down this thing, Bogdanovich, Capella, John Collins, even Dang, Golanari, like, quarter, hunter. Like, this is insane the amount of. depth they have. And then of course

Akangwu is a guy that I think pretty highly of, especially what his potential is on the defensive end of things. I just think they're stacked and are going to sail over 46 and a half wins. This seems like a lock. Lock it in.

Here's my counter to that. Were they deep at the right time? Were they the right team at the right time in the playoffs when every team was losing every all-star in the entire league, they had enough bodies and they faced the right teams in order to go farther than they should have raising expectations for what we think of this team. Because the Knicks,

I think we would all agree, a little bit of soft and a little bit exposed by the playoff atmosphere. And then they go against a Sixers team that immediately went on tilt to the point where one of their players is now just like in therapy, this entire offseason, like, trying to get back to the player we once thought he would be. And then, of course, Janus goes out in the Eastern Conference finals. I think they obviously were great. Try Young Rose to the moment. But I do wonder if they had like the right team for a context that might not exist this season.

For clarity, this is a pro therapy podcast. Take care of yourselves out there, people. Right. Totally. Including one Ben Simmons. But I think that's a concern. And my other concern is with Trey Young. now that he might not be able to twerk his way into a foul call at will, I do wonder how that affects his game and as a result, the spacing on the court.

I don't think we have specific rule tweaks to what they're going to do to those foul rules that they've been kind of forecasting for a couple months now. But if they are more stringent and it is tougher to draw fouls, like that was a huge part of his game and a huge part of their offense. Sure, but I think that was a huge part of their offense back when they were a much less talented team, man. They don't have to be as reliant on that type of stuff with the level of talent that's around Tray Young now. Like, you got to think about it. Like, Lou Will is an afterthought on this team. And that's a guy who, of course, regular season, caveats and all of that, who generates offense. Like, they have so many weapons offensively.

I just don't think that, you know, those extra. four free throws a game that Trey Young's not going to be able to draw is going to matter much. And also, you know, part of what we talk about when people go through the crucible of the playoffs, it's like learning how teams are treating you

in the most high leverage of situations and then going to apply that knowledge to the work that you do in the offseason. And I have the confidence, unlike some other people on the team that they dismissed in the second round in the playoffs, I have confidence that Trey,

Young is going to build upon everything that he saw from defenses in the playoffs last year. And he's just going to be better for it. Like, this guy is bona fide the real deal. He's a star. He's proven it. Basically, every year getting better and better. I just, man, I can't speak highly enough for this team. Yeah, I think I would be swayed more by the idea that the rule changes are really going to

throw a wrench into Tray Young's game. If we hadn't seen him problem solved so well. If we hadn't seen him adapt to defenses and figure things out on the fly and adjust his game already in the playoffs in different ways, that kind of gives me, that gives me a lot of confidence that he'll be able to take whatever steps are necessary to remain really highly effective. He's just such a next level passer in terms of the way he reads the floor. Between that and one thing we haven't talked about, a full season of Nate McMillan, if we're talking about putting the best combinations of players on the floor and putting all these guys in positions to succeed, knowing when you have this many guys who to play when.

All that stuff's going to be really important. Atlanta has a lot of promise, at least as a regular season team. Playoffs, I mean, they're going to have some tough competition, though. I think that is the distinction I would draw. I think regular season, they have enough bodies, and they've shown enough that 46 and a half actually seems pretty low. I would bang me over on this one pretty readily. I don't know.

I just like, I do wonder if last postseason was a flash in the pan. And to your point about Trey's like adaptability, I think like his passing, oddly enough, doesn't get talked about enough. It's probably his best skill. His shooting is kind of like the numbers aren't great there. And maybe this is like an off season opinion where it's like I've stared too deeply at his basketball reference page and didn't realize that he was taking half of them from the halfway court mark.

But like if he's not sucking the, if the defense doesn't have to worry about fouls, are they approaching him differently? Are they giving him more space out there to miss those shots? does that change everything else for everyone else? Does Quincopella not have as much room to do the vertical spacing that he had? I don't know. I'm just, I'm a little concerned,

maybe overly concerned at this point, but I'm not like in love with the Hawks. I think they're a fine team, but I don't think they're going to like be gangbusters this season. Sorry, Wals. Would not recommend for the record the let Trey Young shoot strategy. Would not recommend it. Right.

Okay. I'll go with mine. Here's the correct pick, and I'm surprised no one. offered it up yet. I went with the Toronto Raptors who are criminally underrated according to these odds. 36 and a half. I get it. They have messaged for the most part with some of their moves this off season that they're going to probably look to take a step back. Lowry is no longer there. They brought in presses to Chua. They drafted Scotty Barnes who I don't know much about

these prospects yet, but it seems like is more of a project rather than someone like Jalen Suggs who had the success in the tournament last year. I don't buy it, though. There's just so much stability and institutional knowledge, one, and really the guts of what made them successful in the past is still here. If Oji and Inobie is healthy, he is still a very good player who's ready to take a next step. Pascal Seacum will see he's in kind of a... Looked like a pumpkin at times last year.

It was suspended for misbehavior, has had his... his name all over, trade rumors all off season. But yeah, he's going to win the day. But here's the thing. The whole playing in Tampa last year coming right off of the bubble, I imagine makes up for five wins. And I do think Siakum is in a pretty big,

prove it year. Maybe he ends up being the player he was three years ago where he's just like a hustle big, ready to guard LeBron James and get torched by him. Or maybe the past few years just dealing with all the different elements that they had to face is it was just like throwing him off and he reestablishes his value. I don't know.

I look at this roster and I see a very good team who could make the playoffs, if not just like, flirt with the five seed in the east. Am I wrong? Well, let me clarify. So last season, the Raptors were pretty uneven, pretty, I would say, mediocre on balance. That team flips Kyle Lowry for Goran Dragich and Precious Ochoa. Goran Dragage might be gone. maybe he gets bought out at some point or traded.

We don't really know what's going to happen with him. They had a few young guys, and they're supposed to be a markedly better team. Because last season, they basically won at a 31-win equivalent level. If we have the line at almost 37, I'm just not seeing how they're making up that kind of gap. Well, I would say last year was probably the outlier for a variety of reasons,

in large part because of all, I would assume, just the lack of stability. they had in terms of where they were playing and whatnot. I also think they shored up a couple of sore spots. Like the center rotation was a complete disaster. And like just getting a Chua and Ken Birch in there to soak up the minutes that previously they were just hoping for a Pogo stick.

We're hoping like in order to, in Chris Bouchet was going to man. Like that to me is a complete upgrade. I don't, they paid Fred Van Ville a ton of money in order to be the guy. nice if he stepped forward. And like for the meantime, they have Goren Jogic. Like, wouldn't it make sense to like for both sides for him and the Raptors for him to just make good, play nice and like try to try to make this work in order to force a trade at the trade. And at the very least, that seems like just a quality point guard that they could throw in there to soak up some of the Lowry minutes. I don't know. It just seems like they have too many good players and too good of a franchise and a coach

in order for this to be a complete failure again. You know, I think that what that number reflects is this ever since Kawhi Lender decided to go to the Clippers that the Raptors and Masay Ujiri were always a threat to sort of bottom out, right? Like they ended up not moving Kyle Lowry in either of those two seasons. They ended up, you know, not moving Seacom. They ended up not doing all of these things. Resigning Fred Van Vlead at a big number, like you mentioned. It just felt like they've been a threat to sort of sell off the pieces. for to the highest bidder and sort of get something different going but maybe you know maybe

massage just like look our fan base loves a winner that not one of these fan bases process sixers who cry when it doesn't seem like the team is on some championship track and the people around them from ownership to again the fans that that support the team seem to enjoy just good basketball right It doesn't have to be at the level of what they had in 2019. But shit, man, the team that they brought to the bubble overachieved to a ridiculous extent, right? And, you know, last year was a bit uneven. But like you said, they were in Tampa Bay. And it was, you know, some funky setup that they had.

So I think that number is just a recognition that, man, they're never that far from being like, you know what? This isn't worth going through it with. And we can get some great assets for some legitimate. pieces that we have on the team. So they're always threatening to do that. We're kind of in a place where we have to reconcile this organizational stability we're talking about, which, I mean, the Raptors are just an incredibly well-run organization and team. One of the better coaches in the NBA, one of the better front offices in the NBA.

But at this point, I mean, I think there are three guys who really played a part in their 2019 title who are still on this team. It's just been a complete turnover in terms of what the roster looks like and with the way things have settled, I just don't know that I trust them to score. You know, there are two primary scores in Van Vleet and Siakum are two guys who historically will bump up against a ceiling when they see certain kinds of coverages. That doesn't give me a lot of optimism in them as a regular season night-to-night kind of performance. You know, they're going to do what they can. They're going to compete. They're going to play hard. I like some of these pieces long-term. I mean, OG and Scotty

Barnes, like all these pieces, they could be a really good team in a couple of years. I just think this this feels a lot like a 35 win team to me. Yeah, I mean, Barnes is an interesting one because they pretty much message with that pick that he's a project and we're going to take the longer road, right? Everything about him that people are saying

is that he's closer to like a high upside Siakum, a good Siakum. But 36 just seems particularly low for me. Just for context, the last time we had a full 82 game season, so we're going all the way back to 2018-19. A 36-win team was, the Minnesota Timberwolves the year they traded for DeAngelo Russell.

I just think there's like way more on this team than that team. I think that team had to deal with Kat being in and out of the lineup too of memory serves. Russell, I believe also got injured a bunch after that. Like the Wizards, the year John Wall went out were a 32 win team. Like that is the type of competition we're talking about. And I don't think the Raptors fall into that category. I think they're more likely a team that's pretty good, not going to do much beyond just make the playoffs,

but I would put them squarely in the playoff race if they were up to me. Well, it's not. That's why they play the games. All right. Why don't we take a break and when we come back? We'll talk about some of the underachievers. We went through the positive teams,

except for when I commented on them in which I brought up all the negatives. Was, do you want to take someone down a peg to start here with our underachievers? I don't even think there's expectations for this team, but I think whatever they are, they should be lowered. It's the New Orleans Pelicans. I just don't really like the juju around the team. Obviously, they, you know, theoretically, right, they've upgraded at point guard and center by bringing in Devante Graham and Yonis Valanchunis, respectively.

there are people who like Thomas Tomas, is that how you say it, Tomas Satteransky. Thomas, yeah. But I just, you know, just a level of panic and desperation that permeated their offseason and the talks about them needing to prove it to a third-year dude who hasn't even sniffed the 10th seed yet is, you know, I just don't like what that portends for the overall just atmosphere. of this team going into the season. You know, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Zion turns into, you know, 30 and LeBron.

And he's the type of guy that could beat the Detroit Pistons, right? In the playoffs, right? But, like, I don't think so. I just don't see it. The Brandon Ingram and Zion fit has always been a sort of clumsy one. I still remain a pretty big Brandon Ingram fan. I just don't like the setup for him or Zion, quite frankly, in New Orleans, right? Like, we made jokes during the offseason when in the Wode tweet that announced the

Valanchunas deal, it said that he provided more spacing than Stephen Adams, which is like, I don't know. That's an odd way to sort of frame that signing when the guys wind up. takes about 20 years to get a three off, right? Like this guy is in some three-point threat or shooter. I just don't like what they've done, right? They cleared up all this cap space because allegedly they were going to be in the Kyle Lowry sweepstakes and all these other guys. And it just never happened.

And they ended up settling on Devante Graham. I just, I don't know, man. I don't like what this team did in the offseason. I don't like all the stuff that you hear coming out of there about the disgruntled. sort of position of one Zion Williamson who's supposed to be the franchise. I just don't think it's going to be a good year for them. I think it's telling that, as you mentioned, was so much of it depends on what Zion turns into,

on if he can be the LeBron, if he can be a superstar of that level. And if Zion feels less than bullish about this whole situation in New Orleans, I think it's probably because the Pelicans, whether they're good or not, it falls on his shoulders. Because the rest of the team is kind of a wash. You know, they've gotten better in terms of shooting. I don't really know that this team is in a position to be any better defensively than they were last season when they were really suspect, really disappointing. You add it all up.

I'm just not sure there's a lot to a lot to recommend here other than Zion taking a leap. My only counter here is that this team can't underachieve because I think the expectations are just set so low at this point. That like you can only overachieve because I think the consensus around the, this team is that they will probably finish outside of the playoffs or best case scenario in the play in it's just like i don't know like it seems like the pretty similar team to last year swapping in devante graham for lanzo ball which seems like a downgrade although like maybe he provides different things from lonso that they might need but like the defense could lord and like you said valchunis a similar type to stephen adams might be a small upgrade but not enough they they

They improved probably on the fringes, but they're counting on a lot of internal development, which they would have anyway, right? Like, just saying like, oh, we have Ingram and Zion, and that's enough. Like, you were going to have that regardless. You really needed to do stuff the bolster around them because you had so much to work with and around to do so. And if you're relying on internal improvement, why did you get all these bigs around Jackson Hayes? You know, like, isn't he ostensibly one of the guys who's going to internally improve?

and like you got all of this insurance around him. That doesn't project any confidence to wait from where I said that this guy is going to be a starting level quality NBA center. I just, man, I I'm interested to see it because

you know, look, as negative as I've been on them, I still think Zion when he's right is so electric, so special, so singular in what he brings to the game offensively. Like, you can't deny that. There were times last season where he basically was shack level dominant against teams, right? So you can't

understate how special the guy is when he gets rolling, but so much has to go right around him, man, and make this thing competent. I just don't have the confidence that it will. Yeah, I think the best case scenario for them is, you know, these guys like Kyra Lewis and Nikol Alexander Walker and Jackson Hayes. Like if some of those guys start to hit and Zion looks great and they get into that play-in bracket and win a game or two to make the playoffs. Like Justin says, that's where the line is. So if you can do that, then maybe there is room for you to overachieve. But as it stands, I think there are just too many teams between them and making the postseason.

Yeah. I mean, Hayes is also a question mark after his run in Los Angeles. So we don't know what his status is going to be for the season. Rob, are you excited or are you like high on any of their younger guys outside of Ingram and Zion? Like, are you a believer in NAA? Are you a believer in Carol Lewis? I don't know about believer. I mean, I have professional curiosity about some of these guys, I would say.

Nagy Marshall is probably in that group, too. There's just a lot of, like, I'm still waiting to see what they can be as an NBA player. We're waiting for some of these guys to arrive. I would say in terms of skill set and just the progression they made over the course of last season, I was, I mean, I was pretty bullish on what Jackson Hayes was becoming and the idea of the player he could be. but I mean for that player to be a dependable night-to-night guy again, as you said, accepting the situation in terms of his availability and what we don't know there, I'm just, I'm not ready to commit to that.

And I guess that's where to your point was the insurance makes sense to me, why you would want to kind of hedge against that bet. But you are writing with these young guys one way or another. You're going to have to depend on them if you're going to make it to the playoffs or kind of level up as an organization or as a team. I'm not really seeing a reason to believe in that. just yet. Right.

All right. Rob, do you want to do your team? Yeah. I don't mean to be a warrior's truth around this podcast. I feel like I keep

coming back to them, but I see some of these projections, oh, the Warriors could be the number two seat in the West. Oh, here, they're projected

for 47 and a half wins. I just, I'm not sure what I'm missing. I'm not sure what I'm missing here because this is a team that's absolutely more competent

than it was a season ago in terms of the roster construction. but they're also still so stretched between these seasoned veterans and these young guys who may or may not really be ready for this. I don't know that I'm really ready to bet

on that kind of roster construction right now. Some of it, you know, we just don't know when Clay Thompson's going to be back. We don't know what he's going to look like. We don't know how helpful he's going to be. And some of the guys that they brought in, and again, this is on the seasoned veteran side of the equation. You know, Otto Porter was not very good last season.

Namanya B. Elitza was on a playoff team and couldn't crack the rotation. These are your guys, though. These are my guys. They are my guys in the sense that, yeah, like, absolutely. Get them for the veteran minimum, take a flyer on these guys, see what they can give you, but are these the guys that are going to get you to 48 wins? I'm hard pressed to see the vision of that team other than, again, like, Steph is obviously

great. Steph and Draymond together are obviously great. I just, you know, maybe some of these young guys are just much, much better than I'm expecting them to be, but I kind of think Moses Moody is. is going to slot in and give them some decent kind of reliable minutes, but other than that,

it's going to be wild card stuff from Jonathan Cuminga and James Wiseman. Maybe there's more there that I'm not counting for. But why didn't know to catch in the off season

for sure. No, but what you look, what I will say about the warriors and why people are bullish on them is that, you know, the last time we watched Steph and Clay

and Draymond play together, they were embarrassing the Portland Trailblazers. Like, random fools off the court without KD. It was ridiculous what they did to them. And they gave the Raptors everything they could handle in that finals. Again, without KD, just these three guys and a bunch of dudes, okay?

Like, it's not like the people surrounding those three were like ultra-competent. It was just dudes out there. And those three just making it happen. And it looked damn good while they were doing it. That being said, you know, we're too. years removed from that and clay thompson is a torn achilles and acl away from that like these are two major injuries you know to the lower extremities and so i understand rob's skepticism specifically when like this is going to be very relying on clay Thompson like you know um much as people

we joke about Andrew wiggins and he's not suited to be a second option he's He's a decent third option for a guy who can attack closeouts and every now and again hit a wide open jump shot. But it's going to be on Clay Thompson to carry the load when people are loading up on Steph Curry this season. And we'll see if he's up to the task. I just look at the roster and there's just too much talent on this team for this team to fail.

I just don't see them bottoming out at any point because you're pretty much importing last season's team, which despite all of its fall. has still made it to the playing game and just adding on top of that just capable hands and young guys with upside if Wiseman is just playable, they are already just like

a couple wins better as a team. I just, I don't know if I necessarily see them as contending with the Lakers in the West or a team like the Jazz who has so much institutional knowledge and just like the guts of an already successful team, but I don't see how this team falls

outside of a first round playoff by, not by a first round playoff home series. Oh no, I think they're going to make the playoffs. But I just see them more in the thick of things with the Denver's and the Dallases and the clippers. I think they're in that tier of team. Which, you know, to me,

this category, if we're talking about 48 plus wins, I think that suggests something a little more than that. I mean, my concern is how much are the young guys going to contribute? Like, how much are they going to rely on those guys because if you're playing through mistakes, that's when things get a little dicey, or are they going to work some sort of time share out with the G League and use that more as like a developmental system, more of like a baseball style where you're bringing guys up and down

because there just might not be minutes for them. And I do wonder if Dremont and those guys were already bristling, if of having to take a step back last year and play through that, how they're going to receive a guy like Jonathan Kaminga, who by all accounts is a project, right? Like Moses Moody has a skill. Maybe he could step in and just be a special. for this season. But Kaminga's a guy who seems like he wants the ball and he wants to grow into something a little bit more than just a reserve guy. And I don't know if I see the minutes for him there. But like, I don't know, Jordan Poole was a guy that they couldn't count on last year. They had to wait for him to kind of show himself last season. And they're already rolling into the season with

him pretty solidified as a six man. Juan Descano Anderson, whatever you could say about him. Like, there are times where he's like a guy on the floor. Exactly. Like they have those guys. Damien is there for moral support at the very least during this tough time for the Curry family. You know, like, there's just a lot there to go off of. I think they're going to beat this projection because I think they are highly motivated to prove something, right? I remember back in the heady days of 2015 and 16 where the Warriors would sleepwalk through games because they knew how freaking good they were and would just turn it on.

I think they're going to be on from the word go because they think that they have something to prove and they think they're every bit as good as any other team in the Western Conference because of their pedigree, because of what they've accomplished as a group, you know, when it comes to those three guys at the highest levels. And, you know, it's one thing to, like, play on championship teams and achieve stuff. But, like, Clay Thompson had game six against the thunder, right? Like Steph Curry has won, you know, multiple championships being an incredible player. Draymond Green has been huge in moments.

Like, these guys have delivered in ways that not many people can claim. And I think when they're motivated, they're those type of players. And they seem to be, from what they've been saying all offseason, they seem to be highly motivated guys. So I think, you know, I'm in disagreement with Robbie. I think they're going to be pretty damn good this year. Yeah, I mean, Draymond could be a catalyst in that particular way. I think, you know, last season, he was pretty good. You know, still in all defense level season, still a really important player for them.

But if he's, I would say he was operating at like play in intensity for a lot of that season. If he's at, you know, playoff full speed Draymond going for a lot of the regular season, that could be, you know, pretty huge for them. But barring that, I'm in wait and C mode. Yeah. I also wonder, like, do they really need All-Star Clay Tom's? for this team to excel? Or do they just need like, like, I think so.

Average Clay Thompson. Well, because the one thing that really dogged them at times was they just didn't have enough spacing in order to provide Steph Curry with like some modicum of like a reprieve out there. I do wonder if they have like league average shooters and like Andrew Wiggins, another success story for them last year of them like kind of searching through the wilderness and coming out with a couple of guys that they can count on shot 38% from three last year. Maybe that is the outlier.

but I wonder if they just have Wiggins and Clay spacing the floor, just allowing Steph to be Steph while he's still clearly in the prime of his career is enough to take a level up. I think the issue isn't that it's not the spacing specifically, it's creation. Right, right. It was if we double Steph at half court, what are the warriors going to do? Like, they just didn't have enough answers for that problem. So it wasn't like Steph's driving and needs someone to kick out.

It's if you trap him, someone has to be able to do something with the ball. And Clay with a repaired ACL linked to a repaired Achilles coming out of the corner may not be ready to do that. Yeah. And for me, with Clay and Steph specifically, it's like, you can't ask this guy to play at this ridiculous level for 82 games. There has to be games where Steph's not being asked to drop 45 for them to win by three. right like the accumulative sort of toll that that takes on step's body it's important i think that's why steve is so strict about the minutes and you know all of this stuff because it's like bro like we're not trying to wear this dude down right and so it's going to be incumbent upon clay to

shoulder the burden offensively um at at you know a bunch of points this season because look man steph is no spring chicken anymore you know uh if this thing is going to work for the long-haul into the postseason, it's going to be because his body had some level of preservation in the regular season via other guys picking up the slack offensively. Well, and to Rob's earlier point about just like the spacing and the lack of ball handlers, I do wonder if having more guys out there provides guys like Draymond more opportunities to be playmakers in smaller roles, right? Like they have a couple of guys now who could do something, an approximation of what they

wanted to be last year and what they were in their heyday where you have. had a bunch of guys handling and a bunch of playmakers. I don't know if Andre Aguadal is going to get on the court much at all. If he could hold his own on the defensive end, though, that's another guy who could do a little bit. I mean, this is the problem with their infrastructure and just being beholden to this strategy in general, which I never really understood,

is like you're really counting on like five guys to be able to playmake and pass and be smart and know each other. But I think they've gotten some of that back. And I wonder if it's enough in order to take enough of a step forward for their entire team. Just a smart guy. There are a lot of smart guys on this team. That is an important part of like getting Porter, Bielitsa, and everyone else. All right.

Let's go to mine. Another one from the Hidders ball. So it's tough because like finding a team you expect to underachieve. Rarely do teams just like completely bottom out based on where you are expectation wise. So I pick the Mavericks. If only because it seems like everyone has convinced themselves that This is the year that Luca takes the leap and brings them single-handedly into the top tier in the West, along with the Lakers and the Jazz and those type of teams.

I think it's possible. I think it might even be probable. I just, it counts on a couple things that I'm not sure of. One, Christopps-Prasing is being available and also being the player they thought they traded for, not only on the offensive end, but on the defensive end. and two, relying on Jason Kidd to not only replicate what Rick Carlisle did, but to shore up the defense in general. And I'm just not sure that, I mean, I can't speak to what he did as an assistant,

but based on what he did in Milwaukee, where he had like, I believe one really good year on the defensive end, but then like really ramped up the pressure and the aggressiveness and then just had a pretty mediocre defense. And I think it's a bad sign that Bud comes in there. They sign Brooke Lopez. and all of a sudden they're just like a historically good defense. Like it's probably not a good thing on your resume when defense is probably their biggest need at this point. So I guess like I think the Mavericks are going to be good.

But if I were to pick a team who could potentially underachieve, I think they'd be on that list. Yeah. At a certain point, we got to stop waiting on Chris Stap's, Porzingis to become the man that we've always wanted him to be. You know, at a certain point, he just is who he is, right? who is a very useful player, like a dude that spaces out that far at the five-man position and every now and again provide some level or some modicum of rim protection. Like, that's a valuable dude. However, he's not the number two of a team that's going to reel off 55, 56 wins, right?

Like, he just hasn't shown himself to be that guy. And, you know, they got better. I think they made some improvements on the fringes by bringing in a guy like Bullock. Right. Like, I'm a fan of what he does, but I just don't think it's going to be enough to propel this team, you know, way further than what they did last season. I feel like they kind of are what they are until they can figure out how to improve upon their number two option, their second banana. Like, until they can figure out how to make something better out of whatever Chris Stapp's Porzinger is or does, I think they're in neutral, man. Because, like, look, how much better is Luca going to play?

The guy was insane last year, right? Not to say he's not going to improve much to his game, but, like, what more can this guy do on a basketball court? Well, he could be in shape for the start of the season. Yeah, that's fair. Also, if we could rewind for a second, Sasha, if you could cut just starting with Was saying, you know, we need to stop waiting for Chris Depps-Sorzingis

to become the man we want him to be. I feel like we have a good dating advice pod pilot already in that segment ready to fire. Well, what's interesting with Chris Dobbs is like he's kind of been billed as this rim protector on defense and this dead eye shooter

on the other end. And I don't know if he's either of them like for like as good as he was in the bubble for that, what was it? Seven games, six games he was available. I forgot how many actually ended up playing. But like he's like a 36% shooter career wise. Like he's a good shooter

who teams definitely respect and like you've got to drag your big out there for most of the time but like not as good as you think and like on the defensive end, certainly not the rim protector that I think he needs to be. And to was his point about getting Bullock in there, I thought that they're playing Bs that they got were shrewd. Like they got a bunch of interesting three and D type of guys,

Bullock, Sterling Brown. They have Josh Green hanging around here. If they do want to go that route, I wonder if it forces them to play small. So you're putting Doris Finney, Smith at the four and not as much Dwight Powell or some of the other other bigger guys. And you're counting on Chris Stops. I get to be more of a factor on the defense event.

And maybe that's like all you can hope for. You have this giant man. And like if he can't be a rim protector, then you have much bigger concerns. So why not just like keep trying it? But on the other hand, like, I don't know. Like if they want more stretch,

you're going to have to go smaller and expose yourself on the defense. And then I don't know. You're kind of caught in between these two types of teams. and I wonder if there really is a surefire solution there. I mean, I think the case for the Mavs is that that you just laid out just in simplifying. Go smaller, put as much spacing around Luke as you possibly can. It's the easiest way to make a good team around Luca Donchish. And I think they're better equipped to do that, you know, just personnel-wise than they were last season.

And the one thing we haven't talked about, too, is their season kind of went off the rails in the middle when five of their rotation players were in the COVID protocols. And so last season, they won at a 48 win equivalent rate. Even with all those caveats, even with all the roster issues, if they're just even a little bit better, if they're even a little bit healthier, if they're even a little bit to have a kind of cleaner execution, I think they could be in a position to jump up. The one variable, as we've been dancing around a little bit,

is just we don't know who Jason Kidd is going to be as a coach. And especially in contrast to Rick Carlisle, who is a guy who I think is one of these few coaches who can turn a handful of games for you just with the way he prepares and manages a game. And so you have to make up for that somewhere, potentially if you want to kind of maintain and build on last season's win rate, I think they could do it.

But it's also no coincidence that we've all zeroed in, whether we're talking about under or overachieving, on these West teams that are caught in the middle, with the nuggets, with the warriors, with the maps. I think you could throw the clippers into this group too, potentially. There's just a lot of variability there, and it's going to come down to which of those four teams is healthiest over the course of 82.

And what I will say for Jake Hidd, I think oftentimes we don't think of coaches in terms of people who can improve at what they do. And, you know, he spent time as an assistant on the Lakers, on a championship team. He's there every day watching them build those kind of habits in that kind of culture to the ultimate success. Like the idea that he couldn't have learned something from having that experience, I think he's going to be better than what he showed in Milwaukee. That being said, he was a dumpster fire in Milwaukee. right like he was god awful in milwaukee and just like culturally both in brooklyn and milwaukee he was this kind of like little finger toxic figure um culturally right like with the backstabbing and the backbiting that was going on over there so i would hope that he's improved upon not just his exes and

o's and execution and game plan implementation sort of side of things but also just cultural fostering an environment that's a little less poisonous, man. I would hope that he's gotten better at that. I will say that, like, I think the one thing that gets forgotten about Kid is that he was progressive, at least in the start of his Nets campaign, where he was playing Paul Pierce on an injury riddle team at the four at a time where that was still pretty unique and pretty groundbreaking. Like, he does try stuff.

And while I probably worked against him to pretty extreme effects in Milwaukee, like with what he was, I mean, he did kind of expose Janus to being something that he wasn't before. So maybe there's like something with this team that he can see that someone else couldn't before. Like this is a fresh pair of eyes and someone who's willing to do things a little outside the box, which could, you know, which is probably what this team needs because if they are going to long term take a step forward, it's going to be internal development at this point because as we talked about in previous podcasts, like they don't really have the finances at this point to go out. and sign that next guy in order to put next to Luca Donchish.

Like, you're kind of hoping a Sterling Brown, a Reggie Bullock takes a next step, or at the very least, is the type of player that can really help Luca out. And the one guy I'm kind of fascinated in is Jillen Brunson, who had a pretty spectacular regular season, but then was complete dog shit in the postseason. So I really wonder, like, who do they have there? Do they have, like, a perfect caddy for Luca Donchich? and the postseason he just kind of like got knocked on his ass and like it was just a one-time thing.

I believe it was his first playoff season series. Or is he not going to be that type of guy? Because it would be nice if they had some internal development beyond just like a Dorian Finney Smith becoming a starter. Like someone taking the step from starter to like a very good Fred Van Vleet style contributor. Yeah, they need more from Brunson. They could really use just more even play from Tim Horne. Hardaway Jr. He's kind of an off or on kind of kind of shooter in a lot of games. There's, there's a lot to be worked with there. But I like what you said, Justin, about the way

kid and his successes as a coach kind of aligns with these weird, atypical, apositional players like a Janus. I remember in Brooklyn, he was doing some really creative things with like where Sean Livingston was on the court, for example, another kind of big guard. Lucas skill set is so different. But I think there's something in the DNA of that in terms of, okay, we had this, this very strange player in terms of size and skill set. How can we best deploy him? How can we best hide him? How can we best use what he's good at defensively versus, you know, concealing it?

I think there is something to work with there for kid. We have to hope he kind of leans into that side of it more than, you know, some of his more destructive instincts. Certainly. I also think there's a good possibility that if Luca comes to training camp motivated and like full of good vibes from all of his hookahs season affairs and like, like he just blows everybody on the water because he's clearly a top five guy and like those guys just dominate when they want to.

Let that man smoke Shisha in peace in the off season with his queen. Jesus Christ. All he's ever done is produce all NBA level MVP type of seasons in his freaking career. Give him a freaking break. All I heard was writers trying to pitch the I'm going to go smoke hook hook at the bar where Luca was story. That's like good. I want to hear that one after this.

All right, let's wrap it there. We'll be back next week for Rob, for Wise, for Sasha Ashall on production. We'll see it.